Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

[Auro]

Hello! Anyone wanna give me a quick tl;dr of the game, who I should vote for, and why?

[Auro]

Should I flavor claim?

[Auro]

Why must I answer that?

[Auro]

Hmm, needs more context. I'll get to speed myself in a while.

[Auro]

I am a 1-shot cop with a

claimed guilty

on SirCakez

Interesting phrasing.

Hey there, new people.

The thought occurred to me a few moments ago that the situation is now reversed from yesterday. I highly dought the neighborhood contains all three scum in which case we can safely say there is at least one scum

out

of the neighborhood, whereas there may not be one in it at all. So while we can still scumhunt within the neighborhood we should probably be lynching outside of it.

We have a guilty, so why are you considering lynching elsewhere?

Hello. What is the know mechanical info? Claims etc.

There is a neighborhood consisting of SirCakez, Clidd, Brass and Auro
I am a 1-shot cop with a claimed guilty on SirCakez
Brass flipped scum (goon I think).

Can you provide any links to the first two?

[Auro]

I see BORO has decided to bore us even more with his replace-in to a town slot

Always exciting to see SirFakez in a game!

[Auro]

Clidd, do you have any strong townreads by virtue of dayplay?

[Auro]

Consolidated.

[Auro]

Thanks a lot!

[Auro]

Clidd: Your Persivul read seems to be mostly that he outed part of his role while knowing he was getting force replaced, and that as scum he'd be more conscious of how that came out. After skimming through those posts, it seems evident that it seemed to be a very personal ego issue; in that Persivul, regardless of alignment, would not be considering the costs/benefits of what he was doing. While it's true that scum have to maintain social image, actually doing so versus being toxic involves conscious choice. Scum can also feel unfairly targeted or attacked, and lash out. Persivul is also a powerful scum player who is very adept at faking "scumhunting", so I think your towncase for these reasons are weak.

The Ragman case seems pretty solid, and I think I'll be able to read Looker easily as well, so I'll prioritize studying her ISO.

It's a little interesting that you form a PoE off of that and the hood assumption, but do you have any further conclusive analysis within the remaining slots as well? Is your elimination of everyone

else

in the hood also supported by individual reads? I would like to see your work in these cases too.

Ame: Can you give me minimal summaries behind all your reads? Why do you suppose Looker would be relatively inactive with Fakez as a partner?
Do you not think Umlaut would be capable to come up with a reason? Because that really doesn't sound all that difficult to me - he could've simply gone "lol yes you were faking" and stayed tunnelled, no? Why do you think he wouldn't have simply done so - do you think he feels the need to justify every one of his actions with solid logic? Has this been recurrent behaviour for him throughout this game?

Can any of you sell me on Cakez!scum? Hoctac, I would actually like you to do this first, or link me to a case on him which you find convincing enough for him to be the best vote.

[Auro]

The personal biggest flaw in MBTI, in my opinion, is that the four "dichotomies" they test for aren't bimodal in reality, but are normally distributed; i.e. there are a lot more people centered around the middle point than towards the extremes. When you're ~50, the test buckets you depending on the whether you're slightly above or below 50. Someone with 52 would be called an E, and someone with 48 an I, but two my eyes both would be more or less similar in reality.

So especially in your case, Hoctac, I doubt you fall into any particular "type" strongly - you appear to be a well balanced person

[Auro]

Must resist being charmed by avatars >.>

[Auro]

@Ame:
Can you point me to a previous instance where scum!Looker went inactive when a partner of hers was being wagoned?
That's an interesting assertion on Umlaut: if he was the type of player to be conscious of advancing his game with legitimate logical backing, why would he make that lazy attempt to stay on you in the first place?

[Auro]

Yeah it is a huge flaw! Among others.

Yup! Yet, I think it's a really fun distraction. I think it makes at least a little more sense than Buzzfeed character quizzes though. The Office quiz said I'm

RYAN

of all people multiple times, I hate it.

[Auro]

So your Michael Scott account is just a massive lie??

No! Buzzfeed just sucks. Of course Michael Scott is the correct answer!

[Auro]

Thanks for the links!
The point I'm getting at is that scum players who are conscious of being logically coherent also devote energy into maintaining that logical flow before they make a move. It would be odd for such scum to lazily sit somewhere, and then say "whoops, I guess I was wrong then" and shift gears suddenly without justifying their earlier move. Hence, I'd say that this inconsistent-ish behavior from "logic-conscious" scum would actually be a mild towntell!

[Auro]

I'm a heavily data (especially meta) based player. To me, there are only two ways to consistently accurately identify alignments: (1) force players into a situation where they must act spontaneously, novelly, or in their own self-interest; or (2) come to understand them. Without either of these, all reads are really just conjecture, almost no better than voting randomly. The majority of #1 happens near the end of each phase and near the end of the game (though I do try to add novelty and disruption into the mix whenever I can). And so, much of the game ought to rely on #2.

WE ARE ALL SO DIFFERENT. We think that other humans think and perceive things the same way as ourselves, but it's far from the truth! And that's the greatest barrier to empathy, the fact that we are all black boxes that assume that all the other black boxes ought to perceive, think, react, and behave in the same manner as we do. Like just look at the variation in mental imagery! From pops who can freaking play a cinema in her head to S_S who can perhaps barely hold an object. This difference alone is sure to cause these two to perceive and respond to the world in completely different manners.

