Mini 2131: Furret's Bizzare Adventure Part 2 (over)

[chennisden]

i think this has told me what i need to know.

[Chemist1422]

i think this has told me what i need to know.

care to share with the class

[chennisden]

chemist where's your head at today

not here that's for sure

Gobble/Titus town
holding off on reading mena until all the bid info gets outed
last three go Bingle > you > ginngie

this feels like a pretty survivalistic order

[gobbledygook]

Chemist and Chennisden trying to distance from one another I’d imagine

[chennisden]

i mean if you want to lose the game by refusing to reconsider you do you.

[gobbledygook]

I have reconsidered multiple times. I have reached the same conclusion as you with Chemist. So how does that mean I’m going to lose?

[chennisden]

because i'm not scum?

[gobbledygook]

If we lynch chemist and we are right we can mislynch you and it will be ok

[chennisden]

I mean

If I get lynched today tomorrow is LyLo and no offense but I do not trust y'all to not mess it up there

this is pretty fitting for my take on that

[chennisden]

i mean, fine. if we lynch chemist today dayvig is not a problem and hopefully we're right there.

but i really think a) there's a deepwolf and b) you guys are not going to lynch them

[gobbledygook]

Who do you think the Deepwolf is?
I could make the argument that everyone alive could be a deep wolf.

[chennisden]

hot take: if there's a deepwolf it's titus

[chennisden]

Who do you think the Deepwolf is?
I could make the argument that everyone alive could be a deep wolf.

no, because half of the slots (myself, menalque, chemist, bingle) are objectively "shallow"

[Bingle]

God I hate blitz games. I blame Pine.

[Bingle]

hot take: if there's a deepwolf it's titus

Pretty lukewarm take, imo. Titus scum is very possible.

[chennisden]

48 hrs sucks yeah

[chennisden]

hot take: if there's a deepwolf it's titus

Pretty lukewarm take, imo. Titus scum is very possible.

woah

my faith in our chances has returned

[gobbledygook]

Well then talk to me about that. She is the weakest of my townreads

[chennisden]

a big wallpost about this will be coming soon. but i'll lay out an outline of my thoughts

titus has been

1) deflecting concerns about today's auction house (& being deflective in general)
2) nonexistent/weird trajectories on slots that make no sense as town (but strategically do for scum)
3) gamestate. do you really think we'd be

here

if scum wasn't controlling the gamestate in some way

[Ginngie]

I'm liking Maria's posts for no specific reason, or at least not one that I can pinpoint

This with combined yesterday of not voting until a CW appeared for Maria wagon.

Makes me sus af to start the day with

This is more likely to be true if her CW was also her partner. Otherwise, why not vote the CW?

The vote counts were highly volitile so I'll try to make it parsable

Vote count 1.9 post 850

MariaR ---------- 5 ( Gobbledygook, Titus, PenguinPower, Datisi, Pink Ball )
Gobbledygook ---- 2 ( MariaR, Gamma Emerald )
Pink Ball ------- 2 ( Bingle, Alyssa the Lamb, )

---

Chemist yet to vote, and then the two options at this point are PB and turkey, he then puts his vote on PB. That's first CW to maria train.

He also said he townread Pine and he isn't a player to make wild turnarounds. so in the next 50 pages when that wagon formed, he couldn't switch over without it being sus.

once the PB wagon died, and he was alone on that. Once he saw another player make a good case that wasn't on maria, he latched right on. Mind you he never once talked to lamb the whole game.

No reason to townread your partner and sheep other peoples cases and vote those you have no opinion on.

There is still this

[Ginngie]

Pink Ball ------- 5 ( Pine, Bingle, Pink Ball, Alyssa the Lamb, Chemist1422 )

lmao look at that Bingle/Chemist/Chenn

[gobbledygook]

VOTE: Chemist

I thought I was here already.

[chennisden]

1) Titus has been hiding from and deflecting all concerns about today's auction house.
2) Similarly, she has been playing a very deflective game the entire game.
3) Complete reversal on my slot that really has

no

explanation if she's town and perfect explanation if she's scum. There's no way town does this.
4) The gamestate

feels

under control by scum. I really doubt "surface level" slots that were very much "on the table" yesterday contains

both

scum.

1) Deflection on auction house

I

strongly believe

that we should lynch whoever gets the dayvig especially because if we just

let it

go to scum we're fucked

Allowing the dayvig to exist has much more harm than benefit and it's frankly surprising nobody else has seen this yet.

