Manito wrote:even though it has pretty much been covered that Post #258 wasn't really cases, but more fluff deductions without much in the way of additional opinion or substance, outside of summarizing the post count/content of 3 individuals, myself included.
I disagree. Pointing out the low post count is expressing the idea that two people are trying to slip under the radar. He also explicitly gave his opinions on Gimbo, saying while eccentric as always, Gimbo usually doesn't sit the fence like he had been.
On your case being flawed, I think the "change in playstyle" case is logical, but wrong. Suspecting him for refusing to start other cases before handling Forbid was valid, but when it was pointed out that this was a problem FL proceeded to show his cases. Because of this, I think that point is no longer of the same value it was before. Being unsure of Forbid is not scummy. Forbid's case was confusing, and one should not be forced to agree or disagree with a lynch they are unsure of. Not voting D1 is a valid scum tell, but a situational one. I think in FL's case it was not scummy because he came in as a replacement once Forbid's wagon was at full steam, so nearly all of the posting revolved around that. This could make it difficult to get a read of anyone else before the lynch came.
Do you have no response to my suspicion of you outside your FL case?
@Spyre: Damn you. You make me put so much time into this game. Rereads!
-->Joubert doesn't have much content in this game. I don't have a good read of him in either direction. He did slip onto the Forbid wagon relatively quietly, but from how much of a case had been presented against Forbid by the town as a whole, it becomes a fairly weak tell to say he didn't give his own reasons. If I had to choose, I'd say more town than scum, because he does ask some decent questions and spreads them out among several people.
-->Bogre same, very little content. Sort of active during the Forbid wagon, but like it has been pointed out no real original opinions. I don't find any contradictions in his posts, and I don't see a motive for him to lurk right now. Again, neutral leaning town.
-->LTG appeared normal up to page 12. I personally didn't find the "random counter-wagon" idea to be scummy. I took note of your(Spyre's) clue about LTG and Firestarter both throwing suspicion into the K7/Forbid mess without voting. I hadn't noticed that on my own, so I'm glad you pointed it out. That was the first thing that caught my eye, LTG's explanation for it wasn't too strong, but not really scummy either. I didn't agree with his post
374. He says he should vote more, then gives his reasons for suspecting FL, then doesn't vote. Also I do
not
think Firestarter leaving his vote in the same place when Gimbo became Llama is any indication of towniness. In 394 he also says he "doesn't like Gimbo/Llama" (who Firestarter is voting for) but says Gimbo's actions are par for his town play and Llama hasn't done anything wrong. Basically, he's saying he suspects them but isn't going to make a case because he admits he has nothing to go on. Also he makes his vote for K7 is wishy washy enough to stay there if a wagon builds but leave if no one else votes with him because his reasoning is "lurker motivation". LTG is my only possible scum read of the 4, but the case I have on him now is weaker than my own cases against KoC and Manito.
-->armlx is the only player I didn't go back and do a reread on because I've been keeping up with his posts the entire game. All his comments have been logical and helpful enough to point town. They have also been concise enough and timed well enough to be good scum. Basically I don't have anything in game to suspect him for, but he's the kind of player that worries me because he is so reserved. I won't make cases on that though, so armlx gets protown read because he's active, helpful, and gives no scum tells.
@Joubert 406: No it is not the same. I didn't think Gimbo was scum in the first place, but said he is erratic enough to watch. I also made this point
before
he was replaced, and after Llama came in I dropped him to neutral. KoC had said FL was looking townish, and hadn't put much emphasis on his suspicions of Gimbo either. Once Gimbo got switched out, he then votes for FL, even though he was leaning town on him 1 post before.
FL 409: OK, now you actually have screwed up. "any vote I posted would be lost or considered scummy" is an amazing scum tell. Votes that are based on solid ground are never scummy, and are only called so when scum themselves lie to make it that way. The only people who must worry about their votes looking scummy are scum, because they know before they place the vote that it is "wrong".
KoC 412: Tunnel vision is bad, so it's not okay to just say "so what?".
KoC 432: Saying the Gimbo/Llama switch took him off your list does not explain leaning town on FL in one post then voting him the next with no new posts from him to go by.
This is the order of events.
1. You point out you notice FL's playstyle has changed.
2. You say you are unsure of him.
3. You say you're leaning town on FL because he's
posting better
.
4. FL makes
1 post.
5. You vote FL.
This game is crazy. LoS would be;
----
Manito
KoC
FaerieLord
K7 (current vote)
Firestarter
LTG (barely)
----
Lists should never get that big. =(
