mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Morning Tweet]

Well they lose one member, but if that member is in group one, they win the game

i dont think we can dismiss 1/1/1 just because it guarantees one mafia member dies. In 2/0/1 or 2/0/1, they run a decent risk of losing one member as well.

They can get a shot at actually winning in 1/1/1, and the worst that can happen is losing one member.

[dsjstr]

I was thinking about why they built the groups 8-2-3. Group 1 has a majority of votes so they basically decide which group will get lynched, if all 3 of the mafia were in that group then that would give them a lot of power. Of course they could have gone

in groups 2 and 3 and lynching group one would win them the game. Even if we get reads on 1 person in group 1 I think it would still be better to lynch groups 2 or 3 just to get more info about what the mafia was thinking.

Well they lose one member, but if that member is in group one, they win the game

i dont think we can dismiss 1/1/1 just because it guarantees one mafia member dies. In 2/0/1 or 2/0/1, they run a decent risk of losing one member as well.

They can get a shot at actually winning in 1/1/1, and the worst that can happen is losing one member.

They get a shot at winning even if there is no member in group 1, if they were hoping that we would lynch group 1 why would they hang one of their men?

[dsjstr]

or women

[Kanna]

I wouldn't discount all scum being in group 1. I think, provided the scumteam are a group of people who don't like playing scum, they might choose to go down together (worst case scenario). 1/1/1 seems like the safest option, but kind of demoralising if they know one of their guys go down no matter what they do.

after thinking about it i think there's *probably* at least 2 scum in group 1

i do agree with scumhunting though. I think our priority sorts are groups 2 and 3. Ame's idea is interesting, although it's one of those ideas that requires everyone to be on board with and i'm not sure if that will be the case

[Kanna]

It feels like a conspiracy.

✿!!!

[Kanna]

The sad thing is, even if there's 2 scum in group 1 and we lynch them, we still take down so many townies in the process

i feel like this is scumsided...

[Mohab500]

I'd assume any 1-1-1 scum formation would be scum trying to blend in more easily, as any group lynched will have scum and therefore 'scum reading' and 'trying to move the game forward' will be significantly easier to fake.
That said, I wouldn't say thinking about partitions is all that useful for us at the moment, there are way too many possibilities and the sooner we have something more concrete to start discussing, the more likely town can win. Around D2, when we know more about every player, is when I think theorycrafting partition ideas becomes way more useful.

[Mohab500]

But, as everybody is talking about it and we have nothing else to really discuss for the moment, I will say that 3 scum being in group 1 isn't really out of reach. What Kanna mentioned earlier is true, but I was more thinking that scum will know we're hesitant to lynch the largest group anyways, so they might just take that risk of putting 3 scum in the largest as it's kind of mitigated by the risk we take to lynch the largest group (which, in the worst case scenario, results in an immediate loss for us). I think if we suspect there is at least one scum in group 1, it's worth lynching, but if we just lynch group 1 solely because it's the largest and assume scum would've put all their eggs in one basket, then I would say it's not really worth it.

[Mohab500]

I actually forgot to take into account the fact that scum has a N1 kill. This makes lynching group 1 even more risky, and a 1-1-1 or a 2-0-1 (as that guy above mentioned) even more likely. I think group 1 definitely has a scum member in it, but we could use that to our advantage in D2 rather than risk a lynch on group 1 with it.

[Mohab500]

VOTE: group 3

[Ame]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

Ok

[Ame]

I think, provided the scumteam are a group of people who don't like playing scum, they might choose to go down together (worst case scenario).

This is quite specific.

[enomis]

VOTE: group 3

You are voting your own group?

[enomis]

Anyway for the theory crafting, I don't think Mafia will go 1,1,1.
It sounds like a stupid strategy. No matter what you do,
your go from 3/13 (23%) to 2/10(20%) or 2/11(18%). You are literally decreasing your win rate yourself.

And if we lynch group 1 and manage to lynch 2 scum, our win rate goes from 23% to 33%.
So if just looking at ev, I think lynching group one is positive ev play.

I think this should be right but i seldom to theory craft on mafiascum.

[Ame]

Your point is contradictory though. If lynching group 1 has the highest EV, then distributing scum 1:1:1 is the ideal strategy as it has the highest probability of a Day 1 win.

[Ame]

Additionally, using the scum-to-town ration isn't an effective way of determining the win rate as it ignores binning.

[Ame]

-n *

[enomis]

Your point is contradictory though. If lynching group 1 has the highest EV, then distributing scum 1:1:1 is the ideal strategy as it has the highest probability of a Day 1 win.

This is going into WIFOM territory where I am just discussing on paper, the best play.

Furthermore they only distribute 1:1:1 if they think the same way as me AND believe town is ballsy enough to lynch group 1.

I don't think scum will fulfill both requirements.


----------------
pedit - What is binning?

[Ame]

Seeing as the majority of players have expressed this view, I think it's quite likely.

wrt binning, I mean it ignores the groups and group placement. You can't use the scum-to-town ratio because of it

[Ame]

For example, say there are 2 scum in group 1 and we lynch group 1

Then the probability of scum winning is ~1/4 not 1/10

[Ame]

(and even then, that probability isn't quite correct as it ignores group placement for the next day, but to make the point)

[enomis]

Oh right. Ok nvm, I made a mistake in the calculation. I was thinking both numbers from scum pov.

Anyway, this makes me abit demoralized. If either group 2 or 3 have to get kicked.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What kind of crazy ass distribution is this? This is fucked.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Scum would just put all 3 in group 1 knowing that nobody will self-lynch, and then sweep the game from there.

[Raya36]

We should consider lynching group 1 only if we're confident in townreading everyone in groups 2 and 3. Otherwise the risk is pretty high

Out of the people in those two groups, I believe I can read clidd and I could read Mohab at one point years ago

I agree with this. I do think it's likely that either 1 or 2 scum are in the large group but if none of them (or 1, (or 2 for mylo)) are in it we would lose the game like Morning said. I think it's too risky unless we are really confident in townreading those in groups 2 and 3. There are just too many ways for lynching group 1 to go wrong for me to ever be fully comfortable lynching it though. In the end it's a gamble so unless we strongly townread those outside of it I wouldn't.

Anyway,
Slight townleans on Morning and Cat for the speculation.

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

I definitely agree we should scumhunt and choose the group we lynch based on who we think is scum. And I also agree we should only lynch group 1 if we have a general consensus on at least two players in the group being scum. Speculation on where scum placed themselves is good but it can only get you so far.

I think group 1 definitely has a scum member in it, but we could use that to our advantage in D2 rather than risk a lynch on group 1 with it.

I like this a lot. I don't think I'd be comfortable risking group 1 unless we are sure about the other groups being town but we don't have to lynch group 1 to use the fact that it probably has scum to our advantage. I think this is the safest move with the most potential to be beneficial to town. I highly doubt scum placed all 3 members in group 1 so I say we lynch whichever of group 2 or 3 has a member we scumread in it if we do.