Anyway, what does this have to do with meta? The reason why reads are virtually random when one fails to come to understand a person is that we all have our idiosyncrasies—ways of thinking, reacting, behaving. We are all black boxes and we cannot determine whether action A makes player P scummy without first coming to understand the peculiarities (and perhaps inner workings) of that black box. For example, how did you respond to my impression of Elmo's reactivity? With meta. My impression was based on a recent experience where scum reacted to an RVS joke in a similar manner, but based on the rest of Elmo's play it is more indicative of a personality feature.

Meta is a hard source of data which can be used to unearth subtle variations and nuances in a person's play. I don't use meta as a superficial "P is playing differently here, therefore they are a different alignment." It's more subtle than that. There are certain nuances in a person's play that they are likely not aware of until they are made aware. And those can be taken advantage of until they are made aware (after which they are no longer valuable). Here is an example.

Lol I know you didn't ask for any of this and hate walls (?) but it's my philosophy and I get excited talking about it. And people are always hating on meta when it's one of the most valuable tools of the game. Onto Looker...

:')

[Auro]

I am not entirely convinced that there's any reason to believe a prior likelihood increase from random in the distribution of the hood between 1 and 2. I'm bad at setup spec: do you have any convincing reason as to why you're convinced there wouldn't be? I think I'd inverse what you said: not evaluate the hood *only if* I'm convinced against the idea of more scum being present in it.

[Auro]

I think I used the word "convince" too many times in that post.

[Auro]

Would you be able to provide sample games with 13 players and a 4 person hood with a single scum member inside?

[Auro]

Given your vote's on SirCakez, what's prompting you to want to compromise on Looker instead? (Also, "compromise", interesting)

[Auro]

SirCakez, quick case on Ame?

[Auro]

Ame, did you crumb the result you had on Brass?

[Auro]

I actually townread Cakez, unless Umlaut+Cakez is exactly the scumteam - but I think individually by play he's also town for now. I'll be here tomorrow.

[Auro]

We're in auto, right?

[Auro]

Actually even with traitor, if we finish the remaining scum, they lose immediately right?

[Auro]

Wait, it's Auto even in the edge case that you're scum?

[Auro]

There's still value in finishing the traitor though because of the parity wincon. So if we're guaranteed to hit a traitor in an auto lynch path, it isn't too bad. Plus, since they know the scumteam we'd have very ripe crumbs and associations to spot.

[Auro]

We don't even need to care about Clidd being scum, actually: Clidd, you're locking your claim and results right?

[Auro]

I must say I really like your avatar, by the way

[Auro]

Who does Um have partner equity with the most?

[Auro]

Can I not answer that at the moment, before I discuss things over in the hood?

[Auro]

I have ~~~mild reasons for Zulfy town

[Auro]

Yes, that is why we were discussing the traitor assumption right?

[Auro]

Setup wise it seems like the function of a traitor in this setup is to generate a false positive as a debuff to Clidd's role

[Auro]

It's a little interesting how BS claimed traitor and then changed it

[Auro]

What was the FV's information?

[Auro]

I honestly wouldn't have considered the possibility of a traitor for one second if he hadn't done that.

If it's true and you're town, it would mean a signal that it's safe to go ahead and mislynch you, I think.

[Auro]

{one scum in hood, informed that there's a traitor outside the hood}.
This does sound plausible

[Auro]

{one scum in hood, informed that there's a traitor outside the hood}.
This does sound plausible

Sure. So here, scum in hood knows that Clidd's results are meaningless wrt traitor, and depending on your "associations" might not successfully identify the traitor; BS claiming it would confirm to them that you're town and BS is the traitor so it's not something to worry about.

[Auro]

(I'm not being very critical in my thoughts and it's in free flow so I may be off here)

[Auro]

Blatant Scum is in the unique position where they can do that and get away with it

[Auro]

I honestly wouldn't have considered the possibility of a traitor for one second if he hadn't done that.

If it's true and you're town, it would mean a signal that it's safe to go ahead and mislynch you, I think.

I did put an {if} there my friend

[Auro]

I have no personal read off your posts. If we're in mechanical auto and manage to account for edge cases that would be sufficient, no?

[Auro]

Oh and, wait, Mafia being able to "recruit" traitor, is that Normal too?

[Auro]

I think that the best course of action is to lynch outside of the hood until we hit scum, then ignore it and lynch whatever player is the scummiest.

Interesting post.

[Auro]

If I were part of 2 scum in hood in that universe I'd read that post as a traitor soft

[Auro]

Maybe I'm just paranoia'ing a lot

[Auro]

I think Clidd is scum.

Why so?
Hmm if he's alive he won't get any more useful results on an Umlaut lynch

[Auro]

We can treat Looker as an IC. Agree?

[Auro]

If Clidd is scum the setup would be too scumsided, right?

[Auro]

Ideal play for the Follower and 1-shot cop given FV informed town seems to be to keep targeting outside hood while town lynched in hood to catch scum, in a vacuum

[Auro]

Okay, but can you explain?

[Auro]

I could deduce that much

[Auro]

What do you think of the setup if he's goon fakeclaiming?

[Auro]

Auto means "automatic win", i.e a guaranteed win for town in every possible scum configuration.

I don't think dreamer is a role? Who claimed it?

[Auro]

Why so? TA + Traitor makes sense to me since Traitor's a false positive, and there is the fact that if you lynch all scum without the traitor, town win, no?

[Auro]

I'll be here to talk more tomorrow.

