Newbie 2001 | Game Over

[Karnage]

Vote Count 2.7

LuckyLuciano (2) ~

72offsuit, Gypyx,

enomis (1) ~

Tuxedo Mask,

72offsuit (1) ~

LuckyLuciano,

Not Voting (3) ~

Micc, enomis, Petrichorus,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-05-12 12:00:00)

V/LA: none

[enomis]

Why Lynch 72? I am believing him more and more. I can understand abit of the mechanical optimal play argument but it seems a bit stupid to me.

We're taking him finding random posts where he has a C, and O, and a P as a soft? I'm tracker. I softed it the moment I replaced into the game.

I vaguely had other topics in mind and planned to touch a bit more on each player, but this seems to be more interesting

so let's investigate here.

VOTE: Petri

Mafia probably role copped me and that's why 72o is suicide pushing. Gypyx is going to be lynched, and 72o looks like he's next on the chopping block so he claims cop to buy time. UNVOTE: Gypyx. VOTE: 72o. He's always fake claiming here, as there's no setup with both cop and tracker. N1 result available if necessary, but it'll help mafia narrow down the TPR pool so I'd rather not out.

There are two things that make me don't believe this claim.
1) Investigate is cop breadcrumb, not tracker.
2) I don't see why mafia would suicide as tracker is not that useful when there's two mafia. Unless Gypyx is his partner. Even then, it's a bit of a stretch.

[enomis]

Anyway, we only have one day left so take note of the time.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Yeah, lucky we have claims from the two people we're killing today. Ironically Lucky being one of them. So there isn't as much pressure to make a decision as there was before.

For the record
Enomis
72
Gyp
Micc
and Myself
are currently more towards lynching Lucky today.
Luck (obviously) wants to lynch 72.

Petri who are you leaning towards? So we have a sense of things if Lucky never comes back with a response.

[72offsuit]

!Scumme has no incentive to fake a guilty and sacrifice myself on day 2 with town having a mislynch.

[72offsuit]

We're taking him finding random posts where he has a C, and O, and a P as a soft? I'm tracker. I softed it the moment I replaced into the game.

I vaguely had other topics in mind and planned to touch a bit more on each player, but this seems to be more interesting

so let's investigate here.

VOTE: Petri

Mafia probably role copped me and that's why 72o is suicide pushing. Gypyx is going to be lynched, and 72o looks like he's next on the chopping block so he claims cop to buy time. UNVOTE: Gypyx. VOTE: 72o. He's always fake claiming here, as there's no setup with both cop and tracker. N1 result available if necessary, but it'll help mafia narrow down the TPR pool so I'd rather not out.

1. I softed with C O P in the 2nd line of all three posts.
I also softed with the words "maintaining" "order" which if you google "police roles" it comes up with britannica and explains the role of police in maintaining order.

2. If scum rolecop tracker, they just night kill tracker, they don;t "suicide push". Nice try though.

3. "72o looks like he's next on the chopping block"? Hardly.

[72offsuit]

A friendly neighbor should claim if they exist. This would lock in 72offsuit as scum.
If a Friendly Neighbor doesn’t exist the mechanically optimal play is to lynch 72offsuit. If it’s correct then Tracker+Doc gives another innocent over night while Cop would be 50% to get a result through the Roleblocker and 0% to get a result through 2xGoon.

That said, I believe 72offsuit more off the top of my head, but will need to do some looking back still if a Friendly Neighbor doesn’t come forward. Also both of you have useless crumbs.

The fly in the ointment is that you don't discuss the actually true scenario, of me being cop.

This is so incorrect its not funny. Makes me feel like LL is roleblocker and Micc is scum.

[72offsuit]

Yeah, lucky we have claims from the two people we're killing today. Ironically Lucky being one of them. So there isn't as much pressure to make a decision as there was before.

For the record
Enomis
72
Gyp
Micc
and Myself
are currently more towards lynching Lucky today.
Luck (obviously) wants to lynch 72.

Petri who are you leaning towards? So we have a sense of things if Lucky never comes back with a response.

Petri already said

[72offsuit]

UNVOTE: gypxy.

I think I believe 72 unless there is a counter claim from someone other than lucky. Also for something outside the game which I can't explain.

UNVOTE: Gypyx there's mine. No counter claim and a soft breadcrumb, I believe you 72. I understand why youd confbias tunnel so hard now.

Do you mean outside of MafiaScum itself, outside game 2001 or outside what is currently known?

@ TM - here

[Tuxedo Mask]

You're right, sorry I missed that. So unanimous disbelief in LL, it's good to know where we'll go when push comes to shove.

[72offsuit]

You're right, sorry I missed that. So unanimous disbelief in LL, it's good to know where we'll go when push comes to shove.

