TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

[Flavor Leaf]

Don’t act like I was the only one who got pushed for a slip yesterday. It was 2 of us

[Gammagooey]

The thing is, y’all are bringing this stuff up a day and a half too late, which shows you only started to care when you needed ammo for a mislynch somewhere.

so am i conf town or not

(I'm not but don't try to appeal to me saying that I am and then say shit like this after)

[Flavor Leaf]

The thing is, y’all are bringing this stuff up a day and a half too late, which shows you only started to care when you needed ammo for a mislynch somewhere.

so am i conf town or not

(I'm not but don't try to appeal to me saying that I am and then say shit like this after)

The only way you’re not conf town is if Dave commuted last night. Or EP is scum lying, which yeah...

from my POV, you’re conftown.

How are you not conf?

They can say that you’re scum with me, and I was trying to get you to be able to deepwolf, but other than that, you’re conf town.

You know this isn’t the case, and I know this isn’t the case.

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel like you literally haven’t comprehended anything that’s happened in the past 2 or 3 day phases, and you don’t realize it.

[Flavor Leaf]

In my massclaim, I said the lightning rod is X-shot. FL and I specifically talked about doing this in our hood to make it seem stronger + thus more of a threat to scum.

MASSCLAIM:
Hood: Leading Actors
Members: EP, FL, X Elements
Power: Doctor
LMS: X-shot lightning rod

So, @Ank, how did you know it was a 1-shot

before

anyone in the thread mentioned it?

RED ALERT

Please finish the massclaim:

Almost50 - Ankamius - Chennisden

- Vote Remove / Vigilante

Elements - EspressoPatronum - Flavor Leaf

- Doctor / 1shot Lightning Rod

Firebringer - nomnomnom - Volpe14

- Commuter / Vengeful

Kuribo - MariaR - Panthaleon

- Roleblocker / ???

Dr Easy Bake - Gammagooey - Volxen

- ??? / ???

Davesaz - Deasvail - Farkran

- Inventor / ???

Basically everything is out already so there's no reason to just leave the rest unclaimed

(this message from EC)

Good catch! Good catch indeed!!

The problem is this has like 1163 different explanations!

Like, Scum!Ank slipped? She either knew it from you (EP) or from FL... OR made a logical deduction (how many shots does a Lightening Rod usually get anyway??), or it was mentioned in the Scum PT with NEITHER FL/EP being Scum, or it was her skimming and not paying much attention... etc.

These are all possible. It's also possible that scum has individual powers akin to the revealing powers.

I'm not so much concerned which specific scenario gave her the information, rather than the fact that she had the information before it was public knowledge.

She had the chance to tell us, but she instead decided to deflect by joking and then deflect again onto EC.

Town!Ank ALSO could've skimmed and made that assumption, or could have deduced it. She obviously would not have learned about it from either of FL/EP nor would she have read in the Scum PT, but she could also be making a WRONG assumption and you really are X shot (where X > 1, which is unlikely but theoretically valid).

Oh, wait! It could have been from her TEAM PT (and it still could be Town or Scum).

I'll spare you what the other 1153 explanations are for now (saving some space and time), but to sum it all up.. this is NAI. (Note: NAI as IT COULD BE TRUE IR IT COULD BE FALSE).

You're right... It could be NAI. It could also be a scum slip.

In light of several other reasons to scumread Ank - many of which I've outlined in past posts - I think it's a scum slip.

My question here is: WHAT DO SCUM GAIN FROM A LIGHTNING ROD ABILITY?? Do they want to redirect the kill unto themselves?? If so, WHY THE HELL DID THEY SABOTAGE THE COMMUTER HOOD BEFOREHAND? It was their ONLY way to survive without being sus as hell. (Note: FL declared he won't be using the ability and it does look bad on him of he doesn't die either way).

Still, I don't think the designers decided to factor in precisely THAT, and thus still think EP/FL are both Town, hence Ank could not have learned about the 1-shot thing from either, and thus it still is bloody NAI in my book.

What if she learned it by other means?

P.S. I could very much bend my narrative ANYWAY you like me to. I mean, Yes.. Ank is Scum with FL and you can reread the whole game and find a load of fitting evidence. Or you can assume Ank is Town and EP is Scum trying to capitalize on an honest mistake and you still could find enough evidence to support the case too.

