The One That I Cannot Kill [it's FINALLY done]

[RadiantCowbells]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

[Who]

You tried to take control of things the way you did in vengeful, then after I called you out on it you backed off.

[RadiantCowbells]

do you think me trying to take control of things is alignment indicative

[northsidegal]

my philosophy as of about a year ago and how it has differed from past philosophies

is i don't use untested reasons to scumread people

i scumread people off of stuff that i have empirically seen be scumtells. i don't decide that certain behaviours are scummy based on out of game principles. it's cost me a few early scumreads but it has made my overall reads far more reliable
i don't actually know exactly what scum in this setup looks like so any read there is going to be untested whereas i have a fairly large body of work that i can use to read you and who off of standard play that has been tested

oh, sure. i can broadly agree with that, in principle. i guess i'm not really following it this game, but i personally would apply it more to "theoretical" scumtells, i guess?

maybe i'm not putting this very descriptively, or maybe i'm just wrong and trying to explain it away. i guess i would say that this game i'm using the mechanic as sort of a line of logical reasoning (arrogant as that sounds) to imagine what scum would / wouldn't be doing, whereas i might apply your principle here if i was looking at some behavior for which i couldn't directly draw a line of reasoning to being scum-indicative, but even still suspected to be scummy all the same.

although, having said that, it does sound a lot like rationalization. even theoretical scumtells have a basis for being scum-indicative.

hm.

[northsidegal]

The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.

my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.

[Who]

You used it to great effect as scum. I haven't played with townyou. Or I may have like 4 years ago or something, but I don't remember it. Given how effectively you were able to use it as scum, and that I have no evidence in favor or against its effectiveness at helping you when you were town, this is weak evidence that it is alignment indicative.

[RadiantCowbells]

ok

what if i tell you it's really not alignment indicative and that's a well known fact, what now

[northsidegal]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one liners

plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin

[Who]

The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.

my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.

Whatever you want to call it. You've positioned yourself such that refusing to hammer me would be strange.

[northsidegal]

ok

what if i tell you it's really not alignment indicative and that's a well known fact, what now

what isn't alignment indicative?

[RadiantCowbells]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one liners

plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin

this doesn't sound like a very effective strategy versus me.

[northsidegal]

The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.

my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.

Whatever you want to call it. You've positioned yourself such that refusing to hammer me would be strange.

i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.

[Who]

Then I would totally believe that you are 100% honest in this mafia game. Next you'll tell me that you're not scum and well time to lynch NSG you said it on the internet so it must be true.

[RadiantCowbells]

:v

what's your read on me, then?

[RadiantCowbells]

:v

what's your read on me, then?

[northsidegal]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one liners

plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin

this doesn't sound like a very effective strategy versus me.

no, but this is indeed a three person game and not an extended 13 player game in which i must endure 11 other players being enlightened as to just how much scums NSG is

a three person game in which it's possible that my only win condition would be to lynch you, and as such fooling you would be of no concern. with that in mind, wouldn't you agree that it makes sense that, if i am scum this game, the person i must lynch is probably not you?

[RadiantCowbells]

i just don't think that's an effective line of reasoning to sort people off of.

[Who]

i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.

Sure you could stall for a while without arousing suspicion, but if you were scum and I was your lynchpin then it would reach the point of suspicion quicker than if you refused to hammer RC.

[northsidegal]

i just don't think that's an effective line of reasoning to sort people off of.

The line of reasoning beginning from considering who a player must kill and must convince if they were scum, to be clear?

[RadiantCowbells]

yes. if you go after the wrong person you still only have a 50% chance of it coming into question and if you go hard against someone early it's fairly easy to say "well I wouldn't have gone after the [one I couldn't kill] like this if I were scum"

[RadiantCowbells]

like it's going to work some of the time. it's not null effectiveness. but is it good enough? I don't think that it is.

[northsidegal]

i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.

Sure you could stall for a while without arousing suspicion, but if you were scum and I was your lynchpin then it would reach the point of suspicion quicker than if you refused to hammer RC.

I think if I were scum and RC voted you then I could easily make a case for him being scum who's concerned about the trajectory of my thoughts and wants to add pressure or some such (ha ha, not really, but in theoretical nsg-is-good-at-scum land i mean)

Although I think i've already presented a fairly strong case as for the argument that, if I am scum, RC is not the one that I need to kill. I'm also not sure how much this entire post I'm making is actually helpful moreso than just a rebuttal to an argument, but shrug

[RadiantCowbells]

like it's good enough for a lot of people. i don't think it's good enough for me.

[Who]

:v

what's your read on me, then?

Nullscum. In that I still think it's more likely to be you than NSG, but I am not at all confident in anything.

[northsidegal]

yes. if you go after the wrong person you still only have a 50% chance of it coming into question and if you go hard against someone early it's fairly easy to say "well I wouldn't have gone after the [one I couldn't kill] like this if I were scum"

like it's going to work some of the time. it's not null effectiveness. but is it good enough? I don't think that it is.

I think it's a tool like any other. NKA is probably going to end up useless if you always go "well X died and he scumread Y, so Y is probably scum", or at the very least its effectiveness will be diminished if you were to only ever go for the most level 0 analysis every time. I don't think that has to be the case, I think it's a lot easier to go deeper into it than that.

That is, I think you could easily look at a player's progression throughout the day and think about if it looks genuine or not, if it really could come from someone who knew the whole time who they had to lynch or if it came from someone who really was uninformed.