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[profii]

A point for discussing then
UNVOTE:

I'm pretty torn too

It kinda makes sense that as a simple, cliff didnt push his guilty on day 2

It's annoying and reckless that he did on day 3 to the loss of JJD

It's also feasible that in the JJD vs Cliff bit, cliff guessed he got a fruit which makes all claims reconcile properly thus far



So given it all adds up and a few people have said they are not sure I think we have to choose today:

We agree cliff is a simple FV and he systematically clears and simple roles day by day and we trust it... if we dont fully agree this, he will be left alive to create doubt so as town we need a united front to get scum to kill him, verifying everything- we need to be willing to trust him in lylo


Alternatively we lynch him and either get 1 scum or 2 innos which isnt a bad deal


Third outsider possibility, we ask the vig to kill so we can lynch better today and verify our innos tomorrow


If we dont all commit to trusting cliff all the way then it wont work imo

[Cliff Booth]

That's a tall order sir I need to die

[Hectic]

Hectic, under your formula 3(5)+1=16. 6 would fit better 3(6)+1=19.

I'm curious because I'm wondering if we can give Cliff another night to confirm another VT. But if theres 6 scum, then tomorrow is LYLO and Cliff cant make LYLO.

There's 21 players this game.
So 5 scum and 16 town fit the formula is what I mean.
But davesaz is right, traitor means it's probably 6 scum, so 5 alive right now.

[Hectic]

All this reluctance to lynch Cliff is making me more confident on his death. We can't guarantee we have a vig and that scum doesn't have a doctor.
Cliff still gets banished to the abyssal wiki today.

[Hectic]

Came across a nice term on the HowStuffWorks wiki today: Occam's Razor.

Is it more likely that this is Cliff's "biggest fuckup to date", or is he just scum?

[EeveeLution Army]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... %27s_Razor

[Hectic]

What do you think, Eevee?

[EeveeLution Army]

Hectic, under your formula 3(5)+1=16. 6 would fit better 3(6)+1=19.

I'm curious because I'm wondering if we can give Cliff another night to confirm another VT. But if theres 6 scum, then tomorrow is LYLO and Cliff cant make LYLO.

There's 21 players this game.
So 5 scum and 16 town fit the formula is what I mean.
But davesaz is right, traitor means it's probably 6 scum, so 5 alive right now.

i like how i said the same thing with the same reasoning, was called incorrect. dave says it and is correct. explain

[Billy Pilgrim]

I think that usually, it's that Cliff is scum. I think that the way Cliff has played post-admission of lie means this isnt a situation where there are less assumptions to establish Cliff as scum.

@Dave, I need you to help me through why Bob's claim gets less weight. As I remember, Cliff just asked everyone who got fruit. Bob said he did and Cliff then confirmed he had sent it. I dont see why that gets less weight.

The way I see it is as follows (for this analysis let's assume Cliff flips as claimed)
If Cliff is the role he says he is we have 4 townies confirmed - Dave (conf by mod), Carc (flipped pr conf), me and Bob by receiving fruit.

I am basically treating Profii as conf!town because it would have defeated the traitor mechanic to put Gobble in a neighborhood with scum.

That means that scum is within (Kop, Rick, Hectic, Eevee, Titus, Hop, Garmr, Aaron, and tex)

I believe Cliff. I think that Profii does. I think that Dave does. That's three of my high townreads that buy that this is the wrong lynch. I think some of the push on Cliff may be coming from scum to avoid having another conf!townie when he flips.

We have 15 players at the moment. The speculation seems to be 5 scum, which means 9 town. If that's true we have 2 days before LYLO assuming 2 mislynches. I'd trust Cliff in LYLO at this point, because I cant see scum motivation outside of anger play but the lie. And I dont know why he chooses a 1v1 there with a weak pr. And I dont see a scum motivation in basically begging for his lynch. So I'm good with him.

