Newbie 1986 - Game Over

[dsjstr]

VOTE: Alo

L-3

[Aloratom]

I know I had just said they seemed TvS but based on previous knowledge of both players as see this ending up being TvT.

Alo would be my top scum read now. I just don't see him as caring about solving the game.

You're talking about Spy and TSE as TvT?

[dsjstr]

Yes

[Aloratom]

This reads list feels a bit shallow after a massive lurk - I feel its mainly full of vibes without really referencing any posts to back up reads, which gives me a feel of reads-list for the sake of a list.

Your reads on Natsu feels like it could be genuine. I'm not too big on meta, still null read on him myself.

Your read on IMA makes no sense to me. You disagree with IMA's reads and then state that you TR IMA. Zero clarficiation.

Agree with your reads on Jumble and DSJ as town right now, but you havent provided any fresh reads as to why they may be town.

Your line regarding me, 72offsuit looks like a good replacement. I'm looking forward to more from him"", feels like scum trying to pocket me after I stated my slight scumlean on you. Zero comment on the actual content in my reads list.

Dont agree with your scum read and the reasoning on GB. You say fence sitting is weak - I think its a big scumtell. I called you out on fence sitting first.
Why did you not respond to my accusation of fence sitting, but rather to GB?

You give a scum lean to Volxen, someone who has posted about as much as you. Going by your own logic, why are you not scum for your lurking?

Your read on TSE, you dismiss his scuminess as 'bad play'. I don;t see his play as bad at all. I think he is scummy scum.

IMASPY -- misread last time, don't understand his read on volxen -- thus slight town lean -- understand? slight town lean -- want clarification? go to dictionary look up "slight" "lean"

72offsuit -- good replacement as in active replacement. Zero comments on your reads list because it was posted one hour before I posted,

and I didn't want to go through it but I wanted to acknowledge it.

GB --

See above

volxen -- I assigned a null scum lean. Given your logic, why am I not a null scum lean?

You've pushed TSE and me. Where is your push on volxen? Seems your read on him and me were the same.

He did not finish his list and he wanted us to figure out how to place 72 and GB, those two are not even reads?

Those that weren't on the reply list were those that I agreed with 72offsuit's interpretation of my reads on.With 72offsuit I did not have a read on at the time, but wanted to clear up the "good" vs "active" language. And with GB, "see above" was as in "see above my response regarding why I didn't respond to 72offsuit's readlist but still wanted to acknowledge it."

[Aloratom]

Yes

Thank you.

[Aloratom]

No questions for it at all?!? Just gonna let me scum read Alo without explaining myself!?!

Spoiler:

I don't think anyone followed up on this. I'm interested.

[dsjstr]

Yes

Thank you.

Do you agree with me?

[Aloratom]

Yes

Thank you.

Do you agree with me?

I lean that way.

What do you think of Jumble's ISO?

I stab you to death

Good entrance

@Jumble DSJ never pointed out that theres scum on your wagon. Only questioned why volx thinks it might be all town. Why do you think scum would form a wagon on you so early?

Agh, skimmed too hard and misread a post. I guess they would wagon me based on my username bc it's easy to make fun of? There's not really much to form a wagon on in RVS.

Not concerned with RVS wagon, which is good.

Do you think scum!you would be voted on by your partner from what the Game State is currently at RN?

Probably not, but you still need to answer my question about making claims this early.

Followed-up here, which is good.

@Aloratom why are you posting so little?

Anything in particular you want to talk about?

What are your thoughts on L-2 (or 1) in newbie games during RVS?

No follow-up after I answered.

We should wait till day 5 to lynch off a slot for being inactive. Likely we will have a replacement come in.

Do newbie games even make it to day 5 with any sort of consistency?

No follow-up.

Sure, there might be a link between lurking and being scum, but at the same time I'm pretty sure Navneet has just completely flaked and we should wait for his replacement. GB is also a bit lurky, but we can fix that by sending a few questions his way. As for volxen, I'm not really sure why you want to push a lynch on him exactly. Could you explain your reasoning?

No follow-up.

I'm interested in Jumbles recent post though. @Jumble, what questions do you have for me?

Why are you town-reading Alora?

No follow-up.

Those percentages seem a bit too precise to me. Do you really know your confidence down to the percent?

