Big Four Mafia! Game Over!

[Doctor Drew]

Yoda is scum in my eyes, I feel like Turkey is town and is just overly confused by the game so far. By POE I would say jjh is likely scum, but not as confident as I feel about Yoda.

[Doctor Drew]

And this is with Alch and Creature, if I wasn't already clear about that.

[Titus]

Yoda is scum in my eyes, I feel like Turkey is town and is just overly confused by the game so far. By POE I would say jjh is likely scum, but not as confident as I feel about Yoda.

I'm not 100% sure on Turkey. My gut says he's scum but his play might be too inconsistent to be a wolf. (That's different than too bad to be a wolf.) It's why I am reaching out.

I wish Yurkin was here. Without him, it will be immensely hard to get a lynch.

I'm like 75/25 on Chennisden town, Creature scum. 5% both town or both scum. 20% Creature town/Chenn scum. The odds make me not want to lynch Creature today.

Are you at the same place with the PoE pool?

[gobbledygook]

Titus, I know you don't want to hear this, but it must be said.

I did my patented Activity Flow analysis and the biggest suspect it has identified is Yurkin. He is criminally lurking in this game. I will post the graphs of every player other than myself or Titus in a few minutes.

[Titus]

Titus, I know you don't want to hear this, but it must be said.

I did my patented Activity Flow analysis and the biggest suspect it has identified is Yurkin. He is criminally lurking in this game. I will post the graphs of every player other than myself or Titus in a few minutes.

Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm open to it. Please do post.

Plus, if you're wrong, I hope you'd be open to it.

You have a mighty big common sense hurdle to overcome but go for it.

[chennisden]

I meant more leaving the PT cop to just roam free all game, even though town PT cop would be their biggest threat.

In Alchemist's defense, scum vanillaized the known role n1, the doctor n2, and went for the win n3 in a scum!Drew world.

I just don't buy scum!Drew letting me live here. He'd be better off with the same night actions and Egix dead.

This is probably not true

[chennisden]

Wait

I was reading your second line and I thought it said something it didn't, now I'm just confused

[Doctor Drew]

I am 95% sure Creature is scum. I find it HIGHLY coincidental that he put the scum PT cop in a hood with the person who has scum read me all game, especially when scum is looking for that one last mislynch (we are in Mylo/lylo right?). Like you said Titus, they just thought you would blindly lynch me without any question.

And yes, I don't see Chenn as the same alignment as Creature.

[chennisden]

Hmm

I think it's just {Alch Creature someone someone} and Drew is just town now

[chennisden]

Hmm

I think it's just {Alch Creature someone someone} and Drew is just town now

[chennisden]

This game is hard

[gobbledygook]

Activity Flow Analysis

I do this analysis from time to time to help me understand the game state better. It is a simple graphical representation of an individual player's posting habit. I manually count how many days there are in a game (make exceptions for when the thread is locked for night/mod issues) and then I tally how many posts an individual player has made on any given day. I then turn this data into a line chart to get a better idea of their overall posting habits. This allows me to see the general "trend" of an individual player's posting frequency (is their frequency trending upward, or downward). It also allows me to see if there are any peculiar posting habits. Is a player popping in every few days and posting a lot (marked by many peaks and valleys), or are they more consistently a low poster (marked by plateaus or lower peaks).

Why do I do this? I am under the strong belief that players more often than not post less as scum and generally try to lurk. There are a number of reasons that a scum would want to lurk Principally, less posting means less opportunity to have your thoughts/play scrutinized and thus lowers the likelihood that you will be discovered. Additionally, I also think that the majority of players do not like playing as scum and lurk by default. Before anyone asks, yes, I have done this as scum. Before anyone asks, yes, the hypothesis held and my own activity flow showed me as scum.

I have saved all of the relevant information into an Excel file. But without further ado, I present The Big Four Activity Flow.

Spoiler: Big 4 Activity Flow

Yurkin


JJH


Yodavader


Doctor Drew


Alchemist


Blatant Scum


Creature


Chennisden

Analysis:
Three people have clearly positive trend lines (denoted by the dashed horizontal line across the chart): Blatant Scum, Chennisden, Doctor Drew. Alchemist does have a positive trend line, but it is a very weak positive. The rest of the game has negative trend lines (Creature, JJH, Yodavader, Yurkin).

Positive trend lines indicate that an individual has increased their activity over the course of the game. Negative trend lines indicate that an individual has decreased their activity over the course of the game. In my experience, scum tend to have negative trend lines. They get in, show their face, get a couple of town reads, and then coast on that.

