Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Luca Blight]

SS, do you agree that Flubs should claim?

[Luca Blight]

It seems a fair suggestion, I have no problem with it.

[Luca Blight]

At the end of D1 the only thing that he talked about was Billy.

This is the only thing anyone wanted to ask me about.

I was the first person to actually case Billy (iirc). Why would I do that and then drop off just when the wagon started to get serious?

Haven’t had time to check back yet, but I thought you were just the first to vote Billy even though you didn’t scumread him? I was the one who cased/pushed Billy and I believe you became more interested as a result of that.

[Luca Blight]

So basically you were only going to take Rb’s reads into account if they were convenient for you, otherwise they’re irrelevant.

i think this is a remarkably uncharitable way to understand aaron's post, i don't think this is what he was saying at all

pedit no. weren't you on the nom wagon? plz get back on it, ty

I know it wasn’t what he said, as I explained already - but it was his mindset based on his progression. Frost was supposedly interested in rb’s reads until it turned out he was townreading Nom, at which point Frost disregarded them.

[Luca Blight]

Fetchd’s performance in this game reminds me of many games I’ve seen where a scum player does just enough to make himself townier than a pile of low activity posters to get the benefit of the doubt and ultimately win the game. I don’t want to lynch him today as he’s obviously a strong pr but I just wanted to put this on the record. Nothing about his actual play is making me think he is Town, only process of elimination is in his favour given the number of scumreads I currently have (which goes back to my original point).

[Luca Blight]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Nom

Out of my three main scumreads, you’re the one I’m expecting the most from and I’m not getting it atm.

[Luca Blight]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Nom

Out of my three main scumreads, you’re the one I’m expecting the most from and I’m not getting it atm.

I guess when I flip you'll understand that someone's activity has nothing to do with their alignment.

If there's one thing I'm not scumreading you for it's activity.

[Luca Blight]

I'm hoping PM gets replaced + extended deadline tbh. Even if he returns before his third prod I have no faith in him ever participating at a reasonable level, sorry to say.

Xayah really needs to pick it up as well. I wanted to have her sorted as Town today but she has done nothing at all, which is frustrating.

[Luca Blight]

Yes, it seems to happen a lot in games I play unfortunately. Not sure if I'm just unlucky in that regard or it's epidemic of this site, but I'm always battling against multiple lurkers/inactives every game. It's particularly frustrating this time round as a player would literally have to not post for at least half a day phase before getting replaced, and in reality it would probably be closer to three quarters of a day phase.

[Luca Blight]

I work 7 days a week and have to take care of my son during most of my free time, yet I still find little bits of time to keep up with the thread here and there on my phone.

Anyway, I'm reasonably content with my Nom vote. If she can produce something that looks decent then I could be tempted back onto Flubs instead. I think I'm willing to give Frost the benefit of the doubt for now, as some of his D1 stuff wasn't bad.

[Luca Blight]

Waiting the best part of a day phase for two players to be replaced isn't fun and is making me lose interest in this game.

[Luca Blight]

Thank God.

UNVOTE:

Welcome to the game, I'll give you time to catch-up.

[Luca Blight]

@Fetchd: Billy was very bussable in hindsight? Well of course anyone who flips scum is going to look more bussable after the event, but at the time I was hard pushing to lynch Billy no-one else wanted it and he had no other votes.

Just skimmed through but Wooper is feeling a lot townier recently. I think the remaining scum is Nom + Fetchd, but Adorable is a bit of an unknown quantity still. Getting townier vibes from Frost recently.

[Luca Blight]

It wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong about a read so I’m not too worried. You are definitely the best lynch today and I think the game will be solvable regardless of your flip.

[Luca Blight]

I agree with Wooper that Nom seems to be playing the 'non-survavalist' card, but it doesn't read true to me.

[Luca Blight]

She's trying to make us fearful of mislynching her, but her attitude doesn't match the game-state given we lynched scum D1 and can easily afford to call her on this 'non-survivalist' bluff.

[Luca Blight]

Also I get the feeling that Nom has a bit of an ego regarding her scum game, and would rather go out like this and be able to say '

I wasn't really trying

' than to try-hard and still lose. I get the feeling that would hurt her pride a bit.

[Luca Blight]

The one thing that's niggling me about nom is that she also picked 4 in the draft.

