Micro 897 [Game Over]

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #31 (isolation #0) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:41 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 30, eth0s wrote:
In post 27, eth0s wrote:
In post 26, BBmolla wrote:Self-voting isn't even that bad of an idea tbh you beat me to it
hol up
this was originally a silly/joke response but now I'm curious. What is your logic here, BBmolla?

I'm assuming you're being serious given the last half of your sentence
Don’t answer yet, bb. Ethos wagon is bad.

I have a 100% win rate in this setup, so y’all should probably just sheep me.

To that end, I will now lead in my breaking strategy:

We must massclaim social security numbers. Mine is 8675309. Popcorn to wooper.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:48 am

Post by Bingle »

Also

VOTE: dr drew

Serious vote.
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Post Post #34 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:52 am

Post by Bingle »

Wooper cop.
Ethos mason.
Bbmolla vig.
Drew godfather.

Ez game
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Post Post #40 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:15 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 36, BBmolla wrote:Why should I not answer
Because talking about hunting strats taints Jester strats and I want to see how people react BEFORE they know what people are looking for.

Obviously, some of us have experience with this setup and thus are more likely to know *things* but I want to get honest reactions from people who don't know *things* before *things* become public.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #4) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:16 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 34, Bingle wrote:Wooper cop.
Ethos mason.
Bbmolla vig.
Drew godfather.

Ez game
This is a 100% serious post that can and will be translated for the uninitiated at some point in the future, btw.
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Post Post #45 (isolation #5) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:32 am

Post by Bingle »

BS can be a mason too.
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Post Post #46 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:33 am

Post by Bingle »

BB, if you had to choose the lynch right now on someone who isn't you, who would it be?
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Post Post #47 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:34 am

Post by Bingle »

Wooper cop read intensified by recent posting.
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Post Post #54 (isolation #8) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:38 pm

Post by Bingle »

You derailing a lynch off of my legitimate scumread is worrisome. Speaketh, Mr. Book, about your reasoning.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #9) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:03 am

Post by Bingle »

Huh. Nancy is confer not jester. Bye Nancy.

VOTE: nancy
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Post Post #116 (isolation #10) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:04 am

Post by Bingle »

VOTE: DDM

Fine then. One down, two to go. Drew doesn’t want to be lynched, he goes next.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #11) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:06 am

Post by Bingle »

Bb has significant jester equity too, btw.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #12) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:19 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 121, Blatant Scum wrote:Bingle, so your strategy is to keep lynching every player with low jester equity until day 4?
Yups. There’s an ~80% chance we hit scum in the first three lynched by doing so. If we hit 0 scum in the first three lynches, scum has a 75% winrate. If we hit 1 scum in the first three lynches, we have three shots to hit the other scum.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #13) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:21 am

Post by Bingle »

You can code it like mine!
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Post Post #132 (isolation #14) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:22 am

Post by Bingle »

VOTE: Dr Drew

Wooper, you’re visiting town or jester. Either way, stahp.
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Post Post #133 (isolation #15) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:23 am

Post by Bingle »

Voting not visiting
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Post Post #136 (isolation #16) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:29 am

Post by Bingle »

I don’t particularly care. He doesn’t want to be lynched, this is not jester. He could well be scum, this is better than lynching not jester townreads. If he is scum, he has associated adequately.

Ethos, otoh, is uncaring of both how his votes look and how his survival looks, which is a town/jester dichotomy. Nancy was right that he’s never lynch.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #17) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:30 am

Post by Bingle »

Bs, also, is likely not jester, fwiw.
Rooroo is my other scumread, atm.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #18) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:32 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 3, skitter30 wrote:
Please note the following change/tweak to the setup:
If a no lynch occurs, the jester automatically wins
Traditionally that tweak is either plurality lynching or simply no deadlines and no option to no lynch. It’s not gonna come up though. ;)
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Post Post #141 (isolation #19) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:34 am

Post by Bingle »

Wooper ethos are my designated endgame, btw. Both could easily be jester but are probably not groupscum.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #20) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:36 am

Post by Bingle »

I’ll be back to vote bs when this wagon goes through.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #21) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:37 am

Post by Bingle »

I’ve modded ruru in jester night less before.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #22) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:42 am

Post by Bingle »

Aye. She’s playing the optimal mag strat which is a strong but not optimal jester strat. The reason this setup is interesting is that it becomes more about how familiar people are with this setup than with how they’re actually playing in the game.
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Post Post #149 (isolation #23) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:44 am

