Large Normal 224 | Endgame

[Wake1]

Chennis I can take the time and pet them like a barking Labrador and calm them down.

Menalque’s all fine and dandy until I start to pet him

What the fick
Also VOTE: wake

I don't want to lynch wake. I'm biased and I confess to it. I want to play with him some, so maybe let him be till D2. I don't have a solid read on him though, so I'm not going to fight against the wagon too hard, but I certainly am not going to vote him unless someone brings up some solid evidence why he should be the lynch today.

+1

He also always had a tendency to take heat really easily, so even if that weren’t the case, I still have reason to not want that wagon today.

Just noticed this post. Both Almost50 and Flavor Leaf wanted me to stay in the game and defended me, while Gamma, who we now know is Town, opted to vote for me.

So this yells me the Scum team, at that point, intended to leave me alive. I don't think FL really explained why he wanted to keep me around. What I'm doing is looking at those posts around that time period to see if anyone else behaved like A50 and FL. Davesav didn't really get to that point in 806, but it felt like he was shifting a bit his focus from me to someone else.

If you guys can remember anyone else besides A50 or FL that were defending me like they were, that could likely be one of the Scum members. Based on what those two were doing early on they probably thought I'd be valuable to them late-game.

[Hectic]

There's so many things wrong with that post.

[Hectic]

Got some time now.
I don't believe town!Wake honestly believes more scum other than Almo and Leaf were keeping him alive for some unknown secret reason, and there might be even

more

members of the scumteam who were doing the same. Why in the world would 3+ scum defend Wake like he's valuable to them?
Also, town!Gamma defending Wake has nothing to do with the other scum defending him.

Either Wake is scum who was defended by his scum buddies, or he's town and scum were off his wagon to look better and since no other scum were in danger of being lynched on counterwagons. Leaning towards the former.

VOTE: Wake

[Hectic]

Pissy summed up what I find different about Dave this game. He's less assertive and hasn't given out controversial reads.
@Dave: Enjoy your concert.

Thanks, it was great! My son's HS orchestra. His other non-HS orchestra has a concert on Sunday.

Yes, it's different. I'm very aware that nothing has really set me off this game, and it's not comfortable at all.

Nice, sounds like fun!

[Hectic]

My only doubt on Mene right now is his weird gamestate scumread on Luca. He was townreading Wake to such an extent that he thought Wake was the counterwagon to Luca? Why couldn't it have been TvT, and

why is Wake the scum over Luca in the case of TvS?

His short answers to my questions on it indicate he doesn't really want to talk about it much either.

Didn't the Wake wagon come up first?
I'm not sure about the underlined part, the first part says you think Mena thought Luca was scum over Wake.

Pedit: @Luca: For that VC look at the relative times of the first votes on you/split/wake. People talk "counter" in terms of numbers/competing wagons but timing could matter as well. Yeah, I can look for it too, possibly will.

Yeah, so if the Wake wagon came up first, why would a Luca counterwagon mean Luca was scum? Doesn't it make more sense for Wake to be scum and Luca town since he came after?

[Hectic]

Followup @Hectic -- you realize my reads were pretty awful in the other game, right? Not that it really matters, but just sayin.

Lul, true. Most of our reads were garbage that game.

[Wake1]

Got some time now.
I don't believe town!Wake honestly believes more scum other than Almo and Leaf were keeping him alive for some unknown secret reason, and there might be even

more

members of the scumteam who were doing the same. Why in the world would 3+ scum defend Wake like he's valuable to them?
Also, town!Gamma defending Wake has nothing to do with the other scum defending him.

Either Wake is scum who was defended by his scum buddies, or he's town and scum were off his wagon to look better and since no other scum were in danger of being lynched on counterwagons. Leaning towards the former.

VOTE: Wake

If you actually think about it, it makes sense.

They could very well have wanted me to survive until late game because they think I'd be easy to mislynch late game. Haven't you ever seen Scum do this in other games where they let a sub-optimal Townie survive later in the game while getting rid of the stronger ones earlier?

If you noticed, both those two in a very short amount of posts agreed that they wanted me to be left over. If presumably half of the Scumteam was intent on that, is it unsafe to think the other unknown members wouldn't?

As Town you should be able to see why they might want me to be around late-game. It's not like I'm that active or am a strong Town-force to them. Your reaction is overblown. I do not like that.

And Gamma wasn't defending me in that quote either, Sir. That means that point is moot. Gamma voted for me while the two Scum defended me.

Looking at what the two Scumflips were doing by defending me, I have good reason to suspect that anyone else alive who was defending me just might be a good place to look at.

