SIR Disease Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #3075 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:10 am

Post by Voted »

In post 3043, Quick wrote:Miss Lynch - Too many posts to be Scum
for i in range (1000):
post (something)
"Our sample of the population showed that the mental well-being before the pandemic was much greater than during the rampage of covid-19," - Dr. Elisabetta Micelli
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Post Post #3076 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:19 am

Post by Voted »

In post 3065, Auro wrote:
In post 1, Covid 19 wrote:5. This game possesses modified win conditions. They are listed below:
5a. Town Win Condition: Eliminate the mafia conspirers and all infected players.
5b. Town Alternate Win Condition: Have half or more of all living players
gain permanent immunity
to the disease.
5c. Mafia/Infected Win Condition: Gain parity with the town.
6. Twice per game, mafia may kill any player that they choose. Aside from those two instances, mafia possess the ability to factionally infect a player and to
kill an infected player
each night.
7. Infected players will flip as "XYZ Role changed to ABC role" as appropriate.
Some mechanical deductions, dunno if they were arrived at earlier but here:
  • Immunity is a thing.
  • Either immunity is a preventative thing, or an effect that happens after infection.
  • If it was the former (i.e. once infected, forever infected) there's no reason for scum to be able to kill an infected player. Therefore, we're in the case where
    infected can be cured
    .
  • If infected can be "cured",
    they would not possess knowledge of the mafia team
    .
  • Thus, the infected have a malleable win-con, in that they
    choose
    their win-con. The aim of the game is to win. If it was
    certainty
    that a claimed infected could be cured, and they have a honest belief that they have equal/higher chances to win as town than as infected, they can freely out; I wouldn't consider this as throwing, and I'm surprised why the mod thinks it is. Although it's not a certainty, I think it has decent chances.
  • -Redacted-
  • If an infected person was trying to play to the infected win-con without outing, and given that we've deduced they don't know the scum team, how would they approach the game?
    How would their approach differ from D1 in terms of achieving the lynches they want?
I've redacted one part of these deductions for a reason, so don't ask :P

To hone in on infected, simply find players who were making genuine stances on D1 and aren't now.
The best strategy you can do is to claim infected when you are infected and then let town lynch you. Mafia/ infected win when they reach parity, so this way ~14 town can get infected, lynched, and win. Making your win odds 7/9 (75%). Which is better than when you stick to your town wincon (if the game is balanced, you have winrate ~50%).
"Our sample of the population showed that the mental well-being before the pandemic was much greater than during the rampage of covid-19," - Dr. Elisabetta Micelli
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Post Post #3077 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:29 am

Post by Voted »

Also, in a non-cult mafia game, there is another strategy that allows town players to win. You change your password to a given word and then let other town players log to your account and read your PM. 100% town winrate.

I wonder why it is not being used.
Oh, I think I remember.
Because it breaks the whole point of the game.
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Post Post #3078 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:31 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Okay so I'd like to point something out that I think might be a false assumption from a lot of the players here. For the record, this is entirely speculative but I think it warrants a post.

We are assuming players know they are infected on the night they get the virus. I do not think this is the case. I see sowhere in the rules where it says this is the case. If I kissed it please let me know!

Covid does not show symptoms immediately and I would not be surprised if the infected didn't know they were infected for a phase or two.

I would also not be surprised if the infected could spread the disease with their night actions, or by being visited at night, so I think we should put a full stop on all non-essential visiting-style night actions! It's a real world precaution we must conaider here in order to cull the spread of this virus! Doctors, cops, etc should plz always do your jobs! But know that it puts you at risk!
Fruit vendors should stay at home. Email spamming actually probably would not have transmitted it but other roles are likely to!

So this whole "claim when infected" thing is probably an unachievable goal and it also assumes the infected player isn't going to opt to switch sides once they know.

And fuck me if there is a superspreader role O.o
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Post Post #3079 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:32 am

Post by Auro »

I'm quite certain there's an additional mechanic of a specific type that counters this break, so having them claim and then curing them is better.
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Post Post #3080 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:39 am

Post by Auro »

@Voted's other point: Yes, cheating does break the whole point of the game, and his hence banned. So?

@Aristophanes:
The mod's 1114 post implies they would know; otherwise you'd have to be playing to an unknown win-con and that's just dumb. Also, that would count as a secret win-con, technically.
I'm sure at least just being infected wouldn't allow you to infect someone, but yeah, certain roles might.
The goal might be unachievable, but I'm outlining a method where you could catch them if they try playing to the infected parity win-con. :P
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Post Post #3081 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:07 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

If infected don't out ASAP, we lynch them, yeah?
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Post Post #3082 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:16 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 3081, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If infected don't out ASAP, we lynch them, yeah?
Kinda hard if they don't out themselves... :lol:
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Post Post #3083 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:53 am

Post by gobbledygook »

I am pretty sure this is still scum

VOTE: Quick
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Post Post #3084 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:01 am

Post by gobbledygook »

