Doubles Mafia Day 2/ Day 2

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Auro

[farside]

i read page 99

farside has a complicated avatar and is brutal completely roasted Baezu there - probably town

Sorry, I picked it from a few choice of a farside comic.

I caught up and had on question.

@TH: Did Mastina breakdown make sense? If so why, she wasn't being pushed at the time she voted and she read as though she was constantly just battling a 10 page caught up.
What I'm saying in regards to her change that bothers me the most is that she didn't interact with players to really change the vote when she did. She was in caught up when she gave up her read and hammered jjh.
Can you explain it more then just meta reasoning.

[farside]

VOTE: Auro

auro is not in the game and you can't vote for anyone on the halloween side of the game.
Sad to see some players haven't changed over the years.

[Trojan Horses]

i read page 99

farside has a complicated avatar and is brutal completely roasted Baezu there - probably town

Sorry, I picked it from a few choice of a farside comic.

I caught up and had on question.

@TH: Did Mastina breakdown make sense? If so why, she wasn't being pushed at the time she voted and she read as though she was constantly just battling a 10 page caught up.
What I'm saying in regards to her change that bothers me the most is that she didn't interact with players to really change the vote when she did. She was in caught up when she gave up her read and hammered jjh.
Can you explain it more then just meta reasoning.

I haven’t fully read all that, so I’ll get Auro to explain. I apologize for saying I didn’t tr you earlier, this post is super townie.

~N

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Auro

auro is not in the game and you can't vote for anyone on the halloween side of the game.
Sad to see some players haven't changed over the years.

Jealous

[BBmolla]

VOTE: mastina

ez game

[Trojan Horses]

@TH: Did Mastina breakdown make sense? If so why, she wasn't being pushed at the time she voted and she read as though she was constantly just battling a 10 page caught up.
What I'm saying in regards to her change that bothers me the most is that she didn't interact with players to really change the vote when she did. She was in caught up when she gave up her read and hammered jjh.
Can you explain it more then just meta reasoning.

I would start with saying it wasn't a

breakdown

to begin with! Note that I'm assuming she genuinely didn't know jjh was at L-1. If she did, then this argument doesn't matter because she's scum for quickhammering anyway. She was 200 posts away from the latest post, and wasn't caught up.

I would say that the reasons she had with players that caused her to change votes was a combination of people not listening to her NSG push and voting NSG, a stale early-game townread that she knew wasn't reliable, seeing a wagon forming there, and jjh's continual prodging and promises (one of which was quoted in her vote post) being the last straw. It doesn't look like it came from a place of survivalism.

If it

wasn't

a hammer, and just the third vote on jjh or something, would you have the same question?

An interesting note is that SirCakez also didn't believe jjh was close to hammer. Some of the early votes on jjh were made long ago by lurkbutts like Wonderwall. Perhaps it's also interesting that BBMolla immediately asked if it was a hammer.

jjh isn't close to being hammered

Also, while I was looking back, it seems like only two players have been doing the Mastina discredits a lot this game, and somehow that felt like thread sentiment. Hm.

-Stuxnet

[Eve]

@Eve who did you investigate last night?

no one?

[Trojan Horses]

Farside, I also have a question: When you cast your L-1 vote on jjh, did you know it was putting him at L-1?
If so, why didn't you announce it? I'm sure announcing at L-1 was a part of meta in the old days, too, right?
How many votes did you think he had then?

-Stuxnet

[farside]

@TH: Did Mastina breakdown make sense? If so why, she wasn't being pushed at the time she voted and she read as though she was constantly just battling a 10 page caught up.
What I'm saying in regards to her change that bothers me the most is that she didn't interact with players to really change the vote when she did. She was in caught up when she gave up her read and hammered jjh.
Can you explain it more then just meta reasoning.

I would start with saying it wasn't a

breakdown

to begin with! Note that I'm assuming she genuinely didn't know jjh was at L-1. If she did, then this argument doesn't matter because she's scum for quickhammering anyway. She was 200 posts away from the latest post, and wasn't caught up.

I would say that the reasons she had with players that caused her to change votes was a combination of people not listening to her NSG push and voting NSG, a stale early-game townread that she knew wasn't reliable, seeing a wagon forming there, and jjh's continual prodging and promises (one of which was quoted in her vote post) being the last straw. It doesn't look like it came from a place of survivalism.

If it

wasn't

a hammer, and just the third vote on jjh or something, would you have the same question?

An interesting note is that SirCakez also didn't believe jjh was close to hammer. Some of the early votes on jjh were made long ago by lurkbutts like Wonderwall. Perhaps it's also interesting that BBMolla immediately asked if it was a hammer.

jjh isn't close to being hammered

Also, while I was looking back, it seems like only two players have been doing the Mastina discredits a lot this game, and somehow that felt like thread sentiment. Hm.

-Stuxnet

It wasn't just her hammering the vote. She was in constant catch up mode and changed votes before really interacting with a player....other then rc.
At the time i voted i didn't know i put jjh at l-1, hence my unvote.

[farside]

Farside, I also have a question: When you cast your L-1 vote on jjh, did you know it was putting him at L-1?
If so, why didn't you announce it? I'm sure announcing at L-1 was a part of meta in the old days, too, right?
How many votes did you think he had then?