I want to hear your response to this Hectic before proceeding.

[Dunnstral]

Maybe they forgot who was on their team and both assumed you were on it when they saw your posting?

[Dunnstral]

I think Wake is the ‘correct’ lynch today, tbh. Even if he’s Town he’s going to a liability later in the game. It would also give some valuable info regarding wagons this game.

I’m not sure why but I feel less inclined to lynch Dolly. I think it should either be Wake or Menalque for the chop today.

Here is a question for you.

Who do we need on the Wake or Menal wagons to get the most info out of these 2 lynches.

I don't understand what this is supposed to mean

[Hectic]

If you're suggesting those two wanted to keep you alive sisne you could be mislynched later, that makes a lot more sense, Wake.
But I don't think the whole of the scumteam or even more than 2 members would go out of their way to stop you being lynched for that reason alone. So I have to decide whether you actually think that's a possibility or if you're blowing this out of proportion and trying to paint two scum defending you as anything other than a negative.

[Menalque]

Votecount 3.06

Dolly Parton

(5): NorwegianboyEE, Dunnstral, Luca Blight, Reundo, Tea

Luca Blight

(3): Menalque, Wake88, Almost50

Almost50

(1): Gamma Emerald

Wake88

(1): Hectic

Dunnstral

(1): Dolly Parton

NorwegianboyEE

(1): pisskop

Menalque

(1): davesaz

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2019-12-10 09:30:00)

---

Mod Notes:

Prodding Hectic

My wagon is awful here, while the Dolly wagon looks very pure. It could be that Dolly is scum with either Wake or Menalque, especially given how Menalque tried to set me up as soon as he entered the game.

If I’d tried to set you up I wouldn’t have dropped it so easily and I would have come in with a better reason for you being scum than something obviously disprovable

[Menalque]

I was TR’ing you Yesterday, and I wish Norwegian played his hand better as it would have been interesting to see how you reacted. As it were, I think you should have taken a step back to consider after the claim, but I can’t entirely blame you for how it went down.

I’m more SR’ing you for your general play. It feels weird how you came in, tried to target me based only on the wagons and then went full pelt at Norwegian

without taking any time to sort anyone else.

I tried to engage you on A50 but you brushed it away. I don’t like how you’ve started D4 - you’re not doing anything to solve the game right now.

Where was the time? I devoted a significant chunk of time to this game, I still think that Norway has v bad progressions in his ISO and especially given the FL scumflip.

Fmpov: norway was obvscum, and was in a relatively powerful position being broadly TR. Given that, I thought the other two possible lynched were prob on town, and your A50 case didn’t really convince me vs what I was seeing in Norway.

Last line is fair, I’m not yet. Norway flipping town threw me off, esp as I thought getting him basically gave a bonus scum in Dunn. I haven’t sat down and reread ISOs yet, I’ll get to it, but I feel very tapped out and idk what to make of the Wake/dolly dichotomy in pushes from other people

[Menalque]

Also straight up harder to effort here after (1) being hard wrong and (2) with conftown SRing me instead of trying to get me into this

[Reundo]

Spoiler:

^Do you think Luca is town, and that A50 was not bussing?

I wasn't paying enough attention to A50.

Luca's been pushing me all game and trying to force me to play the game as he would play the game, which does nothing but piss me the Hell off. He could be Town, or he could be Scum and is trying very hard to try and mislynch me because he thinks I'm an easy target.

*Townread on Menalque for asking pointed questions despite his atrocious vote.

Menalque, Hectic, Reundo, and Dolly all were very quick to jump on the wagon, for NO reason.

Luca initiated the wagon. Tea held back.

Scum is definitely on my wagon. I don't know if it's Luca because he's obstinate and narrow-minded and has been tunneling on me all game.

But the other 4? Those I worry about the most.

1.04 - Tea (3): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf
1.06 - Tea (6): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf, Billy Pilgrim, Zote the Mighty, NorwegianboyEE
1.07 - Tea (7): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf, Billy Pilgrim, Zote the Mighty, NorwegianboyEE, Vorkuta
1.08 - Tea (5): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf, Zote the Mighty, Vorkuta
1.09 - Tea (4): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf, Vorkuta
1.10 - Tea (4): Reundo, Saladman27, Flavor Leaf, Vorkuta

(Both hop off Tea)

