Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Chara]

i apologize for thinking you were set, in that case.

what did you think of my interactions with Nacho and his replies?

[Amrun]

how sure are you it's Nacho and not Hectic?

Idk. Maybe 85/15.

[Amrun]

TOWN
Nacho
Amrun
Chara
Alimidia
Replica
Hectic
Chemist
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
SherlockHolmes
Psyche
Sujimichi
SCUM

I noticed the Amrun vs Suji part around page 6. I am likely hard-siding with Amrun there, this looks like her town meta. Might suffer from agreement bias, but i'll place this among my townreads for today. For the same reason i am inclined to townread Chara too. I mean, scumleaning/pressuring my pred is definitely not a bad sign, pre-replacement, but it's a lurker slot. There are no damning scumtells, and reconsideration is usually a town trait. Read the sujimichi part as a follow up to this.

Replica's suggestion in favor of sparing early, lynching later is... wrong, imo. We pretty much should NEVER spare, in my opinion. How does Spare benefit the town over playing this like a mountainous + FN? If Spare guaranteed a flip, or a significant bonus in endgame, it would be ok. But it does neither, unless we spare exactly 4 town, which i think is unlikely. However, Replica put faith into his argument, it is not scum-indicative of him. I townlean him, i just think we should not follow his strategy as we have nothing to gain from it. FTR i'm referring to 273 and follow-ups.

Probably some extent of agreement bias towards alimidia, but posts 287+ are well made. There is solvability and what looks like sane town paranoia in his words.

I am scumleaning on Billy/Sujimichi slot. I have meta with both, and both are usually much more proactive as town. Sujimichi has redeemable qualities, but right now he seems to be tunneling where he shouldn't be. I have read my pred's ISO, and it's a badly lurk-spotted ISO - i would also be inclined to fight there, but i don't consider it damning enough to create a hard tunnel on me based on my introduction. The post-replacement push in 395 feels forced, like he wants to consolidate a mislynch before people have time to reconsider. Being close to the deadline might validate this theory.

Pine is particularly scummy from my POV - i have played with both town! and scum!pine, he's been lurking in both versions but usually the scum one is more like, trying to busywork at least during the initial stages of the game. Didn't see any Psyche attempt to subvert that, which would be consistent with the current gamestate if he's scum. No need to spice things up when he's not voted by anyone.

Other reads are weaker. I have lots more to say, but i will be able to do so only later when i get back home. A lot of posts and interactions are complex and i will need to reread them, but for the time being,

HURT: sujimichi although i have some reservations over the fact that Amrun, Chara and Nacho are on the same wagons for Spare and Fight. I would like to hear more about what brought you to sheep each other with that regard.

Nacho was lurking at this point - being top TR with no explanation is pretty bizarre. All scumreads are town.

Notable though that I’d expect partner to be middle of the pack here.

[Sujimichi]

i apologize for thinking you were set, in that case.

what did you think of my interactions with Nacho and his replies?

I do not understand his post 2266 as if you had always been a stronger townread, how did he not realize it yesterday? I do agree with his post 2267 in that Amrun would have looked bad if she moved the lynch to Bingle and he flipped town. In the absence of Bingle, and the way his lynch was achieved, it was quite possible that Amrun would have been shot and Farkran would have been lynched the next day.

Is there something specific you would like to point out to me?

This is unrelated to Nachomamma8's posting with regard to you, but as I was reviewing it stood out to me that I did not like Amrun's assertion that she preferred Farkran and felt he had a higher chance of flipping scum.

Chara offered me the opportunity to flip Bingle first, which I considered and discarded in favor of fighting Farkran first, whom I felt had a higher chance of flipping scum.

She was pushing for Bingle much harder than Farkran.

Spoiler: Posts Regarding Bingle/Farkran

Fuck, can we just kill Bingle plz

He’s been posting on site.

[fight]Bingle[/hurt]

GDI lol

HURT: Bingle

Pushing for Bingle but "will take what I can get"

I’m really ok lynching Farkran today. At this point, I’ll take what I can get. But are we really all just cool with Bingle ignoring this thread?

I don’t think Farkran was going to be lynched on day 2, but I absolutely think I, personally, could have rallied a farkran mislynch at some point in the game as scum, as PoE narrows. Like I think it would be easy to do and competent scum would think so as well, though I could be wrong. I think any scum we have here is competent, so... I mean they could have a different perspective than me, but they’re definitely competent.

I don’t think a farkran/nacho team is out of the question but it’s not great, no. Nacho’s treatment of the farkran slot has been pretty weird either way and I can’t decide what it’s more indicative of.

But Nacho/Chara team is now bothering me.

Farkran is "probably just scum" but Bingle is "definitely scum."

Farkran: some things I tonally TR, but he’s shown the least re-evaluation, and I think the reason he’s been hard to lynch besides seeming like they could go through is that they are probably just scum.

