Mini Normal 2130: Mafia From Home [Game Over]

[Churros]

Oh, funny thing I had forgotten about Egix while mulling over my reads. I'm glad he claimed friendly neighbour, I didn't think he was particularly scum though. Maybe I'm in the right track I guess?

[Zantetsu]

@Zantetsu
What you're saying now sounds a whole lot better than what you've said initially. So i think it's time to take a step back and find out just what in the heck is going on in this game.
UNVOTE:

Well to be fair I had been blindsided by a fake claim and then had to puzzle through a role claim from Una that just did not compute beyond mod error, and bad modding by itself normally kind of triggers me.

Anyway, after thinking for some time I realized that there really is not much that town can do beyond lynch me, but at least that's a 1:1 trade and VT for scum is a good trade so it's not a bad outcome. On the off chance that BM was just going rogue and playing badly this could be a good thing actually. I wish town could take the leap of faith to trust me but I understand why this is highly unlikely.

My biggest concern is that scum most likely has a plan and I haven't read really anything yet that suggests that anyone has any idea of how to address that.

pedit:

Battle Mage unvotes me because he needs to catch up and post final thoughts, then doesn't even bother to do that before re-voting. I can't believe I'm going to get lynched because of this moron ... sigh.

[Zantetsu]

scum!BM might actually make that gambit IF he felt like Luca was going to definitely be the lynch today, and Luca is their roleblocker.
That would fit with Zantetsu realizing my potential role (although it was wrong ) and me still not being roleblocked/killed.

I like this theory because it makes the world right again and nobody has to be an idiot. If it's true then I owe the mod an apology for assuming that they made a mistake ...

[Battle Mage]

@Zantetsu
What you're saying now sounds a whole lot better than what you've said initially. So i think it's time to take a step back and find out just what in the heck is going on in this game.
UNVOTE:

Well to be fair I had been blindsided by a fake claim and then had to puzzle through a role claim from Una that just did not compute beyond mod error, and bad modding by itself normally kind of triggers me.

Anyway, after thinking for some time I realized that there really is not much that town can do beyond lynch me, but at least that's a 1:1 trade and VT for scum is a good trade so it's not a bad outcome. On the off chance that BM was just going rogue and playing badly this could be a good thing actually. I wish town could take the leap of faith to trust me but I understand why this is highly unlikely.

My biggest concern is that scum most likely has a plan and I haven't read really anything yet that suggests that anyone has any idea of how to address that.

pedit:

Battle Mage unvotes me because he needs to catch up and post final thoughts, then doesn't even bother to do that before re-voting. I can't believe I'm going to get lynched

because of this moron

... sigh.

What a lovely speech, but again belied by the lack of class at the end. You only have yourself to blame - if you hadn't been so conspicuously scummy on Day 1, I wouldn't have investigated you last night.

[Churros]

Ok, we've 11 days. No reason to rush this.

BP I want you to ask Firebringer if a hypothetical mafia goon with only access to the scum PT would give your PT cop shot a "positive" result. If the answer is yes there's no way it can be a mod error and zantetsu flipping anything but red should make you conf!scum. See'ing Zantetsu's reaction to the guilty, I think he is probably indeed the scum but I'm gonna ask you do the proper procedure just in case. Better safe than sorry.

Egix claiming Friendly Neighbour and showing some intent to target me probably makes him town. I don't think scum!Egix is that crafty and as I know as a fact I'm town, there's no way that scum!Egix fakeclaiming would be comfortable with targeting me instead of a scum buddy to confirm him. I could be wrong but I don't think I'm. Norwegian I need your help in this one since I skipped a lot of posts before, when Egix claimed FN, what was the game climate? I can only see scum!Egix fakeclaiming FN if he was close to being lynched. It would be helpful to know the circumstances of the claim.

[Battle Mage]

who is BP?

[Churros]

Saudade death, and the early wagons being Anotora initiated by Looker and a counterwagon on Looker by Zant/Luca in my opinion points to two universes:

1) Saudade was a frame-kill to make Anotora the today lynch, there's plenty of reason to believe this can be the universe we're in.

2) Anotora is in fact scum and the quick wagon on profi after Una backed down was to prevent Anotora lynch, just as Saudade was a fear-kill.

From now on I'm gonna be considering Zantetsu scum because it doesn't make much sense for me to consider it otherwise. We're going to clean any room for error in BM's guilty and if he ever fakeclaimed, he is getting lynched tomorrow. Another reason why I believe his claim right now.

[Churros]

who is BP?

It's you. I always confuse.

[Zantetsu]

See'ing Zantetsu's reaction to the guilty, I think he is probably indeed the scum but I'm gonna ask you do the proper procedure just in case. Better safe than sorry.

There is literally

no reaction

I could have had that you would not be saying made me look guilty. The scummier thing would have been to fake some claim to try to keep myself alive.

[Zantetsu]

who is BP?

He's been calling you that for days. Did you really just notice? So other posts of his didn't warrant close enough scrutiny to even see that?

[Zantetsu]

OK I'm done now. I am irritated by what BM has done but I think I have to get my emotions in check because my pointing out every scummy thing BM has done is not going to change the outcome and is just noise at this point. I am so annoyed though. Urgh.

[Churros]

Some reads from my head:

1) Riabi saying for us to take our time today after the guilty in Zantetsu, means he might likely not be a Zantetsu partner. When your buddy is guilted I don't think you have any reason to focus on every slot posting rather than just trying to distance yourself. I can be wrong on this if Riabi is one of the most anti-bus and delusional scum I've ever seen, because he would be:

- Flip-flopping on a GUILTED partner

- low-key hoping his guilted partner would somehow make it out alive today

I don't think that's likely to be fair...

