In post 2375, Something_Smart wrote:
Oh, sorry.
1. I don't think that's how the math works? If we look at past setups, the occurrences of town backup neighborizer + scum loyal neighborizer are zero, so you can't say the roles occur together frequently. And "backup without the original" is more common than "mafia loyal neighborizer."
2. 3 scum is a LOT different from 2 scum + traitor. The setup already has two masons and an even-night neapolitan, all of whom can be cleared on setup spec, and the neapolitan might get a result as well. That's too much for a traitor, especially given scum would have to have no other investigative or roleblocking power.
3. I mean... if there's a traitor scum probably have it narrowed down to a few people, and town apathy is common and this game has been apathetic since it started, and plus, scum have to lynch SOMEONE, it's not like they can win by sitting back and getting town to NL six times in a row. I think this theory is very remote.
1. Sorry, that was not what i meant - i meant to say that backup <anything> and universal backups are fairly common in normal setups, whereas the traitor modifier is much rarer. I never said that the roles occur together frequently. I meant to say that we have a larger sample of backup modifiers compared to traitors, so i don't think it is fair to measure the "backup without main" ratio VS "neighborizer + traitor" ratio with such a small sample of traitor setups.
2. Yes, 3 scum is a LOT different than 2 scum + traitor. I agree that it makes the scum team much weaker, and if we happened to lynch the mafia nbrz, the game would have been slightly more townsided, but not that much - my new ability would be to talk to people privately, without any investigative potential given that i'd not be loyal. However, consider the contrary: if we don't lynch the neighborizer, the town power force is composed of 2 masons + 1 even-night neap + named townie. Looking at the recent archives of 13p Normals (see below), town is consistently stronger than that. Plus, we have no idea what modifiers could be attached to the traitor. He could be a multitasking rolecop/doctor/anything for what we know.
3. It's not like scum wouldn't lynch out of fear of taking out the traitor, just that they would also keep their eyes open as opposed to lynch anything that moves like they would do in a more standardized game. I would think that they would speculate in their PT who could or could not be their hidden ally rather than doing stuff at random - of course, in the end they have to push against someone and that's probably what happened against garmr for him to accumulate that many votes so quickly.
Town power force in recent 13p Normals
2073.
2 mason + 1 voyeur + 1 loyal fruit vendor VS 2 goons + 1 complex fruit vendor
2071.
2 mason + 1 bulletproof IC + 1 even-night detective VS 1 mafia informed + 1 odd-night vanilla cop + goon
2070.
1 jk + 1 miller odd-night loyal neighborizer + 1 cop + 1 ascetic 1-shot bulletproof VS 2 goons + rolecop
2068.
2 neighbors + 3 masons + 1 loud indecisive doctor VS 2 goons + 1 loud traffic analyst
2062.
1 watcher + 1 disloyal vigilante + 1 town informed + 1 3-shot loyal neighborizer + 1 JOAT (voyeur, follower, tracker) VS 1 mafia informed + 2 goons + 1 traitor
The list goes on, but i mean look at that power force. 2 masons + 1 even-night nea + 1 named townie is shit compared to those examples.