[Auro]

Zulfy, Auro, has Hoctac been any more active in the neighborhood than he has been in here today?

Nope! There was only a little discussion from any of us in the hood.

[Auro]

It does sound, but considering the claims outside the hood and optimal independent D1 PR play in a vacuum, it would be balanced against the scumteam.

[Auro]

But the claims are coming from scum

Yes, but if all scum in hood, the claims would have to be true.
Quick ideally should have outed the information immediately. Town PRs should have targeted purely within the hood, regardless of what the hood mechanic is. Given the optimal play uninformed of hood composition, 3 scum in hood to begin with would've been pretty bad for them.

[Auro]

By "town PRs" do you just mean B.S.? Because Ame

did

target in the nhood, and it wouldn't make any sense for a traffic analyst to target in the nhood.

TA targets outside, obviously. BS and Ame. BS keeps targeting within the hood (Follower has higher chances of catching a scumteam when scum are lynched) and Ame gets a free result inside the hood with 75% accuracy while the TA keeps generating innos - seems a little overpowered, no?

[Auro]

We can't lynch in the hood.

Justify?

[Auro]

Summarize into a sentence, please?
Your play today has been a bit... erratic.

[Auro]

Umlaut+Zulfy
BS+Hoctac

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

Hoctac's conveniently ignoring the push on BS.

[Auro]

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Although here it's a non mechanical auto, lynching the wrong slot (50%) will leave LyLo to be influenced by scum manipulation. So, we should be lynching the highest equity scum slot within those four, and then lynch their associated partner.

[Auro]

So Zulfy in the hood said that Clidd was "pretty obviously town" overnight, and retracted that when the day started, claiming that it was a test to see if scum in hood would NK him. I did feel this was townie, but now when pitted with his Clidd push it's interesting.

However, I feel that Blatant Scum has stronger evidence (signaling) from their posts? Interestingly both Zulfy and Hoctac have ignored it, which is what I expect scum in {one scum in hood, one traitor outside} to do - since they obviously wouldn't want to lynch their traitor!

[Auro]

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Can you expand on this?

So if we're in the one scum in hood + traitor outside universe:
1. BS is definitely the traitor
2. Scum in hood would not want to lynch BS

Both Hoctac and Zulfy have avoided any comments on the entire BS!traitor logic and both want to push elsewhere.

[Auro]

I did say it could be clidd and bs

Yes, but you're still pushing Clidd over BS.

[Auro]

For starters, do you believe clidd is town?

It's a bit surprising that you're thinking this: yes, I believe Clidd's town, and from that premise I led to candidate solves.

[Auro]

Umlaut+Zulfy
BS+Hoctac

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

Hoctac's conveniently ignoring the push on BS.

I have stated my positions here, no, Wormboi?

[Auro]

So it seems for both Auro and me the hoodscum could be either of the Other Two.
Hoctac? Do you have a neighbor you scumread more?

Pushing clidd over bs: Yeah and?

What matters is who you want to lynch, not just who you call scum.

[Auro]

No problem. I'm slow most of the time, I'd like to think.

[Auro]

To me, that's functionally equivalent to {BS, Umlaut} replacing both of {Zulfy, Hoctac}. Agree? So, now, the best lynch is a question of who independently has the highest scum equity within the four: and that seems to be BS.

[Auro]

From your perspective it seems this plan should win the game in any scenario where clidd is honest.

It will win if I can dictate and force those two lynches; but considering that a mislynch brings us to LyLo, I don't think that will be easy. That's why I need to go for the highest confidence scum, as if we do hit scum it'll be easy lynching their partner.

[Auro]

If I agreed to it, which out of the two would you prefer?

[Auro]

I see the merit in that proposal.

[Auro]

Umlaut, one important question: suppose you were a spectator to this game. Would you say the likelihood of both scum outside the hood is much lesser than both scum inside the hood?

[Auro]

Everything aside, you guys are fun to play with and I'm wishing I'd played from the start.

[Auro]

It's hard for me to say what I would think in that situation

Because my original proposal accounts for both scum outside hood, and yours accounts for both scum inside hood; neither of ours accounts for both. I only then realised you might be cleverly misleading me here.

[Auro]

I'm not ruling it out - my desired lynch (BS) covers that. Note that after a BS scumflip we have two shots at finding scum.

[Auro]

If you think

both

Hoctac and Zulfy appear to be avoiding commentary on B.S., how do you rule out {B.S., Zulfy} as a solve?

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Can you expand on this?

So if we're in the one scum in hood + traitor outside universe:
1. BS is definitely the traitor
2. Scum in hood would not want to lynch BS

Both Hoctac and Zulfy have avoided any comments on the entire BS!traitor logic and both want to push elsewhere.

It's a bit worrying that you already asked this, and I answered it, Umlaut...

I do need to go to bed right now, will be back in the morning.

[Auro]

A little interesting that Umlaut waffles on Hoctac and Zulfy, yet from his perspective if there's scum outside hood it can only be Clidd or BS and he townreads Clidd. Paired with BS' scum equity it should be a very clear best lynch for him.

[Auro]

Provide me the evidence again?

[Auro]

I find it hard to believe because town strategy given Quick's information is outed, even from a composition-agnostic position, would be bad for 3-hood-scum.

