I like votatos idea. We have 1 block, 1 daykill and 1 nightkill to work with
In post 1697, midwaybear wrote:I guess votato is conf town due to the madonna protect. I think we can safely say that all of our PRs+popo+me are town. That leaves alor, word, and madonna. This is good?
No. 7po is not confirmed in the slightest. I checked ur case; u claimed to be baiting norway into contradiction, but u ended as one of the most suspicious players at D3. U could simply have done nothing that night JUST to claim vt.
Not only that, the way u handled it dsnt feel like u were hunting for a contradiction. Being a vt and being able to confirm urself as town, u should have tried to
force
a tracking claim from norway; instead, u roleclaimed
at the slightest insinuation
, and it ultimately didnt amount to nothing. I still think it looks defensive.
We need to choose our targets carefully. Kills r 100% ways of confirming someone; tracking too, but it is odd. Blocking isnt. Prior knowledge of block allows for the scumpartner to perform the kill instead, even if he was vigged.
If we look at cold facts, and assume everyone who claimed is telling the truth, then our true pool is {Madonna, Midwaybear, Word321, 7po, Aloratom}
From those, we can choose 2 to kill, but I suggest not disclosing who will be blocked; if we r correct in that there is no scum in the prs (wich is only rly plausible with a shenanigan like a prearranged 2 way claim by norway and albert, or some other 4d chess like that (but at this point im just willing to give up the game if that was the case)), then we have the following scenarios:
1. We kill both scum (10%)
2. We kill a scum, and block the other (10%)
3. We kill a scum, but fail to block or kill the other one (40%)
4. We kill 2 VTs, but block the Nk (20%)->Mylo
5. We kill 2 VTs, and dnt block the Nk (10%)->Lylo
Overall, odds r in our favor. This is assuming everyone will play according to the expectations; for this to work though, it is necessary for the block to be "random" (in the sense it cant be known; not necessaryly truly random); obviouysly we do need to say who dies beforehand, so we dnt end up blocking and killing the same player (And saving from the kill, since it is alien!))