I think that now may be a good time for mass claim and we could actually get either some guilty or conf!townie results from Cliff tomorrow. It also gives us enough time before LYLO to either check some of those PR claims and if we keep Cliff alive to check the VT claims as well.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

VC 2.9

Cliff Booth - (6):

bob3141, AaronFrost, Titus, Carcalilly, Hectic, texcat

texcat (1):

Cliff Booth

Not Voting:

Billy Pilgrim, Garmr, Hopkirk, Koo, Rick Dalton, EeveeLution Army, davesaz, profii

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-04 05:42:21)

[Billy Pilgrim]

Actually let me match this a second, then I probably won't post for at least 12 hours.

Assuming 5 scum, we have today and tomorrow to mislynch. I'm basically considering 5 people as conf!town. So theres 4 more townies in that pool of 9 I identified earlier. So we're probably to the point that scum is not gonna kill in that pool unless we give them a reason to, like 1 of them claims a PR. And we have at least 1 town or that can investigate the claimed prs and 1 1 town pr that can investigate the claimed VTs. If we keep Cliff alive, he can investigate at least one of the VT claims.

Assuming we mislynch, scum kill a conf!townie and Cliff gets an inno, then we're at 5 conf!townies and the lynch pool is down to 7 with all five scum there.

If we mislynch, and Cliff gets a guilty, we only have 4 conf!townies, but we have a guaranteed kill for LYLO or we could lynch that that day.

Look, if we trust Cliff (which I do) town can basically PoE this for a win. If we force a mass claim now, i think it enhances our chances.

I think we should mass claim. I already claimed, so did Profii, Cliff, and Garmr. If I have a choice, i want to popcorn to texcat.

On a side note, did Garmr claim n3 target?

[EeveeLution Army]

im willing to claim when asked, though i understand if u wanna wait for texcat. since my claim could effect his if he was scum, though note i did soft my claim a long time ago. it wasnt that good of a soft. but it exists

[Garmr]

Actually let me match this a second, then I probably won't post for at least 12 hours.

Assuming 5 scum, we have today and tomorrow to mislynch. I'm basically considering 5 people as conf!town. So theres 4 more townies in that pool of 9 I identified earlier. So we're probably to the point that scum is not gonna kill in that pool unless we give them a reason to, like 1 of them claims a PR. And we have at least 1 town or that can investigate the claimed prs and 1 1 town pr that can investigate the claimed VTs. If we keep Cliff alive, he can investigate at least one of the VT claims.

Assuming we mislynch, scum kill a conf!townie and Cliff gets an inno, then we're at 5 conf!townies and the lynch pool is down to 7 with all five scum there.

If we mislynch, and Cliff gets a guilty, we only have 4 conf!townies, but we have a guaranteed kill for LYLO or we could lynch that that day.

Look, if we trust Cliff (which I do) town can basically PoE this for a win. If we force a mass claim now, i think it enhances our chances.

I think we should mass claim. I already claimed, so did Profii, Cliff, and Garmr. If I have a choice, i want to popcorn to texcat.

On a side note, did Garmr claim n3 target?

Yeah hopkirk and no result. I thought because hopkirk claimed to have a investigative role of sorts it would attract a scum role if he wasn't killed.

[Garmr]

Actually let me match this a second, then I probably won't post for at least 12 hours.

Assuming 5 scum, we have today and tomorrow to mislynch. I'm basically considering 5 people as conf!town. So theres 4 more townies in that pool of 9 I identified earlier. So we're probably to the point that scum is not gonna kill in that pool unless we give them a reason to, like 1 of them claims a PR. And we have at least 1 town or that can investigate the claimed prs and 1 1 town pr that can investigate the claimed VTs. If we keep Cliff alive, he can investigate at least one of the VT claims.

Assuming we mislynch, scum kill a conf!townie and Cliff gets an inno, then we're at 5 conf!townies and the lynch pool is down to 7 with all five scum there.

If we mislynch, and Cliff gets a guilty, we only have 4 conf!townies, but we have a guaranteed kill for LYLO or we could lynch that that day.

Look, if we trust Cliff (which I do) town can basically PoE this for a win. If we force a mass claim now, i think it enhances our chances.