Post by Bingle »

Eh, I feel I’m fairly obviously not mafia at this point, but that’ll only matter if we hit 5p lylo, tbh.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #24) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:48 am

Post by Bingle »

Ethos is actually the highest jester equity of the remaining 6. Vote hoppy and proactive is exactly what I’d expect from jester there. Bb would be slightly more likely to lurk.
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Post Post #156 (isolation #25) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:50 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 151, Wooper wrote:
In post 149, Bingle wrote:Eh, I feel I’m fairly obviously not_mafia at this point, but that’ll only matter if we hit 5p lylo, tbh.
mind blown
If you want mind blown, best scum strat is probably hard bussing at 3rd lynch.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #26) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:52 am

Post by Bingle »

Low experience, high reasoning expectation.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #27) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:56 am

Post by Bingle »

Confnotjester.

Both town and jester should self hammer at L-1, therefore anyone who doesn’t is presumed scum. At least until D3.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #28) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:56 am

Post by Bingle »

Until after d3
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Post Post #164 (isolation #29) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:57 am

Post by Bingle »

Similarly, anyone who puts someone to l1 has significant jester equity and thus shouldn’t be lynched.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #30) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:07 am

Post by Bingle »

Not really? As town, you should want to lynch not jester. As long as you have a strong read on a not jester who is not you, that’s better than self lynch. Being lynched as town is a good thing though.

Similarly, scum want to lynch town, but they want to lynch their buddy more than a prospective jester.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #31) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:23 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 167, Wooper wrote:this setup is a mess
My variant is even more of a mess, because you also have the jesters not wanting to lynch each other because every jester lynch makes the non-jesters more worried about a jester lynch.

Speaking of, my credentials:

I have the only perfect win record in this setup that I am aware of, have modded roughly half of the runnings of this setup on site, and have created my own variant of the setup.

BB is second, as I believe he was involved with the original creation of the setup and is certainly aware of it regardless.

In order of familiarity after that:

Nancy (dead)
wooper
Rooroo
ofhrz
ethos
BS
Drew
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Post Post #179 (isolation #32) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:09 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 152, Bingle wrote:Ethos is actually the highest jester equity of the remaining 6. Vote hoppy and proactive is exactly what I’d expect from jester there.
Arguing yourself as Jester is also +Jester equity and town equity, though, so... I'm still cool with assuming you to be town unless you leave as jester. :] Thank you for strengthening my read.

If you can get me to L-1 I will 100% self hammer.
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Post Post #180 (isolation #33) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:11 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 170, eth0s wrote:oh you're jingle arent you
Yes, publicly so.

Jingle is the main, I play on this account so I don't have to deal with all of the modding/discussion/etc in my ego/bookmarks when I just want to respond to games.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #34) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:20 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 184, BBmolla wrote:I fail to see why people think I’m scum or jester
I really didn't like your derail off of Dr. Drew, and think it has partner equity. If you're not scum with Drew your group scum equity drops significantly, which is a big part of why I want specifically Drew lynched.

I also didn't like your Nancy push as "Nancy is obvscum" off a really shitty reason for a read, which could mean you're jester unconcerned about lynching Jester, which is totally how I would play as Jester. (Well, one of two constituent pieces.)
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Post Post #186 (isolation #35) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:23 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 34, Bingle wrote:Wooper cop.
Ethos mason.
Bbmolla vig.
Drew godfather.

Ez game
Translations:

Cop: Likely town, shouldn't be lynched, might lead us to scum.
Mason: Don't lynch unless they survive a ridiculous amount of time for no reason.
Vig: Likely self resolving, don't lynch early.
Godfather: High impact scum, lynch right away.
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Post Post #193 (isolation #36) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:44 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 175, eth0s wrote:trying to knock off the actual useful townies first
Talk to me about this, when you get a chance.

What part of Drew/BS is "The actual useful townies"?
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Post Post #198 (isolation #37) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:17 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 48, BBmolla wrote:UNVOTE:

If I had to lynch right now I'd lynch Drew, that's less to win and more not to lose so hol up cause I'm pretty sure at least one scum has yet to post
In post 49, BBmolla wrote:VOTE: Don Draper x Mistress

nvm this is mafia
That'd be how I read this when DDM had ~1 post.
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Post Post #199 (isolation #38) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:17 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 195, Doctor Drew wrote:Good job Bingle.

