Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

Sirfetchd · Post Post #2450 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:18 pm

In post 2446, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 2443, Sirfetchd wrote:
In post 2440, Luca Blight wrote:For example, I could see a Skitter/Suji possibility.

The only reason I TR Suji was because of his interactions with Billy.
Do they both hard secure their team mate's death. Like skitter MADE billy the Lynch, p much singlehandedly. Which I can see. I feel like skitter probably coaches Suji and billy better than that.
Err, no, I made the Billy lynch single-handedly, not Skitter.

Suji jumped on when Billy was beyond saving.

No skit did. Xayah was the Lynch until skit forced tipping point.

Like convincing people means nothing bc it was a 1 hose race until skit reignited billy. I guess she maybe tells Suji to jump on for vaca wifom idk.

Luca Blight · Post Post #2451 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:24 pm

As you can see from this progression, I was the one who insitgated the Billy wagon when he had 0 votes and Xayah was the clear wagon:

Spoiler:

Sirfetchd · Post Post #2452 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:29 pm

We can talk about this post game, but in terms of wagon mechanics. The tipping point is the only thing that matters that late in the day. I'll run you through my pov post game. The point is we agree skit is very very like as close as possible to lock level likely scum here. This wagon mechanics debate has no bearing on gamestate at all.

My argument is that it doesn't matter who dies first. Today and tomorrow are flub and skit, it doesn't really matter what order, but there's no point doing anything until they are both dead and presumably the game is over. If it's not then we can revisit. Like if we flip skit today we Lynch flub tomorrow regardless of flip. And if we Lynch flub today we Lynch skit tomorrow regardless of flip.

Flub has more votes rn so I guess he goes first.

Luca Blight · Post Post #2453 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:32 pm

Fine.

VOTE: Flubs

I think that's

L-1

.

Sirfetchd · Post Post #2454 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:33 pm

Agreement of premise but difference in the meaty bit sounds so passive aggressive sorry.

Kerset · Post Post #2455 (ISO) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:30 pm

Isn't 4th/5th pick the likely to be vigi? I know that here this wasn't the case but in general.

Kerset · Post Post #2456 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:12 am

Fun fact: one of VT could be mafia RB because our mass claim was going from bottom to up. If evil rb knows that nobody below him tried to pick doc then we couldn't call him out.

Luca Blight · Post Post #2457 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:45 am

Regarding the above, I haven’t checked for associatives yet but I have a feeling about Skitter/Suji, and they claimed the same brackets.

Flubbernugget · Post Post #2458 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:24 am

In post 2417, Sirfetchd wrote:Regardless, we have no kill and a sweet block on flub.

You didn't block me FWIW, but that will be self evident on my flip

Flubbernugget · Post Post #2459 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:25 am

In post 2420, skitter30 wrote:
In post 2416, Something_Smart wrote:By the way, mafia doctor doesn't show up as having no gun. Again, read the role PM's...
i kinda just assumed it was a normal gunsmith ...

ok so sirfetched blocked flub and you commuted
i think that the only ways the nk could have gone missing is if either flub did the nk or scum targeted you, is that right?

or am i missing something?

pedit or i guess nominally that xayah was the nk ... but i dont' think that's likely at all whatsoever

Scum could have targeted me, though I don't find that likely.

Luca Blight · Post Post #2460 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:33 am

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Skitter

Think I feel more confident in this one right now. Want a little more time to consider things anyway.

Flubbernugget · Post Post #2461 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:38 am

I'm not moving my vote. Would still rather be the lynch before skitter.

If kerset is correct there is a small chance she got blocked from visiting SS but that still doesn't make up for her "read" on Aaron

ISO · Post Post #2462 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:38 am

It's much better to keep town-skitter around another night than it is to keep town-Flubber around another night. And seeing as we'll likely be lynching both of them regardless of what the other flips, we should definitely do Flubber first.

Kerset · Post Post #2463 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:55 am

In post 2458, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 2417, Sirfetchd wrote:Regardless, we have no kill and a sweet block on flub.
You didn't block me FWIW, but that will be self evident on my flip

Could you explain, I don't understand

Kerset · Post Post #2464 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:02 am

I would rather VOTE: skitter. The evidence is stronger here. Anyway no Aaron on flubs next night.

Flubbernugget · Post Post #2465 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:40 am

In post 2463, Kerset wrote:
In post 2458, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 2417, Sirfetchd wrote:Regardless, we have no kill and a sweet block on flub.
You didn't block me FWIW, but that will be self evident on my flip
Could you explain, I don't understand

The only way fetched can block my kill is if I have a kill to block (ie I'm a vig or scum). I'm neither

Luca Blight · Post Post #2466 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:07 am

If Flubs is telling the truth then the most likely scenario i can see is someone attempting to NK SS, and Skitter is already claiming a night action on SS...

ISO · Post Post #2467 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:28 am

Skitter didn't know I was commuting though. I could have been saved by doc or JK.

In fact if Flubber is town, then I was probably the NK target, which somewhat spews skitter as town because she knew I commuted and why would she gunsmith me and kill me.

Kerset · Post Post #2468 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:06 am

Actually I have another theory. It is not the best one but raises the chance of innocent flub.
In the truth wooper is vengeful not vigi. Scumteam killed xaya to clear his role and wooper is the one who performed fractional kill on n2. Skitter was the one who made n1 kill. Skitter was unlikely to be tracked but on n2 it was better for wooper to be tracked.

In any case Aaron looks to be inno. Sorry man I was wrong.

ISO · Post Post #2469 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:08 am

That's, uh, really tinfoily.

Luca Blight · Post Post #2470 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:14 am

If you commute/are jailed is it not the same result if you’re targeted by gunsmith/NK? Either way the action is unsuccessful, right?

SS, what is your opinion on what happened N2?

ISO · Post Post #2471 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:15 am

JK stops only killing actions on the target. Gunsmith would still go through.

ISO · Post Post #2472 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:16 am

I think it's likely Flubber attempted the kill and was blocked. If Flubber flips town then it's likely I was the target and skitter is town.

Adorable · Post Post #2473 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:20 am

I'm leaning more on the associates being Flub/Skitter. Flub tried to perform the kill and failed because he got jailed. Only way I could think of Skitter performing the night kill is if she tried to kill SS and if she did tried to kill SS, then she would have invested someone else.

Kerset · Post Post #2474 (ISO) » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:34 am

You learned so much, I am proud of you.