Do you think all of my other posts outlining Ank's scumminess are disingenuous?

Now another question: Why would Scum want to give ME the Vig shot?? I don't think ANYONE would be able to guess whom I might shoot (not even I tbh) at this point.

So, you see.. this -and more- is all going through my head, and I don't know what to do!

These are all great considerations. You could also ask yourself why town wants you to get the vig. To answer that, I suggest you shoot nom.

Shooting nom nullifies the risk of scum!nom venge killing someone, but it opens us to the risk of town!nom losing a venge kill on potential scum.

As it stands, my team and I think you're far more likely town than nom, so I'd rather give you the choice to kill than nom.

@Ank - you seriously trying to play dumb about EP pushing you yesterday?

I didn’t agree with the scum slip because it required me or EP to be scum as well bar an ability.

[Ankamius]

Oh, the xshot thing?

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I don’t agree with it, but knowing I’m town and people being nit picky and not really reading is just something I thought of.

[Flavor Leaf]

The thing is, y’all are bringing this stuff up a day and a half too late, which shows you only started to care when you needed ammo for a mislynch somewhere.

I’m talking to general scum here, not whoever has been posting.

Also, Gamma, read please.

I clearly posted here implying I straight up didn’t mean you.

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s literally the post right after because I realized you were going to see it as you, that’s the entire point of the post

[Gammagooey]

I was hoping panth would stop in before I did my FEELINGS post but nows as good a time as any

I'm probably not going to go back and look up anything for this post in particular b/c I just want to get my gut thoughts out atm - if you strongly disagree with something I say and want to talk about it go for it

I think the game's been frankly kind of exhausting for most of the people playing it closely? I think it's pretty clear that in particular Ank and kuribo and Almost and I have dumped a lot of effort and emotion into the game regardless of our alignments.

I think that I personally have largely had mediocre reads at best so far, probably leaning towards just bad considering DV and nom's flips (even if I do get to harrumph and internally bitch about DV's only scum read for most of the game flipping town, but nom was town and both her and DV's lynch were probably more my fault than anyone's)

I think I should have looked harder at FL's potential slip when it was made, I shrugged it off as 'well Maria was already voting Ank so it doesn't make a ton of sense to be a slip' at the time without looking further into whether it made sense as a message actually directed at EP, and I don't think it does and if you take the time to look at the context around it from both Maria & EP then & what EP's said about it today I kind of fail to see how FL's explanation of it being directed at EP and who he should vote holds up in comparison to it being directed at Maria-scum who was considering changing her vote to FL at the time. And yes I know it's a pain to reread and this game has been a slog but it's worth the analysis from everyone.

I also think that the noise and speed of the game contributed a lot to that getting shrugged off and FL and Maria were largely responsible for how fast the posting was at the time, but I'd rather not bitch too much about it when I think it's my fault for missing it as much as anyone else's.

FL has been spamposting enormously in what I think is just him trying to draw the conversation to literally anything except the slip to EP because I genuinely don't think it's convincingly defendable as making more sense coming from town than scum by him

and lastly I want to go over my gut reads on people who aren't FL.
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EP is imo, VERY VERY clearly town based on how Maria treated him, Maria pushed him from the very beginning of day 1 in a way that I don't think she could back away from if EP ever became a semi-serious wagon and never let up on him through the entire game

Ank being scum with FL seems like frankly, a minor form of madness to me, I'm not going back to check atm but it felt like Maria and FL both pushed for her death genuinely, and Ank being the scum push of the day makes a lot of sense to me

I am looking this up to be specific- I asked DEB in literally the most 'please do this I will help you by finding what pages are relevant if you need me to' way I could think of to read over some of dave/maria/almost/EP and tell me what he thought in the CEO topic with a few real life days until deadline Day 4, and his response was (slightly paraphrased) I won't reread them unless I want to. I HATE the fact that he is not willing to put in fucking any relevant effort to the game, I don't think it feels town, and I think Almost has a point with Maria pushing on DEB when it was convenient but it felt like never really caring enough to actually advocate killing him when he did get wagoned when everyone got fed up with DEB doing nothing and he got to around L-2 or so.