I like you, but your read on me was hilariously bad.
Confirming you just won as Jester?
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Post Post #203 (isolation #39) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:22 pm

Post by Bingle »

No, I think the progression of 48-49 comes across as having high partner equity with Drew and high jester equity from not being careful about endorsing the Nancy wagon.

I don't think either of those statements are unreasonable/surprising.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #40) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:24 pm

Post by Bingle »

Seriously, though, Drew, we've got about 24 hours until Skitts is back, presumably. If the game is over you should just tell us.
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Post Post #213 (isolation #41) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:41 pm

Post by Bingle »

First of all, the hydra was not a lynch for which I am responsible. They were confirmed not jester when I voted for them, and a certain to my preferred lynch.

Second of all, I think drew has low jester equity. I’ve talked about this, and quoting myself repeatedly doesn’t help anything.

Third, drew is currently l-2.

Fourthly I just explained why I think you have partner equity with molla drew, but nice try.

UNVOTE: for now while I consider the implications of the jester soft claim into retraction from drew post hammer test.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #42) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:41 pm

Post by Bingle »

Counter not certain
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Post Post #217 (isolation #43) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:43 am

Post by Bingle »

Yeah, reread Drew Iso. I don't see a world where that is jester.

VOTE: Drew

Preferred lynch order remains the same. Drew > BS > legitimate scumhunting.
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Post Post #218 (isolation #44) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:45 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 216, Blatant Scum wrote:Please, assume that I am conf town while posting the equities so I can actually sheep the post.

Thank you.
Would never lynch BB/Rooroo/Wooper.

Probably can't be convinced on ethos.

Fairly certain the jester is in those 4.
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Post Post #222 (isolation #45) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:51 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 219, Doctor Drew wrote:Jester soft claim?

Like I said the 'good job' was snarky and I was, with a little frustrated angry tone, commenting on your awful, and possibly made up, read on me.
My awful read of Not Jester, possibly scum with Molla?

Like, if I'm wrong on the thrust of my read on you, then you're a Jester. If I'm right that you're not Jester and there's a chance you're scum, then your indignation is dumb. If you don't want to be lynched, tell me who else in my pool of willing to lynch is better and why.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #46) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:52 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 221, Blatant Scum wrote:Knowing this Bingle, do you still want to lynch DD?
I mean... I'll still probably push you tomorrow if he flips town, unless you can convince me that someone else is clearly not Jester and more likely to be scum. But that's also kinda how this game works. So yeah.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #47) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:59 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 219, Doctor Drew wrote:Like I said the 'good job' was snarky and I was, with a little frustrated angry tone, commenting on your awful, and possibly made up, read on me.
This part is very scum indicative, FMPOV, btw.

My primary read is NotJester. Drew clearly doesn't want to be lynched and is as such Not-A-Jester.

As town, the only way my read on him is NotJester and made up is if I'm trying to get lynched after leading on him as Jester, which... Is pretty obviously untrue.

As scum, same.

Unless I'm a Jester, it's clear I think he's not a Jester genuinely. I've explained why I think he's a good lynch otherwise (BB's switch off of him looked w/w and I don't want to lynch BB) but that's clearly a secondary concern in my read. His focus on it is crazy scummy, and from my experience with cult drew, I don't think he's self aware enough to throw out don't lynch me vibes so well as Jester.
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Post Post #227 (isolation #48) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:03 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 225, Doctor Drew wrote:Post edit: So this game is just 'who gives a shit if we lynch town, as long as we miss jester'?

Seems kind of not fun, and scum sided.
Yes. Yes it is.

It's a meme setup, and is actually slightly townsided iirc.

33% chance of a Jester win, higher town, lower scum.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #49) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:08 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 224, Doctor Drew wrote:Slight chance they are scum and it was a genuine reaction test to out the jester......but I would lean more to jester.
The reaction test was a joint op between wooper and ofhrz, btw. I just went with it.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #50) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 230, Doctor Drew wrote:Curious for you to elaborate on how the cult game(or games? I don't remember if you were in both) affects your read here.