I'm not saying that being in a double pair with scum is inherently townie, *but* if scum did in fact double up on purpose for the wifom i'd kinda expect scum to be referencing that to try to make themselves townier when in trouble ... that's why they'd have doubled up in the first place

And nom isnt doing that here

But her play this phase has been so awful that i'm not sure that counteracts that

Part of the reason that it's objectively better that we lynch nom today. I'm sorry, but on the 0.0001% chance that nom does flip green, then her play has been far from townie and is not someone I think we should bring to lylo.

The other reason - nom claimed VT. I'm 5th highest on the draft. Who's more likely to be a strong PR?

If people want me to claim then I will, but I'd rather hold off until at least tomorrow.

Although this is bad, considering Frost's argument for

not

lynching Billy D1.

[Luca Blight]

I'm talking about Frost saying 'lynch Nom as she's less likely to be a PR', when on D1 his opinion was 'lynch Xayah over Billy, it doesn't matter who is more likely a PR'.

[Luca Blight]

I'm talking about Frost saying 'lynch Nom as she's less likely to be a PR', when on D1 his opinion was 'lynch Xayah over Billy, it doesn't matter who is more likely a PR'.

the goalposts have shifted
it went from {xayah, billy} to {nom, self}

sorry - i thought this was apparent when i suggested aaron is crumbing something

When Frost made the comments D1 he was the main wagon at the time.

[Luca Blight]

Btw I wasn't responding to you woth 1874, Wooper, I was continuing from my previous post.

[Luca Blight]

I thought Xayah was being replaced, but I've just noticed she's on V/LA.

If Nom flips green then I'm gonna feel pretty bad about that slot.

[Luca Blight]

Anyone know how many votes Nom has atm?

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: Nom

Now

L-1

again.

[Luca Blight]

It's also possible it could be Billy/Nom/Xayah actually.

Xayah needs looking at Tomorrow regardless of the flip, she can't coast as much as she has done D2.

[Luca Blight]

What gets me is that as Town, having lynched scum D1, I approach D2 excitedly to piece the rest of the puzzle together.

Nom, Fetchd and Xayah have been the opposite - almost negative in their outlook, which is something I can't relate to. Obviously at least one of them is Town, but there really is an unnatural feel about the three of them in how they've approached this day.

[Luca Blight]

If I had to place a bet right now I'd go for Nom/Xayah being the remaining scum.

It makes little sense how Nom suspected Xayah and then suddenly flipped this D1 when the Xayah wagon picked up.

Xayah quietly entered D2 voting the counter wagon, Frost, and saying she doesn't want a Nom lynch for a pretty nonsensical reason (that if Frost flips scum then it clears Nom, but wouldn't the opposite also apply?)

The only thing she has going for her is her Billy vote when the initial Billy wagon took off.

[Luca Blight]

I've played a little at MU under the same name, but not a lot.

[Luca Blight]

@Skitter: Nom suspected Xayah D1 but then was suddenly amazed that people were voting Xayah,

@Nom: I've seen a few posts from you saying or implying that your scum game is very good, so it's just a feeling I got.

[Luca Blight]

@Nom: That's fine, your lynch will help solve the game regardless, especially as you're not trying your best to solve it yourself.

[Luca Blight]

I'm not sure why mislynching you would be so funny, it's not like you're giving us cause to townread you particularly. It would just be a shame that you didn't give me more of a chance to read you correctly.

[Luca Blight]

We can look at Xayah tomorrow, I see no reason to suddenly change now.

[Luca Blight]

Lynch Nom and end the day imo

[Luca Blight]

My initial feeling is to lynch Frost today, but I need to read up again.

[Luca Blight]

I must say I’ve been curious for a while now about Flub’s role pick. Obviously he didn’t choose Sane Cop, and Fetchd has made it pretty obvious he must be the other nice-looking PR, so I’m left wondering what Flubs would have chosen as first pick if he were Town. As scum, choosing Roleblocker as first pick might not be too far-fetched.

[Luca Blight]

I also thought Xayah was killed by a vig, was waiting for a claim.

[Luca Blight]

I haven't read up yet but I agree to a mass-claim.

[Luca Blight]

i'm just kinda confused why your content dropped so hard from day1 to day2

Motivation to play dropped, I'll explain it later.

I'm feeling this too; waiting almost an entire day phase for two slots to be replaced has killed it a bit for me. Struggling to get the spark back atm.

[Luca Blight]

I'm leaning towards lynching Flubs before Frost, but I think we need a mass-claim to progress here.

I don't mind going first - I'm VT.

[Luca Blight]

I think you're making sense regarding SS, Wooper.