*72 shoves LL down an elevator shaft*

[enomis]

Actually, what are we even waiting for?

Just not voting now incase lucky can self-hammer to end the day.

But I don't think there will be anything else that will be useful today.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I was waiting until he answered my questions. I'm not as convinced as you guys. But nothing is stopping you from voting. Gyp, 72, Enomis, and Petri is enough for a lynch. I'd rather wait, but you know, do what you want.

[LuckyLuciano]

Man, Karnage is good at getting these Page tops.

Finished LL ISO. I got some questions. He's really consistent on pushing Petri and Gypx from the moment he started the game. He engages them, pressures them, and opens up pathways for them to provide content so he can evolve his read of them. However, his read doesn't evolve much.

His unvote and eventual null read of Petri feels...dishonest? He's pretty insistent that the unvote is only to prevent accidental hammers, while simultaneously taking credit for stopping the momentum, and allegedly reaction testing Petri. These separate moments all make sense on their own, but don't really mesh together for me. Especially since he seems to still hold Petri up as a viable lynch option.

@LL, I would need an in-depth Petri read from you, with some more explanation of your process. It seems inconsistent at the moment.

At this point I'm 100% sure it's just Gypyx + 72o.

His read of Gypx is at a similar point, but is much easier to follow and feels much more genuine. My questions here is..

@LL is your read Gypx solely based on their day 2 NK analysis? Or is their more you can provide?

No, I was also wary of Gypyx's odd play late D1 and his play just before you asked this question only ever comes from mafia.

Lastly relating to the Petri wagon is the BV wagon. He says at one point he's waiting for someone to defend Petri, and that no one does is a hint to them being town. However, this never comes up for BV who was also universally scum read.

@Do you have a reason for not defending BV the same way?

Yeah, two. (1) I more strongly believed BV to be mafia at the time of his wagon than I did Petri, and it felt that the overall consensus was the same. BV's wagon came so fast, and so late in the day phase, that it would have been impossible for a potential teammate to save him. (2) I try to end day phases before the last minute scramble because a rushed game state benefits mafia. Sorry for causing that here in D2, I've just not been into mafia the past few days, and that goes for all of the games I'm in.

There's also the reason I wanted to wait for BV and JV's replacement to contribute. This is a setup where a scum lynch D1 can be a mechanical loss for scum. I wanted to see how the inactives viewed the wagon, because I simply don't see a world where nobody defends Petri if he's scum. I thought I found this in BV's 194, but he says in 276 that he is still scumreading Petri. Then enomis comes in and in 253, is also scum on Petri. Lynching Petri doesn't feel right. I want to look back at the push and see who kinda just prodded it along without contributing to it. This is also why I wanted to wait for Tux to respond to Petri's 135. I haven't looked deeply into Tux's 255, so I don't have a reaction to it yet, but it's on my to-do list for this sitting.

A post like this pings me for its inherent hypocrisy. It's a defense of Petri based on the fact no one has yet to defend Petri, just yeah.

See above.

Ngl, BV's recent posts read as scum who knows they are caught. I don't see town motive for explicitly not wanting to help the town. I have an additional thought on this, but it loses its value if I voice it now. I'll explain it D2.

Can you explain what you were getting at here?

Sometimes when scum in dead in the water they start to openly play anti-town to allow their partner to hammer them for towncred. Stating that at the time would make the read meaningless. It turned out BV was town, but I think there's value in the read in the worlds where BV flips red.

[LuckyLuciano]

Why Lynch 72? I am believing him more and more. I can understand abit of the mechanical optimal play argument but it seems a bit stupid to me.

We're taking him finding random posts where he has a C, and O, and a P as a soft? I'm tracker. I softed it the moment I replaced into the game.

I vaguely had other topics in mind and planned to touch a bit more on each player, but this seems to be more interesting

so let's investigate here.

VOTE: Petri

Mafia probably role copped me and that's why 72o is suicide pushing. Gypyx is going to be lynched, and 72o looks like he's next on the chopping block so he claims cop to buy time. UNVOTE: Gypyx. VOTE: 72o. He's always fake claiming here, as there's no setup with both cop and tracker. N1 result available if necessary, but it'll help mafia narrow down the TPR pool so I'd rather not out.

There are two things that make me don't believe this claim.
1) Investigate is cop breadcrumb, not tracker.
2) I don't see why mafia would suicide as tracker is not that useful when there's two mafia. Unless Gypyx is his partner. Even then, it's a bit of a stretch.

1) Tracker is an investigative role.
2) Gypyx

is

his partner. That's the only possible solve at this point. Gypyx was going to be lynched when 72o decided to gambit. There's either a FN or a doc as the other TPR. If it's a doc, mafia has no way of stopping me and it's obvious that my next investigation target is 72o.