Pre Edit: Hmm, valid point..... you have used the reaction to further your 'case' more though.
You clearly didn't know how to utilize Mentor fully going into the game, nor did you do excessive research into how to win as Mentor when you rolled it. That means you're unlikely to be Jester with an elaborate plan to WIFOM not Jester imo, because that strat is intuitive in a similar way.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #51) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:44 am

Post by Bingle »

Drew is conf not Jester at this point, given he's L-1 btw.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #52) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:50 am

Post by Bingle »

I wish that was a pagetop, tbh.
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Post Post #239 (isolation #53) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:55 am

Post by Bingle »

What will you flip Drew?
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Post Post #247 (isolation #54) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:50 pm

Post by Bingle »

VOTE: BS

Where are people at reads wise?
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Post Post #256 (isolation #55) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:36 am

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How is that changed if I tell you that ofhrz is bet the game not jester too?
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Post Post #257 (isolation #56) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:37 am

Post by Bingle »

Like, 80% of the time jester is in rooroo/bb right now.
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Post Post #259 (isolation #57) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:43 am

Post by Bingle »

I’m fine with not rushing this day, tbh. I think there are multiple never jesters. I would like posts like whoops from as many peeps as possible.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #58) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:43 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 269, BBmolla wrote:At least one of (ofrhz, wooper, bingle) is non-town, I don't believe that whole wagon was town. Could be a jester.
Why not?
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Post Post #380 (isolation #59) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:26 pm

Post by Bingle »

Oh, hey, I can load pages again.

Catching up.
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Post Post #381 (isolation #60) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:32 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 293, Wooper wrote:I'm literally a more obvtown version of Bungle this game. The only reason to lynch me over him is if you think he's the jester (yo) or you're his scumbuddy.

But much much more importantly: we need to lynch someone who is NOT A JESTER and isn't going to win this game in f5.

Ergo: BS.
In post 303, Wooper wrote:
In post 299, eth0s wrote:
In post 292, Wooper wrote:Bungle mystically townreads you and I and says we need to endgame because we're both absolutely town; you have no issue with this until it gets time for the final lynch before the jester flips and suddenly you want me lynched. That reeks of an agenda.
What, haven't you both townread me all game? If I had an agenda surely I would be fine with going to lylo/pre-lylo with two people that townread me?
unless you're scum with one of them and the other one is starting to obvtown.

if you reach 5p with both me and jungle alive if he's your scumbuddy, i'm more likely to catch him than most other people in this list: it's a really good scum strat to get to lylo-1 and have you attack me from the other side.
Wooper, why you flailing like scum?
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Post Post #382 (isolation #61) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:36 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 330, Wooper wrote:the way he's going about powerlynching town doesn't feel like town!bungle in this situation; his play around the drew lynch for example
Specifics? Also, why do you think you can read me all of a sudden?
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Post Post #398 (isolation #62) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 255, Wooper wrote:Bingle - is hardcore pushing optimal town strat but in a way that systematically alienates slots and isn't winning him any friends; this is either town, or a v good jester strat. not lynching before jester leaves.
What changed between this read on me and now?

Why do you think you’re the best person in this list at reading me when afaicr you have ~0% read accuracy on me?

Why would me being the designated mislynch in 5p not be worrisome?

Who is my partner if it’s not ethos?

If you’re worried I’m jester and ethos is my scum buddy but not jester, why aren’t you trying to lynch ethos?
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Post Post #403 (isolation #63) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:58 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 401, Wooper wrote:and I don't see why you think I should be held to a read I had 150 posts ago.
Why should I?

Further, look at my activities this game. I have been lynching probable jesters, this is true. I’ve also been attempting to lynch people who might be scum over people who probably aren’t. Aorn, my preferred lynch in 5p is probably ruru, followed by you. I don’t trust my ruru read as it could be town lolcatting. I feel that it’s fairly obvious from my attempt to solve between BS/ofhrz and to a lesser extent my push to drew largely because I thought that bb/drew might be a thing and drew was the not jester of the pair. Given that, I think it’s pretty obvious I’m town (or jester stalling the lynch) and not scum. If I were scum, which isn’t a reasonable read by any stretch of my imagination lynching ethos pretty well solves me from your proposed POV, but you’re not trying to do so.

With regards to your read accuracy, you’re setting yourself up as the person who can catch scum me in this list when there’s multiple people who have expressed concerns over my alignment AND you don’t have any particular history of being able to tell that I’m town.

So, again, why do you want to lynch me in your proposed 5p LYLO?
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Post Post #405 (isolation #64) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:22 am

Post by Bingle »

You look like you're trying to look like you're trying to avoid getting lynched while simultaneously painting me as scummy for things I haven't actually done and holding your reads close to your chest while there is no nightkill and the jester is revealed at the end of today. I'll repeat my question: Why? What do you hope to gain by acting like this?

