Open 771: Pollock's Flag [endgame!]

[clidd]

I'll do some work tonight with TSH' posts that could be good to analyze. I don't think they expected to get lynched since they were the gray flag and not the black, so a push from them after their wagon starting to get some traction could be telling. TSE is super literal, I think we can win by reading him.

Ok, waiting².

[clidd]

I will focus on other events for now. When the analyzes are ready, we can discuss and, consequently, enter into a consensus. This will be

plan A

. If it doesn't work, we have

plan B

, where we will enter the sphere of lynch policy.

[clidd]

Anyone who wants to collaborate is at ease too.

[AaronFrost]

Some notes/wagon analysis upon doing a reread

- TSH wagon started with Hectic's vote in 203 then CSF joined after so Hectic most likely not scum, and CSF probably not scum.
- Amrun's vote/TSE's subsequent reaction indicate that they are not scum vs scum.
- I hopped on the wagon so I'm obviously town (and by that I mean feel free to analyze my vote on the wagon however you will)
- Uncrowned tried to start a wagon on Creature, and BS hopped on. 320 was a little weird as well.
- CSF also defended the wagon after voting there previously, a little sketch if you ask me. Their progression on them in later posts was good though.
- PB also tried to deflect onto rb and clidd after TSH had four votes on them, mostly ignored the TSH wagon.
- rb is definitely town based on interactions with TSH and to a lesser extent PB. Especially true if PB is also scum. Would like to see more from their replacement, but probably won't be swayed from this.
- Uncrowned not joining the wagon and going for Creature instead looks bad. Definitely vanity voting there. He also voted rooroo at a later point.

Definitely still stand by my 606.

Not related to the wagon but clidd's posting was pretty bad on Day 1, however has been much better today. Also don't think they're likely to be partners with TSH anyways.

{Hectic, Amrun, clidd, rb!slot and CSF} are all likely town based on this flip. If scum is on the wagon, they're probably on the end which would be {Skygazer, Uncrowned, PB}

I have no clue what to make of {rooroo, BS}

[woodchuck321]

VOTE: Blatant Scum

Zero content all day, literally never commented on TSH even one single time, and was off wagon. Really think this slot is much higher than rand scum.

if he's scum, what are scum doing?

sleeping, apparently

[woodchuck321]

Some notes/wagon analysis upon doing a reread

- TSH wagon started with Hectic's vote in 203 then CSF joined after so Hectic most likely not scum, and CSF probably not scum.
- Amrun's vote/TSE's subsequent reaction indicate that they are not scum vs scum.
- I hopped on the wagon so I'm obviously town (and by that I mean feel free to analyze my vote on the wagon however you will)
- Uncrowned tried to start a wagon on Creature, and BS hopped on. 320 was a little weird as well.
- CSF also defended the wagon after voting there previously, a little sketch if you ask me. Their progression on them in later posts was good though.
- PB also tried to deflect onto rb and clidd after TSH had four votes on them, mostly ignored the TSH wagon.
- rb is definitely town based on interactions with TSH and to a lesser extent PB. Especially true if PB is also scum. Would like to see more from their replacement, but probably won't be swayed from this.
- Uncrowned not joining the wagon and going for Creature instead looks bad. Definitely vanity voting there. He also voted rooroo at a later point.

Definitely still stand by my 606.

Not related to the wagon but clidd's posting was pretty bad on Day 1, however has been much better today. Also don't think they're likely to be partners with TSH anyways.

{Hectic, Amrun, clidd, rb!slot and CSF} are all likely town based on this flip. If scum is on the wagon, they're probably on the end which would be {Skygazer, Uncrowned, PB}

I have no clue what to make of {rooroo, BS}

rb is the guy I replaced, right? and i also heard my slot and PB were fighting a lot earlier in the game?

[AaronFrost]

Yes you replaced rb

[Amrun]

VOTE: Blatant Scum

Zero content all day, literally never commented on TSH even one single time, and was off wagon. Really think this slot is much higher than rand scum.

if he's scum, what are scum doing?

Can you please restate this question?

what was scum's plan to win the game? tsh didn't have that much resistance and a slot like bs is probably going to get lynched sometime

BS might be black flag, who knows. I think TSH was fighting hard and probably did not plan to get lynched. He obviously wanted to lynch me instead so.

I think whatever team BS is on, he’s not being a cooperative player. I certainly don’t think it was scum plan for BS to post no content and TSH to get lynched. But perhaps they thought TSH could fight his lynch off and BS could just quietly not attract attention. Maybe he’s even white flag! Could see it either way. In fact in hindsight I think that’s more likely.

Or he’s just town red herring. I still think it’s worth discussing.

[Amrun]

Skygazer looks like a last-minute counter-wagon. I suggest keeping the vote on TSH.

Clidd, why are we going from this to wanting to kill Sky?

I believe that the speculation about a counter-wagon involving this player was incorrect, otherwise, TSH would be the white flag and Hectic, for having tried to change the direction in the last minutes, would be the gray/black flag.

Why are scum not likely to try and redirect a grey flag lynch?

It doesn't pay. If Hectic defended the gray flag, hypothetically, and failed to redirect the lynch, he would be suspicious for the attempt the next day. In a game state where you only need one more scum elimination to win, this move would not be characteristic of

scum!Hectic

to do.