I don't think there was much harm in me claiming at it's pretty obvious I'm VT given my position on the list. I just want to get things in motion because the longer we're in this limbo the longer the game will stagnate.

[Luca Blight]

We’re mass-claiming and you’re up next.

Claim, please.

[Luca Blight]

I think Flubs has to be the lynch today now, he’s obviously never being NK.

Also, could it be possible rb targeted Flubs N1 and scum’s kill was blocked again?

[Luca Blight]

I think Flubs has to be the lynch today now, he’s obviously never being NK.

Also, could it be possible rb targeted Flubs N1 and scum’s kill was blocked again?

Uhhh maybe. Flub is still scum for lying in a mass claim in that situation.

I mean Flubs is a scum PGO and rb targeted him (which is likely) which means rb would be killed as a result.

Of course it’s possible scum would have targeted rb anyway, but I think it’s very likely rb investigated Flubs N1.

[Luca Blight]

Also, could it be possible rb targeted Flubs N1 and scum’s kill was blocked again?

Edge cases...

I mean it's just as possible Flubber is actually scum vig who made a second shot N1, and one of them was blocked.

I think Flubs as scum likely chooses pgo over vig given his play style. I know if I were a pr I’d have probably targeted him N1 as well, because he’s the sort of player that’s hard to read.

[Luca Blight]

Suji's next to claim, right?

[Luca Blight]

Or should I claim my picks

[Luca Blight]

I agree that mass-claim is more beneficial for Town here.

Although after Flubs’ claim I wouldn’t be opposed to lynching him now and finishing the mass-claim tomorrow, unless anyone has anything important that needs sharing.

[Luca Blight]

Thinking about it, pgo is a really strong role for scum. I can’t see Flubs being Town here.

[Luca Blight]

I haven’t claimed subs yet because Fetchd said to hold off for a bit.

[Luca Blight]

Primary: perfectionist vig

Secondary: night 2 vig

I didn’t put much thought into my picks as I knew it was very unlikely I’d get a PR.

[Luca Blight]

Claim now: your role and both picks you submitted.

[Luca Blight]

Skitter already answered you here:

I'm confused as to what I should do when it is my turn.

claim your role and then first and second pick

So I’m not sure why you’re still confused about it.

And the order is bottom up. I’ve claimed already, so you’re next, then Wooper will claim his second pick, then it’s Adorable’s turn etc.

[Luca Blight]

Kerset, time to claim.

[Luca Blight]

If for whatever reason I am alive for the night aaron should investigate me

You'll either get a result on me or a flip on a controversial slot

But we wouldn’t get a result on you regardless.

[Luca Blight]

Oh, just realised it’s 1-shot.

[Luca Blight]

Conditional Commuter means limited in some respect, right?

If so maybe Kerset could go into more details about this, when they commuted etc.

[Luca Blight]

So Frost has no gun, does that mean he's clear?

[Luca Blight]

Unless Skitter/Frost happen to be partners.

[Luca Blight]

Yes, I know he'd have a gun now but that's irrelevant.

Frost was one of the first to claim, so from your perspective he should be conf-town pretty much.

[Luca Blight]

so basically yeah i think he's clear

that's why i wasn't really interested in him yesterday

Yes, I was curious on your Frost flip. Makes sense now, I guess.

[Luca Blight]

Something-Smart, over to you.

[Luca Blight]

Doesn’t specify cops in the op though, looking back at it.

It’s risky not to crumb when if you were NK Frost could easily have been lynched the following day.

[Luca Blight]

Anyway, SS, Let's have your claim, please.

[Luca Blight]

Town: Skitter, SS,
Lean Town: Suji, Xayah, Frost, Kerset
Null-Town: Wooper
Null-scum: Flubs
Scum-lean: PM, Fetchd
Scum: Nom

That’s roughly where I’m at right now

P similar to mine, except for your leantown tier, i feel like those are all the people i'm still sorting

If i had to slot them, kerset is leantown,

frost is ~nullscum

, xayah is somewhere between nullscum and nulltown, and suji is ~nullscum too

You're obvtown and i would put ss down a level too

Explain this?

[Luca Blight]

Looking at your ISO from the start of D2, Skitter, you don't really push the Frost lynch anymore but there's nothing that would suggest you had a 'no gun' result on him.

You left no crumb and it's far from obvious given your comments about Frost on D2.