I've been scumreading Almost for most of the game and I'm still a little paranoid of him but his posts yesterday and today have seemed very good, I can absolutely see him as town that got frustrated with the game and kind of settled into just being annoyed for a while until today

dave I still dislike - he had a really smug sounding comment about FL's slip when it happened, I think that his making a deal out of switching to FL about it not being 'optimal' feels like posturing and his comments about "I'm the closest thing to a cop" and "I'd never lynch someone in my position" are horseshit given that literally the entire game are in neighborhoods and there's no reason his would be immune from having scum in it aside from dumb out-guessing the mod theories about an investigation neighborhood

Fire I like more than at least Ank does and probably several other people, but I'm not terribly confident in it. He seems like he's trying to influence the game with who he thinks is scum and he's seemed worn down by the game like a lot of other people have been.

kuribo's kinda the same - he's BELIEVED in his town read on nom imo and his anger is not fake regardless of his alignment and he's been passionate and invested in the game and how it's been going.

panth I am taking a mulligan on until he shows up and I reread him because I haven't yet and I should.
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It just snowed today so I'm gonna go enjoy the winter atmosphere and get dinner and have hot chocolate and go enjoy myself, so I won't be back 'til tomorrow morning. Peace for now friends!

[Flavor Leaf]

Now do analysis with the knowledge of me flipping town.

Even if you don’t believe it, humor it for now

[Flavor Leaf]

I won a scum game with you years back, on Boonskiies, spam posting is just how I play. I’m a mobile player.

Ask DEB how my text messages are. I’m the same exact way.

[Flavor Leaf]

Also?!?!? I HAVENT DUMPED A LOT OF EFFORT AND EMOTION INTO THIS GAME?!?!

[Ankamius]

A MESSAGE FROM EDDIE CANE
---

This post is going to operate by an assumption of a 4-man scumteam. If it turns out there's only three, then that's even better. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I have reread from roughly pages 85-160 and I really wish this stupid paraphrasing thing wasn't actually a thing so you could read my actual posts (and the tilt at how bad some of them are).

--1-- I've been doing a lot of solving from behind the scenes. I've asked Ank to not post most of the stuff I say in the discord, and I haven't even told her everything either. Generally, this game sucks, but it CAN be solved. Everything I've asked her to post has been to either spew her town or push the game in a direction that will let me sort the game. For example, the game was apathetic, so I pushed her to start 1v1ing Kuribo to get some opinions and pushes in the thread. I point you back to this post with my hard-solve. When I don't have an independent, strong scum read, I choose to solve the game via movement perspective instead. I will discuss my individual reads later on, but for now, note that the top bracket has been found. What I am looking at, most likely, is FL + 1 of {DEB/Gamma} + 1 of {FB/Dave} as the solve. I will discuss this in more detail throughout this post, and I

am

going to try to case my reads to get the thread on the same page.

--2-- Town Case of EspressoPatronum: General townie posts today, plus he has not rolled scum on this site and is posting at a good level. Good reevaluation yesterday and was spewed town by MariaR at several points in their earlier ISO, around page 100 or so IIRC. Not reconsidering this read again.

--3-- Town Case of Almost50: He has several posts that, individually, I believe are way out of his scum range. Generally, he's consistently townie, although bad at some points as well. I asked for team reads in our team PT at one point and he came back pretty quickly with essentially an essay, which is +town points. I had a good discussion with him in the last night phase (with Ank proxying) in real time that is also ++town points. I don't have evidence that he's capable of playing to this level as scum, so I feel good about him being town. If FL flips town, however, this drops from locktown to somewhere between leaning town and strong town.

--4-- Town Case of Kuribo: Albeit not impossible, it's unlikely there's two scum in one neighborhood. I went along with Ank's push on him to see how he reacted, mostly. Scum in situations like this are more likely to back out of the tunnel, like how unwnd unvoted me in the Open game when I walled. Tilted town are more likely to not see how town somebody is being, not TMI that townness, and continue tunneling. I helped Ank project town significantly, and Kuribo not seeing that was actually town indicative. Generally, A50 and nom both looking town is a good look for Kuribo as well. Pushing FL today is also a good look.
--4a-- btw, if you're town, in post game I'd love to talk about how ank using her vote steal power is worse than you randomly roleblocking.

