Mini Normal 2122 | Endgame

[chkflip]

What a fucking joke.

[clidd]

What is a joke ?

[Robbnva]

Probably the replace out

[Garmr]

Guys. Jake has good reads. Imma sheep him for now

This made me chuckle.

[Bingle]

Anyway it’s pointless to talk about. Have to focus on the game. I’m waiting for bingle to do something but I’m still waiting.

Is the premise that I haven’t done anything AI? Cause that would be a load of crap.

[Bingle]

I also want his opinion on the hood logic.

Nero’s post sums it up. For lynching purposes, we should pretty much ignore that there is a hood until late game/a hood player flips scum. Trying to guess whether the hood contains scum without setup info is a fool’s errand. Especially considering I’ve claimed that I need to die before LYLO and RS claimed confirmable role, I’m just not really worried about the hood.

[clidd]

Hum, if we are not going to opt for a lynch among the hood, what is your suggestion for today ?

[Bingle]

VOTE: bob

[Bingle]

Hum, if we are not going to opt for a lynch among the hood, what is your suggestion for today ?

You know I did a reads dump with 4 scumreads like two days ago, right?

[clidd]

No, but thanks for refreshing my memory.

[Bingle]

Also, I don’t think we should lynch outside of the hood, I think we should lynch while ignoring hood status. If Nero is scummy, vote Nero. I’d argue lynching either me or RS early is a bad plan based on the soft claims but that’s really not related to the hood.

[clidd]

I find it interesting that if, theoretically, the statistical logic of 1 scum between players in the hood was correct, our chances would come out of 2/12 to catch both mobsters, and would go immediately to 1/3, this seeing from an isolated point, without considering the expressive influence of reads.

However, I agree that given the unpredictability of the setup, our considerations can change dramatically from one day to the other. So, in this scenario, it would be safer if we opted for a lynch outside that sphere of thought, with the aid of a supporting impression / read.

[clidd]

Yes, it makes sense.

[Nero Cain]

Would anyone like to play fantasy baseball?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=82320

[Bingle]

Neighborhoods come with the operational assumption that there is 0-1 scum. Both ircher and RC (our reviewers) would heavy scumsided multiple scum neighborhoods. Therefore, in a vacuum, our options are lynch in 0-1/3, 2-3/10, or 3/13.

Given the Nash equilibrium values for 0-1 and 2-3 we could determine what the best option for our lynch pool was, but we don’t have that information readily available. Given that the implication in the signup thread is that TSE designed the setup himself and he’s had a history of submitting strange and subversive designs, I don’t have a read to be able to narrow that equilibrium down at all.

If we do hit scum in the hood, that’s positive evidence that all hood players remaining are town, which is an argument for lynching outside of the hood until we can make a more informed decision inside of it.

Tl;dr focusing on the neighborhood early is a trap, which is roughly the stance of RS as far as utilizing it but the opposite of the stance of RS as far as preferred lynch order. Since I don’t really have a read on Nero, I don’t particularly think lynching Nero is a great plan.

[Bingle]

Robb what are your not me reads?

[Nero Cain]

ewww math

[Nero Cain]

What do you think about Rabid though, Bingle?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

team rocket queen has replaced Non Lmh!

[team rocket queen]

hello friends! reading now!

[Bingle]

What do you think about Rabid though, Bingle?

He’s fairly consistent. The fact that he was against discussion of reads in the neighborhood but did so with minimal pushing from kage raised an eyebrow, but he hasn’t really said much there which is minor town points given I believe his stated opinion that neighborhoods are mostly useful for scum to manipulate town (which came across as genuine).

His desire to lynch you and me isn’t surprising, given his beliefs, but is curious in the context of his claim. (His claim of course being that he’ll be confirmed role as of D3, means that if we follow his plan me and Nero will both be dead and the only town controlled deaths barring a vig before that happens.) I could see that as a power move from scum who expects a false clear based on his role or a damage mitigation tool from scum in over his head, but neither seems to fit his approach here perfectly.

For now he’s a weak townread that I’m not interested in re-evaluating until D3.

[Bingle]

hello friends! reading now!

Salut!

[clidd]

Neighborhoods come with the operational assumption that there is 0-1 scum. Both ircher and RC (our reviewers) would heavy scumsided multiple scum neighborhoods. Therefore, in a vacuum, our options are lynch in 0-1/3, 2-3/10, or 3/13.

Given the Nash equilibrium values for 0-1 and 2-3 we could determine what the best option for our lynch pool was, but we don’t have that information readily available. Given that the implication in the signup thread is that TSE designed the setup himself and he’s had a history of submitting strange and subversive designs, I don’t have a read to be able to narrow that equilibrium down at all.

If we do hit scum in the hood, that’s positive evidence that all hood players remaining are town, which is an argument for lynching outside of the hood until we can make a more informed decision inside of it.

Tl;dr focusing on the neighborhood early is a trap, which is roughly the stance of RS as far as utilizing it but the opposite of the stance of RS as far as preferred lynch order. Since I don’t really have a read on Nero, I don’t particularly think lynching Nero is a great plan.

I am concerned now that you mentioned the TSE's history of irregularity, but I believe that, as you mentioned, it will be possible to clarify our doubts as new information appears.

I agree with your strategic vision of the hood, it seems appropriate to a game plan with intelligent use of resources. I also empathize with the fact that Nero is not necessarily a beneficial lynch, but that would depend on how well he manages to emulate discomfort when being considered as one of the lynchs. I'll take a look, later, to see if I get any meta on his profile to answer that.

[Bingle]

Full disclosure: I can’t read Nero worth shit. We’ve played together a lot and we usually have a mutual scumread or nullread.

[Nero Cain]

I had felt like you had gotten fairly good at reading then in CHK's game you were scum reading me early on and I had thought that was weird. perhaps I was thinking of someone else.