Bingle: definitely SR in a vacuum. Obviously. Have liked today’s content more than any other day’s which has me questioning.

These two posts happened within a span of 84 seconds.

Idk man, I kinda want Bingle. I need to think about this a little.

No, I’m tired of deliberation and reconsidering. Let’s just flip this.

HURT: Farkran

[Amrun]

Conclusions: i am strongly considering scum presence in my wagon, given how all these interactions rolled out before i replaced in. That quartet seems too cohesive to be natural. People have been changing opinion on setup spec and reads almost simultaneously, for almost no reason at all. In my first readthrough, Nacho and Amrun seemed the most town but after a more in-depth analysis they are not consistent in their progression and thoughts. Amrun now does look a bit better, but that's mostly a gut-interpretation of her latest townslip. Sujimichi was scummy even before my rep-in, i see no reason to save that so far. Chara is the best out of the four, mostly because of how he picked up my request for a recap, but i do want to hear more.

Why me too what?

"let's not spare"
-posts later-
"spare: guy"

Worth noting: farkran was trying to engage with everyone pushing for asriel death, but ISOd only me and Chara to nitpick, leaving out nacho completely. But Chara was the “best” on the wagon - why?

[Amrun]

@sujimichi: you’re leaving out posts where I said you can consider my vote on Farkran as well, and you’re reading my readslist the opposite of what it says.

Farkran was the only unequivocal scumread there. Bingle says “I definitely scumread them in a vacuum but I’ve been reconsidering today because I like their posting.” That’s the opposite of the intent you apparently took from it. Farkran was a more sure scumread for me there, and at the end of the day, too. This is a departure from some earlier days where it was opposite that, but it’s how I felt yesterday.

[Amrun]

Conclusions: i am strongly considering scum presence in my wagon, given how all these interactions rolled out before i replaced in. That quartet seems too cohesive to be natural. People have been changing opinion on setup spec and reads almost simultaneously, for almost no reason at all. In my first readthrough, Nacho and Amrun seemed the most town but after a more in-depth analysis they are not consistent in their progression and thoughts. Amrun now does look a bit better, but that's mostly a gut-interpretation of her latest townslip. Sujimichi was scummy even before my rep-in, i see no reason to save that so far. Chara is the best out of the four, mostly because of how he picked up my request for a recap, but i do want to hear more.

This is where i come from though - out of that group, both Chara and Suji placed an opportunistic vote on my slot, but in a Chara vs Suji 1v1 i would always side with Chara. The same holds true for Amrun vs Suji and Nacho vs Suji, which means i think Suji is the scum on my wagon so far. Could be 2 scum, which would point to Chara/Suji out of those 4, but... i have them as disaligned. Why wouldn't that specific scumteam join their efforts against me instead of diverging after i replace in?

Again mostly ignoring nacho.

[Amrun]

This isn't well fleshed out but skimming today I'd put scum as something like lying in Nacho/Psyche/Farkran and the rest are town, next guess probably being Chemist.

Is this still due to Asriel, or do you scumread anything in my own posts as Farkran?

Also i'm wondering how Nacho specifically has now became consensus FoS from Suji and Replica (and sherlock, but he looks independent from the other two), but none of them are questioning the towniness of Hectic (Nacho is the leading train for his spare) or my scumminess (Nacho is the only remaining fight vote on me). Actually, i have to admit Suji did question my scumminess by switching his vote to Nacho. Hmmm.

Nacho, i'd like to hear your opinion on these interactions from you, please.

Trying to pivot town suspicion from nacho to Hectic.

At very least, I'm sympathetic w/ suspicion against nacho. I think it's because I've picked up kinda high expectations for his townplay, and he doesn't seem to really be meeting them here. But that's so weak! I'm totally aware that it's so weak!

I don't like Hectic's or Sherlock's schtick. They're both quite distracting. I disagree w/ Nacho's mentioned rationale re:Hectic asserting the towniness of loose/chilled-out play. My experience is that it's way easier to relax in a game thread w/o the burden of having no idea who scum is. There's so much less responsibility for what you say in a situation like that - all sorts of bullshit becomes game!

Do agree though that Sujimishi's gameplay here is a lot different from his in micro 917. In general, Hectic's posts are reasonably substantive and don't seem very disingenuous. I guess in the end I do think the Spare call has some ground? Yeah, I'm actually willing to enthusiastically roll with that.

Ok, I feel better. I'm starting to get opinions. I'd rather we lynch people. But finding town can be so much easier than deciding someone's scum, in my experience. Ugh.

And this. At least this one is questioning Hectic spare. Still, it feels very weird that my highest scumreads are now SLing nacho.

I hate to interrupt my catchup but i need to be away several hours, working away from home today. I'll get back this evening.