--5-- Town Case of Panthaleon: Albeit not impossible, it's unlikely there's two scum in one neighborhood. Vex Vience's notes are generally out of his scum range based on my knowledge of him. His posting to DeasVail in twilight is also significantly town indicative "44- Maria calls Vex townlock. Complains that I'm not around." is more likely to be a pocket attempt than scum aligning.

--6-- Panthaleon and Kuribo

could

have one more scum within them, but I lean against it. If there are, we aren't looking for said scum today anyways.

--7-- Nomnomnom: I don't regret the nomnomnom lynch. I maintain that it was always the correct lynch; we have confirmed data as well as flipped a contested slot <-- will get to this in my next point. Ank never posted the wall I wrote about why Nom is always the best lynch yesterday because she disagreed with it, so you guys weren't privy to this tidbit, but my main reason for lynching nomnomnom wasn't for her alignment. If she's scum, we kill scum. If she's town, that's really our only shot of hitting scum at 8:4. And lo and behold, nomnomnom did it, good on her! You really think scum would've gotten lynched yesterday? Ank and I both pushed MariaR and there was zero traction. I don't know, maybe if DEB was a scum lynch, maybe we could have gotten a scum lynch? But that's really it.

--8-- NKA is a thing. Scum have been consistently killing the most townread players I believe. However, the Volpe and Chennisden nightkills really should lead to the conclusion that Ank is town; Volpe was literally

sheeping

her, and Chenn's highest townread, I believe, was also her. I'm just saying, anybody who's been scum with me knows I think those would have been the worst kills to make, especially when PR reads aren't a thing. Also, MariaR with an Ank scumpartner doesn't discredit my content by saying it's within my scumrange. Also, imo MariaR was openly buddying with Ank too much for them to be partners, but ymmv with that one.

--9-- I think my content has been townread by anybody who's given a read, with the counter point being about this "being within my scum range." I mean... sure, you can say that to everything. In white flag, I wallposted through Dann and caught some flak for it (even though my Day 1 PoE had all 3 scum in my 5-person list, two of them being my wagon suggestions for him.) Day one is my strongest day and this day ended with an Elements modkill which essentially killed my willpower to read through the day, so I'm not expecting that level. However, I would appreciate those of you, like Kuribo, who don't know me quite as well to keep in mind that I'm one of those players that changes my reads many many times, and I'm really just helping town!Ank try to help town win a game that most people really aren't participating in. Ank wanted to sub out because of how ridiculous the reads on her were. She is way out of her scum range by this point, even ignoring my own posts. I am trying to mediate as much as I can.

--10-- Now, let's talk about mechanics! First, Dave's role: ...who cares? The odds that a 1-shot watcher or 1-shot tracker catch scum are very low, especially since a town!Dave likely used both by now. It isn't a cop check. I honestly couldn't care less about the role, since Davesaz's alignment is a lot more important to sort than the very low chance he is both town

and

guilties scum. Also, his attitude is irritating me.
@EP: that gambit is basically useless, my dude. I appreciate the sentiment though.

--11-- Back to players now! I'm looking at a lynch pool containing GammaGooey, Dr Easy Bake, Flavor Leaf, Firebringer, and Davesaz. This is in no particular order. Davesaz first: I want to highlight what I think is a

very

important quote.

26- Maria wants to block dave, also suggests DV.

What do you think is the most important hood for scum to block? What do you think the odds are that scum randomly selected two townies in what would be an all-town hood? (ANK NOTE: keep in mind that the scumteam outed MY hood night one, a VERY LIKELY all-town hood) I'm struggling to get past this. Also, the DV flashlynch at the end of day three had davesaz at the front of the wagon, with Gamma/FL/Firebringer as the last three slots... a group of three players that almost certainly has scum within it. In addition to this, DEB wanted to hammer it. Scum shouldn't have cared that much, because the alternative lynch was nomnomnom... who we know was town. So that lynch going through so quickly is just skeevy to me. I do think Davesaz is more town than not tonally, but the gamestate points against him are a lot to stomach from town for me. I told A50 I'd respect his townread for now and not push him today, but this is stuff I worry about.

--12-- GammaGooey: town...ish? Still nothing spewing him town outside of his scumrange, and I still want hitogoroshi content to read.