Both Creature and Alchemist get a large percentage of their total post count on a single day. Creature is the worst offender. On December 3, Creature posted 110 times. That accounts for 38% (110/289) of his total post count. That was Creature's second day in the game. He has not approached that level of activity since December 3. He did have a little burst of activity on December 6 and 7 posting 37 and 46 times respectively. Since that time, a time span of two weeks, Creature has posted only 69 times, accounting for 23.8% of his total posts. He also did not post

at all

for 5 days. That type of behavior is highly suspicious and indicative of a scum member coasting on getting town read quickly upon arrival in the game.

On November 23, Alchemist posted 47 times. This accounts for 23.5% of his total post count. That means one fourth of his total posts came on one day. To remind everyone what happened on November 23, that was the day the game opened for Day 2. TrueSoulEnergy revealed Alchemist visited Pisskop which then forced Alchemist to claim his role. Alchemist's Activity Flow is interesting because that single day widely out paces all of his other days. He frequently has 0-3 posts a day which also indicates scum coasting.

Yurkin has two massive spikes in activity that dwarf the rest of his posting. On October 31, Yurkin posted 39 times accounting for 25.1% (39/155) of his total posts. On November 25, Yurkin posted 29 times, accounting for 18.7% (29/155) of his total posts. Together, those two days account for nearly half of his total posts in this game. For context, this game has been going on for almost 2 months. Since November 25, Yurkin has the most days of 0 posts out of anyone player in the game with

14

. If you count the 0 post days before November 25, Yurkin has a staggering

23 days

where he

did not post at all

. That to me screams lurker.

Due to these trends, my top suspects are Yurkin, JJH, and Creature. The activity flow of Blatant Scum, Chennisden, and Doctor Drew make me less inclined to follow a wagon onto any of those players.

+1

[chennisden]

I think if Alch is town lurkers are more likely to be scum because they're just letting the Alch lynch happen and are content with this

[gobbledygook]

Another interesting activity flow is Yodavader. He is generally not a prolific poster with the most posts in a single day coming from that slot occurring on December 8 with a whooping

6 posts

. Moreover, Yodavader has

13

0-post days since November 25. In addition, he has 24 total 0-post days. To amend my earlier statement about Yurkin, Yoda has the most 0-post days in the game of any slot. I find this slot less appealing as a lynch candidate because this seems to be Yodavader's activity level. It has not deviated really at all over the entire course of the game. That being said, this type of player is not going to be caught using Activity Flow simply because it is impossible to find a true pattern with how little they post.

[chennisden]

This is interesting, but it seems like it can quickly become a tool for confbias.

[Doctor Drew]

I think if Alch is town lurkers are more likely to be scum because they're just letting the Alch lynch happen and are content with this

I go opposite on that take, mainly because he is scum. They would rather lurk then defend.

They are reading how the day is going and would rather see him lynched rather than defend him and possibly implicate themselves. I believe they feel that, while not ideal for them, they still have a good shot at winning.

Creature has posted blindly believing Alch a bit, does make me scratch my chin a bit.

[gobbledygook]

This is interesting, but it seems like it can quickly become a tool for confbias.

It is merely a tool in the toolbox. It is not the end all be all.

[Alchemist21]

The y-axis on Yoda's graph doesn't even break double digits but you're completely silent about him. Why is that?

p-edit: Nevermind, you now have.

[Titus]

Gobble, what would your analysis say on Lavender?

[gobbledygook]

Gobble, what would your analysis say on Lavender?

I don’t know. Probably that Lavendar is a lurker. I didn’t do the analysis on people whose alignment is confirmed (dead, or through roles).

[Titus]

Gobble, what would your analysis say on Lavender?

I don’t know. Probably that Lavendar is a lurker. I didn’t do the analysis on people whose alignment is confirmed (dead, or through roles).

Well I expect town apathy due to the mislynches. Also, zero post days are possible scheduling. To get the most of this, you'd need my most hated tool...meta.

[chennisden]

I think at this stage focusing too much on activity rather than motivations is distracting

[Titus]

I think at this stage focusing too much on activity rather than motivations is distracting

Do you think Yurkin and BS are conftown?

[chennisden]

I think Yurkin is less likely to be town than you think, BS is not conftown by vanillaizer because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

I think BS is town but not for reasons scum can wifom

[chennisden]

Like of course, we're not lynching either of them, no