If you have to decide the lynch 100% by yourself and you're told the game ends if you don't lynch scum, who do you lynch, right now?
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Post Post #406 (isolation #65) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:33 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 403, Bingle wrote:probable notjesters
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Post Post #409 (isolation #66) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:23 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 407, Wooper wrote:i'm trying to highlight the slot i see openwolfing, because i'm worried most of this list won't see it. assuming you're not removed from the game i can't come out in 5p like "WOAH BINGLE IS SCUM" - it's vital that i call it when i first see it. call it setting up for a lynch if you like; it's setting up a dialogue so that we can sort you before endgame.
Yeah... Except I am trying to engage on the dialogue.
In post 382, Bingle wrote:
In post 330, Wooper wrote:the way he's going about powerlynching town doesn't feel like town!bungle in this situation; his play around the drew lynch for example
Specifics? Also, why do you think you can read me all of a sudden?
In post 394, Wooper wrote:
In post 382, Bingle wrote:
In post 330, Wooper wrote:the way he's going about powerlynching town doesn't feel like town!bungle in this situation; his play around the drew lynch for example
Specifics? Also, why do you think you can read me all of a sudden?
I'll case this if I need to but I'd much prefer if someone actually engaged w me on this read so I can develop it without just reading your ISO over and over until I confbias myself.

Solid bravado btw reminiscent of scum!myself
In post 398, Bingle wrote:
In post 255, Wooper wrote:Bingle - is hardcore pushing optimal town strat but in a way that systematically alienates slots and isn't winning him any friends; this is either town, or a v good jester strat. not lynching before jester leaves.
What changed between this read on me and now?

Why do you think you’re the best person in this list at reading me when afaicr you have ~0% read accuracy on me?

Why would me being the designated mislynch in 5p not be worrisome?

Who is my partner if it’s not ethos?

If you’re worried I’m jester and ethos is my scum buddy but not jester, why aren’t you trying to lynch ethos?
Your responses, of course:
In post 394, Wooper wrote:I'll case this if I need to but I'd much prefer if someone actually engaged w me on this read so I can develop it without just reading your ISO over and over until I confbias myself.

Solid bravado btw reminiscent of scum!myself
and

What changed your read? Reads change.
Why are you integral to catching scum me here? Because you've seen my tricks. (Also, you're right that this isn't trying to correct your reads, it's trying to read your motivations, which is just as important.)
Why is it scummy to be suspicious of what is clearly a way to make me lose the game, regardless of your intentions? Because you should be allowed to have reads.
Who is my partner if not Ethos? You haven't considered it.
If you think I'm scum with Ethos and Ethos is not jester, why aren't you pushing Ethos? Because if I'm not scum with Ethos, Ethos is town. (Which would be irrelevant, because, you know, lynching town me in 5p still results in a scum win even if you do correctly read Ethos at that point. See: the entire basis of lynching Drew.)

For the record, AaronFrost is probtown. Ethos is probtown. BS is probtown. Rooroo, BB, and Wooper all have significant jester equity, but there's almost guaranteed 2 scum in those three, FMPOV.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #67) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:24 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 402, Wooper wrote:This is another reason I need to be here in f5.
This is the single scummiest possible post in this setup, and I think you know that.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #68) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by Bingle »

So you think Aaron is the best lynch for today?

Good to know. I'm glad you answered that when I asked you.

Now, who is likely to be my partner.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #69) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:56 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 411, Wooper wrote:you know why you can twist my words to make me look bad: because i've been here trying to solve the game in realtime. i have read trajectory that you can twist to try and present as inconsistencies. i have stances, but i am not going to evaluate parts of the game which i frankly may not need to bother with, no.
You realize that all of this applies more so to me than to you, right?
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Post Post #414 (isolation #70) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:56 pm

Post by Bingle »

Also:
In post 411, Wooper wrote:dude you're not getting a lynch on me. don't try it.
In post 394, Wooper wrote:Solid bravado btw reminiscent of scum!myself
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Post Post #418 (isolation #71) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:08 pm

Post by Bingle »

Here's the situation we find ourselves in.

I refuse to be the game ending mislynch. If it wasn't an empty offer I'd self vote. I'm offering Carte Blanche to associative hunt my partner today on the grounds that if we lynch scum, I no longer give a shit about being lynched because that nets us two additional mislynches. If we lynch town and I'm the designated mislynch tomorrow, there's nothing I can really do to stop it if you're also town. What I can do is make you lynch the person you think is most likely to be scum with me so that I don't get lynched off of associations. I can make you argue why I'm scum (which you have yet to do) in the hopes of derailing this tunnel.