That's why 72o was so insistent on me taking a defined stance on him earlier.

. Once I track 72o, since he has to carry out the kill after a Gypyx lynch, it's game over. Mafia's

only

way to win this game is to mislynch me, 72o dies tomorrow, and then Gypyx at least has a shot at LYLO.

[LuckyLuciano]

!Scumme has no incentive to fake a guilty and sacrifice myself on day 2 with town having a mislynch.

We're taking him finding random posts where he has a C, and O, and a P as a soft? I'm tracker. I softed it the moment I replaced into the game.

I vaguely had other topics in mind and planned to touch a bit more on each player, but this seems to be more interesting

so let's investigate here.

VOTE: Petri

scum!72o loses if he doesn't gambit here. With the wagons tied on me and Gypyx, and TM leaning Gypyx, 72o has to force 2 mislynches to win the game after Gypyx is lynched. 50% of the time, there's a doc to protect me and the game is over D3. When there's not a doc, there's a FN. Either way, with 2 TPR remaining, the amount of non-TPR mislynches available is very low. Mafia has to get a mislynch on a TPR here to win.
Mafia probably role copped me and that's why 72o is suicide pushing. Gypyx is going to be lynched, and 72o looks like he's next on the chopping block so he claims cop to buy time. UNVOTE: Gypyx. VOTE: 72o. He's always fake claiming here, as there's no setup with both cop and tracker. N1 result available if necessary, but it'll help mafia narrow down the TPR pool so I'd rather not out.

1. I softed with C O P in the 2nd line of all three posts.
I also softed with the words "maintaining" "order" which if you google "police roles" it comes up with britannica and explains the role of police in maintaining order.

2. If scum rolecop tracker, they just night kill tracker, they don;t "suicide push". Nice try though.

3. "72o looks like he's next on the chopping block"? Hardly.

Explain to me how when you made these posts you couldn't have realized that you were going to have to gambit? Especially if you already role copped me and knew that our roles couldn't co-exist. At the point that you made these posts you could have just as easily had been waiting for me to be forced to claim if TM declared intent, and then you just CC me anyway.

[LuckyLuciano]

Everyone needs to realize that in a world where mafia is 72o + Gypyx, they were 100% going to lose the game if they don't pull something crazy. Look at the timing of 72o's gambit here. If he's truly a town cop, why does he wait for a player to get L-1, and watch as TM leans further and further towards Gypyx,

if he has a guilty on another player

. What happens if TM hammers and town!72o dies in the night? There's no justification for the way 72o played the day from a town perspective. His play makes perfect sense if he's hoping to get TM to vote on my wagon. Once Micc unvotes me, concerned with his company on the wagon (72o + Gypyx), mafia has lost the game. Their wincon is unachievable without making an extreme play like 72o is trying to do right now.

[72offsuit]

Everyone needs to realize that in a world where mafia is 72o + Gypyx, they were 100% going to lose the game if they don't pull something crazy. Look at the timing of 72o's gambit here. If he's truly a town cop, why does he wait for a player to get L-1, and watch as TM leans further and further towards Gypyx,

if he has a guilty on another player

. What happens if TM hammers and town!72o dies in the night? There's no justification for the way 72o played the day from a town perspective. His play makes perfect sense if he's hoping to get TM to vote on my wagon. Once Micc unvotes me, concerned with his company on the wagon (72o + Gypyx), mafia has lost the game. Their wincon is unachievable without making an extreme play like 72o is trying to do right now.

Because wagon analysis helps town.

[72offsuit]

Man, Karnage is good at getting these Page tops.

Finished LL ISO. I got some questions. He's really consistent on pushing Petri and Gypx from the moment he started the game. He engages them, pressures them, and opens up pathways for them to provide content so he can evolve his read of them. However, his read doesn't evolve much.

His unvote and eventual null read of Petri feels...dishonest? He's pretty insistent that the unvote is only to prevent accidental hammers, while simultaneously taking credit for stopping the momentum, and allegedly reaction testing Petri. These separate moments all make sense on their own, but don't really mesh together for me. Especially since he seems to still hold Petri up as a viable lynch option.

@LL, I would need an in-depth Petri read from you, with some more explanation of your process. It seems inconsistent at the moment.

At this point I'm 100% sure it's just Gypyx + 72o.

His read of Gypx is at a similar point, but is much easier to follow and feels much more genuine. My questions here is..

@LL is your read Gypx solely based on their day 2 NK analysis? Or is their more you can provide?

No, I was also wary of Gypyx's odd play late D1 and his play just before you asked this question only ever comes from mafia.

Lastly relating to the Petri wagon is the BV wagon. He says at one point he's waiting for someone to defend Petri, and that no one does is a hint to them being town. However, this never comes up for BV who was also universally scum read.

