The One That I Cannot Kill [it's FINALLY done]

[northsidegal]

in

[northsidegal]

hey its me a towny town town town

[northsidegal]

this should be easy then

[northsidegal]

nope, no dancing.

while we're on the subject of not really talking about anything meaningful, i was thinking of modding a game after this, and maybe after oka's game finished. do you think people would have time for a max ~30 minute game?

[northsidegal]

how do i convince you that i'm town

convince me that who is scum?

do you already think that i'm town?

[northsidegal]

well i already think who might be scum, so

[northsidegal]

i was thinking of doing treestump express

[northsidegal]

oh god not that

you don't think so? i think it's somewhat suited for a marathon in that people have the freedom to leave if they get treestumped, so they don't actually have to stick around for the whole thing

the chaos of spectators shouting at you in lylo also seems interesting, from a moderator point of view i guess

[northsidegal]

rc im not sure how you haven't realized that i only mod for sadistic pleasure in watching people go through the horrible rat traps that i've constructed for them, you've played in fire on the mountain and baton pass

*ba dum tiss*


(this is a joke)

[northsidegal]

oh yeah i forgot you were the scum who won and not one of the townies

[northsidegal]

so let's say that who is scum

his lynchpin is probably me, right? unless he's trying some long strategy

and probably the same is true for you? perhaps that's too hasty of a conclusion though

[northsidegal]

if that's a joke then i thought it was very funny, if it's not then i'm slightly confused

[northsidegal]

which now that i read it sounds a little insulting but that's not how i meant it

[northsidegal]

also NSG why do you keep talking about not this game rather than this game

-shrug-

there isn't a lot to say at the start of this game and so talking about random things on my mind is a good way to make conversation that will potentially lead to more relevant things being said, i imagine. especially in a three person game, i'm not sure how else i'd start a game, or at least a marathon one.

[northsidegal]

i feel like who is in a really shitty situation if he rolled scum here

probably.

knowing that i'm town i actually feel right now like the optimal move for me is to just sit on my hands and do nothing to see what both of you do because scum presumably has to do

something

, but i don't imagine that that's a very fun strategy or very healthy for this game being interesting at all.

[northsidegal]

i'm tempted to yolo-vote like if this were lynchpin 4p but i'm not sure that's actually a good idea

[northsidegal]

let's assume you're scum.

the trajectory of our conversation this game clearly points towards you voting who. you haven't yet stated an outright townread on me, but neither a scumread. i don't think there's a reliable conclusion to be drawn as to if you need who to vote me or if you need me to vote who.

i imagine that if you needed me to vote who, you would deliberately avoid trying to force me into it. probably you would keep making conversation, make subtle insinuations against who, and then when i decided i was ready, we would vote. i think that could plausibly be seen as what's happened so far -- not to imply that that

is

what has happened so far, but that possibility for you as scum looks like what's happening now, even if you're town.

if you needed who to vote me, then that would require some kind of conversation to happen that just hasn't happened yet. i don't know what our deadline is or if we even have a deadline, but if we do then it certainly must be fast approaching for that conversation to happen, or for your confident declaration that i'm scum because i haven't shown myself to be town or some such thing.

who goes next, it makes me anxious typing psots this big in a marathon.

[northsidegal]

i feel like who is in a really shitty situation if he rolled scum here

probably.

knowing that i'm town i actually feel right now like the optimal move for me is to just sit on my hands and do nothing to see what both of you do because scum presumably has to do

something

, but i don't imagine that that's a very fun strategy or very healthy for this game being interesting at all.

Sitting on your hands and letting townies fight also seems like a good strategy if you rolled scum.

do you think i'm scum?

[northsidegal]

i don't think that being complacent and assuming that i'm just going to figure out you're locktown without you showing it to me is a mistake on your part.
right now i'm definitely leaning scum who over scum you but i don't know that and that's something that i'd want to know before i did anything

i would look very ridiculous if i gave scum you a win here after all

i'm going to assume your first line was meant to say that it

would

be a mistake --

that's why i decided against it? or rather, i brought it up specifically

because

i had considered it as a good strategy but decided against it. if i was going to do it i probably would have just done it and not said anything.

