Large Normal 223 | New Beginnings | GAME OVER

[Billy Pilgrim]

I already told Cliff my answer.

Where, and what's your answer?

[Billy Pilgrim]

So tomorrow, assuming the kill doesn't get blocked we'd be at 13 people. What's a standard amount of scum for a game this big? I'm pretty confident that we're not in multi ball, and theres probably not a vig. I think the odds on exactly one of them getting blocked each night is just a bit weird.

[Cliff Booth]

Need an answer.

[Rick Dalton]

Rick do I townread you

Rick do I townread you

You should, yes. But like, just say you don’t because they’re gonna push some weird stuff.

This happened early day 2, AFTER I claimed loyal doctor.

I didn’t get anything, and I feel like you have been pushing it like I should have, or you were just waiting for something to play off of it until it was convenient.

[Rick Dalton]

If you’re sticking with that loyal claim, I know for a fact you didn’t target me, so idk why you held everything up that way.

[EeveeLution Army]

So tomorrow, assuming the kill doesn't get blocked we'd be at 13 people. What's a standard amount of scum for a game this big? I'm pretty confident that we're not in multi ball, and theres probably not a vig. I think the odds on exactly one of them getting blocked each night is just a bit weird.

more than likely 6. though since a traitor flipped it could have been 7.

so rn we are probably at 6 or 5.

[EeveeLution Army]

making tomorrow plylo

[Cliff Booth]

I'm a simple loyal fruit vendor. I sent fruit to jjd on n1, billy n2, and bob n3.

[Hectic]

So tomorrow, assuming the kill doesn't get blocked we'd be at 13 people. What's a standard amount of scum for a game this big? I'm pretty confident that we're not in multi ball, and theres probably not a vig. I think the odds on exactly one of them getting blocked each night is just a bit weird.

more than likely 6. though since a traitor flipped it could have been 7.

so rn we are probably at 6 or 5.

6 or 7 scum seems like way too many for 21 players.
The wiki states that the formula for a balanced game is number of town = 3(number of scum)+1

So 5 fits perfectly in this case.

Also, I'm a Survivor, so take that into account for balance, since my role could technically be anti-town if in the hands of some fiend.

[Hectic]

I'm a simple loyal fruit vendor. I sent fruit to jjd on n1, billy n2, and bob n3.

So you lied about being Simple?
Why?

[Hectic]

I mean regardless, Cliff still dies for lying about receiving fruit from JJD.
I for one have read the wiki page on Lynch all Liars.
Going back and examining the people on the Cliff/JJD wagons should be very useful after Cliff flips.

[Rick Dalton]

Boring. I was ready to go off on a 1v1.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Hectic, under your formula 3(5)+1=16. 6 would fit better 3(6)+1=19.

I'm curious because I'm wondering if we can give Cliff another night to confirm another VT. But if theres 6 scum, then tomorrow is LYLO and Cliff cant make LYLO.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Although why didnt he mention simple earlier. I mean that makes the negative town utility discussion with the nea thing make more sense, but why did he lie about getting fruit?

[Billy Pilgrim]

I think I believe this claim. I feel like a jackass for lynching JJD yesterday, but for some reason (probably because I got to eat some lovely strawberries) I think this may be real, and if tomorrow isnt LYLO then we could potentially get another confirmed vt.

[Cliff Booth]

I think with having as many conftown as we do (and will once I flip) it's better to just get rid of me now because the scumtean looks relatively obvious

[Cliff Booth]

tex, titus, kop are 99% scum. at least one of hectic/hopkirk are likely to be scum as well. Aaron likely could be, less sure on that. one of RD/eevee probably is and I would say garmr would be my last consideration but my gut is coming around to him town

[Cliff Booth]

I haven't really done as much scum hunting as I'd hoped. Not used to games of this size and I find it overwhelming. But that's about where my head is at.

I think I'm probably the last FV and having a disloyal complex FV with a simply loyal FV was just meant to make results screwy.

[texcat]

I'm a simple loyal fruit vendor. I sent fruit to jjd on n1, billy n2, and bob n3.

Isn't this the same claim you made 30 pages ago? I thought you had some new secret info you were going to reveal.

[AaronFrost]

We probably have 5 scum at the most, counting the dead traitor, so 4 remaining.

[AaronFrost]

I feel like scum is fine with Cliff being the lynch. I thi k that's either because he was determined to be able to be sacrificed, which is consistent with what happened yesterday, or it's because he is going to flip town. If he flips scum, then texcat is probably leading scum candidate tomorrow for trying to redirect the lynch. If he flips town I dont know where that leads us. I'd like a a swer from hopkirk on his progression vis-a-vis me and I think we're still waiting on answers from Rick and Lilly about fruit.

Huh? I did park my vote on Garmr while waiting to vote for Cliff until everyone had a chance to post. I would hardly characterize that as redirecting the lynch.

VOTE: Cliff L-2 I think

Cliff

, if you are town, can you confirm that you sent fruit to Kop on N1? He said he did not receive any fruit.

Don't like this vote either.

[AaronFrost]

I'm a simple loyal fruit vendor. I sent fruit to jjd on n1, billy n2, and bob n3.

So what was the point of asking everyone whether they received fruit N1?

[profii]

VOTE: cliff

[profii]

So cliff didnt pursue a guilty on day 2

Then decided to call it a guilty

Then lied about getting fruit

I'd be naive to think cliff just didnt get his role up until after JJD died so I'm voting, even if he is town, we get some innos and we remove the liability as cliff will always be doubted

I suspect something else entirely is going on so lets flip him

[davesaz]

For balance purposes, a traitor counts as 1/2 (at least the way I figure it). So 5 scum plus 1 traitor (5.5) would be a reasonable starting number with weaker town roles. 6 scum (total 6.5) balances better against stronger town roles. Neither of those data points takes possible scum roles into account, so a relatively strong town could pair against a slightly stronger 5 person scum, or a slightly less strong 6 scum.

From what is revealed we have relatively few vanilla. It might be worth asking if "Town Macho" would be complex for the purpose of a simple FV. Bob's claim to receive fruit is much weaker than Billy's. The 1v1 yesterday with JJD's flip required there to either be another FV or Cliff to be either simple or unmodified FV -- JJD didn't get fruit which meant simple by itself or loyal by itself wouldn't be possible. Cliff had already quasi-crumbed nea and Billy had already claimed vanilla so that vend is straightforward. Bob had not claimed pre-n3. Of course this whole paragraph depends on Cliff being town. Cliff scumflip doesn't cast much doubt on Billy.

There are quite a few potential confirmables in the setup, and a fair number of flipped investigatives too with more claimed.
JJD's role was a scum PR finder. This implies at least one, perhaps multiple goons to yield false negatives. Nonetheless it's a strong vs strong game unless the traitor was the only intended target for JJD. Existence of another FV is pretty much required, to trigger people claiming fruit which gives the disloyal FV a chance to smoke out a target.

Existence of so many motion related PRs indicates a possible ninja role. No motion results (went nowhere etc) can be false with a ninja, in case there are any motion related results that people are holding as clears.

I'm actually torn on Cliff. He's handling this day exactly the way he should, but it's the right way for either alignment. The setup needing a 2nd FV to make JJD's role work doesn't require that role to be a specific alignment, so that doesn't help at all.