I'll recheck all of your ISO's sometime today, I briefly looked at night and I don't think I have a strong scumread or anyone, but I think I can find a stronger clue by process of elimination.
Okay, let's look at what we know and attempt to find answers to what we don't. Let me begin.
1) We know that mafia checked the previous game with 1/1/1 distribution from Ame's post. They chose to do a 2/1/0 or a 2/0/1 distribution so they had a
lynchbait option where no scum dies
. The question is, was that group 2 or group 3?
Of course, we know my theory:
Spoiler:
In post 378, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Group 3 is the most easy to lynch.
Group 2 is the safest option to continue the game with no clear winner.
Group 1 is where all the scum are hiding.
The first is less likely, as it proposes a slow game and would involve Scum!Albert involved, something that I find a little inconsistent considering that the appropriate form of distribution would be to place players who are vocally transparent in each of the groups, because at the same time as one scum is eliminated, players of relevance would also be, which also makes it evident that the composition {Clidd, Albert} is strongly antagonistic to this idea, which is why I imagine it to be unlikely. The second would also involve Scum!Albert, but it doesn't make a lot of sense because it would be better done with the addition of 1 ~ 2 players to group 2, something that would be more interesting in the sense of cost-benefit, especially because the group 3 does not seem to me to be a weak trio verbally, which would be characterized as a disadvantage for group 2 early in the game and would make this type of formation unfeasible. The third is plausible, considering that the camouflage of 2 members in the group with the largest number of players would be a safe move, while one of the members of group 3 would be instructed to push against the smaller group, being able to use both the pretext of Albert's existence, which is a slot with a shallow playstyle, as well as the numerical justification, considering that only 2 players will be lynched, therefore, the loss would be, theoretically, less than the lynch of group 1 ~ 3. The fourth would make sense only in the scenario where the two scums in group 3 were planning to deliver Scum!Albert via buss to gain town credibility early in the game, but the fact that they only put one more player in the group, instead of adding more players, reduce the damage done and imply a very early disadvantage for them, which might not be worth it in the long run, considering that there would eventually be speculation and suspicion about the centralization of votes in the group, which probably would not take long to lead to the inference that there was a bus in the middle of the wagon. The fifth would be possible in the scenario in which Scum!Dsj, Scum!Enomis and Scum!Mohab were able to embark on a risky gambit, but I believe that this would underestimate the cognitive capacity of group 1 and does not fit the profile of Scum!Dsj ( at least as far as I observed in our scum in common), where he would probably strongly suggest the change of composition due to the lack of security he would feel. The push, in this context, would also be group 2. The sixth seems more plausible to me than the fifth, considering that there are players like Scum!Hoctac and Scum!Ame who could build a narrative where groups 3 and 2 were the main lynchs , under the pretext that the numerical force of group 1 would make the materialization of a lynch unfeasible, and that it would be safer in the mathematical sense to choose groups 2 and 3. The seventh also makes sense, with the same push reasoning of compositions 3 and 5.
Conclusion:
compositions 3, 5, 6 and 7 make sense in my conception, considering that I can imagine the establishment of pushs on group 2 only because of the existence of Albert in it. That said, I am inclined to think that group 3 has expressive chances of having scum in its composition.
Here's the theory: If Group 3 was lynchbait, and town didn't go for it, clidd had to kill enomis because he was the only one from group 3 who sheeped me to vote group 1. Lynching group 1 was bad for scum, so clidd hopes to frame the remaining group 3 who were off-wagon to win the game on Day 2.
3) We know scum didn't want to get group 1 lynched, as evidenced by Ame's posts:
In post 517, Ame wrote:But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives us evidence of how they think and we can work from there. Right now we are just random guessing and going in circles.
So why does Ame change her mind and vote group 1 at the end of the day? Most likely because the final scum said "I got this" and she put her faith in that player's math. Again, who's the numbers guy in the scum team? We know it's not Ame, and we know it's not Raya, so by elimination it has to be the third scum.
When we look at Raya's post, who is playing a more straightforward mafia game, she's trying to set up group 3 for a lynch as well:
In post 617, Albert B. Rampage wrote:The fact that no one from group 2 or 3 has hammered group 1 pretty much confirms my theory of minimal scum in groups 2-3.
This is a good point. Because of this I'll consider group 1 but first I need to actually find 2 or 3 people on it I actually think are scum and so far I'm mostly only seeing scummy players in group 3.
4) We know that if we mislynch group 3 today, it's instant-lose. So let's compare me and clidd.
