TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

davesaz · Post Post #6750 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:44 pm

How do you come to that conclusion?

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #6751 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:45 pm

We doctored him

davesaz · Post Post #6752 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:51 pm

That definition of conf is a lot looser than the one I use.
In a high stakes game like this one, deliberate no-kill to get "conf" is a tactic that should remain among the possible.
I'd be willing to call it likely town.

EspressoPatronum · Post Post #6753 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:54 pm

In the interest of maintaining complete transparency, it conf!towns Gamma in all but a few niche scenarios. I outlined a few of those scenarios in 6726.

I also wouldn't go so far as to say FL and I are masons. That whole Maria slip thing yesterday looks a lot worse considering Maria flipped scum.

P-edit - that is correct, dave. So... did you commute last night?

davesaz · Post Post #6754 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:55 pm

In post 6743, Flavor Leaf wrote:And for DEB to be scum, you have to believe essentially scum sacrificed Maria to save DEB. I know that’s not the full story, but I find it hard to believe scum save DEB and let Nomnom have a chance at shooting them.

You could tell near the end that scum was trying not to lynch Nomnom because of fear based on wagonomics.

I don't follow this either.
It's reasonable to assume that scum were worried about lynching nomnom, but that doesn't translate to anything else. It certainly doesn't translate to sacrificing Maria.

davesaz · Post Post #6755 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:56 pm

I could have anywhere between 1 and 3 actions left, and I'm absolutely not going to reveal anything.

davesaz · Post Post #6756 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:00 pm

^ until I know it helps town. At this point it doesn't.

EspressoPatronum · Post Post #6757 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:14 pm

Maria + Dave as scum would also lend itself to the theory of 1 scum in the RB and 1 scum in the inventor hoods. I originally thought it was DV, but dave makes sense, too.

EspressoPatronum · Post Post #6758 (ISO) » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:18 pm

In post 6756, davesaz wrote:^ until I know it helps town. At this point it doesn't.

In addition to strengthening a TR on Gamma by revealing a non-commute last night, there's plenty of combo potential with your JOAT powers and the lightning rod.

We still don't know if your commute is strictly a self-commute. If it isn't +/ if it can be redirected, then the lightning rod LMS can make another night deathless.

Your watcher ability can combo with the lightning rod to net one scum. We can ask all town to withold their actions... if scum do anything, it'll be rerouted onto the lightning rod.

Gammagooey · Post Post #6759 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:37 am

davesaz wrote:I could have anywhere between 1 and 3 actions left, and I'm absolutely not going to reveal anything.

I don't particularly care about the failed/missed action on night 3 after thinking about it so if you want to keep that a secret you're welcome to imo

I also think it's pretty reasonable for scum to no-kill last night assuming you're town, but I would personally your action last night to be outed so we have a better idea of your thought process and what you thought scum were likely to do last night so that people can get a better read on your alignment. If you want to fight about it being the right play then fight about it and I can maybe be convinced but considering that you contributed basically nothing in terms of reads yesterday I feel like it's fair.

However, you ABSOLUTELY need to give reads and actually try to get scum lynched today. Dayplay is more important than nightplay in general, today as the first day with a flipped scum especially, and if you try to be cheeky with 'oh well not playing the game will optimize my night action' again I will 100% try to get you lynched for it.

Almost50 · Post Post #6760 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:26 am

In post 6736, kuribo wrote:
In post 6732, Almost50 wrote:Impressive! *Slow clapping*

I'll wait for people to out their votes/actions last night though. We obviously didn't vote to silence anyone.

Wouldn't have mattered if you had, I again voted to block your ability (Ank's to be specific) and I told panth so. He agreed that he would be voting Ank as well.

I told y'all two days ago neither of you would be able to use that ability again and I meant it.

Meh, it doesn't matter either way, because even if you didn't,, where else would you have aimed? Your ability only works on HOODS. Correct? You can't -say- RB FB or dave now. Am I correct?

Almost50 · Post Post #6761 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:31 am

In post 6738, davesaz wrote:
In post 6727, EspressoPatronum wrote:@dave you need to reveal your JOAT results today
Not gonna happen. When I have info to give town, that will be the time.

VOTE: dave

Voting one of my of my top TRs feels weird even to me, but you're not playing the game on your own. We need the info to make logical deductions and you're not helping.

Almost50 · Post Post #6762 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:32 am

Ank "may" have had a point in Maria RBing your invention to explain why it never was given out.

Almost50 · Post Post #6763 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:36 am

In post 6743, Flavor Leaf wrote:And for DEB to be scum, you have to believe essentially scum sacrificed Maria to save DEB. I know that’s not the full story, but I find it hard to believe scum save DEB and let Nomnom have a chance at shooting them.

nom (TMVP so far btw) had her shot land on Maria out of nowhere. Scum's worst case scenario was for her to venge DEB still (which would have been better than straight up lynching DEB). If you and AnK are both Town those were her 2nd most likely shots.

