I usually maintain that to soft-defend the redflip is a towntell because if scum is willing to accept the bad association that results from making that read, they generally want to at least get the returns of preventing the lynch in the short-term, but soft defense is very weak manipulation of gamestate. The short answer is that I didn't expect him to make such a poor play.
The less asshole, more intellectually rigorous answer is that I didn't successfully factor in some elements of his personality. Probably his hyper low-effort posting style should've tipped me off that the tell doesn't apply here, because those brief comments about Cycle Men suddenly being town-solvey or Elements being the better lynch could've genuinely been his best attempt at manipulating momentum.
This also means that scum, or at least Norwee, did in fact change their minds about bussing Cycle Men halfway through D1. Depending on how much we expect scum to be coordinating via daychat, that could also implicate late joiners on the wagon moreso than you or me who contributed to its rejuvenation.