I think we should mass claim. I already claimed, so did Profii, Cliff, and Garmr. If I have a choice, i want to popcorn to texcat.

On a side note, did Garmr claim n3 target?

Yeah hopkirk and no result. I thought because hopkirk claimed to have a investigative role of sorts it would attract a scum role if he wasn't killed.

By no result I mean no one visted him not a action fail just to clarify before a misunderstanding happens. The wording was "Did not see anything."

[Hectic]

Guess I reconsidered, Eevee. But I think it's the lower end (6 total).

[EeveeLution Army]

ye could be

[Hopkirk]

@Cliff: I'm seeing something that makes me think this is plausible. Did you soft anywhere else?

@Hectic: how are you reading Titus?

[Hopkirk]

And I'm looking at a yes or no on that Cliff.

[Hopkirk]

I'm only lynching in (Cliff/Eevee/Titus) unless we have results.
Titus would be viable here.

[Hopkirk]

Aaron is not scum if Cliff is scum based on votecounts.

The strategy of keeping Cliff alive requires 2 or 3 more VT claims right?

If Bob claims not-VT we auto lynch Cliff obviously.

[Hopkirk]

Vig would have shot if we have one.

We have enough confirmed town massclaiming and coordinating to prove actions might be reasonable.

Eevee/Titus first then I'm happy to claim.

[AaronFrost]

I'm cool with popcorn style mass claim.

tex is next Billy popcorned them, then tex picks someone and we keep on going.

I'm almost certain we don't have a vig.

[texcat]

Actually let me match this a second, then I probably won't post for at least 12 hours.

Assuming 5 scum, we have today and tomorrow to mislynch. I'm basically considering 5 people as conf!town. So theres 4 more townies in that pool of 9 I identified earlier. So we're probably to the point that scum is not gonna kill in that pool unless we give them a reason to, like 1 of them claims a PR. And we have at least 1 town or that can investigate the claimed prs and 1 1 town pr that can investigate the claimed VTs. If we keep Cliff alive, he can investigate at least one of the VT claims.

Assuming we mislynch, scum kill a conf!townie and Cliff gets an inno, then we're at 5 conf!townies and the lynch pool is down to 7 with all five scum there.

If we mislynch, and Cliff gets a guilty, we only have 4 conf!townies, but we have a guaranteed kill for LYLO or we could lynch that that day.

Look, if we trust Cliff (which I do) town can basically PoE this for a win. If we force a mass claim now, i think it enhances our chances.

I think we should mass claim. I already claimed, so did Profii, Cliff, and Garmr. If I have a choice, i want to popcorn to texcat.

On a side note, did Garmr claim n3 target?

Are you all forgetting that JJD had a guilty on Cliff? Are we forgetting that Cliff did nothing about JJD until he got pressed? I also don't like Cliff's tactic today of wait, wait don't lynch me yet, I've got something important to say, I'll tell you what really happened ...... oh, it's the same thing I already told you. I think he's scum, but even if he's town, he needs to go so that we can confirm Billy and Bob.

[davesaz]

@Dave, I need you to help me through why Bob's claim gets less weight. As I remember, Cliff just asked everyone who got fruit. Bob said he did and Cliff then confirmed he had sent it. I dont see why that gets less weight.

scum!Bob could know he was Cliff's target if scum have a role like watcher or tracker, or even voyeur for that matter. Or he could guess he'd be the target as someone who hadn't claimed a role, since Cliff can only target simple. It's risky, but scumteam are in a very good place and even better if they get someone "confirmed".

We didn't even know for sure there was a FV in play when you initially claimed receiving it. Scum could still know from N1 results, granted, but the probability is much less than it is when they know who to examine N3.

[texcat]

I'm cool with popcorn style mass claim.

tex is next Billy popcorned them, then tex picks someone and we keep on going.

I'm almost certain we don't have a vig.

I think we should postpone the claim until Day 5, but am willing to start if our conf town (Dave, Profii, Carca) think it's better to claim now.