Big Four Mafia! Game Over!

[chennisden]

But I think you've written off both of them maybe when you shouldn't have

[Alchemist21]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

I'd buy this if the n2 kill wasn't pisskop.

[Alchemist21]

What does the Pisskop kill have to do with scum potentially vanillaizing their own PR?

[Titus]

What does the Pisskop kill have to do with scum potentially vanillaizing their own PR?

I doubt scum would refuse to vanillaize anyone.

[gobbledygook]

Lavender

(9): jjh927, Doctor Drew,

gobbledygook, Gamma Emerald, Egix96

, Yodavader, Blatant Scum,

Titus

, Creature

pisskop

(4):

Crimson97

, yurkin,

Looker

Blatant Scum (2):

pisskop, Lavender

Flubbernugget

(1): Alchemist21

Gamma Emerald

(1):

Flubbernugget

jjh927 (1): Chennisden

---

Gamma Emerald

(8): Blatant Scum, Doctor Drew,

pisskop, Egix96, Titus, Looker, Gobbledygook

, Alchemist21
Chennisden (2):

Flubbernugget, Gamma Emerald

Flubbernugget

(2): YodaVader, yurkin
Doctor Drew (1): Chennisden
Creature (1): jjh927

Looker

(1): Creature

---

Looker

(7): Alchemist21, Doctor Drew,

Gobbledygook

, jjh927, Chennisden,

Looker, Flubbernugget

Doctor Drew (3):

Titus

, Creature, Blatant Scum
Not Voting (3):

Egix96

, yurkin, YodaVader

===

Interesting that Doctor Drew was on all three lynch wagons.

[chennisden]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

[chennisden]

Either of those lead to the same conclusion

[Titus]

Coloring yourself green on VCA is dishonest

[chennisden]

I agree

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

Not n2 with this many investigatives.

For BS, he could have so many lies as outs if anyone died.

[chennisden]

Also coloring a bunch of VCs, while marginally helpful, is not the same as actually offering commentary

I think you're hiding behind your tools gobble

[chennisden]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

Not n2 with this many investigatives.

For BS, he could have so many lies as outs if anyone died.

Why would they vanillaize their nightkill tho

[chennisden]

But yeah that's true if he was scum he could have a ton of excuses

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

Not n2 with this many investigatives.

For BS, he could have so many lies as outs if anyone died.

Why would they vanillaize their nightkill tho

It would give them an out for later.

But it wouldn't happen in this case.

[chennisden]

Yea I agree w/ that

Maybe they're scared if their NK doesn't go out I guess, but that would be pretty unlikely

[gobbledygook]

Coloring yourself green on VCA is dishonest

Also coloring a bunch of VCs, while marginally helpful, is not the same as actually offering commentary

I think you're hiding behind your tools gobble

I posted it for my own ease. It’s annoying looking at it in draft form.

[chennisden]

Fair enough

[chennisden]

I sympathize with being too lazy to use notepad and having to say literally everything I think in thread, that's literally my playstyle

[gobbledygook]

Reading through Alchemist’s iso, I think he is scum.

VOTE: Alchemist

[Doctor Drew]

I sympathize with being too lazy to use notepad and having to say literally everything I think in thread, that's literally my playstyle

+1

[gobbledygook]

I think that Alchemist is a much better town player than the player that I see in this game.

[Alchemist21]

Explain.

[Yodavader]

Activity Flow Analysis

I do this analysis from time to time to help me understand the game state better. It is a simple graphical representation of an individual player's posting habit. I manually count how many days there are in a game (make exceptions for when the thread is locked for night/mod issues) and then I tally how many posts an individual player has made on any given day. I then turn this data into a line chart to get a better idea of their overall posting habits. This allows me to see the general "trend" of an individual player's posting frequency (is their frequency trending upward, or downward). It also allows me to see if there are any peculiar posting habits. Is a player popping in every few days and posting a lot (marked by many peaks and valleys), or are they more consistently a low poster (marked by plateaus or lower peaks).

Why do I do this? I am under the strong belief that players more often than not post less as scum and generally try to lurk. There are a number of reasons that a scum would want to lurk Principally, less posting means less opportunity to have your thoughts/play scrutinized and thus lowers the likelihood that you will be discovered. Additionally, I also think that the majority of players do not like playing as scum and lurk by default. Before anyone asks, yes, I have done this as scum. Before anyone asks, yes, the hypothesis held and my own activity flow showed me as scum.

I have saved all of the relevant information into an Excel file. But without further ado, I present The Big Four Activity Flow.

Spoiler: Big 4 Activity Flow

Yurkin


JJH


Yodavader


Doctor Drew


Alchemist


Blatant Scum


Creature


Chennisden

Analysis:
Three people have clearly positive trend lines (denoted by the dashed horizontal line across the chart): Blatant Scum, Chennisden, Doctor Drew. Alchemist does have a positive trend line, but it is a very weak positive. The rest of the game has negative trend lines (Creature, JJH, Yodavader, Yurkin).

Positive trend lines indicate that an individual has increased their activity over the course of the game. Negative trend lines indicate that an individual has decreased their activity over the course of the game. In my experience, scum tend to have negative trend lines. They get in, show their face, get a couple of town reads, and then coast on that.

Both Creature and Alchemist get a large percentage of their total post count on a single day. Creature is the worst offender. On December 3, Creature posted 110 times. That accounts for 38% (110/289) of his total post count. That was Creature's second day in the game. He has not approached that level of activity since December 3. He did have a little burst of activity on December 6 and 7 posting 37 and 46 times respectively. Since that time, a time span of two weeks, Creature has posted only 69 times, accounting for 23.8% of his total posts. He also did not post

at all

for 5 days. That type of behavior is highly suspicious and indicative of a scum member coasting on getting town read quickly upon arrival in the game.