--13-- DEB: idfk lmao. He could be scum, I guess. He had some townish posts from his team, but he's been generally useless. Openly sheeping Ank is weird if scum, bit of a big balls move to talk to her like he has. It makes sense with her pushing on town at the time. He could die.

--14-- Firebringer: I think his scum equity has gone way up. His townread of FL, if he's town, makes the scumteam very very narrow. I think there's at least one of {FL, FB} in every one of my top solve picks. I think him pushing nomnomnom and kuribo and egging Ank on looks worse with Kuribo being probably town and Nomnomnom confirmed town. I don't love him not addressing Kuribo at all today, and don't like RC's solve of "Ank + Flavor Leaf." I've never seen him post this much content in the two times I've seen him.

--15-- Flavor Leaf: If he flips town, then this game is bizarre. I think if this was the case, the team would have to be something like {Fire, DEB, Dave (maaaaybe A50 if DEB is town)(maaaaaybe one more in RB hood)}. I went into night thinking he probably wasn't with MariaR, but I discussed with A50 in the PT who was certain on FL being scum and did some rereading on my own. What I saw was a lot more of what my initial doubt on FL was; he looks like he is trying to tie Ank in with a flip of himself or MariaR. He has a lot of posts that say he can only be scum with Ank, or Ank looks worse with MariaR, etc. I hate those posts. His constant hard-defense of DEB is scummy regardless of what DEB is. I think this flip is optimal because if it flips town, assuming EP is

also

town, then Gamma is probably cleared. If somebody was going to no-kill gambit in this playerlist, it would likely be FL. I don't know, he's done it with me before too (I like evens as scum too btw! They're super scumsided actually, but it's bad here mechanically.)

So... yeah. My PoE is somewhere around {Gamma > Davesaz/Firebringer/FL/DEB}. I don't think a lot of slots have projected theirselves as town very well. Obviously, though, we are in a better spot than yesterday.

[Firebringer]

I never really pushed nom. I mean I voted her out of exasperation but saying I pushed out of it.

Also how did I push ank

[Ankamius]

I hope you fucks are satisfied with that

I wanted to go to bed an hour ago and I spent that time typing up word vomit instead

[Firebringer]

I am always satisfied when ur around

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t kill the most town read players

[Flavor Leaf]

I hope you fucks are satisfied with that

I wanted to go to bed an hour ago and I spent that time typing up word vomit instead

It’s solid, but it’s wrong and all goes under the assumption that I’m scum.

There’s absolutely no preparations for going into tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

A MESSAGE FROM EDDIE CANE
---

I never really pushed nom. I mean I voted her out of exasperation but saying I pushed out of it.

Also how did I push ank

I meant egged on, as in egging Ank on when she's pushing town, not pushed as in you thought she was scum.

I hope you fucks are satisfied with that

I wanted to go to bed an hour ago and I spent that time typing up word vomit instead

It’s solid, but it’s wrong and all goes under the assumption that I’m scum.

There’s absolutely no preparations for going into tomorrow.

I think you're scum, but I think you are. My solve is not based on that.

[Ankamius]

I'm going to bed so you can stew on that

yw

[panthaleon]

Wow a lot of posts happened

I'm having a difficult time understanding the scum read on FL. Take with a grain of salt that I usually town read people that scum read me, but the severe arrogance and demanding the spotlight don't read to me like scum trying to close out the game. It reads as town upset no one is listening to him.

Kuribo gets to be promoted back up to probably town. If he wanted to mislynch me, it would have been pretty easy for him to paint me worse in the neighborhood and he didn't.

If FL is town, that indicates gamma as town which is p cool I guess.

I still feel like DEB should have died ages ago. A50 still bothers me from when they just have their vote to kuribo.

Can someone remind me what Dave's group is?

[panthaleon]

Like ability

[Firebringer]

I meant egged on, as in egging Ank on when she's pushing town, not pushed as in you thought she was scum.

pretty sure i never did that

[Firebringer]

okay rc message for u:

fl and ank are both scum they have been obvious as a pairing with maria since mid day 2 and since we got a scum flip i can finally see that, ank kept doing pushes on maria and FL then finding excuses to drop it and someone is competent in the scum team to realize that maria and FL were outted for days and since they are still advocating for us (me) to be lynched that is outside their town ranges