[Auro]

If I imagine myself in the mod's shoes after a review session like this, I see my thought process being something like: I proposed this setup specifically because I really wanted to have a neighborhood with all the scum in it, and then that was the first thing the reviewers took out. I'll live with that setup for now, but I want to revisit this idea down the road sometime, perhaps in a bigger game such as a mini, where I'll have room for a larger neighborhood as S_S suggested might make this possible. If I give the town the right investigative powers, they should at least have a fighting chance of collecting enough evidence to overwhelm the prior low probability they would assign such a setup.

Two problems with this:

1. It's very likely the same concern would be propped up in a review of the Mini Normal; especially when you up the size of the game. The more you increase game size, the worse it is to dump all scum in a hood.
2. The given town investigative powers would have a high chance of screwing over scum. Imagine this scenario. Quick outs that the hood has 1+ scum. The D1 lynch is in the hood. The 1-shot cop checks one of the remaining 3. The Follower targets within hood on D1,D2, and so on. This plan is

agnostic of hood composition

. The TA generates pseudo-clears. So with individual optimal play unknowing of setup, scum wouldn't really have a fighting chance if 3/4 were scum. Balance wise, it makes a lot more sense to remove one scum and have them present outside the hood, generating a soft inno to the TA, while knowing who scum is: so they can direct lynches.

[Auro]

Because the setup says 1+, so assuming there's likely at least one scum in the remaining three, all the follower needs for a guilty is the scum inside hood performing the kill (1/3 * 1/2 chance if full scum outside hood and 1/3 if scum outside hood is a traitor) in the worst case. Especially if it's a mislynch in the hood on D1. So it makes sense for the follower to keep having targeted from the hood. The only reason to follow someone outside would be if there's evidence that there's only 1 scum in the hood that was caught.

[Auro]

It would be imbalanced against scum given the correct D1 play... that town apparently didn't follow
Quick ideally should have outed this instantly at daystart.

[Auro]

Reundo posting 19 times while present for 2 nights is very bad. Feel free to meta check him.

[Auro]

Note that I haven't said Reundo is scum for flaking, but rather his low post-count while in game. I've seen him play as town much more actively and aggressively, and he did lurk out as scum in Team Mafia.

[Auro]

BS has siteflaked, I think.

[Auro]

They coasted for all of it and avoided talking about brass
No opinion on Umlaut atm

Spoiler: is this what coasting is to you

Hi thanks for clicking on this spoiler, I don't mean for you to read all of this I just mean that the volume of work here is not something I would describe as coasting for all of the day. Excerpts of brass slot mentions in the next spoiler.

Aight, I'm here now. My thoughts on the game so far:

Clidd to me reads pretty obvious town. I didn't really jive with his early accusation of Lucky since it seemed pretty far-fetched, but it did spark a lot of conversation and he didn't let it drag on longer than he needed to, plus he seems thoroughly engaged with the game and has pretty solid reads so far. Umlaut similarly seems like he's actively game-solving with his questioning and commentary here and there, plus I thought his flip-flopping on Hoctac was pretty natural, although he's not as strong as a town-read. Klick I haven't agreed with a lot of his assessments, particularly his stance on Lucky and early SRing of Umlaut, but I do find it easy to see where he's coming from when he lays out his reasoning and reads a lot like an open book. I wasn't a huge fan of Pers early game but I think his catch-up looked towny albeit excessive, and I've agreed with most of farside's takes so far. valoneast is coming off more like newb!town than newb!scum to me so far, and I think his "spitballing" read pretty genuine, although it's not a strong TR atm. Hoctac's tone is pretty hard to read and I'm not quite sure when he's serious and when he's joking, I'm leaning towards him being lynchbaity town for the moment but I'm not putting much stock in that either.

I had early town pings from Zulfy through his interactions through Lucky/clidd thought looking back it wasn't as meaningful as I'd thought and I'd need more from him before I make up my mind. I thought this post from Cakez was kind of towny but otherwise I don't have a strong impression of him yet. Lucky's aggression to me did feel pretty towny at first and looked more like it came from town who was pissed at being misrepresented, but the first sentence of this post does ping me the wrong way. Most of the towny things I saw from Atarashi was their prodding of Hoctac, although I'm not putting a lot of stock in that rn because he's easy to criticize. Their content is OK but seems pretty fakeable by scum. I'm finding Ragman's content pretty underwhelming, and I'm not a huge fan of him prodding other's for their reads whilst not really giving out any himself. I thought this post felt almost like a repeat of valoneast's post (in terms of "I can't read y'all b/c you keep referring to other games", which I don't think is true anyways), and I'm not getting great vibes off of that either. I'm fine voting him for the moment.

VOTE: Ragman Saul Rima

Some thoughts before bed: Lucky's pretty strong town for me since he posted his wall, and that's been solidified through the rest of his posting. His posts and analysis are pretty in-depth and it's not difficult to follow his train of thought, plus I liked how he didn't really hold back in his questioning of clidd, his engagement feels pretty genuine overall. My read of valoneast has also strengthened once some of that newbie-awkwardness started to fade away, I do get the impression he's genuinely scum-hunting and trying his best to contribute / adapt to the game. I was worried Pers's burst of activity / actual scum-hunting would only be a one-time thing, and his pointless pop-in really doesn't help with that. I'm pretty underwhelmed with brassherald's replace-in, there's a lot of fluff in there and what game-relevant content in there isn't very fleshed out, and it also doesn't help that their predecessor wasn't great either. I'm not thrilled with Zulfy's disappearance but I don't think it's AI. I'm pretty confused by the wagon on Klick as his play so far seems pretty town-motivated, and I don't feel great about most of the players on it except SirCakez to some extent. I was hoping Ragman would give some more content upon his pop-in, but I'm pretty underwhelmed.