[northsidegal]

from my point of view reading people off of the actual game mechanic unless i'm getting lynched and deciding what order for people to vote me is a mistake because i think i can generate reads more reliably off of standard play

this sentence is really weird, i don't think i can even parse its meaning at all

in a standard speed game and if another player posted it i would probably be inclined to call it scummy, but that is not the game we are currently playing

[northsidegal]

I don't know whether or not you're scum. I think it's more likely to be RC, but my scumread on him is weakening and I don't have a read on you.

who do you think rc's lynchpin is? that is, The One That [He] Cannot Kill?

[northsidegal]

do you think i ought to be more forthright than i have been

that's not really what i was trying to get at, although i can see how what i said might be considered equivalent to that

[northsidegal]

but otherwise i am making zero effort to sort either yourself or who off of "well this person looks like they are playing around the game mechanics by doing X"

i'm not sure why, seems like a fine way to approach this game to me

[northsidegal]

i understand what you're saying

i'm asking how i'm supposed to play around it

that is, if you were town, what could you have done that would look

different

than that?

again, i think that might be getting at the wrong question. i'm not really using that possibility to say that you're scum. if anything, what i'm saying is that, if you're scum, i'm your lynchpin.

[northsidegal]

because, like i said, i think that i am more reliably able to solve the game through other metrics than that one.

-shrug-

whatever works for you, i'm not really trying to criticize or say that you should be playing a certain way. i think it's pretty much NAI at the moment, unless you really wanted to stretch some theory

[northsidegal]

my philosophy as of about a year ago and how it has differed from past philosophies

is i don't use untested reasons to scumread people

i scumread people off of stuff that i have empirically seen be scumtells. i don't decide that certain behaviours are scummy based on out of game principles. it's cost me a few early scumreads but it has made my overall reads far more reliable
i don't actually know exactly what scum in this setup looks like so any read there is going to be untested whereas i have a fairly large body of work that i can use to read you and who off of standard play that has been tested

oh, sure. i can broadly agree with that, in principle. i guess i'm not really following it this game, but i personally would apply it more to "theoretical" scumtells, i guess?

maybe i'm not putting this very descriptively, or maybe i'm just wrong and trying to explain it away. i guess i would say that this game i'm using the mechanic as sort of a line of logical reasoning (arrogant as that sounds) to imagine what scum would / wouldn't be doing, whereas i might apply your principle here if i was looking at some behavior for which i couldn't directly draw a line of reasoning to being scum-indicative, but even still suspected to be scummy all the same.

although, having said that, it does sound a lot like rationalization. even theoretical scumtells have a basis for being scum-indicative.

hm.

[northsidegal]

The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.

my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.

[northsidegal]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one liners

plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin

[northsidegal]

ok

what if i tell you it's really not alignment indicative and that's a well known fact, what now

what isn't alignment indicative?

[northsidegal]

The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.

my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.

Whatever you want to call it. You've positioned yourself such that refusing to hammer me would be strange.

i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.

[northsidegal]

but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum

i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one liners

plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin

this doesn't sound like a very effective strategy versus me.

no, but this is indeed a three person game and not an extended 13 player game in which i must endure 11 other players being enlightened as to just how much scums NSG is

a three person game in which it's possible that my only win condition would be to lynch you, and as such fooling you would be of no concern. with that in mind, wouldn't you agree that it makes sense that, if i am scum this game, the person i must lynch is probably not you?

[northsidegal]

i just don't think that's an effective line of reasoning to sort people off of.

The line of reasoning beginning from considering who a player must kill and must convince if they were scum, to be clear?

[northsidegal]

i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.

Sure you could stall for a while without arousing suspicion, but if you were scum and I was your lynchpin then it would reach the point of suspicion quicker than if you refused to hammer RC.

I think if I were scum and RC voted you then I could easily make a case for him being scum who's concerned about the trajectory of my thoughts and wants to add pressure or some such (ha ha, not really, but in theoretical nsg-is-good-at-scum land i mean)

Although I think i've already presented a fairly strong case as for the argument that, if I am scum, RC is not the one that I need to kill. I'm also not sure how much this entire post I'm making is actually helpful moreso than just a rebuttal to an argument, but shrug

[northsidegal]

yes. if you go after the wrong person you still only have a 50% chance of it coming into question and if you go hard against someone early it's fairly easy to say "well I wouldn't have gone after the [one I couldn't kill] like this if I were scum"

like it's going to work some of the time. it's not null effectiveness. but is it good enough? I don't think that it is.

