BooneyToonz XIII: To Boon or Not To Boon - [END]

[Titus]

The one that has the mediocre chance of flipping scum and the one that triggers you.

Guess who.

Nah, we aren't doing this guess who game.

[Bambi Jay]

I made the answer fucking obvious tho.

[Titus]

I made the answer fucking obvious tho.

I want it findable by searching.

[Bambi Jay]

The one you want lynched isn't the answer.

[Titus]

The one you want lynched isn't the answer.

This direct obtuseness is why I want you lynched as my backup. I can't even tell if you want one person or two people lynched.

[Bambi Jay]

I'm being obtuse the spite you, ya know. The One-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Namedropped will be voted tonight.

[Titus]

Bambi, if you're referring to chkflip, he doesn't trigger me. Opposing the most likely answer to the extent is frustrating and suspicious. It's players like RC and Albert B. Rampage who trigger me with their over the top aggressiveness and supposing everyone else is worse than them.

[Bambi Jay]

VOTE: Drew

Sorry I didn't make it obvious enough then. I meant "trigger you" as in not lynching your way btw. But yeah I can't in good faith follow you guys on Nips.

Though notice who's on the Drew wagon and realize I don't think this is the answer either. But it's better then Nips and gives up more info.

[Titus]

VOTE: Drew

Sorry I didn't make it obvious enough then. I meant "trigger you" as in not lynching your way btw. But yeah I can't in good faith follow you guys on Nips.

Though notice who's on the Drew wagon and realize I don't think this is the answer either. But it's better then Nips and gives up more info.

So, I'll lynch town because I can't follow onto scum and you enjoy annoying me.

Any wonder I think you're scum?

[davesaz]

Who else do you scumread enough to wagon? That should be the question for everyone because we've been stuck in something that looks like a 1v1 by proxy for a RL week or more and that's a red flag that something is wrong.

[davesaz]

V&M has more than 1/5 of the posts in the game on the hydra alone. It may be as many as 1/4 when including slips. Going strictly from memory, an uncomfortable percentage of those are posts that state something incorrect about what has gone before, causing a rehash of prior events. I don't know what this means yet.

[50 Judge Powers]

If it works like you described then it's being handled incorrectly. That's more of a postgame discussion than now since I can't overrule the mod, but it's wrong.

dave, when did you become like this? You were always one of the best in mechanics discussions! This is a THEMED game. How a role/modifier works is how the MOD (not the wiki) says it works. My modifier has a definition in Boon's Bank.

I mean, check this out:

I would have tried to visit Awestfie in an attempt to to test for scum. I would have been recharged, right?

I think my death might help. But I should have fought harder. I have bad habits from RL mafia. We claim a lot of weird shit.

Yep.

Action wouldn’t have gone through

on her.

However,

she did get a Sticky Fruit

, so

it wouldn’t have gone through either way

.

It’s the Critters game. It’s not mafia, so it’s not bad play there, haha.

I think I brought up that it was going to teach you bad habits, but I didn’t think anything of it until this game.

Like, I get why you did everything you did.

See? Action not going through because of the target, OR because of the Sticky Fruit are the same as far as Recharged goes.

I probably could come up with more, but the bottom line is the mod defines how his own roles and modifiers work in Themed Games.

[The Fonz]

I'm also suspicious of Aaron's claim because I recently finished a game with a mafia Doctor Enabler.

Oh, was it a real role or a fake one?

This was a real role and when the scum doctor enabler died, the town doctor lost its ability.

Was there a scum doc in that game as well? because otherwise, weird.

I saw one setup where all the scum were enablers for town power. They had cop, doc, vig and rb enablers. Quite clever anti swing mechanic, tbh.

[Bambi Jay]

VOTE: Drew

Sorry I didn't make it obvious enough then. I meant "trigger you" as in not lynching your way btw. But yeah I can't in good faith follow you guys on Nips.

Though notice who's on the Drew wagon and realize I don't think this is the answer either. But it's better then Nips and gives up more info.