[Luca Blight]

i feel like it would have been obvious after i flipped given how i dropped the aaron read like a hot potato

gunsmith innos in this game aren't really hard innos; at that point i was still kinda scum-reading him on play but wasn't particularly interested in pushing him given the result, so he ended up ~nullscum

given the cop claim he's p much clear now tho

These two explanations are not compatible.

[Luca Blight]

These two explanations are not compatible.

i was referring to why i put him as ~nullscum there in particular

holistically i felt like the fact i dropped the read would make it obviosu in hindsight

'

There in particular

' was D2, after your result, and the very point I'd look back to see any 'crumb' you might have left behind. You may have not pushed Frost as much, but it is in no way obvious, looking back, that you had that result on him.

I realise 'no gun' isn't a hard inno, but considering the only way he could be scum in such a scenario is if he picked Doctor (and roleblocker is a better scum role imo) you should have at least accepted my Frost Town-lean rather than going out of your way to disagree with it. It doesn't make sense.

[Luca Blight]

SS, where's your claim? Let's keep this moving.

[Luca Blight]

These two explanations are not compatible.

i was referring to why i put him as ~nullscum there in particular

holistically i felt like the fact i dropped the read would make it obviosu in hindsight

'

There in particular

' was D2, after your result, and the very point I'd look back to see any 'crumb' you might have left behind.

You may have not pushed Frost as much, but it is in no way obvious, looking back, that you had that result on him.

I realise 'no gun' isn't a hard inno, but considering the only way he could be scum in such a scenario is if he picked Doctor (and roleblocker is a better scum role imo) you should have at least accepted my Frost Town-lean rather than going out of your way to disagree with it. It doesn't make sense.

i disagree, but ok
again, there i was referring to his play which i was decidedly not townreading

It's irrelevant how you're reading his play when you'd just received a 'no gun' result which almost clears him, and you'd want people to know your result in case you're NK.

There's something disingenuous about all of this.

[Luca Blight]

What was your motivation for this, SS?

If there's a governor, they should claim.

Also, rb was a really poor choice to investigate D1, imo.

[Luca Blight]

N1, rather.

[Luca Blight]

ok w/e nobody noticed

xayah wasn't the scum kill, i'm n2 vig

i thought that aaron was n2 vig

Skitter....explain this as well, please.

[Luca Blight]

Also, rb was a really poor choice to investigate N1, imo.

Well, obviously in retrospect.

But I didn't think so at the time? He wasn't townread barely at all.

Well I definitely TR him, and I'm pretty sure a few others did too. He was one of the few really active players on D1 who were trying to make things happen. He was also second in the draft and always likely to be killed early on.

Players like PM, Kerset, Nom, Frost existed...Even the likes of Fetchd, Wooper etc would have been a better choice.

rb is literally the last player I would have chosen to investigate on N1.

[Luca Blight]

The issue with UB is that scum are forced in to taking the useless cop bc it's a scum claim otherwise bc role cop is a trash role in this setup when you have a draft order and can generally guess who has what.

i'm not sure scum should be picking in that bracket at all tbh

i'm not sure i'm liking this claim from aaron

or, more accratley, i think he probably is the universal backup slot/pair/bracket but i'm not convinced he's a town one

This makes...no sense.

[Luca Blight]

If Skitter is scum then I need to reassess my reads a bit, as it seems distancing might have been more likely than I thought.

[Luca Blight]

For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.

[Luca Blight]

For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.

Where does the nk go in that situation. Is Xayah double shot?

Skitter might have tried to NK SS instead of investigating him.

[Luca Blight]

For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.

Do they both hard secure their team mate's death. Like skitter MADE billy the Lynch, p much singlehandedly. Which I can see. I feel like skitter probably coaches Suji and billy better than that.

Err, no, I made the Billy lynch single-handedly, not Skitter.

Suji jumped on when Billy was beyond saving.

[Luca Blight]

As you can see from this progression, I was the one who insitgated the Billy wagon when he had 0 votes and Xayah was the clear wagon:

Spoiler:

Xayah (5):

AaronFrost, rb, Wooper, Sirfetchd, Luca Blight

AaronFrost (3):

Xayah, skitter30, Kerset

Kerset (2):

Flubbernugget, nomnomnom

rb (1):

PMysterious

Not Voting (3):

Sujimichi, Billy Pilgrim, Something_Smart

With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-03 00:30:00)

@Xayah - if you vote Billy then I’ll join the wagon as well.

