Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]

[TDC]

Whatever.

Anyway, just in case we don't lynch clammy and so I don't forget, this is the list I would use:

clammy
charter
Fark
Alabaska
Tekk
RR
Korlash

[charter]

RR's math is a little off, but he still has the right idea. The problem is we have no clue as to Aimless's sanity. I won't speculate, because regardless of it:

Scum -
Zeek/TDC
Clammy/Fark/Charter
Anyone else

I don't think Clammy has an 83% chance of being scum, I think it's the same as me and Fark's, but I could be wrong, I just woke up a little bit ago.

However, this assumes that both Zeek and TDC aren't scum and this is a plot of theirs (if it is all the better)

vote zeek

[Farkshinsoup]

Sorry, Charter, but RR has the right idea. We need to keep Zeek and TLC alive today so that the one who is scum will have to back themselves into more of a corner. If they are both scum, then they will both be backed into that corner, and we will have more ammo later on. If one is town, then he may well get to live another day and give us another investigation. If we lynch either Zeek or TLC then both of them will for sure be dead by tomorrow morning.

I need to actually write this out on paper so that I can understand it, but right now Clammy is looking like a good lynch to me.

I'm curious to hear what Zeek thinks about all this.

[ZeekLTK]

Okay, I outlined why investigating Aimless was the best idea - because it eliminates scenarios in which someone has two different results on multiple people - meaning any of the three could be scum.

Instead, it creates situations where one of two people is scum, and that's it. There is no third person involved because the third person is already confirmed town (Aimless).

@RR: I investigated TDC on Night 0 because I had just played a game with him and I hadn't played with anyone else from this game (well, I played with Skruffs too but he replaced in after I sent my choice for TDC).

But anyways, back to the main point. How could I possibly be scum after advocating this plan all day and explaining how it makes it impossible for scum to fake claim without being caught? And then you think that I would fake claim? Seriously?

TDC just saw that I had outted him, so he of course is going to try to confuse the town by claiming to have the same result and saying that I'm the scum. It's his only hope to survive at least one more night and also try to get a useful cop lynched - oh wouldn't that be great for the scum, have the town kill a useful cop that they KNOW is useful. Geez.

And then after his claim he's trying to divert us to lynch someone who's not even involved in this. Because he knows if he pushes for me to get lynched, then *if* somehow I do that after I come up town he's screwed. If he keeps me alive then there is still doubt about him being scum, but as soon as I die it's over for him.

I hit scum, I want to lynch scum... that's the whole point of the game. He "claims" he hit scum, but has no interest in pursuing it, and would rather lynch someone else that no one currently alive has investigated... yeah right.

[charter]

But anyways, back to the main point. How could I possibly be scum after advocating this plan all day and explaining how it makes it impossible for scum to fake claim without being caught? And then you think that I would fake claim? Seriously?

How can you possibly expect this argument to hold water? I'm not going to argue this because you absolutely won't budge, but this is horribly flawed reasoning.

[TDC]

Actually, I'm voting you.

But I can see how this is a tough decision for the town to make and that clammy in that respect is a better choice, since it gives another investigation that will show that I'm town and you're scum. (And who knows, I'll likely out one of your partner's that way, or at least confirm someone else).

This is why you fear RR's plan (yeah, it's RR's plan, not mine, btw).

[Farkshinsoup]

Zeek is erratic but more convincing, TDC is reasonable but seems more scummy.

Let's get back to RR's plan, it makes a lot of sense. We all know now that either TDC or Zeek is scum, so fine, let's move on. We can lynch you guys later.

Charter, it's clear that you think zeek is scum, you've been saying it from the moment you replaced in. I'd prefer, since you are 1 of the 3 members of this circle of suspicion, for you to comment on that.

[clammy]

Well, good to know you're all thinking of me.

I don't think Clammy has an 83% chance of being scum, I think it's the same as me and Fark's

This is both correct and incorrect. _If_ Aimless is/was sain then based on the information at hand the chance of my being scum is greatly increased over charter and Fark, on the other hand, if Aimless was otherwise then the chances are the same based on the information we have.

Chances that Aimless is sane are 33%, he could be both insane or paranoid, and the mistake being made here is to ignore that if Paranoid the same guilty would show on either charter or Fark, and that if insane the innocent/innocents amongst us would also show up guilty.

RR's mistake is that he forgets that Aimless may have been able to obtain up to three guilty results on the trio of us, but only mine could be revealed to the town. This does not make it Aimless' only guilty.

Un-skew the figures again and we discover that Fark is as good to go here as any, and if i go back to my D1 feel and the strong reaction from him to jump on my wagon and leave one of his scum partners (Zeek and TDC; at least one of whom is scum) alive to D3 i find him most likely at this point.

That said, i believe we should lynch 1-for-1 amongst Zeek and TDC, because doing so tomorrow doesn't help our chances when LyLo is considered.