1.11 - Not Voting (4): Zote the Mighty, Flavor Leaf, Almost50, PMysterious
1.12 - Not Voting (3): Flavor Leaf, Almost50, PMysterious
1.13 - Not Voting (2): Almost50, Flavor Leaf
1.14 - Tea (2): Gamma Emerald, Almost50 (Flavor Leaf Not Voting)
1.15 - Tea (3): Gamma Emerald, Almost50, NorwegianboyEE (Flavor Leaf Not Voting)
1.16 - Not Voting (3): Billy Pilgrim, Almost50, Flavor Leaf
1.17 - Not Voting (5): Billy Pilgrim, Almost50, PMysterious, Hectic, Flavor Leaf
1.18 - Hectic (1): Almost50 (Flavor Leaf Not Voting)
1.19 - Hectic (1): Almost50 (Flavor Leaf Not Voting)
1.20 - Hectic (1): Almost50 (Flavor Leaf Not Voting)

2.02 - Flavor Leaf (8): Wake88, Hectic, davesaz, Dolly Parton, Dunnstral, NorwegianboyEE, Almost50, Chemist1422 (LYNCH)

3.03 - Luca Blight (5): splitfarvle, NorwegianboyEE, Wake88, Almost50, Dolly Parton


What can we extrapolate from this?

They were both on Tea for most of Day 1, but did they really commit or was it for show?

I'm almost certain there was at least one other Scum besides A50 on the FL wagon.

hmmmm

4

I feel like you and davesaz should be joining in the game more Day 4.

VOTE: Wake88

Up for lynching Dolly today as well.

VOTE: Wake

Turns out even Norwee is a self-voter. My faith in MS has been shattered.

Without reasoning these also seem opportunistic.

The following is public knowledge: the setup consists of a Town faction versus a single groupscum faction, where "groupscum" is defined as having more than one player. It is not public knowledge whether other alignments exist in the game.

That last sentence REALLY bothers me, because it says it's not public knowledge whether OTHER alignments exist in the game. It doesn't specifically say there's only Town and one Scum faction and that's it. If that's what the mod wanted he would have made that very clear. This to me means that PUBLICLY we have no knowledge on there being other alignments in this game. This means there COULD be another Mafia team OR, I think, a Serial Killer. Like 3-4 Mafia and an SK.

Obviously this could conflict with your Vig claim.

I really would like our mod to clarify this once and for all.

Chennis I can take the time and pet them like a barking Labrador and calm them down.

Menalque’s all fine and dandy until I start to pet him

What the fick
Also VOTE: wake

I don't want to lynch wake. I'm biased and I confess to it. I want to play with him some, so maybe let him be till D2. I don't have a solid read on him though, so I'm not going to fight against the wagon too hard, but I certainly am not going to vote him unless someone brings up some solid evidence why he should be the lynch today.

+1

He also always had a tendency to take heat really easily, so even if that weren’t the case, I still have reason to not want that wagon today.

Just noticed this post. Both Almost50 and Flavor Leaf wanted me to stay in the game and defended me, while Gamma, who we now know is Town, opted to vote for me.

So this yells me the Scum team, at that point, intended to leave me alive. I don't think FL really explained why he wanted to keep me around. What I'm doing is looking at those posts around that time period to see if anyone else behaved like A50 and FL. Davesav didn't really get to that point in 806, but it felt like he was shifting a bit his focus from me to someone else.

If you guys can remember anyone else besides A50 or FL that were defending me like they were, that could likely be one of the Scum members. Based on what those two were doing early on they probably thought I'd be valuable to them late-game.

Got some time now.
I don't believe town!Wake honestly believes more scum other than Almo and Leaf were keeping him alive for some unknown secret reason, and there might be even

more

members of the scumteam who were doing the same. Why in the world would 3+ scum defend Wake like he's valuable to them?
Also, town!Gamma defending Wake has nothing to do with the other scum defending him.

Either Wake is scum who was defended by his scum buddies, or he's town and scum were off his wagon to look better and since no other scum were in danger of being lynched on counterwagons. Leaning towards the former.

VOTE: Wake

If you actually think about it, it makes sense.

They could very well have wanted me to survive until late game because they think I'd be easy to mislynch late game. Haven't you ever seen Scum do this in other games where they let a sub-optimal Townie survive later in the game while getting rid of the stronger ones earlier?

If you noticed, both those two in a very short amount of posts agreed that they wanted me to be left over. If presumably half of the Scumteam was intent on that, is it unsafe to think the other unknown members wouldn't?

As Town you should be able to see why they might want me to be around late-game. It's not like I'm that active or am a strong Town-force to them. Your reaction is overblown. I do not like that.

And Gamma wasn't defending me in that quote either, Sir. That means that point is moot. Gamma voted for me while the two Scum defended me.

Looking at what the two Scumflips were doing by defending me, I have good reason to suspect that anyone else alive who was defending me just might be a good place to look at.