Also, if ruru is town here she's been actively gamethrowing all game, so... Fucks given about that loss? 0.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #72) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:14 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 415, Wooper wrote:Where the fuck did you get that from?

And I'm not PoEing a partner for you pre-jester flip it's not a good use of my time.
I got that from I have a "Not Jester pool" (Which you've agreed with, afaict) that is three names. And you said one of those is not towny. One of those is S/S only with me, but you don't want to lynch it.

Why isn't PoE-ing a partner for me useful prejester flip? You refuse to lynch me, but are convinced I'm scum. How do you solve my alignment without gambling the game ending lynch on it?
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Post Post #421 (isolation #73) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:16 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 419, Wooper wrote:We need to lynch town today
No. We need to lynch Not Jester today. There is 0 reason not to scumhunt within the pool of NotJester.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #74) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:22 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 422, Wooper wrote:short answer: by butting heads with you in F5
This is not a town answer. If we are both town here and we don't lynch scum today, the game is probably over so long as you're tunneled. I don't see why you would fail to understand that. I don't see why you refuse to try to sort based on that if you are town.

I also don't see why you won't tell me why you think I'm scum.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #75) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:26 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 426, Wooper wrote:eth0s - too easy to POE via solving jungle
Also, this is not a real thing. This is a copout. You are asking me to gamble the entire game on there being a scum in {me/one of my townreads} and then getting mad when I push back.

Too easy to solve via solving me means "Oh, if scum has already won, we'll know Ethos' alignment" in this context.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #76) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:29 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 428, Blatant Scum wrote:
In post 398, Bingle wrote:Why do you think you’re the best person in this list at reading me when afaicr you have ~0% read accuracy on me?
That is ~100% if we use negation of his read.
Too small a sample size. I'm not arguing he can't read me, I'm arguing the sentiment that he's the only one who can read me is disingenuous.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #77) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:32 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 430, Wooper wrote:i feel better about you and eth0s' by extension
I
don't
feel better about you.

(Ironically, this is the single highest jester equity post I've made all game)
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Post Post #438 (isolation #78) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:35 pm

Post by Bingle »

Did I ever explain to you the optimal strat for D3 in this setup, btw?
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Post Post #440 (isolation #79) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:37 pm

Post by Bingle »

Jester wincon for me this game would have been run down the clock, JSYK.

I was never getting lynched before D4 in a playerlist with people who know my history with this setup.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #80) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:42 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 439, Wooper wrote:nope - we don't hang out as much as i'd like </3
but i did divine my own optimal strat
It's very simple.

Step 1: Find most likely Jester.
Step 2: Make most likely Jester pick a lynch other than their own.

If most likely Jester is scum, they will pick to not hit Jester.
If most likely Jester is town, they will pick to hit notJester scum.
If most likely Jester is Jester, they will rng or refuse to cooperate, either way resulting in a Jester loss.

If refusal to cooperate, pick most likely town, make them pick a lynch other than their own.

Day 4, lynch the person chosen initially on D3 if they are still around.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #81) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:47 pm

Post by Bingle »

Effort =/= gain. There's 3 flips between D3 and D5, so the amount of information for the last two lynches are incomparably large.
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Post Post #448 (isolation #82) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:54 pm

Post by Bingle »

The unfortunate thing there is that that argument doesn't preclude youscum who set up the 1v1 and backed out. It does make me hesitant to lynch you on the basis of C9, but I'm not satisfied yet.

Let's say, for a minute, that we lynch BS and he flips town. BB exits the game as Jester. Who do you lynch?
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Post Post #451 (isolation #83) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:01 pm

Post by Bingle »

And if ruru leaves?
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Post Post #453 (isolation #84) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:05 pm

Post by Bingle »

Fuck it. Pocket accepted.

Also, I'm really sad no one conftowned themselves based on my reaction test.
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Post Post #455 (isolation #85) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:06 pm

Post by Bingle »

VOTE: BS
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Post Post #457 (isolation #86) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:07 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 169, Bingle wrote:I have the only perfect win record in this setup that I am aware of,
While this is true, I have only played this setup once and was scum. Every other time I was involved (including F2F) I was the moderator.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #87) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:16 pm

Post by Bingle »

Yeah. I get wrekt by Wooper/Ethos or BSJester, but I'm kinda okay with either of those at this point. I'm also pretty okay with saying Aaron's replace in was towny, so not lynching there in 5p should give me a little wiggle room if it's only one of Wooper/Ethos.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #88) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:27 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 461, BBmolla wrote:Why do you think I’m scum?
PoE, tbh. I thought you might be scum with Drew cause weird wagon derail onto Nancydra, but was clearly wrong there. At this point you're about as null as null can be. I just have different shades of townread on most of the list.