VOTE: Billy

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Billy

i endorse the billy wagon

VOTE: billy

I hate everything rb has said in the past couple of pages

@ss i missed your post where you reacted to rb calling you out, i guess. I distinctly remember thinking it was townie that you didnt respond to it

@luca /aaron - i will check out aaron's scumgame, i dont have motivation to do that sort of legwork just now, hopefully soon

I still dont want to lynch xayah today

[Luca Blight]

Fine.

VOTE: Flubs

I think that's

L-1

.

[Luca Blight]

Regarding the above, I haven’t checked for associatives yet but I have a feeling about Skitter/Suji, and they claimed the same brackets.

[Luca Blight]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Skitter

Think I feel more confident in this one right now. Want a little more time to consider things anyway.

[Luca Blight]

If Flubs is telling the truth then the most likely scenario i can see is someone attempting to NK SS, and Skitter is already claiming a night action on SS...

[Luca Blight]

If you commute/are jailed is it not the same result if you’re targeted by gunsmith/NK? Either way the action is unsuccessful, right?

SS, what is your opinion on what happened N2?

[Luca Blight]

Yes, Skitter in that game got lucky and literally guessed I was VT after fake-claiming role-cop, and that’s another reason I think she could have attempted to NK SS and claim an unsuccessful result instead.

Will catch up on the other posts in a bit.

[Luca Blight]

In the other game you literally guessed I was VT, and if you were wrong it would have confirmed you as scum.

That is riskier than claiming no result on SS.

[Luca Blight]

Skitter, your line that your play doesn’t make sense as scum doesn’t really wash when it doesn’t make sense as Town either.

I actually didn’t realise you were Mafia joat in that game, tbf. I didn’t read the private topics as i was pretty disgusted with how that ended.

I’m actually thinking it Flubs is Town then Fetchd is likely scum. Need to consider this for a sec.

[Luca Blight]

Maybe but not necessary. I think you could well be setting up lynches here.

I need to think things over more.

[Luca Blight]

Necessarily*

[Luca Blight]

I need to get on a computer to analyze everything properly (bloody thing has been updating for 3 hours) but regarding Skitter’s point that I should give her more credit as scum, you’re basically asking me to believe you’ve played terribly as Town, to not fully understand the pr you chose and to seemingly not have even read your role pm.

It’s puzzling to me that you think you made your Frost result ‘obvious’ in case you ate a NK, when you were not only still SL’ing him from D2 but you were actively disagreeing with me for TL’ing him. And not only that, after Frost’s claim, when he should have been 100% Town to you, you still stated that you didn’t think he was Town!

Am I to give you such little credit and believe you’re Town after all of this?

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: Flubs

Just because the mod’s around and I want to see a flip.

[Luca Blight]

Fos: Fetchd.

Will elaborate soon.

[Luca Blight]

We established at the end of the previous day that Town!Flubs meant Skitter was more likely town. Fetchd then blocks the best PR left which is just anti-Town in general, because even if we were to lynch Skitter today that info could have proven valuable.

VOTE: Fetchd

[Luca Blight]

Wooper isn’t ruled out either, but i think he’s Town atm.

Fetchd goes today. Still not sold on Skitter being Town but Fetchd is definitely my biggest scumread. I’ll go into more detail tomorrow.

[Luca Blight]

SS still has some good abilities left, so him being killed over Frost makes some sense.

Fetchd, presuming he’s scum, couldn’t block Frost as that would have been a scum claim, so he did the next best thing with the intention of Killing Frost during the next night phase.

[Luca Blight]

Also SS wouldn’t have just gone along with the Skitter lynch that Fetchd has been trying to set up, which gives another possible motive for the kill.

[Luca Blight]

And tbh I think JK is a role that benefits scum more than Town in this setup, while also not looking like an obviously scummy choice (like PGO).

I’ve had a bad feeling about Fetchd ever since he made his claim.

[Luca Blight]

Yes, I made that point already.

Regardless of his read on you, jailing the gunsmith claim in this setup is a terrible play and scum-motivated imo.

[Luca Blight]

I have a plan

[Luca Blight]

We lynch Fetchd today, there are then no more roleblockers in the game.

Skitter investigates Suji, Frost investigates Adorbs or Wooper.

Frost is most likely killed, but Skitter will have a result. If Fetchd flips green (unlikely) then we lynch Skitter to confirm the result.

Between Skitter/Fetchd there is surely at least one scum. By the time they're both dead the game is basically solved by PoE.