@Ragman, what are you scum-reading Klick for other than what you mentioned when you first posted?

@Klick I can mostly jive with your reads list but why did clidd drop down in your reads? His posting has been pretty consistent to me so far.

This game's been moving a lot faster than I anticipated, and the constant replacements aren't really helping with that. I'll be around for a while now at least.

I've been thinking about the Klick/Quick slot for a while and at this point I'm leaning more town than scum. I find myself having to make less concessions when analyzing their play from a town perspective rather than a scum one. Like I'm not sure why Klick would want to make post 150 as scum anyhow. It wouldn't really help for town-cred since if anything it'll draw even more suspicion (questions like "why ask Atarashi/Hoctac in particular?"). Calling out them in particular seems very deliberate, and it'd be a pretty notable lapse of judgment for him to go the extent of almost pretending to be an Informed Townie himself and forget he wasn't supposed to know about the neighborhood. Otoh I think it's plausible that town!Klick would either want to give a heads up to the neighborhood or leave a crumb that he is informed (though leaving out Zulfy does hamper this theory slightly). Quick's first vote on Hoctac would make sense if he did indeed know there were scum in the neighborhood, as does his later vote on Zulfy (though I don't entirely follow the progression there), and his earlier paranoia about whether or not Klick claimed also coincides with his later reaction when Hoctac essentially forced him to claim. They could just be happy coincidences and things just happened to line up in his favor, but I'm not seeing it. I do have some issues with Quick's ISO, primarily his weird interaction with SirCakez and him ignoring basic questions about his role this past page (and as far as Klick goes, I did read a part of his scum ISO and realized he had a wider scum-range than I realized), but overall I'm not that concerned about him at the moment.

In terms of Hoctac's case itself, I don't think he really went about it the right way (someone mentioned that he shouldn't have given scum!Quick an out by claiming Informed, which I agree with), but that would make sense considering he's a newbie. I do feel his overeagerness at having caught scum (from his POV) does ring pretty townie, and while I don't necessarily agree with his scum-tells I can definitely see where he's coming from, though I have had to re-read some of the early game thanks to him linking one of Klick's early posts and the shift in tone from his first posts to now is a bit jarring. It almost seems like he's more playful that he was at the start of the game, and I'm not entirely sure how to make of it.

I think Persival's outburst was over the top but more likely to come from town than scum, though I'm not thrilled with Ame's lack of content atm. At first I thought he wouldn't really claim a PR if he were scum until I remembered he thought he was walking out the door anyhow, but I still feel that "fuck it" frustration is a bit more likely to come from town overall.

@Ragman, what are you scum-reading Klick for other than what you mentioned when you first posted?

Too many townreads, I don't see where the confidence is coming from to give farside, sircakez a strong townread so fast. clidd went from good townread (#211) to mild scum (#355), though I believe he made no scummy posts in between. I went from neutral (#175) to scum (#211) though I didn't post in between. I'm thinking it's scum sheeping farside.

I did not like this reply to my post from Ragman from earlier before he rep'ed out. "Too many townreads" feels pretty echoey from what's already been said ITT, and he's had an SR on Klick since earlier in the game yet only comments on his most recent readlists, which hadn't been posted when I first probed him about his Klick read, so that clearly couldn't have been all there was to it if it were genuine. He didn't really have any unique takes of his own and pretty much followed along with the crowd, and while I could potentially see it coming from newb!town I feel like newb!scum has a lot more incentive to blend in with the crowd and not try to make any big waves. Looker's posts haven't improved my read on his slot, and some of his comments don't even make that much sense (IE asking SirCakez "Are Reundo, Farside22, and SirCakez all guaranteed town?" does not make sense with regards to either the Cakez post he quoted, Cakez reads, or his own reads judging by the comment he made about me at the end of that post).

@Looker what prompted the sudden switch from saying you'd vote either Hoctac or Lucky to voting Quick?

Basically at this point my strongest town-reads are clidd, Umlaut, and valoneast, probably SirCakez as well. Lucky's absence is a bit worrying but I understand the need to break away from the game sometimes, I still think he's town too. Hoctac and farside are giving me town pings but not enough for me to TR them strongly, Quick I'm still not exactly sure how to read tbh (and looking through Looker's ISO pulled up this post from Quick which comes off kind of awkward), but they're slightly above null. Ame's also leaning town a bit but that convo with them rubbed me the wrong way. I thought this meta read on clidd was kind of towny but otherwise I don't feel great about brass's slot, and I'm finding Zulfy and Looker pretty scummy, I'll stay on Looker for now.

I wouldn't say Quick has ignored questions about his role. He's been absent since the questions appeared. Also, I still don't see how town!Quick immediately gravitates towards a Hoctac vote over any other member of the hood, especially given that he hadn't read any content yet. I think you have to make far more concessions to say that Quick RNG'd his eventual scumread, and found him scummy every step of the way as town than as mafia.

Those questions were asked before he made that Looker vote, so yeah I would say they were ignored, or at least missed. I could easily see it as just an RVS vote from town!Quick initially (albeit informed since he'd know there were scum in the neighborhood so he'd be more inclined to vote in there), and as Hoctac was especially controversial early on I don't find it implausible that he'd "RNG" into his scum-read. And I'm not sure why scum!Quick would be inclined to be so stubborn about their initial vote that they felt they had to contextualize Hoctac's posts as coming from scum, he could've easily decided to just change his mind or move his vote if scum!him felt it wasn't the best course of action, so I don't find that very convincing.