I want to hear your response to this Hectic before proceeding.

^This is every post in Wake's ISO this day phase that could possibly be construed as game solving (the other half is either him defending himself or casting doubt on Luca as the vig, which is completely unnecessary at this point btw -- there were a couple of questions he asked in his ISO too which I'll address a bit later). Notice how he casts shade on a lot of slots yet never states who he thinks is most likely to be scum or any of his actual scum reads. Like, take the fourth post quoted for example -- he says "I'm almost certain there was at least one other scum on A50" yet never gives any indication of who he thinks that scum actually is, and that whole post just reads like busy work made to look like he's actually scum-hunting without ever having to draw any meaningful conclusions himself. He hasn't even

voted

anyone this entire read despite suspecting like half the player list. In fact, the only indication of any sort of concrete read that isn't a vague "scum could be in this group" or "I'm worried about these players" is #1797 when he townreads Mena, which he seemingly takes back 20 posts later in #1817 when he puts him in the pool of players he's "worried" about (which he ignored when I asked him about it). They're the second/third posts in the spoiler, btw.

And not giving many reads or even voting would be one thing if he actually interacted with players much, which he claims is how he scum reads, yet if you read through the rest of his ISO this day most of his interactions are him defending himself in response to other players (mainly Luca and briefly Dunn in the begginning). In fact, the only times I saw where he actually went out to initiate conversation with him completely unprompted was asking Dolly why she voted him (which actually isn't that unprompted since it still involves him), asking Luca if he townread Tea (which is very easy to find out with a quick ISO search) and a few comments about whether the setup is multi-ball (it's not, and this has been talked about already) and casting doubt on Luca as the vig (which I mean if he wasn't he's completely screwed over anyone, and there's no way he's being lynched this day phase regardless), so even in this light he hasn't been doing much scum-hunting at all (which is another point I brought up of him earlier that he also completely brushed aside).

I mean sure his activity has gone up quite a bit since D1 but overall he hasn't done much scum-hunting at all. Pretty consistently, his ISO mostly compromises of him defending himself or just casting shade on other slots (most of which directly involve either scum-reading or voting him). Neither of these are that bad on their own, but when coupled with his consistent lack of reads or interactions that don't directly involve him in some way it reads like he's much more concerned about not getting lynched than doing actually scum-hunting. And again, considering he's scum-reading like half of the playerlist, you'd think he'd at least throw his vote on

someone

by now, but he doesn't even seem motivated enough to do that, which demonstrates his reluctance to make any strong/definite stances.

[Reundo]

I don't think davesaz looks great here either. The last couple of pages give me a similar impression to Wake as in there's a bit of analysis in there (mostly surrounding wagons) yet not a lot of definite conclusions regarding who his main scum-reads are. He did a bit of game-solving during D1 but that's dropped off considerably, and I don't think he's given many if any reads at all past his big reads-list (which wasn't really all that impressive either). Also don't really see a reason for him to be holstering his vote either.

[Reundo]

And as to you question as to why I jumped in on your wagon. It felt right. I want to see if/how it builds and if it gets close to a lynch then I will re-revaluate my stance. Right now it's just an info-getting-vote, if you will.

What happened to your "town clear" on Wake?

Also, you were the fourth vote on the wagon, which proves the wagon was already built up by that point (and brings him pretty close to a lynch by itself), so voting him to see "if/how it builds" doesn't make any sense when it was already half-way through.

So now everyone wants to believe me. I get shade for "town clearing" wake and I get shade for voting him the next day when it was a clear sheep-info-vote which I said it was in the post you

QUOTED!

So The Final Scum:

Dave and Pisskop.

***Maybe Wake/Hectic.
****Prolly not Hectic
*****Wake maybe.

Saying it's a "clear sheep-info-vote" implied that your read hasn't changed on Wake, yet according to the second post quote here your read

has

changed, at least significantly enough to where you aren't town-clearing him anymore, which begs the same question: what changed regarding your "town clear" on him?

[Hectic]

Woah, some great analysis from Ruendo here. Articulated my thoughts on Wake and Dave perfectly.

@Wake: You should be claiming round about now.

[Hectic]

Jeez Louise Finch, Dolly's interactions with Dunn are so scummy. Ruendo summed up why, but also how she sets that "scum trap" for Dunn where she contradicts herself in one post, and then claims scum!Dunn couldn't help but point it out when he inevitably does.

Also, Wake shouldn't be cleared off her declaring a guilty on him. The reaction was NAI and could easily be faked. In fact, I'm a little incredulous that his immediate reaction was to call her suicidal as if she was a town lying, rather than a scum faking.

