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Spare Votecount 1.8

Hectic ----------------------------------

(4)

Nachomamma8, Replica, Hectic, Amrun

Replica ---------------------------------

(1)

Chara

Farkran --------------------------------

(1)

Chemist1422

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

(1)

Farkran

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi ----------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

SherlockHolmes -----------------------

(1)

SherlockHolmes, Replica

alimdia ----------------------------------

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not sparing:

- (3) Sujimichi, alimdia, Psyche

Fight Votecount 1.8

Hectic ----------------------------------

Replica ----------------------------------

(1)

Chemist1422

Farkran ---------------------------------

(4)

Nachomamma8, Amrun, Sujimichi, Chara

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi --------------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

(1)

Farkran

SherlockHolmes ------------------------

(2)

Hectic

alimdia ----------------------------------

(1)

SherlockHolmes

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not Fighting:

- (3) Psyche, alimdia, Replica

<3<3<3<3<3<3<3<3

3>3>3>3>3>3>3>3>

Chara seemed a bit more skeptical of how much of a star Hectic is, after watching Hectic stumble around. Yet amidst the stumbling, Chara noticed that the icy edges perfectly matched the shape of Hectic's chin and kept his fit snug. Someone was an expert.
"I think I'd like to see what other hats Replica could make. We could each pick a design for Replica to make.
I'm a little selfish, you know. I want to wear clothes created by a monster for the first time. I think Mom may make something soon, but her first priority has been finding recipes she thinks are nutritious for me. I would love to wear a Replica hat, though."
Replica was lying on the ground, staring up at the sky, listening. They had been gently crying while Amrun excitedly described a game that sounded dangerous for Replica's introversion, but hearing Chara's kind words made their tears dry in the nonexistent corners of Replica's perfectly round eyes.
"It's ok if you pick the designs... when I made Hectic's costume I used Nachomamma8 as the design... I'm really best at the making part.. not the idea part.."
Chara sat on the ground next to Replica and looked up at the other monsters. "Replica is very consistent, I've seen them craft before. We could have a contest to see whose design is best. We can rely on Replica to make all the designs exactly the way they were asked, so the only thing to compare will be the ideas.
Chara looked down and saw Replica's eyes were completely dry, for the moment.

With eleven players alive, it takes six votes to make a decision.
This deadline is finalized, it will not change unless there is somehow an additional replacement:
(expired on 2020-02-01 19:00:00)

Replacement Key

[Farkran]

TOWN
Nacho
Amrun
Chara
Alimidia
Replica
Hectic
Chemist
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
SherlockHolmes
Psyche
Sujimichi
SCUM

I noticed the Amrun vs Suji part around page 6. I am likely hard-siding with Amrun there, this looks like her town meta. Might suffer from agreement bias, but i'll place this among my townreads for today. For the same reason i am inclined to townread Chara too. I mean, scumleaning/pressuring my pred is definitely not a bad sign, pre-replacement, but it's a lurker slot. There are no damning scumtells, and reconsideration is usually a town trait. Read the sujimichi part as a follow up to this.

Replica's suggestion in favor of sparing early, lynching later is... wrong, imo. We pretty much should NEVER spare, in my opinion. How does Spare benefit the town over playing this like a mountainous + FN? If Spare guaranteed a flip, or a significant bonus in endgame, it would be ok. But it does neither, unless we spare exactly 4 town, which i think is unlikely. However, Replica put faith into his argument, it is not scum-indicative of him. I townlean him, i just think we should not follow his strategy as we have nothing to gain from it. FTR i'm referring to 273 and follow-ups.

Probably some extent of agreement bias towards alimidia, but posts 287+ are well made. There is solvability and what looks like sane town paranoia in his words.