Almost50 · Post Post #6764 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:42 am

In post 6744, Flavor Leaf wrote:I think scum have to mislynch one of DEB/Gamma or this game’s done for them. EP and I are pretty much masons at this point, DEB is spewed town because of Maria scum, Gamma just got doc’d.

I also find it pretty amusing Scum didn't shoot in FL/EP! If both were Town then one is already dead last night and the other is dead the next night. regardless of whether they used the Lightning Rod. Either way they get rid of the Doctors and have an open filed to play in.

However, with one Scum in FL/EP Scum have only one target to shoot there, and then the Scum "Doctor" not using the Lightning Rod would have been a Scum claim.

Don't forget the Commuters are dissolved, so the Doctors are totally unprotected. Now what Scum passes on that and aims for gooey (where there is a chance he was protected) or dave (where there is a chance he commuted)??

Almost50 · Post Post #6765 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:44 am

In post 6747, davesaz wrote:Revealing my info is helpful only to scum. This is not open for debate.

So is taking the info to the grave with you, DAMN IT!

Almost50 · Post Post #6766 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:46 am

In post 6752, davesaz wrote:That definition of conf is a lot looser than the one I use.
In a high stakes game like this one, deliberate no-kill to get "conf" is a tactic that should remain among the possible.
I'd be willing to call it likely town.

The No Kill wasn't meant to conf!Town anyone. At least that was not the primary motive. The main reason would be to keep the numbers at EVENS.

Almost50 · Post Post #6767 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:51 am

In post 6753, EspressoPatronum wrote:In the interest of maintaining complete transparency, it conf!towns Gamma in all but a few niche scenarios. I outlined a few of those scenarios in 6726.

Btw, #3 makes non sense to me at all. Why would Scum FL lie about whom he targeted and still no kill? What does he gain from the two combined?

Almost50 · Post Post #6768 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:54 am

In post 6757, EspressoPatronum wrote:Maria + Dave as scum would also lend itself to the theory of 1 scum in the RB and 1 scum in the inventor hoods. I originally thought it was DV, but dave makes sense, too.

Maria fought the DEB lynch tooth and nail, so that is still my preferred lynch for today. JFTR

EspressoPatronum · Post Post #6769 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:57 am

In post 6767, Almost50 wrote:
In post 6753, EspressoPatronum wrote:In the interest of maintaining complete transparency, it conf!towns Gamma in all but a few niche scenarios. I outlined a few of those scenarios in 6726.
Btw, #3 makes non sense to me at all. Why would Scum FL lie about whom he targeted and still no kill? What does he gain from the two combined?

That's not quite what I meant by scenario #3. Here's what it would entail:

1. Scum!FL heals Dave
2. I heal Gamma
(Note - the heal target is randomized within Dave + Gamma in this case)
3. Scum tries to kill Gamma
4. Gamma doesn't die
5. FL realizes I must have saved Gamma, and thus lies about targeting Dave to escape the trap

Given that I can see where the confusion came from in our hood regarding targeting, I think this scenario is unlikely.

Almost50 · Post Post #6770 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:01 am

OK, but my question still stands (my "other" question): WHAT SCUM shoots in gooey/dave and passes on a 100% guaranteed to succeed kill on you/FL which will ALSO get them rid of the Doctor ability for good?

Almost50 · Post Post #6771 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:02 am

I mean, if I was Scum I would have 100% shot between FL/EP last night. Why did scum shoot elsewhere (or why did they holster)?

Almost50 · Post Post #6772 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:03 am

To me, shooting between EP/FL would have outweighed keeping the game at evens by far too.

davesaz · Post Post #6773 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:35 am

I give no priority to evens odds, wtf are you going on about?
6771 is the logic that guided my decision last night.
If the info would help town now then I’d give it now. If I say it won’t, it won’t!

EspressoPatronum · Post Post #6774 (ISO) » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:40 am

In post 6770, Almost50 wrote:OK, but my question still stands (my "other" question): WHAT SCUM shoots in gooey/dave and passes on a 100% guaranteed to succeed kill on you/FL which will ALSO get them rid of the Doctor ability for good?

In post 6771, Almost50 wrote:I mean, if I was Scum I would have 100% shot between FL/EP last night. Why did scum shoot elsewhere (or why did they holster)?

In post 6772, Almost50 wrote:To me, shooting between EP/FL would have outweighed keeping the game at evens by far too.

I completely agree - FL and I are the optimal targets. Shooting outside of us is just delaying the inevitable.

One explanation could be that scum thinks we'll lynch within EP/FL.

Another explanation is that FL is scum and can't afford to kill me.