[Luca Blight]

We established at the end of the previous day that Town!Flubs meant Skitter was more likely town. Fetchd then blocks the best PR left which is just anti-Town in general, because even if we were to lynch Skitter today that info could have proven valuable.

VOTE: Fetchd

Why wouldn't Fetchd block me then? My power is arguably more useful than skitt's.

Why exactly does Flubb flipping town make skitter more likely to be town again?

If you were blocked then Fetchd would be confscum.

He might have got away with blocking Skitter as she was heavily scumread Yesterday.

[Luca Blight]

Yes, I made that point already.

Regardless of his read on you, jailing the gunsmith claim in this setup is a terrible play and scum-motivated imo.

Not if she is confirmed scum, which she is.

My other option was the jk ss or Aaron to try and block the kill but to block an investigative with lower scum chance than skit is a worse idea when there's only a 50% chance of protecting the right one.

The whole point of killing Flubs before Skitter was that we'd get another result from Skitter before we lynched her, and you denied us of that.

Skitter will still probably be lynched, but you have to go first.

[Luca Blight]

skitter30,
Wooper
Adorable
Sirfetchd,
Sujimichi,

There're two scum in these 5 players. Most probably 2 out of Fetchd/Suji/Skitter.

Skitter investigates Suji, Frost investigates Wooper/Adorable, then we are guaranteed at least one result. Skitter is the probably lynched regardless of Fetch's flip, but we will reassess first depending on the situation.

Other than that, I have nothing more to say. I'm 100% on lynching Fetchd today.

[Luca Blight]

If Fetchd flips scum then we have the luxury of lynching Skitter to confirm her result on Suji.

[Luca Blight]

Hell no
If we lynch fetch, then we are at lynch or lose tomorrow. Skitter result will be pointless. On other hand if fetch manages to block kill then we will have double result and no lylo.

Fetchd is literally the one who has put us in this situation by blocking Skitter last night. He is independently the most scummy player right now, and the JK power is dangerous in scum hands due to potential WIFOM.

If he flips green (big if) then we can reassess again Tomorrow with Skitter's result in hand.

[Luca Blight]

Deeper into the game it possibly could due to no-kill wifom.

If we lynch Skitter and she flips green, what’s the plan? Surely it’s better to have the info from th result regardless

And Fetchd has higher scum equity. He was the one trying actively to get Xayah lynched over Billy D1.

And his block on Skitter was very anti-Town because the info could have proven valuable: if she had a result on Fetchd we could have then lynched Skitter today to confirm Fetchd’s alignment tomorrow, or vice-versa. Skitter as scum was never likely to do the kill, so it seems an entirely scum-motivated maneuver by Fetchd. He could have chosen to block someone like Suji who is a claimed VT, also a dubious slot and more likely to perform the kill as scum.

[Luca Blight]

And look at this progression:

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

He went from this, to suddenly hard-SR’ing Skitter for the same thing.

He saw Flubs - Skitter as an easy path to LYLO, most likely.

[Luca Blight]

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

Ok yeah skit is probs scum here.

But you know who is even equally scummy? flub. We Lynch one, then the other and we win the game.

Game is over and we win, move it.

This progression, to now saying he blocked Skitter as she is ‘confscum’, is terrible.

[Luca Blight]

That was my progression, not his.

One moment he’s like ‘Why would Skitter lie about that’, next he’s like ‘Ok she’s probably scum’, and now it’s ‘she’s confscum’, all based on the same thing.

Why does the question ‘why would Skitter lie’ no longer exist in Fetchd’s head?

[Luca Blight]

Because it’s actually a fair question, one I’ve been trying to figure out myself.

[Luca Blight]

I was thinking the ‘lie’ in question was the general ‘not understanding the Frost situation’. I’ll have a look back over it tomorrow when I’m on a computer.

I still want to lynch Fetchd today regardless.

[Luca Blight]

I'm convinced Fetchd is the right lynch for today.

Up to you guys if you want to wait for his final thoughts.

[Luca Blight]

Just a reminder, Skitter should not investigate Wooper as he claimed vig.

Frost investigates Wooper or Adorable.

Skitter investigates Suji.

Hopefully this flips red and we have some breathing space, if not we'll have to reassess Tomorrow.

[Luca Blight]

Skitter, what was your result?

[Luca Blight]

A sane cop investigating a Goon gets a ‘guilty’ result.

[Luca Blight]

Ok, so Suji is now conf Town. Good stuff.

[Luca Blight]

I have another plan

[Luca Blight]

About to go out but will quickly summarize.

