Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[eyestott]

from my perspective:
conftown [IC, ABR, DC, steyotet]
potentialscum [kickflip, boil em mash em stick em in a votecount, I've just met a girl named, lilitu demon, mysterious as the far side of the moooooooooooon, the whispered one] (chkflip, votato, maria, Lilith, farside, vecna]
of those 6, half are town, half are scum.
reads in order atm are:

Lilith
votato
farside
chkflip
Maria
Vecna

these will likely change when I finish catchup. Gonna finish catching up D2 then vote.

[farside22]

Well my paranoia was infound but my vote states.

[eyestott]

I have a rose.
So this confirms the 3 guns now, right?

[lilith2013]

Well my paranoia was infound but my vote states.

Paranoia re: what?

[farside22]

I have a rose.
So this confirms the 3 guns now, right?

Yes.

Well my paranoia was infound but my vote states.

Paranoia re: what?

Just the push from venca and abr about DC lying looked weird with no CC.
Put a pin in it for post game. It isn't important now.

[Vecna]

Ok, so no matter how you turn or twist it, it seems quite likely ive been hard defending at least one scum this game. My position is pretty shit and I dont think I can stave off my mislynch anymore. If not today, then likely tomorrow.

The one final defense I do have, is that I would not have instructed my scumteam to play this incompetent with the claims. Purely from a numbers perspective not setting up a solid gunclaim here was a huge strategic error from scum. Questions remains if they wouldve won it ofcourse, but im fairly sure scum me wouldve at least given it a decent attempt yesterday.

As per my earlier post, I think farside would be much more likely to pick up a N1 rose as scum than as town, because she tends to get lynched and caught as scum earlier in her Meta. She has not responded to my request to provide evidence where she was actually killed N1 by scum in the last three weeks, but maybe this is due to ongoing.

REGARDLESS, she should not be the lynch today. Icon should also NOT shoot her. Since its confirmed by DC that she is not the scum that shot the gun yesterday, she has a statistical lower probability of being scum, and by lynching her -if she is scum-, we are not giving ourselves the out of hitting the last scum with a potential gun. If the last scum has a gun, theres still a chance it is a N3 gun and trying to hit that tonight should be Ico's priority.

The chances are also quite present that scum have no gun anymore if there is another towny out here that had a N1 rose. Obviously were not going to claim this.

Anyways, im feeling like im just stating the obvious here in an attempt to sound towny, but I doubt its going to fly

[Vecna]

Anyways, maybe scum also didnt expect their night to go this well. Was gonna be an uphill battle regardless if they were gonna come out today claiming guns.

[farside22]

Games are ongoing. Cant provide evidence thats ongoing.
One whole scum read too.
Cool story.

[farside22]

What makes you think scum has a gun venca?

[Vecna]

I think outting more scumreads at this point is just going to get me hammered faster, which is not at all in my and towns best interest

Ive pretty much said my piece for the game. I am completely unsure at this point if I was wrong about eyestott and votato or not

[Vecna]

What makes you think scum has a gun venca?

Im quite sure my post went into different scenarios, all outlining that I do not know what were dealing with.

The only thing I know is that if youre scum, you should be the last of scum to die

[farside22]

Im your biggest scum read.
You think scum may have a gun.
So if im your biggest scum read wouldn't you want scum dead regardless? Your basically say hey icon shot in the dark and hope your right.
Your saying you don3see the bad logic on that?

[Vecna]

If I was so certain about you being scum, id be pushing you a lot harder. Like I said, purely statistically youre less likely to be scum than the other 5 in my PoE. You cannot be the scum that shot a gun last night, and you cannot be the scum that still has a gun left (if there is one).

In this much uncertainty, I opt to follow the numbers alongside my initial reads.

The thing that mainly works in against you is the logic of your N1 rose pick. Im not certain that is enough to actually be scumreading you here over the others.

[MariaR]

Vecna this is the current problem I have, let us just ignore the other day because that's beating a dead horse.

Your mindset here doesn't really seem towny to me. Hell, you even stated the reason why. We don't know the spot of the game we're in we could be in auto loss could be fine could be who knows. But, you're so worried about your own lynch and own viewpoints instead of putting out your scumreads. We have 3 ics who can talk over reads and 1 that has a gun.

Giving out your scumreads right now is what we need to do and talk it over because end of the day it's 3v7 and I would like to think most of us are logical enough to relook at the game if needed. So what are these reads of yours

[chkflip]

lmao scum going hard on the Vecna mislynch gg scum

[Vecna]

My gutreads? Its you + farside + a third

Im not certain where and if im wrong

the one thing I do know is me surviving is the best thing I can work towards, since that will improve town odds a lot more than just spewing reads in which I have very low confidence myself atm. The fact im at least admitting my reads are shit-tier atm already makes them better than everyone faking bravado and voting me full of confidence. Because you really shouldnt be expecting me to flip scum.

Im surprised that you or anyone else would think I actively go about attacking our ICs though. Without a plan to back that up. Ive been constantly stuck in the mindset that scum WOULD eventually cc the gun guys, because not doing so is just not sensible. Why give everyone a 50% PoE when we have a lynch and another gunshot? Having 1 person do a proper gun claim changes the odds to hit scum to 25% in the gunpool and 33% in the rose pool. its a fucking stupid scum strategy, but they sure got me to look like a buffoon by using the suboptimal approach.

[DonCorleone]

Can we lynch one of eyestott/vecna and have icon shoot the other one?

[DonCorleone]

You've played with me a bit I assume if you've meta'd me so you know by now everyone gets 'worried' about my slot.

I mean yes, true, but for good reason lol

[DonCorleone]

I want you to be town really bad Maria, partly for game reasons and partly for out of game reasons, but I am worried the *wanting* you to be town is interfering with my ability to read you which, if totally honest, is pretty terrible at the best of times.

I also don’t know how applicable meta is here because I think we’ve gotten along pretty well this game which I think has only normally happened on my main when you’ve been scum, but idk if me being on an alt here just let us start from a point that wasn’t you disliking me and that meant that this is what playing with you is normally like when there’s not any prior history there

[Albert B. Rampage]

Can we lynch one of eyestott/vecna and have icon shoot the other one?

Yes eyesyot

[DonCorleone]

Are you townreading vecna?

[DonCorleone]

And if so: why?

[Albert B. Rampage]

eyestot/votato are my main scumreads

[Albert B. Rampage]

Are you townreading vecna?

Vecna/maria/chkflip sorta equal

[chkflip]

How dare you. I am the perplexed.