I could see it being Dolly + Wake but that seems far too easy. I'd like to have both claim their roles.

[Reundo]

Mena feels pretty towny to me. Don't really jive with most of Luca's case on him. Mena's opening was a little weird but he didn't really press Luca on it for long so I don't really see how it's scum-indicative. Although, there was something he said about Mena earlier that stuck out to me regarding him "lasering in on certain things and ignoring others", because that was basically the same impression I got from him, though I'm not entirely convinced it's scummy either since I could see it being explained by town!him being tunneled on Norwegian. His drop in game-solving after the last game day is a notable as well but overall he's been pretty consistent in game-solving and probing others, and I haven't noticed any really left-field read swaps or progressions from him either, so I don't entirely get most of the scum-reads on him.

[Reundo]

Maybe Luca is just scum

I was kind of going back and forth yesterday evening on whether he was genuinely undecided on Norway or just defending him and attempting to redirect to A50

Calling that a good defence is making me think it’s the latter

Also, I was skimming through Mena's ISO and I found this post, and I was thinking this would be a pretty bold thing for scum!Mena to say, considering he'd know he'd look terrible after Norwegian flipped town, which would only look even worse if Almost flipped before he did (which he did). I mean obviously there'd be a scum motive in him scum-reading Luca for trying to re-direct to his scum buddy, but if he was scum wouldn't it look better just to say something like "I see where you're coming from but I still think Norway's scummier", which'll accomplish roughly the same thing w/o looking considerably worse when Almost flips scum? Like I'm kind of not seeing why scum!Mena would tunnel Norwegian so hard and case him so extensively to presumably look towny yet also jeopardize his town-cred by hard-defending a buddy who wasn't even under a lot of suspicion.

[davesaz]

My only doubt on Mene right now is his weird gamestate scumread on Luca. He was townreading Wake to such an extent that he thought Wake was the counterwagon to Luca? Why couldn't it have been TvT, and

why is Wake the scum over Luca in the case of TvS?

His short answers to my questions on it indicate he doesn't really want to talk about it much either.

Didn't the Wake wagon come up first?
I'm not sure about the underlined part, the first part says you think Mena thought Luca was scum over Wake.

Pedit: @Luca: For that VC look at the relative times of the first votes on you/split/wake. People talk "counter" in terms of numbers/competing wagons but timing could matter as well. Yeah, I can look for it too, possibly will.

Yeah, so if the Wake wagon came up first, why would a Luca counterwagon mean Luca was scum? Doesn't it make more sense for Wake to be scum and Luca town since he came after?

But you're saying the opposite of the underlined part now. You asked a question why is Wake scum over Luca, and then answered it by saying he is. If you agree with it then why are you asking the question? Much confusion...

[davesaz]

In reply to 2019.
I agree that would be bold, but Menalque strikes me as an overall bold player. If he is scum, and had a couple town in his pocket, making those types of moves would reinforce the pocket.

[Hectic]

My only doubt on Mene right now is his weird gamestate scumread on Luca. He was townreading Wake to such an extent that he thought Wake was the counterwagon to Luca? Why couldn't it have been TvT, and

why is Wake the scum over Luca in the case of TvS?

His short answers to my questions on it indicate he doesn't really want to talk about it much either.

Didn't the Wake wagon come up first?
I'm not sure about the underlined part, the first part says you think Mena thought Luca was scum over Wake.

Pedit: @Luca: For that VC look at the relative times of the first votes on you/split/wake. People talk "counter" in terms of numbers/competing wagons but timing could matter as well. Yeah, I can look for it too, possibly will.

Yeah, so if the Wake wagon came up first, why would a Luca counterwagon mean Luca was scum? Doesn't it make more sense for Wake to be scum and Luca town since he came after?

But you're saying the opposite of the underlined part now. You asked a question why is Wake scum over Luca, and then answered it by saying he is. If you agree with it then why are you asking the question? Much confusion...

Oh, right. That should say: "why is Luca scum over Wake in the case of TvS?"

[davesaz]

If I had to choose one of Luca or Menalque to be scum it would definitely be Menalque.
I actually think they're both town. It seems unlikely that I'll have to make that choice anyway.

VOTE: Wake
The VCA I posted last night says this is scum. There is room for Wake and a partner on the Luca wagon that popped up.

[Tea]

Dolly's slot is tearjerkingly bad but Dave's is sort of "play it safe" bad

If you're questioning my comments about rl you're lucky I'm on the phone rn and don't want to fuck with trying to format this comment properly. Never ever question what i say about rl distractions.

No I'm questioning your belief in your stances