Who do you think is scummy?
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Post Post #489 (isolation #89) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:53 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 483, BBmolla wrote:still feel this way.
Why is ruru town?
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Post Post #491 (isolation #90) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:11 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 490, Blatant Scum wrote:
In post 460, Wooper wrote:dw i'm town and bs is firmly notjester
Unfair!
In almost every game, people suspect me of being a jester. Even if the role isn't possible.
In this game, you think I am notjester.
It's okay, you can be a Jester in my heart.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #91) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:14 am

Post by Bingle »

Hasn't happened in a long time, but I remember being able to pick up BBMtown out of a lineup pretty well. Low effort is definitely not scumindicative from him.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #92) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:57 pm

Post by Bingle »

I'd switch to AF if people aren't feeling BS notJester, I guess.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #93) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:57 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 507, eth0s wrote:I don't think this is correct. It's something I'll reflect on once jester flips but she made a certain statement that stands out to me.
Could you maybe point it out now?
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Post Post #515 (isolation #94) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:33 pm

Post by Bingle »

VOTE: aaronfrost

Request for space granted ethos.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #95) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:27 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 501, AaronFrost wrote:Hi I have a name.
So does my bologna.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #96) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:28 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 518, BBmolla wrote:I disagree wholeheartedly. Optimal play would be to make up strong reads and then follow them to an unreasonable extent.
FWIW, this has proven to be the stronger strategy in the past.

Or being NotMafia, because for some reason people are willing to policy lynch him even when he is the Jester.

If BB is Jester, I doubt he's intentionally lurking and has more likely just been absent at key points of the game.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #97) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:15 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 525, skitter30 wrote:wooper has suicided. He was a jester
Git wrekt nub.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #98) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:17 am

Post by Bingle »

I should probably reread to see who was blocking my BS wagon which made me shift momentum onto AF other than Ethos, but I think Ethos 100% town read just wins us the game here.

I'll throw down a BS vote sans any major revelations tomorrow.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #99) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:59 am

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In post 535, Blatant Scum wrote:I am not asking for a full clear, but give me at least a few town credits for being on him for the whole day 3.
Actually compelling argument, but I'm not going back to reread today.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #100) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:59 pm

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I think, right now, I want to lynch rooroo. I'm fairly confident locktowning Ethos off of a combination of 6 and 172 in addition to the feels I had before. Ethos, thoughts?
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Post Post #541 (isolation #101) » Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:46 am

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I mean... Other than my play all game?

I was the spark that swung to AF over BS.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #102) » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:07 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 542, eth0s wrote:BBmolla is my only somewhat confident TR
Convince me?
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Post Post #547 (isolation #103) » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:12 am

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In post 544, Blatant Scum wrote:Question.
Can jester still win if we no lynch?
RAW: yes. It’s not really relevant, tbh, because we just flash wagon if we get below 24 hours.
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Post Post #549 (isolation #104) » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:24 am

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I mean... If ethos can convince me you're town I'm down to just turbo lynch the rest of us and finish the game right here. As far as I'm concerned, if ethos is scum he's already won. I objectively have bad associations with AF, so I need to decide whether I have to try to convince ethos to lynch you over BS or BS over you.

I'd lynch rooroo, but ethos has a thing he wants to do there and I'm okay giving him 48ish hours to accomplish it.

If he convinces me strongly enough on you I'm down to lay down and give you guys another week to figure things out at deadline.
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Post Post #550 (isolation #105) » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:26 am

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Also, obligatory, rooroo is at L-1, so, you know don't hammer.

Keeping your votes there is probably a good idea, though, so we don't accidentally no lynch.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #106) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:32 am

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In post 542, eth0s wrote:I still need to look into rooroo and who could have partner equity with aaron.

I'm leaning bingle or BS as scum for standalone reasons but I want rooroo's scumreads along with reasoning.

BBmolla is my only somewhat confident TR
Poke poke.
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Post Post #556 (isolation #107) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:29 pm

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In post 553, BBmolla wrote:Is there really a reason not to hammer this?
Ethos asked for time and I trust ethos.

I'll hammer in a couple of days regardless, but I don't see a reason we shouldn't let the dude we all agree is town have his extra time rn.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #108) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:54 am

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Ok.