I don’t think Hectic is scum. There are much less obvious ways to do it, though. You were asserting that scum likely bussed and I want to know why because that’s not how I see it.

How do you see, then ? I do not believe that it was clear these other

'' ways ''

that you unconsciously theorized, but it is evident that the method of diverting attention from

TSH

(more precisely

TSE

), sooner or later, would result in their own lynch. Therefore, it would be more beneficial if one of the flags used this device to appear '' justifiable '' when voting for they, thus being in a better position the next day.

Why wouldn’t scum try to redirect onto town? I really don’t get it. I think skygazer is likely town for this reason, and you seemed to think so yesterday. I don’t get your reversal today.

[Amrun]

@Aaron:

Interesting thoughts on CSF. I actually came into the day suspecting CSF because I remembered them defending TSH more but their thoughts at the end of the day did come off well to me too. I mean, I’d expect a bus at that point anyway, but something about it just came off fine after all.

Feeling good about AF after that.

Why do you think it spews clidd town?

[Skygazer]

omfg im so stoned



clidd why do u want me gone

It's not personal, just a suggestion.

That doesn't really answer my question whatsoever. Why are you scum reading me?

[Skygazer]

also why r u townreading uncrowned

Intuition. The right question would be:

"why not ?"

Uncrowned had THC as their strongest scum read for like a long ass time w/o any sort of solid explanation and just kinda focused and vote-parked on rooroo for a while instead and then reversed reads when pressured on it by cat. It comes across at TMI or like a half-assed bus to me

[Skygazer]

Skygazer looks like a last-minute counter-wagon. I suggest keeping the vote on TSH.

Clidd, why are we going from this to wanting to kill Sky?

I believe that the speculation about a counter-wagon involving this player was incorrect, otherwise, TSH would be the white flag and Hectic, for having tried to change the direction in the last minutes, would be the gray/black flag.

Scum still wouldn't want the grey-flag gone! You shouldn't write off the possibility of a counter-wagon just because TSH wasn't white-flag.

[Uncrowned]

First, I don't bus.

Second, I was attempting to get low content slots into the game. It was an early phase and neither Rooroo or Creature had given content with substance. I'd rather not let slots sit by idly and just go for a lynch on what appeared to be obvscum when we can still get valuable information.

Did it work this time? Not really tbh. But if given the option I'd try it again.

[Skygazer]

Why don't you bus?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Busy today. Will post tomorrow

[Uncrowned]

Because I think it's very suboptimal D1 play and puts you on the back foot.

[the worst]

vote count 2.02

Blatant Scum (1) - Amrun

not voting: AaronFrost, Uncrowned, woodchuck321, BlatantScum, Hectic, Skygazer, Rooroo, clidd, Pink Ball, Cat Scratch Fever

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-02-27 08:15:00)

mod notes: quack.

[AaronFrost]

@Aaron:

Interesting thoughts on CSF. I actually came into the day suspecting CSF because I remembered them defending TSH more but their thoughts at the end of the day did come off well to me too. I mean, I’d expect a bus at that point anyway, but something about it just came off fine after all.

Feeling good about AF after that.

Why do you think it spews clidd town?

I thought the progression on TSH and the way they were drilling them with questions was genuine. Even thought they didn't actually place their vote until near the end of day, the progression was pretty good.

clidd was one of the earlier voters on the TSH wagon. I don't see scum bussing their grey flag that early in the game.

[Pink Ball]

There's a theory that will get me lynched today but I like it so much that I'll post it anyway 'cause it's worth it uwu

[AaronFrost]

BS might be black flag, who knows. I think TSH was fighting hard and probably did not plan to get lynched. He obviously wanted to lynch me instead so.

I think whatever team BS is on, he’s not being a cooperative player. I certainly don’t think it was scum plan for BS to post no content and TSH to get lynched. But perhaps they thought TSH could fight his lynch off and BS could just quietly not attract attention. Maybe he’s even white flag! Could see it either way. In fact in hindsight I think that’s more likely.

Or he’s just town red herring. I still think it’s worth discussing.

I think it's worth discussing too.

From my experience with him, BS is a lurker regardless of alignment, so the lurking itself is NAI for him. I'll have to ISO him because I don't really remember much of what he's done to be honest, even on my reread.

Also the more I think about it, I think TSH scum indicates that rooroo is town. There was a counter wagon that started on them right as the TSH wagon started to take off, a counterwagon that felt scum motivated.

rooroo (3): Looker, Uncrowned, woodchuck321

We know Looker is town because they died and woodchuck is spewed town from the TSH flip so that leaves Uncrowned.

[Pink Ball]

Hot Take.
This is scum theatre.
And CSF and Hectic are scum buddies.

Like, would he be this cheeky? I love the idea of this being the scumteam

[Pink Ball]

I will just let everyone get in and get acquainted; it's too early to just be rushing in.

da wolf hath been caught

Like here's him doing it again

[Pink Ball]

I will just let everyone get in and get acquainted; it's too early to just be rushing in.

I'll just let everyone get in and get acquainted; it's too early to just be rushing in

Hot Take: Planned Via Scum Chat?

Aaaand there goes my theory. Nope, I'm back to my initial thought: this guy is too literal, I think he pushed town and defended scum, as a literal guy would do.

[Pink Ball]

And hey, what the hell. clidd is an IC, right?