If someone could immunize me that would be swell by the way >_>

Nero/Auro who are the scum?
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Post Post #3085 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:11 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 3082, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 3081, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If infected don't out ASAP, we lynch them, yeah?
Kinda hard if they don't out themselves... :lol:
Well I mean if they out because they're about to get lynched.
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Post Post #3086 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:12 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 3085, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
In post 3082, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 3081, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If infected don't out ASAP, we lynch them, yeah?
Kinda hard if they don't out themselves... :lol:
Well I mean if they out because they're about to get lynched.
That would, in fact, be quite the misplay! Good point :lol:
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Post Post #3087 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:36 am

Post by Voted »

In post 3078, Aristophanes wrote:We are assuming players know they are infected on the night they get the virus.
I asked the mod. He said so.
"Our sample of the population showed that the mental well-being before the pandemic was much greater than during the rampage of covid-19," - Dr. Elisabetta Micelli
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Post Post #3088 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:38 am

Post by Voted »

In post 3080, Auro wrote:@Voted's other point: Yes, cheating does break the whole point of the game, and his hence banned. So?
So does claiming that you are infected.
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Post Post #3089 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:39 am

Post by Hoctac »

I'm pretty sure someone mentioned they could heal infected earlier?
not yet sentient
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Post Post #3090 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:40 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Hmmmmmm

Jakie the Wolf looks scummy in Iso.

Hey Jake! Any reads you'd like to impart upon us? Thus far I see a lot of setup talk, a lot of theorizing (some of which appears deliberately incorrect), and a weird push for infected to claim that feels a lmost LAMIST.

VOTE: Jake the Wolfie
Satisfy me!
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Post Post #3091 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:41 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 3087, Voted wrote:
In post 3078, Aristophanes wrote:We are assuming players know they are infected on the night they get the virus.
I asked the mod. He said so.
Gotcha, thanks!
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Post Post #3092 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:44 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3070, Saudade wrote:I've no thoughts about this game otherwise, I think FL was here, is he still not posting?
Scum?
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Post Post #3093 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:46 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3071, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
In post 3053, TrueSoulEnergy wrote::left:
In post 3051, Hoctac wrote:TSE, got any reads yet? And don't you dare get the WHEEL in
I haven’t been paying much attention to this so no.
I don’t got any.

But I’ll tell you something.
If your town, I will know. I will know your Misguided about reading my slot scum when I’m Town.
If your Scum, I will know. And I’ll make sure everyone else knows it to.
But as for right now.
I’m going to head to sleep.
Good Night!
U scum lol
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Post Post #3094 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:48 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 3093, davesaz wrote:
In post 3071, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
In post 3053, TrueSoulEnergy wrote::left:
In post 3051, Hoctac wrote:TSE, got any reads yet? And don't you dare get the WHEEL in
I haven’t been paying much attention to this so no.
I don’t got any.

But I’ll tell you something.
If your town, I will know. I will know your Misguided about reading my slot scum when I’m Town.
If your Scum, I will know. And I’ll make sure everyone else knows it to.
But as for right now.
I’m going to head to sleep.
Good Night!
U scum lol
If you would only add a "because clause" to this you might achieve having a useful thought in the game.
You should vote them with me :)
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Post Post #3095 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:50 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 3087, Voted wrote:
In post 3078, Aristophanes wrote:We are assuming players know they are infected on the night they get the virus.
I asked the mod. He said so.
Bullshit. I asked the mod and they said no comment.

VOTE: Voted
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Post Post #3096 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:52 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 3093, davesaz wrote:
In post 3071, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
In post 3053, TrueSoulEnergy wrote::left:
In post 3051, Hoctac wrote:TSE, got any reads yet? And don't you dare get the WHEEL in
I haven’t been paying much attention to this so no.
I don’t got any.

But I’ll tell you something.
If your town, I will know. I will know your Misguided about reading my slot scum when I’m Town.
If your Scum, I will know. And I’ll make sure everyone else knows it to.
But as for right now.
I’m going to head to sleep.
Good Night!
U scum lol
If you would only add a "because clause" to this you might achieve having a useful thought in the game.
U scum because I said so lol
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Post Post #3097 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 6:59 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3087, Voted wrote:
In post 3078, Aristophanes wrote:We are assuming players know they are infected on the night they get the virus.
I asked the mod. He said so.
This may or may not be helpful information depending on the question you asked.

I would expect being infected to resolve as an end of night thing so you'd find out at beginning of day. This is not "the night they are infected" but it is "the day after they're infected". Timing matters and because of that the wording of the question may matter.

If they really don't find out that same morning then I would expect that cures must occur before they are notified. That would imply that getting cured is ineffective on people who have changed wincon to infected, which might imply that true infected do gain knowledge of who their wincon includes. This should manifest as delayed unwillingness to lynch people who were on the table earlier, not accompanied by noticeable changes in the target player's content.
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Post Post #3098 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 7:02 am

Post by davesaz »

I actually misread that post, seeing "no" instead of "so". Must be because I haven't had coffee yet. You may interpret it as thoughts on how it would work if there were delayed notification.
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Post Post #3099 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 7:13 am

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3067, Saudade wrote:
In post 3063, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 3060, Saudade wrote:we should lynch quick please :(
whats your argument against the defense he's been too loudly wishy washy to be scum?
that he's going to exhaust us all so its beneficial to lynch him before that happens regardless of his alignment
pretty weak. you just admitted you dont care what he flips.
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