White Flag - TM2020

[Auro]

I mean, I'd be the push in LyLo, not FF/BB

[CheekyTeeky]

The day 1 wagons pretty much clear BB/FF from most teams. So I'd find it hard to peg either of them. If Dong flips town that takes FF/Dong out and pretty much conf towns him as the only team left is with gobbles so the votes should go there or in Auro. As Dann/Auro Dann/gobbles FF/gobbles FF/Auro BB/gobbles are the only combinations of feasible teams.

If we lynched town!Dann then BB/gobbles FF/gobbles Dong/FF are the only feasible teams. Illustrating Dann as the optimal lynch today.

[Auro]

Town!Dann eliminates {FF/Auro} for you?

[Auro]

I've corrected the calculations for you, assuming Dann's in the scumpool:

You can clear Dong/BB as well. And clear Dann/Dong as well. The unique pairings left are:

Gobbles|{Dong,Dann,FF,BB}
Dong|{FF, Auro}
Dann|{Auro}

4 potential partners for Gobbles, 3 for Dong, 2 for FF/Me/Dann.
Shows Gobbles as the superior lynch.

[Auro]

Add FF|Auro to that and it'll bring us up to 3 unique each, still, Gobbles is superior

[Auro]

Town!Auro flip should bring it to

Gobbles|{Dong, Dann, FF, BB}
Dong|{FF}

So my flip should also mean Gobbles is optimal lynch purely from a teams perspective.

[CheekyTeeky]

Town!Dann eliminates {FF/Auro} for you?

Yeah I don't think you would be scum with both NSG and FF and I'd trust Danns read of you more knowing he's town.

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 7

(

Kittymo

,

Dunnstral

, gobbledygook, BBMolla, Dannflor,

Cephrir

, Dongempire)

Formerfish - 2

(

northsidegal

,

Espeonage

)

BBMolla - 2

(CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Hopkirk

)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

Activity Check - Lynch at #1460

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

Espeonage

- 6

(Dannflor,

Dunnstral

, Formerfish, BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Auro)

goobledygook - 2

(

Cephrir

,

Hopkirk

)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

CheekyTeeky - 1

(Dongempire)

Hopkirk

- 1

(

Espeonage

)

Not Voting - 0

Activity Check - Lynch at #2236

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

Vote Count

Hopkirk

- 5

(Dannflor,

Cephrir

, BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)

goobledygook - 2

(Auro,

Hopkirk

)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

Auro - 1

(Dongempire)

Not Voting - 0

()

Activity Check - Lynch as of post #2721

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-10 23:00:00)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch

Auro what do you find scummiest? People consistently on the lynch wagon or people consistently off? I think gobbles would cut more teams than a Dong lynch at this point.

[CheekyTeeky]

All NKs have been on wagon if that means anything.

[CheekyTeeky]

If NKs on wagon usually that indicates scum on wagon. Dann/FF were on both wagons. FF hasn't really flinched on Dann today while Dann has been at L-1 so I guess that's a dead end.

[CheekyTeeky]

Dann/BB? Makes more sense with today's day play, especially with BBs random AtE when I pointed out the possibility of that team.

[Auro]

I think wagon analysis that way will be inconclusive, in isolation scum can choose to be anywhere. I think the NKs were due to the respective slots being obvtown, mostly.

Dann/BB makes sense with that + Dann's inability to explain a townread beyond gut + Dann's rushed feel to the Dong wagon, BUT, it makes little sense for Molla to defend Gobbles that much and start pushing me instead.

[Auro]

Yeah I don't think you would be scum with both NSG and FF and I'd trust Danns read of you more knowing he's town.

Well, to be fair a Dong flip should also eliminate FF/Auro then because (1) would still hold and Dann's town if FF/Auro is the solve

[CheekyTeeky]

Well if BB is scum then his motive in defending gobbles/pushing you while tunneling Dong is obviously to keep the Auro VS gobbles thing going for lylo.

Yeah it gives you points but the Dann flip seals it for me.

[CheekyTeeky]

So if Dong flips town probably lynch BB rather than gobbles? Idk just don't lynch Dong at this point that lylo is yikes.

[Auro]

He risks it becoming Auro vs Molla instead though, which it did become.
Like safer/easier strat is to just let me power through and maybe lightly defend Gob, prolly start calling me scum if Gob flips town (like how he alleges I'm scum if Dong flips town), Gob flipping would make an attack on me easier in LyLo.

Remember that LyLo will probably be a 1v1. You should definitely not cast the first vote if alive. I doubt BB|Gobbles would be the 1v1 votes anyway, with both of them townreading the other independent of flips in {Auro,Dann,Dong}.

[CheekyTeeky]

It hasn't become BB/Auro. It's still Dann/Dong. BB will look bad after the Dong flip but a scum!BB looks pretty great today with everyone discounting him/dead people townreading him. If Dann is his buddy they probably push you from one side and defend you from the other so they can position to lynch either you or gobbles (FF probably votes you here as does gobbles).

[CheekyTeeky]

Like tbf gobbles/dann are the best lunches today to cut teams. I'm just worried if we lynch town!gobbles today you guys won't lynch Dann at lylo.

[Auro]

I mean with me saying I think he's a good lynch if I flip, and that between Dong/Molla Molla should be lynched, etc.
I think Gobbles has

far

higher scum equity than Dann.
I think Molla would still be a superior lynch in LyLo to Dann even if he were scum? You only need to lynch one scum for the win.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah but there's the issue of clearing you/dann and since BB only works with Dann while Dann works with a few means Dann is the better hit in a Dann/BB team scenario at lylo with you alive.

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm not lynching anyone but Dann today. I'm just trying to help you guys out for a hypothetical lylo. If Dann is not there Auro should not be lynched.

[Auro]

... I lost track.
Okay, so you think that a Gobbles town flip would mean more resulting Dann teams than BB teams (who can only plausibly be paired with Dann), Dann's the superior lynch; so although Gobbles has more possible partners today you'd rather have Dann's flip now. Right?

[Auro]

While that works if Dann has ~ scum equity as the rest of the pool, I disagree because the reasons for Gobb scum are pretty plain to see, and there are a lot of reasons for Dann!town individually.
Weighing this with individual scum equity, Gobs is a much superior lynch anyway.

[CheekyTeeky]

Auro/Dann, BB/Dann, gobbles/Dann, gobbles/BB, gobbles/FF, Dong/gobbles, Dong/FF. Are all the feasible teams. If Dann is town just hit gobbles tomorrow. It's not worth hitting BB when he only has one team and it's with gobbles. I'll be super sad if it's Dong/FF but oh well I'm finally taking a stance on shit.

[Auro]

Wait I'm curious as to why you clear Auro/Dong? I am, well, defending him now right?

[CheekyTeeky]

Dong didn't mind you at L-1 and I don't think your scumbuddy cases you the day before lylo.