VOTE: ruru
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Post Post #564 (isolation #109) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:56 am

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Assuming skitts accepts and it isn't game over,

VOTE: Bingle

It's up to you if this hits final three, eth0s.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #110) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:13 am

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Note the self vote.

If ethos scum, game is over and he won.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #111) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:14 am

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You can hammer me and skip the waiting if ruru is town, btw.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #112) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:53 pm

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In post 571, BBmolla wrote:I guess I’ll do a full reread

Stop doing whatever you’re doing bingle
Stop... Being willing to risk the game on my solve?

No?
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Post Post #573 (isolation #113) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:56 pm

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VOTE: Bingle

Look, Eth0s is town. Eth0s wants to lynch me. There's no argument I can make here that negates the fact that I would probably have played exactly this way as scum. I'm fine with dying so that we can have a solveable LYLO and I don't foresee any amazing insights coming from me.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #114) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:21 pm

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Why would I try to lynch scum?

Because lynching scum is to my advantage as town.

Why would I instahammer when people are confirmed notJester?

Because losing is not to my advantage, and lynching notJester is not losing.

Why would I not care about being Jester read?

First of all, no one was going to lynch me this game regardless of what role I randed for D1-3 because I am familiar with the setup. Making sure we lynched well within the pool of not me was my primary concern.

The fact of the matter is that I tr-d scum and thus my treatment of that slot is exactly what I would have done as scum. I wanted to lynch BS over AF, which is crazy bad associatives in hindsight. I accurately called out a jester pool of three, which makes me come across as scum. I did all of this as town, but from an outside perspective, I LOOK like scum. I don't endgame here, so it's better to get rid of the paranoia around me now and let town figure out the game in a LYLO that we have a shot at winning.

I vaguely think BB's treatment of the dueling Drew wagons looks worse than BS, but I'm not sure. I'm not going to be sure. I'm not really going to be useful at this point.

So I'm ducking out to get rid of the distraction and allow for the solve.
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Post Post #584 (isolation #115) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:34 pm

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In post 577, BBmolla wrote:bingle stop trying to convince us you're scum and instead tell me more about your reads on me and bs
BS's towncase of himself seems genuine, and the "if Dr Drew flips town I won't accept my lynch" combined with the hard push towards AF on D3 makes me think town.

You've been low impact, and I don't have a real read of you other than thinking the D1 interactions were off.
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Post Post #587 (isolation #116) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:02 pm

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In post 575, Bingle wrote:I vaguely think BB's treatment of the dueling Drew wagons looks worse than BS, but I'm not sure. I'm not going to be sure.
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Post Post #589 (isolation #117) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:33 pm

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Because I don't have the motivation to put in the effort to talk down a scumread on me when a scumread on me is in fact completely legitimate rn. I also don't have a strong opinion on you over BS or BS over you, just a slight preference, so letting eth0s make the call is fine with me.

Simply put, I don't care enough not to just trust eth0s to make the right call tomorrow.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #118) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:12 am

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In post 592, eth0s wrote:I just don't see a world where BB flips scum. The ISO is so dry I wouldn't mind some input from bingle since you two seem to know each other.
Generally, when BB is town he comes under pressure for dumb reasons and it's obvious he's town because of the pushes on him ime. You're vastly overestimating my experience with him, though.

A thought occurred to me this morning about BS though. If he's scum, he didn't want to be lynched but was absolutely fine lynching his partner in a situation where there were potentially multiple town with strong townreads on them.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #119) » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:30 am

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4 days left.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #120) » Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:13 pm

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As long as someone hammers in the next 48 hours y'all can do what you want. I'll keep half an eye open to watch for questions to answer.
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Post Post #688 (isolation #121) » Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:00 pm

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In post 686, RadiantCowbells wrote:jingle i blame you for that loss btw
K.
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Post Post #707 (isolation #122) » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:22 am

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In post 698, eth0s wrote:I thought bingle was gonna wreck me this game. And I think he played well. I feel incredibly lucky and confused why I was so highly townread. It felt like a domino effect where people just continued to accept it because others did
I tr-d you for effort when it looked like you could coast and the attempt to claim not jester cred and specifically not towncred with the "I caused the setup to change post" in the beginning, FWIW.

And I didn't really scumread any of the F3. That's why I wanted out in the F4, cause I didn't trust myself to be right in the F3 at all and I would have been a huge distraction because I have an undeservedly high rep for town competence.

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