No follow-up.

Two RVS votes.

Dead silence.

[volxen]

Also Volxen, what’s your read on Spy?

I think that Spy is most likely town. I'm hard scumreading your slot and I don't think that Spy and you are ever SvS in this game; both scum getting up to L-1 and pushing each other's wagons seems highly unlikely at this stage of the game. That aside, I think that Spy talking about being willing to hammer himself and actually putting his own slot up to L-1 is towny. I've seen experienced players make some risky plays as scum to try and use AtE to get townread, but I think that kind of thing is a lot more likely to come from town!Spy than scum!Spy. And similar to my reasoning for townreading Natsu, Spy expressed a townread on me fairly early on in the game, at a point where I don't think that it would really benefit scum!Spy to fake a townread on me.

[volxen]

Natsu seems to think I’m buddies with Alo so to give GB more creditability and to get reaction off Natsu
I’m thinking we lynch Alo.

Also keep in mind.
Natsu Defended Jumble as not to lynch Day 1
Spy Defended Natsu as not to lynch Day 1

Makes me think the teams as simple as Spy/Alo but yet I still can’t get any Town vibes from Volxen.

If Alora is scum, why do you think that Spy is more likely than me to be his partner?

It’s hard for me to call Jumble, Natsu AND Spy.
All Town.

So your current solve is that there is one scum in {Alora, me} and one scum in {Jumble, Natsu, Spy}? You mentioned a Spy/Alora team but who out of those three do you think is the most likely to be partnered with me?

And regarding Natsu I think that he is town. He's been defending my slot a fair amount, and he even at one point responded to a post from DS where DS misunderstood one of my posts before I could respond to DS myself (182). Given the current gamestate, I don't think that it makes sense for scum!Natsu to defend me as that doesn't really benefit him. Scum usually buddy/defend town players that are widely townread to get on their good side, and when they defend town players that are getting scumread it's usually because they believe that said town player is going to get lynched anyways and they want the town credit for opposing the lynch and calling them town before they flipped green. Neither of those apply here, as I'm not widely townread and it's too early in the day phase to know who is going to get lynched. I believe that Natsu believes the things that he has been saying about my slot.

This last part doesnt make sense to me. If Natsu is scum and you are town, then Natsu believes what he is saying about your slot because he would know that you are town.

I was implying that I think that Natusu is town and that he was defending me because he is genuinely townreading (or at least townleaning) me, as opposed to him being scum and knowing for a fact that I'm town.

[volxen]

VOTE: Volxen

I’d rather we lynch this as if he is scum it’ll be harder to get him lynched later on then that of Spy and Alo.

It's interesting that this comes only after I point out that you and Alora could be SvS. Why do you think that it would be harder to lynch me compared to Alora or Spy on a later day?

1) Yet I don’t see you ever actually willing to vote Alo
2)Because your a stronger player so you’d have a better chance manipulating your way out of being lynched

First I want to get one thing straight with you because trying to keep track of your stances in this game is legitimate work. Is your stance that the scumteam is either me/Alora or Spy/Alora? Because if that's the case then it begs the obvious question of why don't you want to lynch the common denominator (Alora)? And if that's not the case, do you think that me/Spy is a possible scumteam?

And:

1) I never said that I wasn't willing to vote for Alora.
2) I think that this is highly debatable. You're essentially suggesting that I need to be lynched today because if I am scum it will be too hard to lynch me after day one. That’s asking people to lynch me based on paranoia.

I’m surprised you ignored my You/Spy team completely.

Does this mean your scum with Spy?

If you directly mentioned that Spy/me could be a scumteam then, yes, I missed it. I do remember that very early on in the game you said that Spy/me aren't SVS after I asked Spy about why he put Jumble up to L-2 (32). What changed your mind about this?

[dsjstr]

No follow-up.

Two RVS votes.

Dead silence.

If you look at his activity he has just not posted at all, I would not say that is a reason to town or scum read him.

[Micc]

Votecount 1.10

TrueSoulEnergy (3) -

volxen, 72offsuit, IMASPY

IMASPY (1) -

NotAJumbleofNumbers

72offsuit (1) -

Aloratom

volxen (1) -

TrueSoulEnergy

Aloratom (1) -

dsjstr

Not Voting (2) -

Natsu, GeorgeBailey

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-02-29 17:45:00).