That's the position I expect scum to take.

If

scum sniped the auction detective for greater than 300 and scum sniped the cop (known), then the dayvig winner is conftown.

I was going to leave a snarky comment that said "see bold, no further comment required" but there's actually a lot wrong with this post

Titus is acting like the

reason

she put dayvig up is to conftown somebody (whoever gets it). But here's the thing:

said (potential) conftown would be based on the 500 bid, not the fact the item is dayvig.

Why would you let scum know

exactly

what bid to obscure?

Also, you absolutely

do not

address a concern in good faith by saying "but I don't like your opinion so you're scum."

2) Deflection & pandering in general

In response to Datisi's concern Menalque is scum, Titus says

Y'all are electing scum but ok

Then Menalque will have to put in good suggestions or be highly suspect. It's not worth worrying about the alignment of the day 1 of the shopkeeper, just their competence. I know he can setup spec and know who would be good with each role.

bad reads

Pedit: ehhhh
I am kinda more worried about the psychological effect putting him in the ~high position~ will have if he's scum than the actual mechanical outcomes of it frankly

Ppedit: cool, and same

Noted. I don't care much for MS authority, particularly males who act holier than though. Menalque gets no special favors.

Now, why did you tunnel on him so early? Why not sit back, scum hunt, and let him show you who his partners are?

None of this addresses the concern "Hey, what if we accidentally give someone we know to be a competent scumplayer and

could be scum

control of the gamestate?" Especially the first point: if he was scum his job would literally be to screw over town without being suspect. This is much easier than it sounds (literally you can just say "oops bad RNG" and you can't really question that.)

"Instead of pressuring scum why not 'scumhunt' instead" is also kind of funny.

This has nothing to do with the game but I'd appreciate if sentiments like these

particularly males who act holier than though

would stop popping up.

Noted. I don't care much for MS authority, particularly males who act holier than though. Menalque gets no special favors.

Now, why did you tunnel on him so early? Why not sit back, scum hunt, and let him show you who his partners are?

I genuinely have no clue what that means but alrighty

The longer i wait, potentially more ~thread control~ he gets. And I am not very good at convincing people. I'd rather start early.

Plus, I was curious on his reactions to all this.

Thread control isn't a thing though. I thought it was when I was newer too. People synergize with their townreads, thus creating thread control. Getting the best out of people and being humble that you can be wrong is thread control. With that, you can protect your town core for awhile.

Titus v Alisae is an excellent primer. I was a town treestump. I expected my reads to be wrong because I expected people to fuck with me. So I deliberately picked masons with the opposite skillset and built town outward from them.

Yes, but... this completely ignores the fact scum can use this process to their advantage. Bonus points for scum if they look like town "protecting" their "towncore."

3) Weird trajectories

Mostly with respect to my slot. She starts out by townreading me

So you think Gamma town is a bad take?

Gamma, Gobble, Alyssa, and Chennis are all probably town.

I want to lynch in Melanque, Chemist (solely bc yesterday), and Gingie.

and immediately starts scumreading me when my positions do not align with her agenda.

the daykill disappearing is much better than it going to scum's hands.

(Keep in mind she has made no mention of my slot or attempt to sort it between these two posts.)

Scum are out of money and lacking a hitman so...we're in a good position.

Now you might think that it's because of the flips. Of course flips would change her mind right? But nope,

I would actively like people to post more and make clearer what their stances are and think I’ve been both clear and consistent on that point

I just don’t want them to vote anyone other than you and I don’t want anyone who is voting you to move their vote

Dude, I have no interest in Alyssa today and I have no interest in talking to someone who isn't listening.

VOTE: Pine

Gamma likely isn't scum bc 1.12.

Then why are you FoSing me for not doing a thing I CLEARLY did?

I'm not. You claimed today. I just never saw day 2. That's all I am saying.

I have you as town based on vc 1.12.

In fact, it feels like she

knew

their alignments beforehand. No questioning, no attempt to shake up her perception of the game, no nothing. Just what's convenient for her agenda.

Also, Titus was lukewarmly defending the clear lynchee of the day without actually doing anything to get the lynch off of her. In fact this whole "Bingle counterwagon" thing felt like setting up the wagon for

tomorrow, not today

. These kind of trajectories are too convenient for scum and too implausible to be town.