Vote: Zeek

I don't like his hint at the reveal in #443 and the use of this at reveal time to try to jump the gun on TDC's lynch. I don't like his controlling manner throughout the game, i acknowledge i find his wordiness and eagerness highly annoying, but #443 sounds very like excited scum anxious to go at his plan with TDC.[/i]

[Farkshinsoup]

If_ Aimless is/was sain then based on the information at hand the chance of my being scum is greatly increased over charter and Fark

If Aimless was sane, then there is a 100% chance that you are scum, since he investigated you and found you guilty. Way to fudge the facts.

Chances that Aimless is sane are 33%, he could be both insane or paranoid, and the mistake being made here is to ignore that if Paranoid the same guilty would show on either charter or Fark, and that if insane the innocent/innocents amongst us would also show up guilty.

RR's mistake is that he forgets that Aimless may have been able to obtain up to three guilty results on the trio of us, but only mine could be revealed to the town. This does not make it Aimless' only guilty.

What? Aimless only investigated you before he was NK'd, so yes, it is his only guilty result. And ultimately, Aimless's sanity is not the main reason why one of us should be lynched today - it's that by process of elimination, one of us is scum. Luckily, you're making this decision a lot easier by making scummy posts like that.

That having been said, if you turn up scum, that would let us know that Aimless was sane, which will also help us to further narrow down who is lying about their roles.

I also noticed that you hopped on the Zeek wagon.

By keeping both Zeek and TDC alive today, it puts scum in a very awkward position. Either they kill one of them, thereby giving us a 100% lynch for tomorrow, or they leave a confirmed cop alive, giving him another night's investigation. Now if they are both scum (very unlikely, but possible, we should be able to figure that out later on as well, as we will have more confirmed cops).

I think that clammy wants zeek dead so that he can a) stay alive and b) avoid the above situation.
Lastly, since I know that I'm town, it makes me that much more convinced that you are scum.

Vote:clammy

Zeek, in case you do get lynched, please do up a reveal order for us just like TDC did.

[Farkshinsoup]

EBWOP, It should read:

Now if they are both scum (very unlikely, but possible), we should be able to figure that out later on as well, as we will have more confirmed cops.

[TDC]

Also, I reiterate and broaden my request:
Can Alabaska, Tekk, RR and Korlash (at most one of these four is scum) agree on a claim list and direct the investigations of Zeek, I, charter and Fark (if need be dependent on clammy's alignment) for the clammy-lynch-case.

[charter]

I too noticed his fact skewing and Zeek wagon hopping. I don't think Fark is scum, so that leaves me with clammy.

I hate jumping on board without contributing, but Fark gives about every reason to vote for clammy. Now that I think about it, there really isn't a downside to leaving Zeek/TDC alive tonight (if clammy turns out to be scum).

unvote
vote clammy

[charter]

Also, I reiterate and broaden my request:
Can Alabaska, Tekk, RR and Korlash (at most one of these four is scum) agree on a claim list and direct the investigations of Zeek, I, charter and Fark (if need be dependent on clammy's alignment) for the clammy-lynch-case.

I agree with this. I don't see any way that there is more than one scum in that four, so I don't think it would be too heavily scum influenced.

[Farkshinsoup]

Also, I reiterate and broaden my request:
Can Alabaska, Tekk, RR and Korlash (at most one of these four is scum) agree on a claim list and direct the investigations of Zeek, I, charter and Fark (if need be dependent on clammy's alignment) for the clammy-lynch-case.

I agree with this. I don't see any way that there is more than one scum in that four, so I don't think it would be too heavily scum influenced.

Agreed.

[TDC]

Okay, just went over it again, these are all possible scum teams at this point:

(Zeek|TDC)+charter+Fark
(Zeek|TDC)+clammy+(charter|Fark|Alabaska|Tekk|RR|Korlash)
Zeek+TDC+(clammy|charter|Fark)

That's a total of 17 possible teams
Zeek and I are part of 10 teams each
clammy is part of 13 teams
charter and Fark are in 5, everyone else in 2.

Obviously from where I stand only 7 teams are possible, with Zeek being in all 7, clammy in 6, charter and Fark in 2 and everyone else in 1.

[TDC]

EBWOP: I've checked these by hand, because I hoped one of the four near-confirmed could maybe be cleared due to the investigations they have on each other. Such is not the case.

[Tekkactus]

The fact that any of you are voting for someone other than Zeek or TDC today screams scum. Since you guys love statistics, here are our options:

1) We pick the right one and lynch scum. This is always a good thing.

2) We pick the wrong one and lynch a Cop. This makes the other confirmed scum.

If the town investigates said confirmed scum, and combines it with the result they had on Aimless/Scruffs/Jenter, every protown player will be 100% certain of their sanity, AND we'll have a definite target for D3.