-Stuxnet

I thought i was the 3rd vote on jjh and mastin was the 4th vote.

[Trojan Horses]

It wasn't just her hammering the vote. She was in constant catch up mode and changed votes before really interacting with a player....other then rc.

Well, if you were in her spot and all you saw from jjh was "I'm gonna play soon", "I can't read", "Ok a few more hours" etc, what sorta interactions would you expect they would engage with?
Also, yeah - even she misjudged jjh as having 2-3 votes, so I guess you could probably empathize?
I don't think voting during a catchup is scum indicative, really. Prolly can pull out a bunch of instances from previous play of hers where she votes while catching up, or votes without engaging with a slot directly, etc.

Any comments on Sushi?

-Stuxnet

[Vecna]

I figured out Almost50 from the Not_Mafia interactions

Can you explain this for me?

Also really interested in this......

[Trojan Horses]

I figured out Almost50 from the Not_Mafia interactions

Can you explain this for me?

Also really interested in this......

I made a post where I said I policy never-vote Not_Mafia and underlined something, both incidentally parts of how Almost50 plays
Nothing more to it.

-Stuxnet

[farside]

It wasn't just her hammering the vote. She was in constant catch up mode and changed votes before really interacting with a player....other then rc.

Well, if you were in her spot and all you saw from jjh was "I'm gonna play soon", "I can't read", "Ok a few more hours" etc, what sorta interactions would you expect they would engage with?
Also, yeah - even she misjudged jjh as having 2-3 votes, so I guess you could probably empathize?
I don't think voting during a catchup is scum indicative, really. Prolly can pull out a bunch of instances from previous play of hers where she votes while catching up, or votes without engaging with a slot directly, etc.

Any comments on Sushi?

-Stuxnet

Thats fair. I usually paid more attention to what the votes were.
I have a slight scum read on sushi. I was going to go back through this game and check a few things.
I just had a note that i was changing my read on baezu and i was wondering why rc claimed.
Also i had a question about the motion dector roll.

Verna: can you use your ability only during your night phase? Can you use it for either Halloween or x-mas?

[Trojan Horses]

RC was 99% fake claiming just to get a Vecna lynch through.

-Stuxnet

[Vecna]

vecna

olive branch?

come with me to paradise and lynch lie ren ty

Im very close to it but want to give the slot a wee little bit more time to catch up to be certain. That acceptable to you? This also allows the rest of the replacements to settle in and do stuff as well. Id really like us to get to a stable gamestate with a bit more of a solve. Not a lot of time mind you.

As for my own reasoning to add a few more points to the discussion:

The preceding catchup posts from Lie ren:

-Question people over attacking me for my slot salvaging comment.

-Wants to see SirCakez reaction to me calling out the buzzwords.

-Then sees I was scumreading the slot a long time back.

Suddenly likes the Sircakez reasoning for scumreading me. 50% of that reasoning was my entrance. The other half was his comment about "long catchup walls are usually scummy". Two arguments here. GE has played with me a lot. He knows I always do long catchup walls when I replace in (unless the game really is astronomically long, but that happened like once). Second argument, Ive seen Gamma Emerald do long catchup walls as well. Heck he's doing them himself to some extent.

So what where you agreeing with in the SirCakez logic? And did you like his "I use buzzwords to reply faster?" Because that shows very little actual engagement with what you were apparently interested in before.

[Vecna]

ur so lazy gamma

and when your lazy you are scum, shame

No I really am not. I have had effortful scum games and effortless town games. Don’t make me have to pull up examples of this for what might be this first time in over a year.

Yeah, lets not go there. I can confirm -this- to be true at least. Catch him in the genuineness of what he does post (which to be fair, aint great, but im not 100% there yet to call it scum).

[Vecna]

ok but tbh why does rc care about nsg's read on you nancy

ur nancy and its rc, his reads on you should be like a divining rod

He claimed himself he had a lot of faith in those reads from NSG.

...yeah, I also didnt believe shit from that comment and it felt like he just wanted me to insult NSG to get more people to turn against me.

[Trojan Horses]

...yeah, I also didnt believe shit from that comment and it felt like he just wanted me to insult NSG to get more people to turn against me.

NSG you're a brilliant player but you don't understand how actions develop gamestates

He was already in the process of discrediting her

-Stuxnet

[Vecna]

Just the fact Vecna has disappeared since RC, his main pusher, was replaced out is suspicious

Lmao, wtf? I was the only one posting for a long time just like 10h before this post.

I live in a different timezone. Youre really gonna be surprised im "disappearing" while its between midnight and 8am where I live?

fucking hell youre desperate to lynch me

[farside]

RC was 99% fake claiming just to get a Vecna lynch through.

-Stuxnet

Place holder.
I have a few things i want to say but it is dependent on rc's alignment and not necessary for now.

[Vecna]

Ok, im going to make my post describing in full what I think is happening this game. Youre all gonna call it Titus-levels of moonlogic, but stick with me please. I have some reasoning behind it, and some past "evidence" and experience that might back it up.


