Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

[Umlaut]

Though I'm honestly feeling better about the Zulfy option the more he posts things like 2096.

[clidd]

Umlaut, maybe we should lynch B.S to confirm you as town.

[clidd]

I don't think Hoctac is scum because of the slip he detected from Quick.

[Umlaut]

Why couldn't scum detect that?

[Umlaut]

I will resign myself to B.S. if I can't get a neighborhood lynch, but understand I'm not 100% sold on the traitor hypothesis here and I'm expecting we lose the game if it's wrong because at least you, Hoctac, and Looker will want to lynch me tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

...wait, you won't, because you'll analyze me. So you'll either be dead or saying I'm town (or at least I'll know you're scum if you say otherwise).

[clidd]

He interpreted Quick as scum rather than a PR with additional information. I believe Scum!Hoctac would approach the game with a hunting mindset, rather than an investigative one, which would make it more difficult for him to make that kind of observation.

[clidd]

...wait, you won't, because you'll analyze me. So you'll either be dead or saying I'm town (or at least I'll know you're scum if you say otherwise).

It will depend on NK, if I stay alive.

[clidd]

If we lynch inside the hood, it has to be Zulfy. Outside is B.S

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Hoctac

I went looking for evidence that Hoctac and brassherald were likely buddies and instead I found evidence that {B.S., Hoctac} is highly unlikely.

ALSO, I just realised that Klick asking Atarashi and I specifically probably means either valoneast or Zulfy is the scum partner of the 3. I think it's less likely he makes that info-perspective slip while asking a scum buddy why he shouldn't vote for the others in his hood.

If Hoctac is scum and there is a traitor, then Hoctac knows there is a traitor but not who it is -- but the traitor knows who the rest of the scum are.

If Hoctac is scum

and

there's a traitor, then when Quick makes a post specifically calling for the attention of the other two scum, Hoctac is most likely to read it as a traitor soft.

Okay, the scumteam is {B.S., Zulfy}. Game solved. Which one do we want to lynch?

[Umlaut]

Actually, it could still be {Zulfy, Hoctac}.

VOTE: Zulfy

[Zulfy]

ahaha give me a BREAK

[Zulfy]

2096 is some of my best work

[Zulfy]

I thought it was to implicate Umlaut, who is not in the hood.

and yet he's pushing for anyone but Umlaut.

[Auro]

A little interesting that Umlaut waffles on Hoctac and Zulfy, yet from his perspective if there's scum outside hood it can only be Clidd or BS and he townreads Clidd. Paired with BS' scum equity it should be a very clear best lynch for him.

[Umlaut]

I am the one who produced what I still consider compelling evidence that Ircher would happily create a setup with all three scum in the neighborhood. If Zulfy is scum (and at this point by my PoE he has to be), then by lynching him we know 100% whether B.S. is a traitor just by whether the game ends then and there.

It seems like you find it hard to believe that setup could exist; I don't.

[Auro]

Provide me the evidence again?

[Zulfy]

Can you share the process of that P o E pal.

[Auro]

I find it hard to believe because town strategy given Quick's information is outed, even from a composition-agnostic position, would be bad for 3-hood-scum.

[Zulfy]

Lynching in the hood today is balls

[Zulfy]

Though I'm honestly feeling better about the Zulfy option the more he posts things like 2096.

No but really: did you read his posts above me dude

[Umlaut]

Auro: look at Ircher's micro normal review, July 2018. The setup he initially proposed was:

Role List:

1. Town Mason
2. Town Informed Mason (Is informed that there is at least one neighborhood in this game)
3. Vanilla Townie
4. Vanilla Townie
5. Vanilla Townie
6. Vanilla Townie
7. Vanilla Townie
8. Mafia Neighbor A
9. Mafia Neighbor A

Other Info:

1. All threads have daytalk.
2. Yes, the mafia are neighbors with each other.

The reviewer's reaction:

I'm very skeptical that this idea would work.

I doubt many towns would even consider lynching the other neighbor after the first one flipped mafia.

Ircher asked:

That is generally true... Do you think that this idea would ever work (in a micro)?

And the reviewer responded:

I think we MIGHT be able to get it to work if we added a town neighbor.

The issue is that the balance of this game is swung very strongly by the way that it defies expectations, but it's almost impossible to predict how much of an impact people's expectations will have on the game because that varies so much from player to player.

Ircher

still

didn't give up:

Town Neighbor A
Town Neighbor A Friendly Neighbor
VT
VT
VT
VT
VT
Mafia Neighbor B
Mafia Neighbor B

Do you think this would work out worse or better than the originally proposed setup?

But this was shot down too, and the setup was eventually taken in a whole different direction (and in fact not actually run by Ircher at all).

If I imagine myself in the mod's shoes after a review session like this, I see my thought process being something like:

I proposed this setup specifically because I really wanted to have a neighborhood with all the scum in it, and then that was the first thing the reviewers took out. I'll live with that setup for now, but I want to revisit this idea down the road sometime, perhaps in a bigger game such as a mini, where I'll have room for a larger neighborhood as S_S suggested might make this possible. If I give the town the right investigative powers, they should at least have a fighting chance of collecting enough evidence to overwhelm the prior low probability they would assign such a setup.

[Umlaut]

Can you share the process of that P o E pal.

• I'm town.
  
• clidd is town and telling the truth about his results (I'm very confident).
  
• That means, if there's scum outside the neighborhood, it's got to be Blatant Scum.
  
• Therefore there is at least one scum in the neighborhood.
  
• Auro is town (I think).
  
• Therefore the scum in the neighborhood are among {Zulfy, Hoctac}.
  
• Per 2109, a team of B.S. and Hoctac is implausible.
  
• Therefore the only plausible teams are B.S.+Zulfy and Hoctac+Zulfy.
  
• Therefore you're scum.

[Auro]

If I imagine myself in the mod's shoes after a review session like this, I see my thought process being something like: I proposed this setup specifically because I really wanted to have a neighborhood with all the scum in it, and then that was the first thing the reviewers took out. I'll live with that setup for now, but I want to revisit this idea down the road sometime, perhaps in a bigger game such as a mini, where I'll have room for a larger neighborhood as S_S suggested might make this possible. If I give the town the right investigative powers, they should at least have a fighting chance of collecting enough evidence to overwhelm the prior low probability they would assign such a setup.

Two problems with this:

1. It's very likely the same concern would be propped up in a review of the Mini Normal; especially when you up the size of the game. The more you increase game size, the worse it is to dump all scum in a hood.
2. The given town investigative powers would have a high chance of screwing over scum. Imagine this scenario. Quick outs that the hood has 1+ scum. The D1 lynch is in the hood. The 1-shot cop checks one of the remaining 3. The Follower targets within hood on D1,D2, and so on. This plan is

agnostic of hood composition

. The TA generates pseudo-clears. So with individual optimal play unknowing of setup, scum wouldn't really have a fighting chance if 3/4 were scum. Balance wise, it makes a lot more sense to remove one scum and have them present outside the hood, generating a soft inno to the TA, while knowing who scum is: so they can direct lynches.

[Umlaut]

I don't understand how the follower should know to keep targeting within the hood after one scum in the hood is caught, unless he already knows there's a traffic analyst handling the outside-the-hood checks. And if he already knows there's a traffic analyst then, very soon, there won't be a traffic analyst, given that as far as I can see we have no protective roles.