Open 770: Monty Hall Mafia (Game Over)

[the worst]

ngl ottomh i don't really understand your kill or NUbers'

[Elsa Jay]

What do you mean my kill? Whut?

[the worst]

that was in response to PP
you're extremely alive rn

[Elsa Jay]

Oh.

Well again. Framing and shit.

[Elsa Jay]

Also, of everyone alive, Penguin was the person least likely to get lynched. I'd have poisoned him too in that situation.

[the worst]

i think that's probably fair

[Elsa Jay]

How could you poison a fellow bird, worst?

[the worst]

honestly i'm basically cleared via another bird being poisoned.

[Elsa Jay]

Ducky be honest. Do you still distrust me?

[PenguinPower]

honestly i'm basically cleared via another bird being poisoned.

Hmm...

[the worst]

Ducky be honest. Do you still distrust me?

i'm trusting you more as this phase is going on.

[the worst]

honestly i'm basically cleared via another bird being poisoned.

Hmm...

this was a shitpost
but it's not untrue

[Elsa Jay]

Ducky be honest. Do you still distrust me?

i'm trusting you more as this phase is going on.

Okay. That makes sense.

Why should we trust you over Pop or Chemist then?

[the worst]

at a really basic level i'm not sure that my voting pattern makes any sense as scum but outside of that like
i need to reread pretty badly because i'm worried my reads have been upside down

either i WAS right on you you're pocketing me really well in which case i've misread one of chem/pops anyway or i was wrong on literally every read

[popsofctown]

I don't think town!worst would lolhammer nona like that but then also pick the d2 protect while I am hibernating and can give no input

Unless he townreads me but thinks I am worthless and not actually useful or worth listening to

I don't think he would think that though

[popsofctown]

I have to look up how the montyhall math goes because I think it is useful to think about the actual % improvement elsa has

nona was going to do that I was going to convince her she is Bingle and make her do it but you murderlated her

[popsofctown]

murderlate is a Bingle word

it all comes full circle

[popsofctown]

PP had a 2/5ths chance to be scum, but then the 2/5ths is evenly distributed amongst pops, worst, and Chemist, who were all 2/5ths before. 2/5s over three is 2/15. 2/5+ 2/15 is 8/15. So pops, worst, and Chemist are each 8/15 to be scum. That's actually like surprisingly weak because there's 4 slots with 2 scums so by default they would be 7.5/15 to be scum!?!?

[popsofctown]

so you use addition to figure out how much probability Elsa Jay should have
pops + worst + Chemist is 24/15 scum.
For the math to be correct you need 30/15 scum because there are two scums.
So Elsa Jay is 6/15 scum

[popsofctown]

WAIT

THAT'S 2/5

WHICH IS THE STARTING ODDS

JUST LIKE THE DOOR YOU PICKED IN MONTY HALL KEEPS THE STARTING ODDS IT'S 1/3RD


OMG MATH IS FUN

[popsofctown]

VOTE: unlock goat friend to take home even if hammer

[popsofctown]

EJ - 40%
worst - 53.3%*
pops - 53.3%
Chemist - 53.3%

worst still has reduced probability from yesterday, I think. Like the event didn't not happen. But I'm not sure how you math it in

[popsofctown]

EJ do you feel like 40% likely to be scum does that feel right
make a post in a scum PT saying "I am currently stretching my lower back" and if making the post feels good my math is 60% wrong

[popsofctown]

I want to figure out how to math in the day 1 skew also
it matters for the Honor of my people

[popsofctown]

I am composing and deleting a lot of posts with confused math here