We no-lynch, Skitter investigates Adorable, then we’re left with 5 alive the game is basically solved. Either Skitter tells the truth and we lynch in Adorable/Wooper, if she lies then we lynch her in LYLO. If Skitter is NK then that’s fine as it saves lynching her.

[Luca Blight]

Do you really think that town!skitter would just survive up to tomorrow? Sounds like 1% chance.

The point is, we don’t know she is Town. If she eats the NK then it’s better than having to lynch her.

If we ML then Skitter could be kept alive for WIFOM reasons, as we’re then in a MYLO situation.

Right now my *gut feeling* is that Wooper is the final scum.

[Luca Blight]

I think Skitter’s Town tbh. I think if he lynch Wooper -> Adorable then the game is won.

[Luca Blight]

I’d never bus both of my partners so needlessly. I remember a game I played a while ago where I caught 3 scum and people then got paranoid and thought I was the fourth scum for being too accurate. I have the experience to know that bussing doesn’t get you unlimited towncred.

[Luca Blight]

I think No-Lynch is the best course of action here.

Either we lose a dubious slot, lose a conf town but gain another, or get a guilty and it's game, set and match. We'd also still have two bites at the cherry.

[Luca Blight]

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74053

I hard-pushed the D1 lynch on scum (similar to this game) and played a big part in the next two scum lynches. People then got paranoid about me as it was a nightless game where scum can't NK, but we still managed to win.

[Luca Blight]

If I were going to gamble then I'd go ahead and lynch Wooper today, as I think he's the last scum.

No-lynch is the safer option, however. From my PoV is actually guarantees a won game, if others trust that I'm Town.

[Luca Blight]

I'm getting

'despondent scum'

vibes from Wooper's recent posting tbh. I'm very tempted to lynch there today, but no-lynch is the safer play.

VOTE: No-Lynch

If Wooper is indeed scum then he isn't winning this game anyway, and no-lynch gives us a bit of insurance.

[Luca Blight]

What are you currently thinking, Kerset?

[Luca Blight]

Skitter, what do you have for us?

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: Wooper

L-1 I think.

[Luca Blight]

I agree, but hopefully there will be no more night phases.

[Luca Blight]

I would have no objections, Wooper is definitely today’s Lynch regardless.

[Luca Blight]

Fmpov Skitter must be the last scum, then. Everyone request a fast night please so we can finish this.

[Luca Blight]

Nope, I don't.

VOTE: Skitter

I think this should be a pretty simple decision. I'll post more in a bit.

[Luca Blight]

The fact that I pushed hard to lynch Fetchd instead of Skitter, and then had the plan of keeping Skitter alive so she could clear other Townies before LYLO, when she could have investigated me at any time, should show that I'm Town.

[Luca Blight]

For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.

Do they both hard secure their team mate's death. Like skitter MADE billy the Lynch, p much singlehandedly. Which I can see. I feel like skitter probably coaches Suji and billy better than that.

Posts like these are what first made me suspect a Fetchd/Skitter team.

It was clearly me who hard-pushed the Billy lynch, but Fetchd kept trying to give Skitter the credit for it despite supposedly scumreading Skitter.

[Luca Blight]

Do you really think that town!skitter would just survive up to tomorrow? Sounds like 1% chance.

The point is, we don’t know she is Town. If she eats the NK then it’s better than having to lynch her.

If we ML then Skitter could be kept alive for WIFOM reasons, as we’re then in a MYLO situation.

Right now my *gut feeling* is that Wooper is the final scum.

given the ~ruckus~ about me this game i'm honestly not sure i get nk'd here; i think last scum needs me alive to push me as a mislynch

In her position Skitter, as Town, would have felt more at risk of being the NK, given she literally had the power to clear a Townie or end the game with a guilty with two lynches to spare.

As Kerset said before, Skitter gets NK at this point just about every time if she's Town. The only reason she might not have been was if Wooper were scum, because Skitter couldn't investigate him anyway, but we now obviously know Wooper was Town.

[Luca Blight]

The fact that I pushed hard to lynch Fetchd instead of Skitter, and then had the plan of keeping Skitter alive so she could clear other Townies before LYLO, when she could have investigated me at any time, should show that I'm Town.

you were always last in the investigative pecking order and i was tr'ing you throughout the game so i don't think you would have felt particularly threatened

I didn't feel threatened because I'm Town. If I were scum I would most certainly have felt threatened by what was essentially a cop.

[Luca Blight]

For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.