[Farkshinsoup]

The fact that any of you are voting for someone other than Zeek or TDC today screams scum. Since you guys love statistics, here are our options:

1) We pick the right one and lynch scum. This is always a good thing.

2) We pick the wrong one and lynch a Cop. This makes the other confirmed scum.

If the town investigates said confirmed scum, and combines it with the result they had on Aimless/Scruffs/Jenter, every protown player will be 100% certain of their sanity, AND we'll have a definite target for D3.

Tekk, remember there are 3 scum out there. We now know that TDC and/or Zeek is one of them. But that does not mean we have to lynch one of them today. When I first read RR's suggestion to do just that, I was very suspicious, but it does make sense. As I pointed out earlier, leaving them both alive makes things much harder for scum than if we picked one to lynch.

Because of all of the possible insane/paranoid cops, we also know where there are some liars. Do you not agree that either clammy, charter, or me are lying? Because of the results, it has to be the case.

I'll tell you that right now I am more sure that clammy is scum than I am of either TDC or Zeek. (meaning if I had to choose between the two, I'm not sure which way I would go) Now, of course, I have knowledge that you do not, namely that I am town, but you don't have to trust me. If clammy turns up town then you can come and get me tomorrow. Hell, if everyone finds me scummier, then lynch me and get him tomorrow. Either way it's a good plan.

Obviously, though I would prefer to lynch scum today.

[Raging Rabbit]

But anyways, back to the main point. How could I possibly be scum after advocating this plan all day and explaining how it makes it impossible for scum to fake claim without being caught? And then you think that I would fake claim? Seriously?

I think you could've fake claimed because you knew TDC investigated you and will investigate Aimless, and it's plausible for you, in case you're scum, to decide not to risk the 50% he's a useful cop and fake claim to get him lynched. Your play D1 play was pretty good in my opinion and I'd rather lynch TDC over you, but the point is I can't be sure.

The fact that any of you are voting for someone other than Zeek or TDC today screams scum. Since you guys love statistics, here are our options:

1) We pick the right one and lynch scum. This is always a good thing.

2) We pick the wrong one and lynch a Cop. This makes the other confirmed scum.

...Which is exactly why clammy's a better lynch. Our options with clammy:

1. Aimless was sane - (1/3, I was a bit off before) - clammy is 100% scum.
2. Aimless was paranoid (1/3) - two of clammy, Fark and charter are scum. (66%)
3. Aimlessis was insane (1/3) - Fark and charter are scum. (0%)

The average chance that clammy is scum (166:3) = 55.333%
Chance that Zeek/TDC are scum - 50%

What we gain by lynching clammy, in case he's town - we catch two scum, Fark and charter.

What we gain by lynching TDC/Zeek if they're town - we catch one scum, the other one.

Therefore, clammy's lynch is superior. (In additon, it gains us more time to investigate further and decide between Zeek and TDC.)

Clammy's latest post was also pretty scummy, I agree with Fark, and so was his lurk-ism day one. Regardless, he's an excellent lynch for statistical reasons.

[Raging Rabbit]

Claim order list in case we lynch clammy, as per TDC's request (and since I can't be sure when I'll have access again):

TDC
Zeek
charter
Tekk
Koralsh
Fark
Alabaska J
RR

Hell, if everyone finds me scummier, then lynch me and get him tomorrow. Either way it's a good plan.

Your lynch is worse because Aimless invetigated clammy, and not you. Therefore, your lynch doens't give us info on his sanity and won't confirm that the other two are scum in case you turn out town, only that one of them is.

[TDC]

Please also supply investigation targets, I would prefer if Zeek had a different target than me, for obvious reasons.

[Alabaska J]

Zeek is erratic but more convincing, TDC is reasonable but seems more scummy.

Let's get back to RR's plan, it makes a lot of sense. We all know now that either TDC or Zeek is scum, so fine, let's move on. We can lynch you guys later.

Charter, it's clear that you think zeek is scum, you've been saying it from the moment you replaced in. I'd prefer, since you are 1 of the 3 members of this circle of suspicion, for you to comment on that.

This is one of the best posts I have ever seen on this site. Congrats on being so logical, Fark.

vote: Clammy

.




As for the lists, I need to look over the investigations again. I think anyone who has investigated Zeek/TDC should investigate the other, for starters, if that applies to anyone.

[TDC]

Nobody has investigated either of us so far.

[TDC]

Also, this is L-1 if I'm right, don't hammer yet.

[Raging Rabbit]

Please also supply investigation targets, I would prefer if Zeek had a different target than me, for obvious reasons.

If clammy is guilty, you'll investigate charter and Zeek'll investigate Fark.

If he's innocent, you'll investigate Tekk and Zeek'll invetigate Koralsh. I don't think we need to assign investigations for the others.