In post 721, Replica wrote: In post 718, Amrun wrote:
I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.
I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.
I don't think the spare route is worthwhile unless the town has a lot of strong early townreads. This is the only reason I listed or even mentioned a list of several people. I think this is a really important part of my gamestance to underline here: I would normally prefer lynching people for the rest of the game if we didn't already have so many good townreads available before even learning who the IC is.
I don't think scum sherlock volunteers or even seeks out the new info we have on Sujimishi. Why, even if he as scum had some other reason to read Suji's PT and sees the post, I don't think he as scum assesses it as potentially clearing the slot in this game. It's just not a priority scum has, and I think it takes a lot of deliberate attention and task-directed effort to produce the analysis of the PT post that he did. I'm about as confident in my SH read as I am in my Suji read for these public, easy to explain reasons.
The Hectic read isn't as confident. It's just a normal strong town read, which I explained earlier. Given my other reads, I'd prefer to spare someone else. By the time sparing those targets is already passed as an option, we'll either be even more sure he's town or will have to re-evaluate. But my strong townread is not just based on posts already here, but on a strong expectation that we'll get more evidence of his town mindset as the game goes on. I've said earlier - I think I'm a lot better at PoE than finding scum. My Hectic read fits into this strategy.
And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)
I think that the situation where my assessment/strategy gets enough consensus for a Suji spare today is one where at least 3 people in my list end up spared even if I flake out overnight. A ball gets rolling w/ a Sujimichi spare and two clear options for a D2 spare (I imagine one will be killed) - all with the town IC still unknown! - that is hard for me to imagine scum overcoming. They just get too little wiggle room. No opportunities to PR hunt (the absence of lynch wagons that might elicit a PR claim even further this). Just an unstoppable plan with some but a quite low chance of failure.
If you really do agree at least with the
intuition
that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.
You can't step in the same river twice.