Spoiler: avoiding talking about brass then

Most of the towny things I saw from Atarashi was their prodding of Hoctac, although I'm not putting a lot of stock in that rn because he's easy to criticize. Their content is OK but seems pretty fakeable by scum.

I'm pretty underwhelmed with brassherald's replace-in, there's a lot of fluff in there and what game-relevant content in there isn't very fleshed out, and it also doesn't help that their predecessor wasn't great either.

I thought this meta read on clidd was kind of towny but otherwise I don't feel great about brass's slot

That's cute, but still doesn't explain what you were scum-reading Quick for at the time, though now I'm also wondering what prompted you to move off of him and onto brass?

I hope with this new information you are able to consider better options to vote on than the Reundo slot. Please try to pay attention to the game that you are playing in.

In the sense of frequency, yes, he is coasting.

Hm. That's an interesting defense of Reundo.

[Auro]

Coming up with the occasional "analysis" post isn't difficult. What they're *doing* matters.

[Auro]

Heyo!

VOTE: Blatant Scum

[Auro]

With the double replace out in that slot

[Auro]

Individual highest equity versus a chance IMO, refer to the case on Blatant Scum; all the way from them claiming traitor to leaving possible signals to their team, and Reundo lurking out wrt posting frequency, and your predecessor pointed out Clidd's TMI as well

[Auro]

We have already gone through all that. Please read the previous few pages.

[Auro]

Would you commit to chain lynching two people in the hood?

[Auro]

Fireeeeeeee

[Auro]

tell me who to vote

[Auro]

I am a dreamer. That is basically a weakened rolecop - I get to know one ability type my target can perform, excluding nightkill.
If I visit doctor, I get protective. If I visit JOAT (cop, doctor), I get protective or investigative (50% for each result). If I visit mafia goon, I get nothing. If I visit 1-shot cop who used his ablity, I get nothing.

N1: Farside - nothing
N2: Looker - nothing
N3: Umlaut - nothing

This semi-clears Umlaut, because a goon is dead and I except mafia to not have >1 goons.

lol

amished tell.. you TRAITOR!!!

[Auro]

it is not a matter of trust

[Auro]

boost ur own ego.

Right now

I'm struggling with a work item

[Auro]

but me and my predecessor claimed two very different roles

Are you talking about the "Dreamer" role because that was bs anyway

(Hhhehh pun!)

[Auro]

okay i am openning up this game with my claim.

I am a town combined tracker follower. These are night actions i got
farisde N1 - didn't visit
looker N2 - didn't visit
Umlaut n3 - didn't visit

Now, I need to read. What is up my bros.

I am a dreamer. That is basically a weakened rolecop - I get to know one ability type my target can perform, excluding nightkill.
If I visit doctor, I get protective. If I visit JOAT (cop, doctor), I get protective or investigative (50% for each result). If I visit mafia goon, I get nothing. If I visit 1-shot cop who used his ablity, I get nothing.

N1: Farside - nothing
N2: Looker - nothing
N3: Umlaut - nothing

This semi-clears Umlaut, because a goon is dead and I except mafia to not have >1 goons.

lol

2 minutes apart

Yes, that you read his ISO before claiming isn't wild, and you specifically read his ISO - so your defense that you'd have to have read the *thread* seems dishonest.

[Auro]

I mean, if I saw the results claim with whatever that "Dreamer" shit was I'd also want to craft a different claim fast enough

[Auro]

it's a bit of a coincidence for him to choose a role with a Follower component, no?

this is correct, he would have also have to seen the follower claim afterwards, so it's possible only if he's lying about the time frame of things.

[Auro]

Uhh how come you don't consider Hoctac?

[Auro]

You said you read D3 thoroughly..?

[Auro]

I reasoned that inspite of the traitor lynch not ending day we go for highest scum equity

[Auro]

If town can commit to lynching both hood members apart from me, I'm down with anyone.

[Auro]

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Although here it's a non mechanical auto, lynching the wrong slot (50%) will leave LyLo to be influenced by scum manipulation. So, we should be lynching the highest equity scum slot within those four, and then lynch their associated partner.

@Micc.

[Auro]

Get someone to L-1, I'll hammer

[Auro]

Oh. Should I hammer

[Auro]

50%

[Auro]

50% between Hoctac and Zulfy
50% between Umlaut and You
10% Clidd

to start with. And between Umlaut and you, your % goes higher because of Reundo's lurk tell, BS' signal posts, BS' "joke" traitor claim, and the hood members' reactions to mine and Umlaut's consideration of BS as a serious possibility - with them ignoring it at first and then both committing to it. Like if they're a team that's pretty play, and if either of them was scum with your slot town I'd expect them to jump on it when Umlaut and I discussed the plausibility of it, especially when Clidd believed it too - that's four votes right there. Why drag it out?

[Auro]

69

[Auro]

If Looker ain't gonna hammer Fire, I'mma hammer Zulfy.

[Auro]

optics are important Fire :3

[Auro]

My optics.
VOTE: Zulfy

[Auro]

If red, we simply lynch Umlaut and Hoctac in sequence.

[Auro]

Because I think 1 scum outside, 1 inside is likelier. Strictly it won't make a difference if we're lynching both.

[Auro]

Then Hoctac.