More of the above. It’s “weird” that his scumreads are scumleaning nacho, but he doesn’t resolve this by re-evaluating nacho.

I admit i missed Nacho's V/LA post too. This is... problematic. I have stuff i wanted to hear from nacho, but he's not coming back before deadline. I did not particularly scumread him though, especially given the recent swing against him. I don't like people going V/LA around deadlines when the day hasn't been decided yet, but i guess this is justified with the replacements coming in.

I really don't like psyche posts either... next post will include details. I am starting to have too many scumreads, i need to update my readlist and make order in my thoughts. Also coming in the very near future.

Pedit: where did you notice the differences between that scum!suji and this suji? Because if we're talking about the same game (Micro 917 saga stuff), he fakeclaimed a PR, no wonder why he was using a more determined tone. Plus, that's also a very nice scum game from him, and i don't see anything in this game that would be outside of his range.

Pedit2: ok, thanks. Question though, is there a reason why you specifically do NOT want to fight your scumreads? Why am i the only one who thinks that all the spare route rewards except the instant town win actually favor scum? In all of these, mafia gets to remove X people from the remaining list, it's not like we gain players. The 3 Spared scenario is especially bad because mafia gets to remove 2 players unflipped and we do NOT get to know if they were forced to remove one of them or not. Also what happens in the 1 Spared scenario if that spared player is scum? Is that an instant scum win? Because ... how can an unlynchable scum be removed otherwise?

The paragraph about nacho could come from scum perspective just as easily as town perspective.



It’s nacho, y’all. Please don’t be lured by Farkran’s attempts to WIFOM my slot.

[Amrun]

I mean, i'm trying to do reality checks on my reads, not falling victim to death tunnels, etc, but i just can't interpret the gamestate any differently than what i'm been pushing today.

READLIST 2.0

TOWN

Suji

Sherlock

Chemist
Amrun
Replica
Bingle
Nacho
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
Psyche
Chara
Hectic

SCUM

The slot i'd love to hear now is Nacho. He was a strong pusher for Hectic's spare, and there have been interactions with the Psyche slot i would like to have clarified. I want to see if anything has changed in the last ~25 pages worth of content. Posts 884-885 are full of promises that haven't been delivered.

For posterity.


Farkran’s ISO is full of subtle shade and not subtle shade at Chara. It’s not Chara.

My confidence is growing.

[Nachomamma8]

I’m just kind of at the point where if it’s Chara I’m fucking pocketed so whatever. I don’t think it is.

The timing of your townread here moving from paranoid to confident on Chara is convenient if you're scum; if town, I don't see why there's increased confidence in Chara as opposed to just increased confidence in me if you don't like the way I'm acting. I don't like the fact you keep talking about townreading Chara - feels more like you're appealing to it as opposed to actually seeking out something organic.

[Nachomamma8]

I think Farkran spending the days going after soared-Hectic-partner would be very clever. Hectic can’t argue, the chances anyone really listens is low... it would be a really big brain scum move I could see Farkran doing.

It’s almost definitely just you, though.

Farkran would know (better than I) that Hectic didn't have shit for experience as Mafia. The last thing that scum would do to someone who really didn't have experience as Mafia when that person is a universal townread is start spreading paranoia and encouraging people to look closer at them, that's just a dick move.

And if you're scum here, you need someone to push after me so it's not a great look that you're honestly considering the possibility of Hectic being scum here.

[Nachomamma8]

I don’t really care if I’m lynched in the end because the result will be the same. I’m town. But if I’m town and you’re town, the game gets very dicey - in fact I think we just lose.

Alternative thoughts are Chara is scum or Hectic is scum. Those don’t seem especially likely to me and the reasons they are not scum with Farkran are stronger than yours.

You're right it we both are town then we lose!!!
I don't think that Hectic is scum based on those Farkran interactions + my earlier townread on them. I don't feel that confidence on Chara and am wondering how you got there after floating and sort of feeling that Nacho/Chara team yesterday - what quashed your paranoia?

[Nachomamma8]

i'd want to know when in between Bingle's flip and now you realized that your townread on me was better or that you didn't like Amrun's positioning yesterday or today.

After Bingle flipped, I thought "who flipping scum would surprise me the most?". Hectic was out of the question because Farkran flip, so then I had you/Amrun left. I felt you and Amrun were both levels about Bingle/Farkran in towniness yesterday, but before, don't remember when but probably Day 2, I did remember playing around with Amrun-scum possibility and then breaking it off (she confronted me on considering her and Bingle as a team possibility and the genuineness of that reaction made me out it down) whereas that was never a scum possibility with you. And then I remembered oh yeah, I did have Chara as a higher townread for a minute back there. So I voted Amrun as a "let's start here" type of feeling vote, didn't like the reactions I got, here we are today.