I am scumleaning on Billy/Sujimichi slot. I have meta with both, and both are usually much more proactive as town. Sujimichi has redeemable qualities, but right now he seems to be tunneling where he shouldn't be. I have read my pred's ISO, and it's a badly lurk-spotted ISO - i would also be inclined to fight there, but i don't consider it damning enough to create a hard tunnel on me based on my introduction. The post-replacement push in 395 feels forced, like he wants to consolidate a mislynch before people have time to reconsider. Being close to the deadline might validate this theory.

Pine is particularly scummy from my POV - i have played with both town! and scum!pine, he's been lurking in both versions but usually the scum one is more like, trying to busywork at least during the initial stages of the game. Didn't see any Psyche attempt to subvert that, which would be consistent with the current gamestate if he's scum. No need to spice things up when he's not voted by anyone.

Other reads are weaker. I have lots more to say, but i will be able to do so only later when i get back home. A lot of posts and interactions are complex and i will need to reread them, but for the time being,

HURT: sujimichi although i have some reservations over the fact that Amrun, Chara and Nacho are on the same wagons for Spare and Fight. I would like to hear more about what brought you to sheep each other with that regard.

[Chara]

we're all in your townreads. why do you have reservations about seeing us vote together?
i believe i explained the reasons for both of my votes in the post you asked for upon replacing in, too.

[Amrun]

Amrun is a difficult case in that i agree with what she's said, and can identify with that. such as 254 as i mentioned. (about not wanting to let up on Sujimichi) but i don't know if making sense is enough.

Amrun, what about Replica did you like more? besides the contextual mistakes, which were rectified when pointed out, i feel like their posting feel has been fairly consistent since they replaced in.

Idk, I still think his statements about Nacho’s town case on Hectic is busywork at best. It clearly never intended to go anywhere. I DON’T like that.

In general, I like that he’s being active and producing content.

I definitely do not want to spare him today.

[Amrun]

@Farkran:

Why am I sheeping anyone? You clearly read where I originated the Suji “wagon,” such that it is, so why ask me such a meaningless question?

[Psyche]

This is quite tough. Nothing super firm is coming easily. I hope the second read is a little easier.

[Farkran]

we're all in your townreads. why do you have reservations about seeing us vote together?
i believe i explained the reasons for both of my votes in the post you asked for upon replacing in, too.

I know a lot of people don't like to play d1 associatives, but i do. And i am wary when people who haven't established a clear townbloc are found voting together by coincidence. In this game specifically, where we have double VC per player, i think it's worth noting it. At this point that's just what it is though, a note. I will delve deeper into your interactions and progression to see if it makes sense.

[Farkran]

@Farkran:

Why am I sheeping anyone? You clearly read where I originated the Suji “wagon,” such that it is, so why ask me such a meaningless question?

Sheep is perhaps a wrong term to use in that context. I meant to say voting together, generally speaking, not necessarily making the distinction between independent thought vs sheeping. I will need to read your history again though.

While we are at it, @you three (chara, amrun, nacho), why do you find my slot scummy besides lurking?

[Amrun]

@Farkran:

A) I think it has been made pretty clear that Nacho and I intend to work together at least for now. Chara not so much but it doesn’t bother me. I’m the primary pusher of Sujimichi, and Nacho is the primary defender of Hectic, though I didn’t vote to spare until I decided I agreed based on something Hectic did that was towny. This is all in thread. Chara following us IS interesting, but I think we planned/hoped to be followed so it’s not really THAT interesting until there’s some flips to sort with.

B) you are the asriel slot, yes? If so, then being super awkward and nervous sounding and then when called on it, flaking out.

[Farkran]

Since i'm re-reading your ISO first, Amrun... on my first readthrough, all your posts sound like town, and that is why you have been placed that high in my readlist. On a second read, though, it seems that you are lacking a significant amount of internal consistency in your posts and i'd like to learn why.

Oh, and, I absolute agree that sparing only is a stupid strat that I won’t be participating in.

HEAL: Hectic

The only thing I’m happy healing atm.

