Open 79 - Nightless Vanilla (Town Win!) before 611

[dybeck]

Dybeck replaces Bogre.

This is true.

unvote

if I was voting, while I have a read-through.

[dybeck]

OK... here's an uncharacteristically cerebral post from me:

Seems to me that all the Day 1 red herrings (Aegor's 'joke', Light-Kun's percentages and the like) aside, we only have one concrete fact - that Sun Tzu was scum. So my thoughts:

Sun Tzu accidentally voted his predecessor straight off the bat. Look at it again in context. It looks like a preemptive effort to derail the new yellowbounder bandwagon (which was at 3 votes and growing). Everyone jumped on the error as the meaningful bit of info here. The fact that he voted so quickly and desperately is the pertinent thing.

FaerieLord and Lowell chimed in to defend him. Could be efforts to nip any bandwagon in the bud, although frankly I'm not sure. I think that they were fronting the idea that his

error

was not, in itself, a scumtell. And I think they were right in that much.

I hate post 162 though. First read-through, Lquiz struck me as horribly scummy. I really don't know why Lowell would have him on the town list.

Light-Kun and populartajo join entirely different, but both plausible wagons shortly afterwards.

FaerieLord switches from defending Sun to jumping on his wagon. If Sun Tzu had come up town, it would strike me as a scumtell. It seems a little early to be scum bussing though (It was L-3, and other plausible wagons still existed).

Post 179 is horrible. It looks like Gimbo thought he was pushing to L-1 (although he actually wasn't.) To allay anyone's fears that he was distancing, he made a little joke about it. That's exactly what I would have done if I'd wanted to distance at that point.

Yellowbounder jumps on in 180. This

is

L-1. Would look horrible if Sun Tzu were town; less so since he turned up scum.

Populartajo attempts another derailment shortly afterwards. As does Lowell in Post 210. And then Sun Tzu explodes into a fit of scumminess and still Lowell doesn't vote him. Until he hammers after the event, claiming ignorance of the whole thing.

Since I've fingered everyone else, I should point out that Killa Seven's failure to post in the pertinent period has not gone unnoticed - especially in light of the fact he appeared straight after the hammer. IH was absent over the time in question.

It's amazing that so few of you are scum

I like the Lowell wagon, but I think we can pressurise some other scum before we end the day. I'd like to know what everyone else feels about my thoughts. I think we can talk for as long as we want before lynching. It's not as though scum will be picking up any power-role-tells. In fact, we have no info at all that they don't already have.

vote: Populartajo

. Why did you attempt two derailments of the Sun Tzu wagon?

Votecount
Lowell - 5 (killa seven, farside22, Light-kun, Syzygy, IH)
FaerieLord - 1 (Lowell)
sekinj - 1 (FaerieLord)
Light-kun - 1 (sekinj)
populartajo - 1 (dybeck)
Not voting: populartajo
6 to lynch.

[dybeck]

I'm adding dybeck to my town list.

Thank heavens. Nobody will suspect me now. Who else is on your town list?

Yup. Sun Tzu makes my town list.

Oh yeah. Your 'town list'.

[dybeck]

I'm starting to see why people are dropping out of this game so fast. There's a real shortage of insight round here.

mod:

can we have prods on populartajo and killa seven? Their lurking is bothering me and they need to be called on it.

Lowell... if conversation dries up completely, I'm gonna hammer you. If you have any last defence to mount, you might want to do it now. I normally try to drag days out as long as possible but, as Farside pointed out, there's no real advantage in doing that in a nightless game.

[dybeck]

It might help to stimulate some discussion if everyone posted a similar list?

TOWN LIST:
Dybeck
FaerieLord
farside

?? LIST:
IH
Light-kun
Syzygy
yellowbounder

Prob. SCUM LIST:
killa seven
Lowell
populartajo

[dybeck]

Could someone restate the case on FaerieLord? He looks pretty town to me :/

[dybeck]

There are 4 Mafia and 7 Townies.

I find Syzygy's claim to not know the breakdown suspicious in the extreme. It seems pretty obvious to look at the opening posts in an Open Setup to find out this kind of info.

This looks to me like it's going to be used later as part of a "I can't be scum... hell... I didn't even know how many scum there were!" defence.

FOS: syzygy

Elsewhere... I think it's crunch time. Populartajo and killa seven could well be scum, but they're not here. It's pretty pointless voting someone who's not here to defend himself. Lowell, on the other hand

has

posted his last defence and, well, it sucked. I'm ready to get 'er done.

unvote, vote: Lowell

.

[dybeck]

mod: any news on replacements for populartajo and killa seven?

I believe that two of the three remaining scum are absent.

There's an argument that perhaps we shouldn't lynch Lowell until we've heard all three of these players' opinions of each other.

Both populartajo and killa seven last posted on July 19 in my time zone (at 1:17 AM and 2:02 AM, respectively). They've both been prodded, but I don't replace players until they've been gone for five days, weekends counting as one day. If they haven't posted by then, they have until I log back in to post before I replace them.