The premise of this episode of conspiracy theories is this:

Spoiler:

Nope, sorry, youre gonna have to actually read this giant shitpost sounding thing

A smart scumteam would realize that to win this game, you need to crush one side and dominate the other side. If you setup in such a way that one side of your scumteam pushes the other side to lynch one of your partners, itll make you look good and like the town leaders. This will set you up to win that side by controlling town actions. You make the designated bus target HARD PUSH the two scum members on the side that are meant to dominate. Youre not going to dominate both sides as scum, and you want to refrain from having a scum member in danger of a lynch on both sides. So you divide and conquer. Its a simple logical and strategic conclusion. After giving this some thought, Id predict any of our potential scum suspects could come up with this plan and would try to execute it after some internal discussion. Disclaimer: this theory is fully dependent on scum day chat.

So lets put the pieces in place. What have we had happen so far this game? Mastina has been playing really scummy this game. Like, truely, impressively scummy. Her initial shit was just wtf levels of scummy. It would almost fit her normal town-game how bad her reads were. The only thing she kept parroting was * SQUAAAAWK RC IS SCUM SQUAAAAWK *. But then, after a while, her posts suddenly started making sense to me. Like, she started talking to me with a purpose, a goal, and some clear-mindedness that is probably easy to miss if it is not directed at you. All the shit felt sensible to me. I could see all the things she pointed out make sense. Her claims that RC was manipulative early game were not true. He wasnt back then. Theres a reason everyone townreads him. He was pretty towny. But when I started talking about my Ren lie and Shuichi scumread he suddenly made a turn and started focussing a shitload of attention on me. Mastina started addressing me after this as well with her weird directed communication. Shortly after this she lol-hammered JJH. Completely uncharacterismatic as well, even for her as scum.

Im sure by now you can see the signals on the wall. Mastina has been designated as the fall guy. To make the other side look good. She saw she could even get a free mislynch on JJH, so obviously she took it, because it would ensure town would mislynch her the next day guaranteed - which was exactly the plan. Well, maybe she wasnt even on board with it, but RC has a way of making these plans even with unwilling volunteers as teammates. Regardless, the plan needed to be sold. RC normally isnt so aggresive and constantly hostile unless you really push him. We all witnessed the drama between Mastina and RC. They even went too far because they probably have drama in their scumchat going on, emotions got high. The mastina communication towards me had two intentions. Both to make RC and the teammate look good, and to make me look bad after she would be lynched and flip scum.

I present evidence part 1: viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76395
Cliff notes of this game: RC and Mathblade, both scum, bus eachother from the get go. This game was toxic on another level as well. Constant insults between them, even though they were teammates. Mathblade did not want to get bussed, but tough luck.

This is how players like Mastina and RC play as scum. They look at the setup, formulate a plan to victory, and take the steps needed to get there. They know how their actions will influence people. He said so himself several times this game.

Mastina claimed everyone on halloween was obv-town iirc. He just pointed to the two scum in RC and Shuichi (need to go back and read if this is actually true).

RC was laid back towards everyone, except Mastina. The intended patsy. Who needed to be destroyed in order for him to look good. Shuichi is also scumreading Mastina. I didnt see any devellopment there, but thats ok. THe scumread is obvious, after all. Mastina is obv-scum to pretty much everyone except people that were already suspicious towards shuichi and RC. Those two were targetted specifically, even though Mastina at the time did not know it would resonate with TH as well. Surprise, surprise, it worked and me and TH townread her for her posts. The plan probably wouldve worked. Mastina would get lynched, RC would be obv-town to everyone, and me and TH would be lynched.

The laidback attitude changed when people started interfearing with his plan. Both me and TH got suspicious of Shuichi and started pushing there. At the time it was two people, and Ren lui was also including in my pool of suspects. Along with Sircakez. Suddenly TH needed to get lynched (this mightve started a bit earlier). Suddenly I needed to get lynched. This seemed easy enough, since plenty of town were still suspicious of me. That is when the push on me started. He didnt state clearly that he scumread me. But he kept gently pushing people to vote me.

And then the force replace happened. That is the biggest flaw in this "wacky theory" really. Shuichi reported Mastina and RC (amongst others probably, but still). Maybe Scumchat also was toxic and she just had enough? Maybe the strategy wasnt fun. Maybe it was pushed way too far and the game was indeed made unfun. Maybe im a confbiasing idiot seeing flying saucers and planets colliding.

This ends todays episode of fanfic with Vecna. I mightve just solved the game. I mightve just made you all laugh out loud and decide it really is time to lynch me now. But goddamn, do all the pieces fit quite alright in a meh type of way.

[Eve]

vecna what have you done

[Trojan Horses]

I mightve just made you all laugh out loud

This you've definitely done.
The biggest hole in your theory is that 2 scum get lynched and

wham

, town win. This means Mastina goes down and now RC has to prevent

both

of his buddies from getting lynched.
Even if he gets locktowned off the interactions, there's very high risk unless he can dictate all lynches (keep in mind his not dying makes him suspicious and people will also start thinking he maybe bussed).
Too bad a strategy for RC, he could take on strategies with much better payoff.

-Stuxnet