Riabi is probably town as long as Zantetsu is scum. If Zantetsu is town this can be a red flag.

[Luca Blight]

See'ing Zantetsu's reaction to the guilty, I think he is probably indeed the scum but I'm gonna ask you do the proper procedure just in case. Better safe than sorry.

There is literally

no reaction

I could have had that you would not be saying made me look guilty. The scummier thing would have been to fake some claim to try to keep myself alive.

This is true tbf.

I sympathize with you here because you’ve played well (assuming you’re scum), and your reaction to the claim even seemed quite sincere.

[Battle Mage]

See'ing Zantetsu's reaction to the guilty, I think he is probably indeed the scum but I'm gonna ask you do the proper procedure just in case. Better safe than sorry.

There is literally

no reaction

I could have had that you would not be saying made me look guilty. The scummier thing would have been to fake some claim to try to keep myself alive.

This is true tbf.

I sympathize with you here because you’ve played well (assuming you’re scum), and your reaction to the claim even seemed quite sincere.

Yeah, his defence of "BM is town fake-claiming" was a really strong play.

[Churros]

I'm also minorly town reading Una.

I think her fakeclaim would be really genius if she's scum, because I imagine that if she was scum, she would be planning to retract it from the start. I'm a bit skeptical of such a weird role, but for now I see no reason to focus on that slot.

My townblock is probably [Norwegian, Egix, Riabi, Una] here.

I'm not that opposed to a massclaim now to be fair. I think our biggest powers are already out, and if I was scum I would be very happy to have more time to come up with a good fakeclaim later, rather than now. But I'm not gonna push it because it sounds like a headache.

[Luca Blight]

@Mage: What should he have done instead?

As Zant said, nothing would have made him look not scummy in that situation, but I thought he did a decent job anyway.

[Churros]

I kind of tell myself I should put Una there in the back of my mind, but screw this I'm playing casually. No overthinking. Big kudos if Una is scum, I can only see myself or FL doing that weird-ass claim as scum right now and if I end up discovering there's more of us out there it's gonna be funny.

[Churros]

I kind of tell myself I shouldn't put Una there*

correcting

[Luca Blight]

That’s actually a good point there, Churros.

Me and 72 don’t have day chat, so possibly scum don’t have either? We should probably mass-claim now so they have less time to confer.

Why do you townread Riabi btw?

[Luca Blight]

Just seen your point regarding Riabi above so nvm

[Churros]

Anyway yesterday I said that Anotora/BM/Looker/Zantetsu couldn't be all-town.

It seems like either BM or Zantetsu is conf!scum.

My mind next is on understanding Anotora slot and Saudade NK. Fear-kill? Frame-kill? That would be very telling.

We've so far claimed:

Simple Neapolitan Doctor, which in my understanding can't protect the PRs, what makes a lot of sense in a setup spec because it makes impossible to do the "follow the cop strategy" with BM the supposedly PT-cop. This is both good/logical setup design and, in case of scum!Una, absolutely genius play that is sadly not recognized, because she would be able to kill the PRs even claiming doctor. Anyway, in a reasonable universe this just means both town!BM and town!Una, where my mind is at.

Friendly Neighbour is a ok role which give us an extra innocent.

Neighbours [Luca/72]. This makes even more sense for BM claim being true. The neighbours are the classic false positive for the PT cop, and you can view it another way as well: It makes one of them godfather if scum, because it means they have a reasonable explanation for the positive from the investigative.

I wouldn't normally jump to the conclusion that one of them is scum, but it's already what my PoE hints at so right now I think yes, it's 3 scum, and one of them is investigative-immune for being the neighbour. Another good/logical setup design in my opinion.

[Luca Blight]

I really disagree with your point about Riabi, because by the same reasoning 72 is also town if Zant scum and I really don't believe that both him and Riabi are town.

Zant kept fighting after the result, so I think it's unlikely his partners would throw in the towel immediately. To lynch Mage first would be a coup for them, and could be explained away later through wifom.

[Churros]

I hadn't seen 72 posts about Zant but I've seen them and put it into the trash pile. I don't put any stake on 72 scum or town play quality. I think it could go either way.

It doesn't have the same tone as Riabi either. Riabi isn't trying to push a lynch from the get-go like 72, he's trying to calmly understand the gamestate. I think it's town and I don't really care about what other people think with all due respect...

[Churros]

Lunch break is almost ending and I thought about giving this game some love because I've been lurking the hardest here I think.

Anyway, let's count because I often forget some players:

Looker
Riabi
NorwegianboyEE
Churros
Luca Blight
Battle Mage
72offsuit
Zantetsu
Anotora
UnaBombaH
Egix96
---------------

I view it as:

[Churros]
[Norwegian, BM, Egix]
[Una, Riabi]
- null -
[Luca, 72, Looker, Anotora]
[Zantetsu]

Is that everyone? I guess it is.

To me it means that Zantetsu partners is in the bracket right above him but I don't think that Luca/72 can be both scum, while I've good reasons to believe that in a 3-scum game, one of them would be investigative-immune, therefore:

As long as Zantetsu is scum,

One scum in [72/Luca]

One scum in [Looker/Anotora]

I guess that's it for this game. The claimed roles all have synergy and unless for extra-gambity scum, it's too early for fakeclaims like what happened. I think Una would have better moments to fakeclaim as scum.

I really think it may be as simple as that, and it all makes sense considering where my mind was at yesterday.

[Churros]

I could see a weird universe where both Looker/Anotora are town but I don't know, I think one scum being in the neighbours make more sense.

I could try to pinpoint even more the partners/duo with some "IF", but I'm afraid of getting it wrong in that last step, while it's not super necessary to restrict even more the lynch pool.