[Auro]

Traitors auto lose when their goon dies

[Auro]

Yeah, so what prevents you from being paired with Hoctac?

[Auro]

Interesting. Lynching Hoctac is definitely the play today.
Umlaut... You're thinking I'm Fire's partner?

[Auro]

Traitors aren't BP in Normal games, no?

[Auro]

Even if he's traitor, game ends on Hoctac lynch.

[Auro]

Nope that's not Normal, traitors can't be recruited

[Auro]

Idk, but that's on the wiki.

[Auro]

NK Immune Miller vig

[Auro]

Unless... the edge case here is that Hoctac is ACTUALLY a vig, but then that's only 1 scum in initial hood. The scumteam would have to exactly be Micc+someone then

[Auro]

AND, Micc+Umlaut (or so) team would've had to plan a no kill gambit.

[Auro]

I'm not, I'm just recounting the mech edge case. Hoctac did claim vig in thread before to retract it, but this would be his only shot then. It's super unlikely.

[Auro]

Why'd I be hard pushing Fire yesterday then?

[Auro]

Other mech edge case is Micc+Firebringer

[Auro]

Other mech edge case is Micc+Firebringer

u keep throwing out weird combos that makes me want to say i am wrong on Umlaut.

This would be easy endgame, no? A no kill and claim Fire followed Micc.

[Auro]

Just spitballing here, don't know if I believe this because clidd's claim looked quite solid to me but: what if

• Hoctac is scum
  
• Micc is a
  bulletproof
  traitor
  
• Hoctac doesn't realize that and shoots him

How plausible does this sound?

Sure but then lynching Hoctac wins the game anyway

[Auro]

The only universe where Hoctac is not a correct lynch is Micc+Fire, as Micc+Umlaut would mean vig+no mafia kill+BP which is, yeah, impossible.

[Auro]

Right, except look at role sheet and tell me any person would approve the setup ur proposing

Oh, hmm

[Auro]

Ame, Town 1-Shot Cop, was killed Night 3.

Ur telling me. This was the entire town Power. Auro?

Technically, it would be this + the info

[Auro]

Sure but then lynching Hoctac wins the game anyway

Agreed that if we believe it we lynch Hoctac, but solving the game is still good.

Umm, Auro+Fire means I was trying to get my traitor lynched yesterday and why would I do that?

[Auro]

Bussing is a thing if it improves win %
I wouldn't try to get you lynched, lynch Zulfy then Hoctac easy win

[Auro]

also u wouldn't know who ur traitor was.

I mean, that would mean I don't believe you're traitor, and there's a ton of stuff that points there

[Auro]

Wut? I'm for lynching Hoctac. I do believe the setup with you and Micc Scum is underpowered.

[Auro]

Aha.

[Auro]

so with Firebringer faking his result on me, that makes him traitor.

To achieve what though

[Auro]

{1-shot Cop, 1-shot BP full TA, Combined Tracker-Follower, Informed FV that knows at least scum in hood}

And if scum had a Roleblocker, Fire wouldn't have a result if Micc was targeted.

[Auro]

And why not Umlaut as traitor, Micc, come again?

[Auro]

FB traitor claims a kill shot on his partner...

[Auro]

Fire, you'd vote Hoctac right now?

[Auro]

VOTE: Hoctac

[Auro]

Why is that sketchy

[Auro]

Hoctac+Auro

Look at the setup in that case.

[Auro]

I guess it's not

so bad

from your perspective since if you're town you know you're town, but it looks like an attempt to grab towncred by busing while you still can.

Sure. So help bus Hoctac then?

[Auro]

The likelier option is, as Fire says, Hoctac + traitor, but then lynching Hoctac is the correct play anyway

[Auro]

Unless he's BP scum and GAMBIT

[Auro]

[Auro]

Peace ouuuuut

[Auro]

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

Isn't it 4 to lynch?

[Auro]

VOTE: Micc

[Auro]

It's just kinda weird that everyone's ganging up on him.

[Auro]

Micc was gambiting.

[Auro]

Looker, Scumlaut, I think this is a mislynch. Please vote Micc.

[Auro]

You're BP scum, Hoctac is indeed the disloyal even night vig, Fire cleverly claimed the track+follow when he saw Hoctac vigging you. This safely seals in a Hoctac lynch today, winning the game for both of you.

[Auro]

neither you nor Micc is taking the opportunity to hammer.

Micc's already voting there.

[Auro]

You're BP scum, Hoctac is indeed the disloyal even night vig, Fire cleverly claimed the track+follow when he saw Hoctac vigging you. This safely seals in a Hoctac lynch today, winning the game for both of you.

Micc+Firebringer, both voting Hoctac.

[Auro]

Fire is a goon. The lack of kill means they knew Micc was targeted. Hoctac was claiming vig in thread, so from their PoV it's likely that Hoctac was the one taking the shot; and thus, a smart guess.
1-shot Cop + Informed FV + Disloyal Even-Night Vigilante seems like OK balance, although I'm no expert at mechanics.

[Auro]

Clidd was in favor of a Firebringer lynch, presumably thinking that bus would seal the game for him! Especially because of the BP, which protects against the potential vig and allows a No Kill gambit where Clidd is virtually taken to be town.
When Micc replaced in, Micc thought that was a bad idea to bus, but kept the No Kill gambit.

Fire cleverly claimed the track+follow when he saw Hoctac vigging you.

This doesn't sound like you're suggesting Fire merely inferred that occurrence from the lack of a death.