So, I'll lynch town because I can't follow onto scum and you enjoy annoying me.

Any wonder I think you're scum?

Because Nips is clear from Almost, which is what you disagree with. I stand with Chk about the wonkiness of assuming enchantress and shiz.

[davesaz]

dave, when did you become like this? You were always one of the best in mechanics discussions!

The disagreement (whether I like the definition of what gets refunded or not) is on what the result means. It is most certainly

not a clear

-- at best it's a no result because of the possibility of a block that supercedes loyal/disloyal. Two other people also getting no result type answers when targeting you means that the blocking path is much more likely as a source of a refund.

The alternatives to enchantress require two blocking roles to target slots that they didn't know would even have actions (there are passive roles in role madness, right?) where the enchantress theory requires one blocking role who knows the target has claimed an action. The interpretation with fewer conditions is more likely. The reason I'm good at this part of the game is that the intuitive answer is also the mathematically more likely one, given true information to start with. It's also the reason I go rabid on people who fakeclaim as town because false information results in false answers. And I don't go easy on people who come to the wrong conclusion.

Spoiler: further detail

function p(event) returns a probability the event occurs in the range [0..1]
p(2blocks) = p(block1_exists) * p(block1_targets) * p(block2_exists) * p(block2_targets)
p(enchantress) = p(ench_exists) * p(ench_targets)

Remember that multiplying numbers between 0 and 1 always results in a smaller number for every term that is multiplied.
With p(ench_targets) being a large number approaching 1, the terms in the expression for p(2blocks) have to all be even larger numbers for it to even be close.

Putting that back into normal English, 50JP being targeted is so likely that in order to believe that Titus and Creature were both targeted you would have to believe it was essentially guaranteed that they would both be targeted. Furthermore, though I haven't brought it up yet, both theories are currently assuming that the blocking roles are scum. If the blocking roles were town they would have most likely spoken up. So scum would need 2 blocking roles on the team for the non-enchantress role theory.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, please ISO me for my case and lmk what you think of it. I'll save the thread a repeat, just looking for your opinion in particular. Adorable as well I suppose.

I've been avoiding this since it requires a wall and walling on my phone is a pita (I lost my kindle and my laptop died in the same month).

So your take is that the idea of an Enchantress is a Fairy Godfather, Drew is scum, and the VCA is worthless.

Some of your stuff is valid but I think you've gotten yourself into an oppositional mindset vis a vis Titus and it's colouring everything.

First, Drew. I don't think he's scum. As I said above, it feels like he's going out of his way to maximally antagonise people to no obvious end. You are correct that he's vote hopping to try to get town credit. Problem is

he openly admits to doing this

which is a weird move if scum. He picks a fight with a town leader type over fucking typos - who fucking does this? He makes pre flip associative, which looks like bad scumhunting to me. If it weren't contra booned, I am pretty sure at least one person would be Jester speculating about him rn.

Re the Role stopper/Enchantress conundrum, I kind of have the splinters in ass view that Enchantress is the most likely explanation, but not the only one. Both Titus' action on A50 and A50's on Nips can be explained by target being town. That leaves Creature, and RBing creature would be odd, but not impossible. I'm also just unsure what happens to desperate roles targeting ascetic scum. On play he looks worse than Drew, though "Bad newbie" is entirely possible.

I think the VCA has some validity. Three equal wagons to town lynch, with one of the other wagons getting an innocent investigation, suggests at least that I would expect different scum behaviour between the scenario where all three are town (I'd expect scum to stand harder behind their existing wagon, maybe vanity wagons, before piling on right at deadline with the cover of preventing no lynch) vs if the third is scum (where they'd be more willing to leave room to suit between the other two).

I'm minded to support the Nips lynch just to establish which of these two it is. It's definitely the more informative of the two flips. But I normally hate lynching for information as a justification.

I'd suggest if you are as sure as you represent yourself as being on Nips Town, poking around that period of the game and seeing if anyone fits the patterns you'd expect.

