So to do VCA, you need to start with an instinct of why scum would behave differently to town given a particular scenario. A VCA that led you to want people off both wagons probably starts with "Scum knew KA was going down, so didn't want to get their hands dirty." That particular thought would seem to suggest Davesaz town, because Dave was the leading wagon before KA. (That wagon peaked at 5 in #2158, and my personal suspicion is that that wagon is all-town). There was also the nomwagon we know was on town, with known scum Titus, sore feet and KK. (I think this is an SF-KK antiassociative; if two scum were on a three-person wagon, likely the third is town unless Boon is part of the scumteam). On the other hand, if Dave is scum, scum had a significant incentive to swing the wagon away from him: that suggests that chk, Michael Scott, or Nancy is a partner. So we can look at Michael's posting, see if his Dave vote looks like an early distance that might have gotten outta hand, or if the move onto KA feels natural.In post 3897, BooneyToonzExpert wrote:That doesn't change my stance that there are scum likely both on and off the wagon. I think POEing those off of the wagon is a more effective place to start. That's why I started with just people off both wagons. I get VCA has it flaws and can be fueled with WIFOM. Buttrying to sort this game on mech right now is just way too much for me right now and doubly so when considering who set this game upIn post 3886, sore feet wrote:what if titus knew she was hammered?In post 3874, BooneyToonzExpert wrote:I'd say there is probably scum both on and off the wagon. Titus tried to self hammer which makes me think there is also scum off the wagon.
That's why I keep coming back.
Then with Titus, to suggest that scum would be predominantly off-wagon (you also suggest scum are both on and off, which feels somewhat contradictory to the desire to start off-wagon, but hey, let's be charitable and imagine you're thinking something like four total scum, with two partners off and one partner on). But the thing is, Titus seemed to be more obviously going down than KA. If you're scum, you don't have incentive to stay off unless you were hard defending Titus and can't sell the switch, or you think there's a chance of saving her. So I'd expect early bussing. Who might that be? Michael Scott, Chkflip, Chronos, or Venus and Mars.
Not only do you decide to go off-wagon without giving a decent justification, your list conspicuously omits the scummy Sore Feet on your "Lynch before Dave" list. So yeah, I'm getting associatives off this.