Do they both hard secure their team mate's death. Like skitter MADE billy the Lynch, p much singlehandedly. Which I can see. I feel like skitter probably coaches Suji and billy better than that.

Posts like these are what first made me suspect a Fetchd/Skitter team.

It was clearly me who hard-pushed the Billy lynch, but Fetchd kept trying to give Skitter the credit for it despite supposedly scumreading Skitter.

nah, the billy lynch i don't think would have happened that day if i hadn't voted him when i did; it turned the tides from the xayah thing towards billy and i could have entirely avoided the billy lynch if i were scum by just, like, pushing xayah instead

Your vote didn't guarantee a Billy lynch, either. It just gave you some insurance in case his lynch was pushed through. It worked as that was the reason I was TR'ing you, until you slipped up with the Frost situation.

The important fact here though is that Fetched, confirmed scum, was trying to give you all the credit for the lynch despite supposedly SR'ing you. It struck me as very odd even at the time.

[Luca Blight]

Spoiler:

Do you really think that town!skitter would just survive up to tomorrow? Sounds like 1% chance.

The point is, we don’t know she is Town. If she eats the NK then it’s better than having to lynch her.

If we ML then Skitter could be kept alive for WIFOM reasons, as we’re then in a MYLO situation.

Right now my *gut feeling* is that Wooper is the final scum.

given the ~ruckus~ about me this game i'm honestly not sure i get nk'd here; i think last scum needs me alive to push me as a mislynch

In her position Skitter, as Town, would have felt more at risk of being the NK, given she literally had the power to clear a Townie or end the game with a guilty with two lynches to spare.

As Kerset said before, Skitter gets NK at this point just about every time if she's Town. The only reason she might not have been was if Wooper were scum, because Skitter couldn't investigate him anyway, but we now obviously know Wooper was Town.

i think you were seeing me as a viable mislynch option for the last portion of the game

Why would I suggest the no-lynch? That would be making this unnecessarily difficult for myself as scum, no?

As it turns out, it was absolutely the correct decision given you are actually scum.

[Luca Blight]

That's a good point. If Skitter were really Town then she could have checked to see if you commuted or not, because scum can't kill and use their ability in the same night.

Checking me from Skitter's PoV gained absolutely nothing, as Kerset was already cleared and I should already have been confscum to her.

[Luca Blight]

You haven't shown a Townie mindset with how you've used your role at all. I don't believe you didn't see Kerset saying it as it was one of the last posts before Night fell.

Also the way you still had a slight SR on Frost despite finding he had no gun, and then not believing his UB claim even though that should have confirmed him as Town from your PoV.

[Luca Blight]

Good game!

[Luca Blight]

Yep. I think p townsided.

Like we got punished for finding the cop first, almost

It’s not too difficult finding the cop when you know the draft order, though

I think whether it’s town or scum sided comes down to which team gets what powers. In this case Town has a few good PR’s and scum had one good PR, so I wouldn’t necessarily say it was town-sided. Scum also had day chat and could co-ordinate their picks.

[Luca Blight]

Town didn’t actually cop Frost, Suji or Adorable - that was Skitter pretending to be gunsmith.

[Luca Blight]

Yeah, that's why I said "or scum, acting as a town role"-- because she was still pretty much forced into doing that by the mechanics.

But then that comes down to more of a scum error/good town play imo. The Gunsmith/neighbourizer bracket probably wasn’t a great scum pick, and scum had time to co-ordinate and discuss their picks pre-game.

[Luca Blight]

Just a few thoughts off the top of my head:

I thought Skitter was actually townier in this game than in our past game where she had a relatively easy scum win. Her distancing with Billy D1 was really good.

Fetchd had a confident vibe which naturally translates as townie, but I became suspicious of him when he started to try to rush the lynches through after the mass-claim.

I was impressed with Kerset’s play from D2 onwards. A big improvement from their D1 play imo.

Rb was really good D1 and one of the only players showing urgency, just a shame he was also a strong pr.

Credit to Frost for calling the Skitter/Fetchd partnership. I had similar thoughts myself, but started to think Skitter might be Town again after reviewing her interactions with Billy.

[Luca Blight]

Wooper, around the time of the mass-claim you were making yourself really easy to read as Town. After the Fetchd lynch you seemed to become really despondent, which is why I switched my view on you. It’s similar to why I SR Nom D2; she seemed really negative after the Billy lynch and it didn’t seem to match the gamestate as Town. I appreciate that you were able to read me correctly throughout