[Nachomamma8]

give me a little credit before you say i need to vote you right now if i'm even considering it.

that's not what I said. I said if you were reading me based on my post-Bingle progressions and if they make sense then you should stop wasting your time and vote me now because there aren't a ton of progressions there and I can't really explain them because Nacho Endgame Mode this game has not been that. I understand why it looks suspicious but it is what it is.

[Nachomamma8]

can't you play an ugly scumgame too? i feel like you're making the point that scum Nacho is better than this, while town Nacho was just wasting time with something that ended up being incorrect.

Scum Nacho isn't better, just more deliberate. What I like about scum is that everything that you do has a purpose - you have control over your body of work, and when you do stick your neck out and do crazier things you are still well aware of the risks that you're taking. Everything else is measured.

As town I can spend a chunk of my time trying to sort someone who is incredibly important to sort and then get absolutely nowhere. That's frustrating. As scum you craft a narrative - maybe people don't buy it and maybe your execution is poor because people can toneread you well and you can't quite hit it like you're supposed to, but you know who you need to kill and who you need to manipulate and you're constantly moving towards it. As town you don't even know whether you're helping your team or fucking them over at any given moment.

[Nachomamma8]

And I don't really know where that rant was going. My actual point was just that my definition of ugly is referencing how scattered my ISO is, how my confidence levels oscillate so drastically where it's hard for anyone to read my ISO and understand where I'm coming from this game. When I am scum, I craft a narrative. So even when I play poorly, people aren't going "what was this guy thinking if he was town???" because poorly =\= sloppy.

[Nachomamma8]

I like Sujimichi's point that Amrun's progression on Farkran is sus - there's not a point that makes sense where it switches from her and thinking he's crazy and town to crazy and scum.

[Nachomamma8]

The reason I prefer Farkran to Chemist is I had an early game townread on chemist and my early game reads tend to be pretty accurate. I’m not afraid to change them but I give them credence.

Like if she was considering Chemist town.... And Farkran town in the posts that Suji was quoting... Who was her scum other than Bingle?

[Nachomamma8]

I mean it also just seems like everyone is only considering me or Amrun. We have two lynches. Is there a reason to delay? Can't we just get to the bloodshed and if someone else is scum then we take the L because there's nothing really pointing to anyone else as scum?

[Amrun]

The reason I prefer Farkran to Chemist is I had an early game townread on chemist and my early game reads tend to be pretty accurate. I’m not afraid to change them but I give them credence.

Like if she was considering Chemist town.... And Farkran town in the posts that Suji was quoting... Who was her scum other than Bingle?

Very clearly in this post, I am saying I prefer Farkran for a lynch.

There have been times when I wavered on Farkran, and that’s ok. That’s fine.

You flat out town cased him so idk what your point is.

[Nachomamma8]

My point is that your reads sort of floated in a world where you had Bingle as a scumread and then everyone else as townreads for the longest, even though you primarily wanted to lynch. When did you start trying to solve the game - what was the point where Farkran/Bingle was your primary solve?

[Amrun]

My point is that your reads sort of floated in a world where you had Bingle as a scumread and then everyone else as townreads for the longest, even though you primarily wanted to lynch. When did you start trying to solve the game - what was the point where Farkran/Bingle was your primary solve?

This question is nonsensical. I had farkran/Bingle as the solve when it was still lurkerasriel/alimdia due to something alimdia did.

My treads floated around a bit as I explored multiple things, of course. I mean for most of the game, despite advocating lynches, had 0-1 scumreads. This is a really dumb angle.

[Hectic]

if Hectic really trusts my judgement, maybe. in terms of ability to do it i probably could. i know i shouldn't be making decisions based on being afraid of taking responsibility.

i'd be surprised if you were a loser
plus i don't see Farkran waving around his anti-SPARE propaganda like that and loserreading you while you had a good chance of being one of the SPAREs at some point

that said, what do you mean "trust my judgement?"
trust that you're town?
or trust lynching Nacho over Amrun today?

[Hectic]

I'd like to run a questionary to everyone.

Say you need to pick exactly one scum in {nacho, amrun, chara and suji}. Who do you pick and why?

I'm not currently interested in theories where there are no scum or more than one scum among those, the premise is that there is exactly one. Let's try it. It's going to be useful.

@Replica, Sherlock, Psyche, can you answer this for me? I'll ask Toriel to prepare cookies if you do

probably amrun. chara is null too though. i just haven't found any towntells in two relatively long isos.

You're still null. Just as Amrun's reaction to the Suji revelation made me more suspicious of her, your going out of your way to act like it doesn't dramatically up the slot's odds of being town is also super dubious. But I always try to overweight the possibility that I MIGHT BE CRAZY I GUESS.

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

While

Nacho

on the other hand was a townlean for Psyche.

[popsofctown]

Temmie Flakes