Mainstream Mafia II: D&D Edition [FIN]

[gobbledygook]

lol

[BBmolla]

UT is town

Don’t know where he is but at least he was town earlier might be culted now

[Almost50]

We have a uni backup in the game, so I doubt the leader being lynched kills the cultists.

Inte-bloody-resting! This also lines up with the mod's declaration that a Cult (in general) may still grow AFTER the original CL has died.

[Bingle]

Why would elements do this? It's not to his advantage, but more importantly it's not to town's advantage. Elements needs to hit cult, not scum, both for his sake and ours.

Why do you think this? If we hit cult today, do you still believe this?
If we hit cult leader today, do you still believe this?

Yes. There are presumably 4 cult. There are potentially 6 cult (Two nights of unsure motivation). Cult is absolutely the biggest threat. If there are six cult, it's certainly {Pine/UT/xof/KA/Two more}

Further, we as town can't trust Ele to shoot Rauth when Rauth is not a threat to Ele's wincon at all, so in the case that we lynch CL, he is the last person we should trust to shoot there.

[Bingle]

UT is town

Don’t know where he is but at least he was town earlier might be culted now

Because...?

[Bingle]

Ceph was already confirmed not cult leader unless his first two recruits were UT and xof (in which case fucking lol, that gambit deserved to win).

while also being menalque and insidejob?

Hey man, if I'm already ignoring the pk result fullclearing you from being cl to make a joke, I can certainly ignore flipped cult recruits for the same reason.

[Pine]

Rautherdir - Runelord

UT - Cult Leader (Much of the following is based on assessing those who are trying to divert away from a UT lynch for suspect reasons/alternate targets)
DEB - Likely recruit in earlyish game
EsperessoPatronum - Possibly cult, but could also just be wrong
BB - Probable recruit in late game
Bingle - Probable recent recruit

[KidAmn]

Bingle yeeting himself into the convo to shade everyone and anyone possible is sus af, agree likely not Leader but probably a recruit with the fewest associatives that might lead us to the rest of them.

[Cephrir]

We have a uni backup in the game, so I doubt the leader being lynched kills the cultists.

Inte-bloody-resting! This also lines up with the mod's declaration that a Cult (in general) may still grow AFTER the original CL has died.

have u tried reading the game

[Cephrir]

Yes. There are presumably 4 cult. There are potentially 6 cult (Two nights of unsure motivation). Cult is absolutely the biggest threat. If there are six cult, it's certainly {Pine/UT/xof/KA/Two more}

xof's character has never made two marks in a single night in the flavor

[Cephrir]

actually tbh if cult vanillaizes you as seems likely, xof can't be cult since she keeps being in the flavor?

[Bingle]

Yes. There are presumably 4 cult. There are potentially 6 cult (Two nights of unsure motivation). Cult is absolutely the biggest threat. If there are six cult, it's certainly {Pine/UT/xof/KA/Two more}

xof's character has never made two marks in a single night in the flavor

xof wouldn't necessarily be the cult recruiter, but would necessarily be cult if we had more than 4 cult remaining.

Why the assumption that culting vanilla-izes?

[Bingle]

^tbc, there is a specific reason that it almost certainly doesn't.

[Bingle]

Bingle yeeting himself into the convo to shade everyone and anyone possible

Pics?

[Almost50]

I mistyped. Literally the next post I corrected myself to "could still be cultrecruit". Are you actually even reading the game?

Yes, and here's where I'm at:

Ceph was recruited last night. THAT is what the bar closed for.
The Cult are lynching their Leader (DEB) so that Ceph can takeover.
Bingle and Pine are both culted, and they want UT gone so bad because he's the CULT COP. (Notice how Bingle out him the shooting pool regardless of DEB's flip?)
UT & xofelf are both still Town (xofelf is in Bingle' shoot pool if DEB flips CL. which he will)
PB us an awful IC for the push against Rauth and for trying to lynch UT over DEB (I think!).
Rauth is confirmed Mafia but we still need him for another night if my calculations are correct (Bungle says 5 cults, so either one hidden cultist that can't be targeted -maybe Ascetic??- or they are counting on Pine's motivator to get Ceph 2-shots tonight)
In short, we still need the Mafia AND the SK to side by us both day and Night before we all turn on each other. With the SK leaving the game (if what ML said is true) our only firepower at night would be through the Mafia. When we get the cult down to -say- 1 member (say in 8 alive) we can afford to lynch Rauth and see if he is indeed the last Mafia. If he is then we have just one cultist to lynch and win (and at that point I will officially switch to a Survivour). If he isn't then the remaining Mafia member will have to kill again at night (because most players alive will be confirmed, so they'd need the extra kill at night to have any chance if winning this) and -again- they could hit the remaining cultist for us so we need to only find that extra Mafia member if exists.

Thank you very much for your care and attention.

VOTE: DEB

[Almost50]

@Gobble: Do you see anything wrong in the above post?
@UT: If DEB flips CL, could you check Pine, perhaps?
@Rauth: Ceph would be a perfect shot if DEB is the CL., I fully agree.
@Elements: Care to shoot Bingle if DEB flips CL? (and whatever you do, so NOT shoot UT)

@Everyone else: I am open to questions (about the game I haven't been reading. Duh!)

[Bingle]

Respectfully, A50, you're moonlogicking all over the thread.

If there are 5 cult, xof necessarily is one of them. As is Pine via occam's. UT is crazy high cult equity because he's a claimed cult cop, and he's in the kill pool regardless of flip because he's spent the entire day phase not claiming a result, and thus isn't town. He's also one of the people who CAN be cult leader.

The list of people who CAN be cult leader is:

DEB, UT, xof, Rauth, myself, ML, dave and KA

[Cephrir]

Yes. There are presumably 4 cult. There are potentially 6 cult (Two nights of unsure motivation). Cult is absolutely the biggest threat. If there are six cult, it's certainly {Pine/UT/xof/KA/Two more}

xof's character has never made two marks in a single night in the flavor

xof wouldn't necessarily be the cult recruiter, but would necessarily be cult if we had more than 4 cult remaining.

Why the assumption that culting vanilla-izes?

not an assumption, but i kinda thought that explained bbmolla, and the wording of their flips is weird

[Cephrir]

Ceph was recruited last night. THAT is what the bar closed for.

The bar was closed "again."

As previously stated, this is because I have taken a role and am now leaving at night to use my role.

[Cephrir]

i have also done something at least somewhat provable, but i'd like to continue to not claim instead.

[Bingle]

not an assumption, but i kinda thought that explained bbmolla, and the wording of their flips is weird

TSE being recruited doesn't make sense if culting vanilla-izes since he would obviously be shown to be vanilla immediately.

[Almost50]

We should be lynching DEB, Shooting UT and one more. One more is kinda iffy to me, but I think the best arguments are for A50 and xof.

"We Lynch the original CL and bury all the evidence by shooting both the Cult Cop and the Cult Counter, and have town think that the Cult can't grow now, so we sneak to an easy in." is how I read this.

[Almost50]

Xof underselling the number of cultists is totally a great cultxof play to keep the focus off of them early

And so is offing them both in one go after you throw DEB under the bus and dim all lights off your team for town to blindly shoot each other (so to speak)

[Bingle]

UT has failed repeatedly to out his target last night.

UT is compromised.

Agree/Disagree

[Bingle]

Btw, if cult can continue to grow after CL is dead without severe restrictions, we're probably just straight boned.