Searching for a replacement for NotAJumbleofNumbers.

[Micc]

clidd replaces NotAJumbleofNumbers.

[volxen]

To clarify in case of confusion.
My scum read on you is based around PoE.
IDK about yours.

I'm scumreading you primarily because your push on my slot has been bad -- saying that it's "PoE" doesn't change that. And regarding your PoE, I think that it's highly questionable that town!you would have absolute 100% confidence that all of {DS, George, and 72} are town at this stage of the game (453). You are saying that there is no room for error in this PoE?

And think about your recent vote switch from my point of view. You started off the game tunneling solely on my slot for bad reasons. Then for a while you were pushing Alora, but your push on him didn't really put him in any real danger as his wagon never picked up steam. Then you joined Spy's wagon and helped to put him up to L-1. There was a significant portion of time were you basically backed off of me completely and talked a lot about the scumteam being Spy/Alora. And right after I explained why you and Alora could be SvS, suddenly you have interest in pushing me again. So from my POV, since I think that you and Alora are the two scummiest slots in the game, am I supposed to believe that all of this is just a coincidence? That you losing interest in pushing Alora had nothing to do with me pointing out that the two of you could be scum together?

I am not saying that I am 100% confident that I have solved the game on day one. I am saying that you and Alora are the two scummiest slots in the game, and that also from an associatives standpoint the two of you make sense together as scum partners. Because it's clear that you haven't put Alora in any real danger of being lynched (and vice versa), and if the two of you are scum together then you both realize that one of you flipping red isn't necessarily going to make the other look any townier. Which would explain why you are trying to get my slot, rather than Alora's slot, to rise up as the counter wagon to your own slot.

[volxen]

Welcome Clidd.

[clidd]

Game state summary ?

[clidd]

Nevermind, give me some hours.

[Aloratom]

Welcome, Clidd. Hope you brought a torch.

[Aloratom]

Game state summary ?

It looks like half-way through Day 1 we have a Town solve:

I'm going to revisit you tomorrow TSE. Right now I'm leaning Aloratom + TSE scum team if anyone is wondering.

I am def willing to die to kill TSE. For every 1 post that has some towiness there are 3 or 4 that contribute nothing to town or look scummy.

Alo could very well be his scum team.

TSE/Alora would also kind of make sense. Since they're both pushing the Volxen wagon which is arguably TSE's counter wagon.

This is my way of agreeing with dsjstr on the GB/TSE team.

If TSE is scum I don't think that George is necessarily his most likely partner. TSE and Alora both individually have scum equity and I don't see anything that rules them out as partners. TSE and George have been mutually townreading/defending each other, and with the scrutiny they have both come under I think that it's questionable that their strategy as scum would be mutual defense rather than distancing in this gamestate. Whereas with TSE and Alora, Alora has been consistent in townreading TSE and TSE has been consistent in scumreading Alora. If TSE and Alora are scum together then this one-sided distancing makes sense, as TSE's wagon picked up steam and got up to L-1 whereas Alora's wagon has stalled, so it would be more risky for Alora to push TSE compared to the other way around.

But associatives aside I just think that TSE and Alora are the two scummiest slots in the game.

Agree with this analysis Re TSE scum partner. I don;t recall many mafia games online nor IRL where both scum defend each other. I dont understand the IMA-lynch followed by GB-lynch plan, when TSE and ALo are the scummiest.

So really, we just need to exercise the mechanics and we can all go home.

[clidd]

It seems that most of the times I saw TSE in past games, he was on the scum team. The high posting rate in this game is in line with his meta scum.

[clidd]

Well, I don't think I need to maximize my effort in this game. The playerlist seems competent to elucidate the mechanical peculiarities.

[72offsuit]

Game state summary ?

RVS

Jumble's last post at post 202

I replace in for navneet who had 2 posts, at post 234

TSE run up as biggest wagon

Lots of discussion regarding potential scum partners

IMA self votes in post 409 after recommending a mechanical structure to lynchings

You replace in

[clidd]

Preflip associations are bad, much time is spent on speculation that can be useless. The ideal would be to act objectively in relation to this, and use TSE lynch to obtain information.

[clidd]

I agree with this wagon VOTE: TSE

L-1.