This is one of the issues i have been talking about in my (second) introductory post. I also had the same first impression when reading the setup: sparing is scumsided. And i liked you because of that. But then you spare hectic and you seem to have no issues with it even when i highlighted that today's result seem closer to a spare than it is to a fight. Why?

HURT: Pine

I prefer my plan, but I will do this is there is not majority agreement.

HURT: Asriel


@Chara: why aren’t YOU pressuring Asriel as well if you agree?

But I do too, and I did say earlier I feel Asriel is off.

I simply didn’t want to let up on Sujimichi but his more recent contributions have definitely been better.

Let’s consolidate and choo choo.

HURT: Asriel Dreemurr

That was not a good response.

You say you are the primary pusher against sujimichi, and i did read your 1v1, placing you in the top slots of my readlist mainly because of that. In this re-read i compared the VCs to interactions, and once again i notice that you are having no issues with your primary scumread IMMEDIATELY sheeping you on a lurker slot that is now consensus scumread. I mean, sujimichi was voting the other lurker just ONE post prior to you voting my pred, then TEN posts later, in the same page, Sujimichi switch his vote on the other lurker - whose wagon was gaining traction - and you don't even question it? What makes you content with compromising with your strongest scumread, on a lurker slot no less?

[Amrun]

No I agree! I want to hurt Sujimichi. But deadline was approaching (like fast) and I didn’t have anything new to present on Sujimichi to convince anyone. I didn’t want to cause us to no action. Sparing Hectic isn’t the worst thing that could happen. The worst thing that could happen would be nothing which we were headed to rapidly (and still kinda are).

[Amrun]

Again, I don’t think you are quite understanding how slow this game is and how dangerously close we are to effectively no lynching. I specifically changed to asriel to consolidate, not because it’s my top choice at all. Voting with a scumread to achieve a lynch > no lynch

[Amrun]

Also, my level of conviction is not high enough on Sujimichi that it really bothers me all that much tbh.

[Farkran]

We are ~4 days to deadline now. Game might have been slow, but right now, with replacement extensions, we have plenty of time to avoid unnecessary no-flip sparing. I mean, even a lynch on my slot is better than sparing, but first i'd like to understand why you have been compromising on my pred as a lurker rather than lurker-pine, or sujimichi. I don't like my pred ISO too, but it's like 10 posts, and after learning my role PM my POV requires me to be wary of people opportunistically joining my wagon. Sujimichi was the vote that struck me most, and i am wondering why it didn't strike you (@amrun) as well.

[Sujimichi]

Again, I don’t think you are quite understanding how slow this game is and how dangerously close we are to effectively no lynching. I specifically changed to asriel to consolidate, not because it’s my top choice at all. Voting with a scumread to achieve a lynch > no lynch

I agree that either Farkran does not understand how the game state was prior to his replacing is, or he is intentionally ignoring. I am unsure which, though I would assume he has the ability to read prior posts and interpret the gamestate at that time.

[Sujimichi]

He is also ignoring that I was waiting to hammer the Spare and have been a proponent of Sparing, instead deciding to focus on the fact that I am voting the slot he replaced.

[Sujimichi]

We are ~4 days to deadline now. Game might have been slow, but right now, with replacement extensions, we have plenty of time to avoid unnecessary no-flip sparing. I mean, even a lynch on my slot is better than sparing, but first i'd like to understand why you have been compromising on my pred as a lurker rather than lurker-pine, or sujimichi. I don't like my pred ISO too, but it's like 10 posts, and after learning my role PM my POV requires me to be wary of people opportunistically joining my wagon. Sujimichi was the vote that struck me most, and i am wondering why it didn't strike you (@amrun) as well.

Why would Fighting be superior to Sparing the Friendly Neighbor?

[Farkran]

Hi suji! Besides scumreading you, i am happy to play with you again!

I'd like you to answer my 401 wrt your part. What reason did you have to scumread Farkran, rather than Asriel? Why is asking for a recap scummy in your eyes?

Pedit: i don't recall hectic claiming FN. I am fairly sure he claimed NOT being FN. Am i wrong?