On November 23, Alchemist posted 47 times. This accounts for 23.5% of his total post count. That means one fourth of his total posts came on one day. To remind everyone what happened on November 23, that was the day the game opened for Day 2. TrueSoulEnergy revealed Alchemist visited Pisskop which then forced Alchemist to claim his role. Alchemist's Activity Flow is interesting because that single day widely out paces all of his other days. He frequently has 0-3 posts a day which also indicates scum coasting.

Yurkin has two massive spikes in activity that dwarf the rest of his posting. On October 31, Yurkin posted 39 times accounting for 25.1% (39/155) of his total posts. On November 25, Yurkin posted 29 times, accounting for 18.7% (29/155) of his total posts. Together, those two days account for nearly half of his total posts in this game. For context, this game has been going on for almost 2 months. Since November 25, Yurkin has the most days of 0 posts out of anyone player in the game with

14

. If you count the 0 post days before November 25, Yurkin has a staggering

23 days

where he

did not post at all

. That to me screams lurker.

Due to these trends, my top suspects are Yurkin, JJH, and Creature. The activity flow of Blatant Scum, Chennisden, and Doctor Drew make me less inclined to follow a wagon onto any of those players.

+1

I like the graph and as of right now, I don't think my activity level will ever change but I do hope you take into consideration that there is a lot of shitposting that happens in games. I do see where you are going with this though and I applaud your work in taking the time to do it.

As for me, it's really my lack of being able to connect dots like everyone else and my fear of sounding scummy that prevents me from saying more.

[Titus]

Activity Flow Analysis

I do this analysis from time to time to help me understand the game state better. It is a simple graphical representation of an individual player's posting habit. I manually count how many days there are in a game (make exceptions for when the thread is locked for night/mod issues) and then I tally how many posts an individual player has made on any given day. I then turn this data into a line chart to get a better idea of their overall posting habits. This allows me to see the general "trend" of an individual player's posting frequency (is their frequency trending upward, or downward). It also allows me to see if there are any peculiar posting habits. Is a player popping in every few days and posting a lot (marked by many peaks and valleys), or are they more consistently a low poster (marked by plateaus or lower peaks).

Why do I do this? I am under the strong belief that players more often than not post less as scum and generally try to lurk. There are a number of reasons that a scum would want to lurk Principally, less posting means less opportunity to have your thoughts/play scrutinized and thus lowers the likelihood that you will be discovered. Additionally, I also think that the majority of players do not like playing as scum and lurk by default. Before anyone asks, yes, I have done this as scum. Before anyone asks, yes, the hypothesis held and my own activity flow showed me as scum.

I have saved all of the relevant information into an Excel file. But without further ado, I present The Big Four Activity Flow.

Spoiler: Big 4 Activity Flow

Yurkin


JJH


Yodavader


Doctor Drew


Alchemist


Blatant Scum


Creature


Chennisden

Analysis:
Three people have clearly positive trend lines (denoted by the dashed horizontal line across the chart): Blatant Scum, Chennisden, Doctor Drew. Alchemist does have a positive trend line, but it is a very weak positive. The rest of the game has negative trend lines (Creature, JJH, Yodavader, Yurkin).

Positive trend lines indicate that an individual has increased their activity over the course of the game. Negative trend lines indicate that an individual has decreased their activity over the course of the game. In my experience, scum tend to have negative trend lines. They get in, show their face, get a couple of town reads, and then coast on that.

Both Creature and Alchemist get a large percentage of their total post count on a single day. Creature is the worst offender. On December 3, Creature posted 110 times. That accounts for 38% (110/289) of his total post count. That was Creature's second day in the game. He has not approached that level of activity since December 3. He did have a little burst of activity on December 6 and 7 posting 37 and 46 times respectively. Since that time, a time span of two weeks, Creature has posted only 69 times, accounting for 23.8% of his total posts. He also did not post

at all

for 5 days. That type of behavior is highly suspicious and indicative of a scum member coasting on getting town read quickly upon arrival in the game.

On November 23, Alchemist posted 47 times. This accounts for 23.5% of his total post count. That means one fourth of his total posts came on one day. To remind everyone what happened on November 23, that was the day the game opened for Day 2. TrueSoulEnergy revealed Alchemist visited Pisskop which then forced Alchemist to claim his role. Alchemist's Activity Flow is interesting because that single day widely out paces all of his other days. He frequently has 0-3 posts a day which also indicates scum coasting.

Yurkin has two massive spikes in activity that dwarf the rest of his posting. On October 31, Yurkin posted 39 times accounting for 25.1% (39/155) of his total posts. On November 25, Yurkin posted 29 times, accounting for 18.7% (29/155) of his total posts. Together, those two days account for nearly half of his total posts in this game. For context, this game has been going on for almost 2 months. Since November 25, Yurkin has the most days of 0 posts out of anyone player in the game with

14

. If you count the 0 post days before November 25, Yurkin has a staggering

23 days

where he

did not post at all

. That to me screams lurker.

Due to these trends, my top suspects are Yurkin, JJH, and Creature. The activity flow of Blatant Scum, Chennisden, and Doctor Drew make me less inclined to follow a wagon onto any of those players.

+1

I like the graph and as of right now, I don't think my activity level will ever change but I do hope you take into consideration that there is a lot of shitposting that happens in games. I do see where you are going with this though and I applaud your work in taking the time to do it.

As for me, it's really my lack of being able to connect dots like everyone else and my fear of sounding scummy that prevents me from saying more.

It's the lack of talking that makes you sound scummy. I can't track your thoughts.