Yes, but you are right that it's a kinda wonky power balance if he is a scum follower-tracker; but the alternative where he's a goon and guessed checks out.

[Auro]

It's a darn clever gambit and a little lucky too, since Hoctac's claim would appear to be nonsense given the lack of kills (unless they guessed disloyal). I'd be OK losing to that, but personally I'd rather go for the win.

and if this flips green do u still want this order?

Then Hoctac.

What happened to this? Because it seems a lot like what happened is Micc didn't die last night like he was supposed to and thus you can no longer expect to push a lynch on me tomorrow after busing Hoctac today.

Re-evaluation. I would know this instantly when Micc didn't die, no? If you were right in Hoctac+Auro, I would instantly deduce that Micc has a result on you, thus making bussing impossible anyway.

[Auro]

I was advocating for Hoctac's lynch today, and egged Fire to vote for him as well, until I began to think over.

[Auro]

Think about the setup in {Hoctac+Auro}: Town is pretty much OP. Do you think {Hoctac+Auro} as scum have any additional powers? What would they be? Screwing around in the hood while we have Cop, Follower-Tracker on our tails and town lynching in the hood because of the FV's information?
Something's fishy, right?

[Auro]

Reminding me of something you did that I found to be a scummy last-ditch attempt at gaining town cred probably isn't going to help me feel better about your slot.

You asked me about my progression in thought, and I answered!
You do realize that gaining that "towncred" in the Auro+Hoctac universe is moot anyway?

[Auro]

I know the universe I'm putting forward is correct is pretty much a violation of Occam's Razor from an outside perspective, but one must remember that these situations are exactly the ones scum would shape the game towards.

@Looker

With Auro holding the hammer you must realize that if Auro is scum then Hoctac must be as well. Vote Hoctac?

Looker's wrongly thinking that I'm scum. You and Looker should vote Micc.

[Auro]

I feel like I'm the crazy one here.

[Auro]

Looker... Umlaut can't be scum. {Auro+Umlaut} means I simply hammer Hoctac for the win. He's town; Micc and Fire are the scumteam.

[Auro]

So this is a vanilla slip. A town PR doesn't make this post at this point when we have already called for a mass claim.

Unless they're intentionally hiding it after having crumbed it?

[Auro]

I wouldn't mind if Looker just hammers here and we lose the game, but I want to claim personal bragging rights when game ends.

[Auro]

Of course you'd say that, Firebringer.

[Auro]

I acknowledged it's partly luck; but Hoctac did claim Vig in a manner that it appeared to be nonsense. Given Micc's BP, you could've pieced that together.

Yes, you performed a no kill, to make Micc appear as soft confirmed town, and got lucky that Hoctac actually used his shot correctly.

[Auro]

I mean, I would be quickhammered if you do vote me.

[Auro]

The other options are moot anyway, no? That's the team Looker was proposing.

[Auro]

I've just finished a game where I "townread" Something_Smart, but expressly planned to 180 on him contingent on a few factors. Soon after I got killed at night I reasoned that he's scum, who only killed me for one reason.

Calling potential scum obvtown is a darn good way of staying alive, so you can nail them later.

[Auro]

Yes, you performed a no kill, to make Micc appear as soft confirmed town

What?!?!?! I said Micc was hell of suspicious for coming out with this "BP" out of thin air!

A planned anti-reaction. Going "oh yeah, right that explains it, noice!!" works poorly and would cause people to recognize it's a gambit.

[Auro]

Gives me the clear and then what? In a Micc scum universe either of us would be the likely lynch after Zulfy flipped green. An inno on me won't change that gamestate. A track or follow would fail, so it's unverifiable.

[Auro]

And this whole "one of the PR is lying" is a new phenomena that I don't see expressed by Hoctac before today.

Progressions are a thing, no?

[Auro]

THAT CONFIRMS NO SCUM IN THE HOOD. THAT MEANS MICC IS LYING IMPLICITLY

True. And it would do nothing today, Hoctac or I would still get lynched inspite of the inno with Micc as scum. It confirms no scum in hood, if you trust Hoctac's claim (and you wouldn't get a result on him, which gives you no reason to believe it).

[Auro]

Micc is indeed lying, explicitly.

[Auro]

his progression is "I changed my mind during the night"

I do not find that scummy...?

[Auro]

I'm glad that you admit it's plausibly real, then.

[Auro]

Moreso than my disbelief in the universe Auro is describing I just don't believe that anything between 2451 and 2501 could have suddenly convinced him that Hoctac was town.

Micc's putting Hoctac at L-1.

[Auro]

If that were the case, I would've done so from the moment Day 4 started, when scum!me saw that failed kill.

[Auro]

luckiest

It's not the luckiest gambit. There's only a small amount of luck involved.
I'll be quickhammered off this.

[Auro]

I have only two votes on me, no?

[Auro]

If it's Hoctac+Micc then I get quick'd when Hoctac and Micc are online
If it's you+Micc as I believe I get quik'd when Micc comes online

[Auro]

Ur still being dumb

I get that you call me that since you're scum, but I'm pretty firm in my belief.

[Auro]

If it's Hoctac+Micc please don't blame me afterwards, it's all Umlaut's fault

[Auro]

If it's Hoctac+Micc

Micc can't be anything else besides a Traitor at this point and we have gone over it a like 13 times!!!!

O yea, in which case I won't be quik'd, but I think they could prolly just go for it anyway. Idk.