[Farkran]

Besides, assuming we can spare the FN in day 2, what's to gain? The FN is a unique role in an open setup, he is already unlynchable. Factional night kill is still active after New Home is reached, if i read the setup correctly, so he will just be killed asap. Unless i am missing something, the 1-spare bonus is worthless.

[Replica]

I wanted to wait until I get home but the earlier this gets nipped the better.

Farkran-you really, REALLY need to do the math on sparing strategies before going on a posting spree about how it's mechanically bad. As far as I can tell, your opposition to it is that it seems mathematically and not coming from pragmatic concerns (How I'd classify Nacho/Amrun)

The win rate for playing it mountainous is upperbounded by 11:2's known win rate of 39%. The win rate for 3/4 spares are in the low 40s. I didn't calc 2 spares and 1 spare is awful. I back of the envelope did it on a napkin at lunch but I'll draw it up again if I have to.

[Sujimichi]

Hi suji! Besides scumreading you, i am happy to play with you again!

I'd like you to answer my 401 wrt your part. What reason did you have to scumread Farkran, rather than Asriel? Why is asking for a recap scummy in your eyes?

Pedit: i don't recall hectic claiming FN. I am fairly sure he claimed NOT being FN. Am i wrong?

Hello. Good to play with you again as well. What specifically from your 401 would you like answered by me? I disliked your outsourcing your reads to others prior to stating your own opinion becuase

1. The game is not that long, and it should not take you long to catch up
   
2. It allows you to modify your opinions to fit others and the game state as a whole instead of accurately projecting your true opinion

I did not say that Hectic was the Friendly Neighbor (he in fact claimed that he was not). I was asking of your opinion regardless of who is the Friendly Neighbor as you are adamantly against Sparing. I have written in depth on my thoughts on waiting for the Friendly Neighbor to wait until Day 2 to claim, so you are welcome to read through my ISO. I will reassess with your stated consideration. Thank you.

[SherlockHolmes]

I’ll be honest, doing this PR has been kind of exhausting and I’ve been avoiding this game somewhat because of it.

For the record, I’m not

that

interested in trying to percentage point maximise between sparing and fighting strategies as that just seems unproductive and focus there is focus not on finding and lynching scum. I also highly doubt that any advantage is more than marginal from choosing one specific end game over another, and which is marginally better is probably entirely negatable via day play plus scum knowing which strategy we’re thinking of going for allows them to play around it.

I think it’s much better to choose based on an organic unfolding of events, I.e. sparing if there is a very consensus townread, fighting if there is a very consensus scumread. However, I think on D1 it’s healthier to fight because, as mentioned previously, it allows to see where people were regarding a flipped alignment that was chosen with at least some town involved. This will be more informative and useful going forwards and solving the game than second guessing on if we spared scum and/or trying to make reads purely on a scum nk, which always has the potential to be wifom

[SherlockHolmes]

Incidentally, I’m not really townreading suji or alim but I think I may scumread their playstyles and this makes it harder for me to judge in both cases. I think this is somewhat moreso the case with suji.

I’m aware that this looks very political given my positioning; I don’t know if it helps you to know that I know it looks political, but there’s that.

[SherlockHolmes]

No I agree! I want to hurt Sujimichi. But deadline was approaching (like fast) and I didn’t have anything new to present on Sujimichi to convince anyone. I didn’t want to cause us to no action. Sparing Hectic isn’t the worst thing that could happen. The worst thing that could happen would be nothing which we were headed to rapidly (and still kinda are).

I agree with you on this and I’ll work with you on suji despite my reservations if it lets us avoid sparing

HURT: suji

HEAL: unvote

[SherlockHolmes]

Also, NB: I reserve the right to return to my gimmick once the gamestate is healthier and not shit

I think pine’s inactivity has been sitewide and is probably NAI for him

Amrun is being consciously town and I’m willing to roll with that as is for now because I like where she’s looking