I think it's a tool like any other. NKA is probably going to end up useless if you always go "well X died and he scumread Y, so Y is probably scum", or at the very least its effectiveness will be diminished if you were to only ever go for the most level 0 analysis every time. I don't think that has to be the case, I think it's a lot easier to go deeper into it than that.

That is, I think you could easily look at a player's progression throughout the day and think about if it looks genuine or not, if it really could come from someone who knew the whole time who they had to lynch or if it came from someone who really was uninformed.

[northsidegal]

RC, what do you think of the argument that if I'm scum, the one I couldn't vote is you?

[northsidegal]

Same question goes to Who.

[northsidegal]

Let's say that I was confirmed to be town.

Isn't there a mechanical way to ensure town's victory?

[northsidegal]

I'm confirmed town. You vote me, unvote. Who votes me, unvote. One of you is scum, and the other is the lynchpin. You crossvote, town wins. Or, more accurately, one of you crossvotes, the other refuses, we lynch them, town wins.

[northsidegal]

That's a hypothetical "I'm confirmed town" there, just to be clear.

[northsidegal]

If both of you are able to vote me then it indicates that I'm not anyone's lynchpin. That means the two people who aren't me are scum and scum's lynchpin, respectively. If scum votes their lynchpin they lose, so if both of you could vote me then crossvoting would result in an instant scum loss.

[northsidegal]

Alternatively, I could be the lynchpin (as I personally suspect), and scum would then refuse to go through with voting me in the first place.

[northsidegal]

Oh I forgot that quickhammering was a thing.

[northsidegal]

I'm not sure what was going through my head. I think I was thinking of like, physical voting, with three people in a room and a ballot box in the middle or something? wow, i'm out of it.

although i still think that i'm the lynchpin honestly so forcing someone to vote me is, i think, still an interesting plan

[northsidegal]

just forget about it

[northsidegal]

genius strategist speaking

[northsidegal]

I think that every person in this game has enough vigilance to snipe even the fastest vote/unvote

[northsidegal]

regardless, it is slightly bothering me that i seem to be the one taking initiative here when i was the one originally talking about waiting as a strategy (even if the thing i was taking initiative with was a bad idea)

[northsidegal]

I think that if we set ourselves a deadline it would aid scumhunting.

Here's our deadline:

(expired on 2020-02-15 00:24:59)

[northsidegal]

i'm thinking stuff through and typing a longer than average marathon post

[northsidegal]

it's more lines of reasoning based on lynchpin stuff though so

[northsidegal]

i think i made a mistake this game in talking about that stuff too early but it was probably necessary to get the game moving at the time and right now i consider it a very low probability possibility that it actually negatively affected me this game

[northsidegal]

Who, if you think RC is scum, do you think it's more likely that he has to lynch you, or me?

[northsidegal]

i really don't understand what you have been thinking about this game.

probably overthinking the setup, but can you blame me in a game with two hard to read players like you two

cfj i think makes setups that are probably above my pay grade when it comes to breaking, but i'm trying to be clever nonetheless

[northsidegal]

when i think there's so many easier ways to read people in this game

such as?

[northsidegal]

sure, i think on an objective level you've been townier this game. i think you being townier doesn't mean that you're necessarily town (and yes i would say that about anyone not just RC, it's more about Who then it is about you)

i guess i would say that what i'm doing is something like a precaution? i feel like i only stand to gain information from what i'm thinking

[northsidegal]

I think Who should vote me.

[northsidegal]

Who, if you don't vote me, I am going to vote you.

[northsidegal]

If I believe that RC is town, then I risk nothing by Who voting me. Even if I believe RC is scum, I believe RC's lynchpin would be me, and thus I risk nothing by Who voting me.

If Who is town who refuses to vote me then I will vote him, and this loses town the game. Thus, Who is being held hostage and forced to vote me if he is town. If Who is scum who refuses to vote me, I'm his lynchpin, I'll vote him, and town wins the game.