@Do you have a reason for not defending BV the same way?

Yeah, two. (1) I more strongly believed BV to be mafia at the time of his wagon than I did Petri, and it felt that the overall consensus was the same. BV's wagon came so fast, and so late in the day phase, that it would have been impossible for a potential teammate to save him. (2) I try to end day phases before the last minute scramble because a rushed game state benefits mafia. Sorry for causing that here in D2, I've just not been into mafia the past few days, and that goes for all of the games I'm in.

There's also the reason I wanted to wait for BV and JV's replacement to contribute. This is a setup where a scum lynch D1 can be a mechanical loss for scum. I wanted to see how the inactives viewed the wagon, because I simply don't see a world where nobody defends Petri if he's scum. I thought I found this in BV's 194, but he says in 276 that he is still scumreading Petri. Then enomis comes in and in 253, is also scum on Petri. Lynching Petri doesn't feel right. I want to look back at the push and see who kinda just prodded it along without contributing to it. This is also why I wanted to wait for Tux to respond to Petri's 135. I haven't looked deeply into Tux's 255, so I don't have a reaction to it yet, but it's on my to-do list for this sitting.

A post like this pings me for its inherent hypocrisy. It's a defense of Petri based on the fact no one has yet to defend Petri, just yeah.

See above.

Ngl, BV's recent posts read as scum who knows they are caught. I don't see town motive for explicitly not wanting to help the town. I have an additional thought on this, but it loses its value if I voice it now. I'll explain it D2.

Can you explain what you were getting at here?

Sometimes when scum in dead in the water they start to openly play anti-town to allow their partner to hammer them for towncred. Stating that at the time would make the read meaningless. It turned out BV was town, but I think there's value in the read in the worlds where BV flips red.

Ok cool. If gyp and I are 100% scum duo, you should be ok with being lynched as this would out me and gyp as scum.

[LuckyLuciano]

What I'm saying is that a Gypyx!hammer could have happened while you were offline. Town!72o doesn't let that possibility exist when he has a guilty on the alternate wagon. Especially since the thread could be locked before you get to post and you could be NK'd without ever outing your guilty. Waiting until Micc backs off my wagon is timing only explained by scum!72o + scum!Gypyx. Town!72o can let the charade go on for long enough to get valuable wagon analysis without risking a Gypyx hammer.

[72offsuit]

What I'm saying is that a Gypyx!hammer could have happened while you were offline. Town!72o doesn't let that possibility exist when he has a guilty on the alternate wagon. Especially since the thread could be locked before you get to post and you could be NK'd without ever outing your guilty. Waiting until Micc backs off my wagon is timing only explained by scum!72o + scum!Gypyx. Town!72o can let the charade go on for long enough to get valuable wagon analysis without risking a Gypyx hammer.

Noone in this playerlist gave me the impression they would lolhammer.

[LuckyLuciano]

Ok cool. If gyp and I are 100% scum duo, you should be ok with being lynched as this would out me and gyp as scum.

This is literally just WIFOM put out there to make it look like you and Gypyx aren't the scumteam. Even if by some obscene stretch of the imagination you aren't, it's still better to lynch you instead of just offering myself like a lamb because after you flip red, I can track Gypyx to confirm that he's scum. If I'm wrong, I'll know that I'm wrong and that's valuable too.

[LuckyLuciano]

Why said anything about a lolhammer? Anyway, I'm not going to argue with scum. If any of the other players have questions for me, I'm around for a bit.

[72offsuit]

Why said anything about a lolhammer? Anyway, I'm not going to argue with scum. If any of the other players have questions for me, I'm around for a bit.

I agree, you shouldn't have a monologue. <3

[Micc]

A friendly neighbor should claim if they exist. This would lock in 72offsuit as scum.
If a Friendly Neighbor doesn’t exist the mechanically optimal play is to lynch 72offsuit. If it’s correct then Tracker+Doc gives another innocent over night while Cop would be 50% to get a result through the Roleblocker and 0% to get a result through 2xGoon.

That said, I believe 72offsuit more off the top of my head, but will need to do some looking back still if a Friendly Neighbor doesn’t come forward. Also both of you have useless crumbs.

The fly in the ointment is that you don't discuss the actually true scenario, of me being cop.

This is so incorrect its not funny. Makes me feel like LL is roleblocker and Micc is scum.

If you're Cop then a friendly neighbor won't exist and I discussed that scenario pretty explicitly. The mechanically optimal play would be to lynch you, but I believe you over LL right now and would probably vote that way.

So for me the most important thing is to lynch correctly today if at all possible. That is guaranteed with a friendly neighbor claim. Without a Friendly Neighbor I think we lynch LL.