In post 456, clidd wrote:''@Clidd, do you have a read on Albert outside of partition composition?''If you want, I can go into details, but basically it is because of the way he is playing. The aggressiveness he showed in defending the idea that group 1 is strategically feasible to be lynched seems to me an ignorant behavior that I see coming from an interpersonal trait characteristic of his profile, where he is probably frustrated/irritated by the gamestate, which makes sense within the scenario in which Town!Albert demonstrates emotional levels that would not make much sense in the Scum!Albert mentality, where he would be aware that his reasoning is fraudulent. In other words, it is my interpretation of the slot to distinguish that his expressions/reactions are within a natural spectrum of conduct, very different from what I feel about Ame, for example (which is forced).
He says it's ignorant to want to lynch group 1 but I'm town. What are the main differences between us?
A) I wanted to lynch group 1 from the start, which Raya and Ame didn't want.
B) I was on the final lynch of group 1, and clidd is not.
C) I wanted to avoid casting suspicion on clidd, so I could break the game in the final day and win. clidd wanted to avoid casting suspicion on me, so that group 3 gets lynched day 1, and that I would side with him on day 2.
5) We know that clidd heavily buddied me from day 1.
In post 204, Morning Tweet wrote:If i were setting up these groups, it would seem really obvious to me as scum that Group #3 is going to receive the most lynch pressure.
It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.
And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao
i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se
At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside
I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well
I can understand your reasoning, but I believe that you are underestimating group 3. The pressure, in my opinion, would be in the lynch of group 2, considering the attempts to push during the day, and they only eased when I was able to participate more actively in the game, this clearly does not seem normal to me.
Especially considering that I expressed a scumread on Mohab yesterday and was scumhunting in group 3 without ever publicly suspecting clidd. Clidd has been mirroring this and suspecting Mohab since day 1 as well. All his actions make sense coming into today with his evaluation of me thus far.
7) Finally, I would say that clidd has been acting like he knows too much.
In post 668, clidd wrote:I agree about the game state indicating 2 scums on group 1, but I highly doubt that they are 3 because of the reads that I have on group 3. It would be an insult to my analysis ability to say that group 3 is entirely town, so my solve at the moment is 2-0-1.
He knows what he's doing. He sees where the game needs to go for him to win. There isn't any doubt or second thoughts in his play.
Now that I've laid out my case, you should feel confident in the fact that I am one of the top scumhunters on this site. I just completed another game where I nailed all of the scum and accurately predicted their strategy on day 2. Rest assured that it's normal for me to see the matrix. I'm not trying to bamboozle you. Even if I were, lynching clidd does not end the game if he's town. Lynching dsjstr or Mohab will.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
"If Group 3 was lynchbait, and town didn't go for it, clidd had to kill enomis because he was the only one from group 3 who sheeped me to vote group 1"
Why would Scum!Clidd kill enomis for also adopting voting reasoning on group 1 ? It would be much more advantageous to kill you instead of him.
Yeah, exactly. Killing me leaves clidd as the only player from group 2, and group 3 who he has been scumreading all of day 1 can easily OMGUS / gang up on him.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
"Lynching group 1 was bad for scum, so clidd hopes to frame the remaining group 3 who were off-wagon to win the game on Day 2."
It makes no sense. Group 3 was the most scummy group among the three groups and I worked on the hypothesis that there would be at least one scum among them throughout the day. If Scum!Clidd really wanted to frame the group, it would make more sense to have kept Enomis alive, as there would be 3 push options. Off-wagon doesn't mean anything.
Group 1 is too risky and if there is 1 member in group 2 then even without reads it would be a 50/50 we get them the next day.
Mohab and dsjstr are obviously fucking town, look at these posts. We know for a fact that there's only 1 scum in groups 2 and 3 combined, and both of these guys are trying to self-lynch lol.
This game is solved.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
Looking at the VC the only person who actually voted for group 1 was enomis. Something that stuck out to me other than the fact that none of us lynched the mafia was the fact that Ame lynched herself.
@Albert
Now before I continue I want to understand what was the purpose of your performance with Adorable?
Yeah, exactly. Killing me leaves clidd as the only player from group 2, and group 3 who he has been scumreading all of day 1 can easily OMGUS / gang up on him.
Group 1 is too risky and if there is 1 member in group 2 then even without reads it would be a 50/50 we get them the next day.
Mohab and dsjstr are obviously fucking town, look at these posts. We know for a fact that there's only 1 scum in groups 2 and 3 combined, and both of these guys are trying to self-lynch lol.
This game is solved.
I think you played it wrong here. I had you as a strong TR, so there was a greater chance that you would convince me that Mohab / Dsj were scums than trying to force this narrative.
In post 740, dsjstr wrote:@Albert Now before I continue I want to understand what was the purpose of your performance with Adorable?
If you mean MorningTweet and not Adorable, since I was death tunneling group 1, people thought I might be the chief conspirator of a 1-1-1 scum partition and trying to win in 1 fell swoop by lynching group 1. MT put group 1 at L-1 for me to hammer so that I could prove I didn't hammer, which would make me instantly win if I were scum with another buddy outside group 1.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