[northsidegal]

Let me know if you follow this line of reasoning.

The deduction that I can have (and should have) the most confidence in this game is that, if RC is scum, his lynchpin is me.

I should be making a decision based on my most confident deduction. Typically, this would take the form of "X is scum" (probably followed by a vote), but in this case it's what I've just said. With that in mind, I should make my decision based on the idea that, if RC is scum, his lynchpin is me.

I ask Who to vote me.

If who is scum and his lynchpin is me, he'll refuse. If it's RC, he'll accept, and I won't get quickhammered.
If who is town, he accepts, and, if I am correct, I don't get quickhammered, because scum RC's lynchpin would be me.

We are then in the world of either Who is scum and his lynchpin is RC, or RC is scum and his lynchpin is me. (or, Who refused outright, in which case his lynchpin is me, in which case I probably just vote him)

This isn't a solved game, but I would consider it closer to one, and I would consider it a better move than directly voting someone myself.

[northsidegal]

you realize he's allowed to vote you right, just not hammer

urgh sthis game is sooooo stupid im just gonna vote who im tired othis

[northsidegal]

i look like an idiot ajlkasjdrlkasdfajslkd f

[northsidegal]

no just forget about it okay im just gonna vote

[northsidegal]

why doesn't he vote you if his lynchpin is you i don't understand

i was under the impression that he couldn't vote me at all and so if i were his lynchpin he'd instantly lose

[northsidegal]

should i take a moment to not let my embarrassment and anger control my thinking?

[northsidegal]

We repeatedly told you this. Is this some kind of bullshit reaction test?

just leave me alone

gosh can you guys do anything this game except like talk to me or something, are you both scum

[northsidegal]

rc are you scum and im your lynchpin

[northsidegal]

i hate this game x_x

[northsidegal]

new plan: one of you votes me and i self hammer and we lose

[northsidegal]

do you think that i should be townreading you, or scumreading who?

[northsidegal]

its been an hour and a half

[northsidegal]

i am historically used to you correctly townreading me even when most of the town doesn't, even when I do something really egregiously anti-town.

i guess maybe I remember the whatever that game where kokichi was scums more than the newbie with scioness sajj's more but i think there's a chronological difference

could be wrong

i don't think my read record on you is all that great although the three most recent examples that come to mind have been alright (correctly and confidently read as scum one game, less confidently but still leaned-scum another game, correctly townread third game)

regardless, i don't think way that i read you really applies in a 3 person marathon game like this

[northsidegal]

in fact i would say that i have a psychological bias against calling you scum

like even when all the pieces of the puzzle are there and lined up i don't

want

to put them in place, it almost pains me. typically i can feel when that happens and i don't think that feel it here, though.

[northsidegal]

shrug

i think i see a far more coherent line of play as scum from you than from who if he were scum here. who is certainly scummier, but based on what i know about him i consider that normal for him even if he were town

so what am i meant to go on?

[northsidegal]

haha, that's an effective line.

[northsidegal]

the problem is when you run out of lines of reasoning to follow you start to think about "well who would i prefer losing to" which can only serve to throw you off

[northsidegal]

(not that i'm thinking that here, i bring it up specifically

because

i'm ignoring it)

[northsidegal]

if you thought that, why not try faking a scumread on me to see if he'd follow along despite his earlier stronger scumread on you?

[northsidegal]

lol nearly two hours

[northsidegal]

if you thought that, why not try faking a scumread on me to see if he'd follow along despite his earlier stronger scumread on you?

because you are going to go ballistic on me if I do that.

probably i would end up overthinking it a ton, but i'm pretty sure i wouldn't be mad.

[northsidegal]

anyways VOTE: who

[northsidegal]

UNVOTE: haha got em

[northsidegal]

oh now i'm actually cleared from failure to hammer both sides.

muffins did it before

but meh


VOTE: who

[northsidegal]

i'm waiting for the quickhammer

[northsidegal]

you're saying you actually still believe that i'm scum?

no, you are confirmed town from my perspective. i'm waiting for you to kill who

[northsidegal]

nope still town

[northsidegal]

yeah doesn't seem fun

then again i never really think scum is fun so

good game guys!