4) Gamestate

I really doubt it's possible the game got to this point without scum taking control of the gamestate when town started to recover. Gamestate for her was good yesterday so she did nothing. She picked the options she did to control today's gamestate. (Notice how stifled we are when it comes to the one thing we really

need to be

doing: actually reading people.)

Miscellaneous comments:

I will not support a Market Leader who will deny me my dayvig.

I wouldn't deny you a day vig. You'd be one of my favorites if it appeared to get it. I just a) don't want a role that people would be bidding against each other on as town gets more PRs that way and b) I'd want a clear setup to get the maximum use out of the dayvig.

Still, I left clear instructions on what to do with the dayvig. (I'm kinda shocked I'm this far TRed but preparing for my death anyway.)

Saying "oh I'm gonna probably die and I'm universally townread but we're not going to question why I'm alive

three days later

" is often a scum move. I would know.

Also, this serious response to a joke post is kind of entirely out of left field and I really don't think town would respond to Penguin's post like this if she mistook it as serious?

am good with setup spec but I don't have strong enough reads to be a marketplace leader yet.

Why do you/does anyone need strong reads to be an auction owner

Being the most effective shopkeeper owner involves identifying town and placing the best items for them in the market. People play differently.

did not love this post. mafia is too far volatile a game for you to be planning who gets what PR.

Elect:Titus

Thanks but I don't want it today unless forced to step up. Too many unknown personalities.

There are a lot of possible reasons people don't want to

mechanically

step into the "town leader role." But a big one is

scum being afraid to stand out too much

: here you have a seemingly widely townread person who is making tremendous progress to solving the game and they're not dead... because?

Her play feels very much like she's thinking about this idea. In fact I don't even think it's entirely an accident that

She is the weakest of my townreads

and

Titus scum is very possible.

are common(ish) sentiments.

Especially

when all of her deflective play is literally designed to attract minimal scrutiny to her slot.

Then why are you FoSing me for not doing a thing I CLEARLY did?

I'm not. You claimed today. I just never saw day 2. That's all I am saying.

I have you as town based on vc 1.12.

This shallow attempt at pretending to do VCA is not what Titus would do as town. In a math test the (rough) standard for getting points on a question is if what you wrote could feasibly be written by another student who didn't do the problem. In Mafia the (rough) standard for getting (town)points for a scumhunting attempt is if what you wrote could feasibly be written by scum who didn't actually scumhunt in good faith. (Hint: scum can't scumhunt in good faith)

Completely unrelated, though - for whichever lovely soul is reading this, I have you as town based on vc 4.1.

Conclusion

Titus is a wolf slot who got to the status of "town bucket" by pandering to slots and has held onto this position by deflecting and shutting down any meaningful scrutiny about her slot. The clusterfuck that was yesterday was good for scum because it ensured that scum had meaningful control of the mobility of slots within the "buckets" (town & not-town) while ensuring no external movement from bucket to bucket occurred. This keeps the deepwolf safe and allows the shallowwolf to survive and cause chaos. To keep this delicate balance, we see her refuse to poke let alone shake the gamestate for pretty much the entirety of Day 3. We see her today fail to engage in good faith because

scum can't engage in good faith

.

Oh and let's not forget her blatantly misrepping here

hey remember that time alyssa let herself get lynched so people would pay attention to her reads then everyone ignored her reads

does anyone even have a reason for me being scum that isn't just that I haven't died yet when I should have

this feels survivalistic in a bad way.

like i would've expected town to act differently, rather than seem resigned then go to "hey look at this shouldn't i live" at the drop of a hat

Town can realize they should not be in lylo.

Tell me why you aren't scum with Gingie.

and pretending it didn't happen immediately afterwards.

[chennisden]

Thank god it submitted properly

[Alisae]

VOTE COUNT 4 . 3

• Chemist1422
  ----- 1 ( Gobbledygook )
  
  chennisden
  ------ 0 ( No One )
  
  Menalque
  -------- 0 ( No One )
  
  Gobbledygook
  ---- 0 ( No One )
  
  Titus
  ----------- 0 ( No One )
  
  Bingle
  ---------- 0 ( No One )
  
  Ginngie
  --------- 0 ( No One )
  
  
  No Lynch
  -------- 1 ( Ginngie )
  
  
  
  Not Voting
  ------ 5 ( chennisden, Menalque, Titus, Bingle, Ginngie, Chemist1422 )

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-04-13 19:00:00)