One thing I note is that if Titus is correct and the Haggle wagon emptying out onto RJ was an effort to protect Nips, three people are implicated. Aaron Frost, RCE, and Amrun.

Aaron we've discussed enough, in isolation I'd rather lynch him on play than either top wagon but I really want to keep Titus and Chemist alive through the night. RCE volunteered role info early, which is mildly suboptimal for scum. Amrun I think could be a decent wagon.

In fact,

Vote: Amrun.

Can obviously move if this goes nowhere, but worth a poke.

[The Fonz]

@Dave: was the modifier applied to Titus before or after the night action? I got the impression from Titus' play it was the latter, ergo RB theory only has to account for creature. But I'm stepping into work any second so don't have time to check back.

[davesaz]

Bambi's role I have seen played as both town and mafia.

I don't want you to straight up out the result. If you're town and Bambi Jay is town we're better off having you look at it using the additional info you have.
Take a look at my last post. In there I suggest that certain roles, that we seem to have seen the results of, are likely to have been caused by scum.

Likely but not certain. If the role has something to do with those events (meaning it is some form of blocking role), you should look at whether the handling of the role is town-like or scum-like. What were Bambi Jay's day 1 reads on those two players (Creature and Titus)? Is it reasonable for Town!Bambi Jay to hold back the information?

If the role doesn't have something to do with the events, then still look at how Bambi Jay handles the role.

[davesaz]

@Dave: was the modifier applied to Titus before or after the night action? I got the impression from Titus' play it was the latter, ergo RB theory only has to account for creature. But I'm stepping into work any second so don't have time to check back.

Titus said at the beginning of night. I actually find that to be a tiny bit suspicious. It implies either a mechanic caused it outside the scope of player roles or it was a day action. Having her blurt it out doesn't make sense as scum though, unless the scum team knows there is a way to tell that the result of her actions is incriminating. Which nets out to still having a TR there but it's less than fully solid.

[Titus]

I don't want you to straight up out the result. If you're town and Bambi Jay is town we're better off having you look at it using the additional info you have.
Take a look at my last post. In there I suggest that certain roles, that we seem to have seen the results of, are likely to have been caused by scum.

Correct. There's a reason I asked the way I did. Clemency's posts that he knew Bambi's role was town but later he had to look up what it did read as suspicious.

[Titus]

Titus said at the beginning of night. I actually find that to be a tiny bit suspicious. It implies either a mechanic caused it outside the scope of player roles or it was a day action.

Well beginning is a vague term. I didn't follow up. It just occurred before my action. I'm also not sure where Renegade goes in NAR according to Boon.

[Adorable]

Bambi's role I have seen played as both town and mafia.

I don't want you to straight up out the result. If you're town and Bambi Jay is town we're better off having you look at it using the additional info you have.
Take a look at my last post. In there I suggest that certain roles, that we seem to have seen the results of, are likely to have been caused by scum.

Likely but not certain. If the role has something to do with those events (meaning it is some form of blocking role), you should look at whether the handling of the role is town-like or scum-like. What were Bambi Jay's day 1 reads on those two players (Creature and Titus)? Is it reasonable for Town!Bambi Jay to hold back the information?

If the role doesn't have something to do with the events, then still look at how Bambi Jay handles the role.

I noticed you have been thinking Creature might be scum. Creature said he invested 50 on N1 but why would he want to invest 50 when he claimed on D1? I checked on day 1 to see if Bambi had any reads on Creature and Titus she did not give any reads on those players.

[Titus]

Creature said he invested 50 on N1 but why would he want to invest 50 when he claimed on D1?

If A50 is town, all his results are confirmed honest.

[Creature]

Actually I didn't realize A50 had claimed

[Venus and Mars]

Okay, Creature. You're town. I know this because I hacked into your computer and checked your role PM.
Vote Bambi with me.

-Hectic

Not interested

Bambi is town.

I think both Creature and Bambi are. Creature’s being irritable is actually town indicative for him and you can tell when it’s genuine and when it’s faked.