[dybeck]

i could have swore i just posted.
dybeck i would appreciate it if you not damand i get replaced.

I'd appreciate it if you posted instead of lurking.

Since you're back, though, I have some questions for you. Let's start with "Why were you so quiet throughout the whole Sun Tzu wagon, only emerging with a comment immediately after the hammer?"

[dybeck]

mod: Apparently Syzygy has been banned from mafiascum. He's likely to need replacement.

Thanks.

Populartajo, killa seven: it's really time for some contribution from you both. Last one of you to post some substance is gonna start getting voted.

[dybeck]

To help me with my reread, can you guys reexplain me why the hell am I at the top of your lists?

You make number three on my list because it looked to me like you tried to derail Sun Tzu's bandwagon.

[dybeck]

I'm equally happy with either lynch, but I think a Lowell lynch will give us more information than a populartajo lynch.

[dybeck]

@Dybek: Why do you think we'll get more info out of a Lowell lynch? *Granted, I kind of want him over Pop, but what is your thought process here?

Because everyone's picked a side on Lowell. There are those who think he's out-and-out scum, those who are defending him, and those who are flip-flopping. It's hard to pick genuine town opinion from scum bussing/opportunism without knowing Lowell's alignment.

If he comes up scum, we can immediately look again at people like FaerieLord, who's been defending him all the way, and populartajo, who's been notably silent on the matter.

If he comes up town, we can look again at people like killa seven, who was so notably absent from the Sun Tzu scumwagon, but adamant about staying on the Lowell wagon.

I just think it'll give us a much better steer for tomorrow.

@killa seven: Why were you so quiet throughout the whole Sun Tzu wagon, only emerging with a comment immediately after the hammer?

@populartajo: why did you attempt two derailments of the Sun Tzu wagon?

[dybeck]

@all: Is anyone against BOTH the Lowell lynch AND the populartajo lynch?

@killa seven: Why were you so quiet throughout the whole Sun Tzu wagon, only emerging with a comment immediately after the hammer?

@populartajo: why did you attempt two derailments of the Sun Tzu wagon?

[dybeck]

Actually... I may have been feeding the town some misinformation... i can't actually see two instances of attempted derailment now that I look back

It does look a bit suspicious, to me, the way popular jumped on to the 'next-best' wagon at the time that Sun Tzu's wagon was gaining momentum though.

[dybeck]

Hi. Sorry Ive been busy. Im posting later.

Hi I was proded. Busy times here but posting ASAP.

Ok Im here rereading the game. Im posting soon.

Im preparing a detailed post for later.

Im finishing my post. Be patient.

No. Let's hear it.

unvote: Lowell, vote: populartajo

[dybeck]

sekinj: it's surprising how much of your reasoning i can disagree with whilst still broadly agreeing your main point.

[dybeck]

Does anyone else deserve to go under the microscope today before we vote one of them?

killa seven is scum. But he can wait till tomorrow if necessary.

[dybeck]

Does anyone else deserve to go under the microscope today before we vote one of them?

killa seven is scum. But he can wait till tomorrow if necessary.

Wow. that's a pretty sure statement. I agree that killa is suspicious, but I statements like that without any backing or reasoning included make me jumpy...

Oh never fear. I have plenty to back this up. But I think it's best to wait till tomorrow. We have two scummy lynch candidates who will give us far more info from thir lynches.

But rest assured, he's scum.

[dybeck]

popular wanting to leave to me is a STRONG indication that he's scum.

What a surprise

[dybeck]

Tajo really hasn't made a case or a stand against anyone. If he is lynched and is scum, great. If, however, he turns out town, we have no more leads to go on than we did before, except maybe looking at the people who suspected him (which is pretty much everyone).

Now on Lowell, he has buddied up to Farside (trying to flatter a more townie player?) and has made quite a push against FL. So, if he turns out scum, we can see that FL is cleared for the most part, and can try to conside what his flattery of farside means. But if he is town, then maybe there is something to the FL case, and her trying to buddy up to Lowell was a tactic to get him off her back.

So, again, I think we stand to gain much more information from a lowell lynch today. I think a huge factor is that we don't have to be afraid of a night kill, even though I am convinced that one or both of them are scum.

I agree with this. I'm also not a big fan of lynching people who aren't present to defend themselves.

unvote: populartajo, revote: Lowell

[dybeck]

Does anyone else deserve to go under the microscope today before we vote one of them?

killa seven is scum. But he can wait till tomorrow if necessary.

explain.

Ah... killa seven... welcome back. Now do you think you could see your way clear to answering my question to you?

In case you forgot, it was "Why were you lurking throughout Sun Tzu's lynch, even though you were around to post immediately after the hammer?"

[dybeck]

By the way... I have limited access for the next 48 hours but I'll get a post in tomorrow morning if I can.

[dybeck]

Oh hello again killa seven. I love it when you pop in.

Do you fancy answering my question yet?

It was "Why were you so notably absent while Sun Tzu was being lynched?" You poppped back to post immediately after the hammer, and you were steadfast on the Lowell mislynch. So... just curious to see what you have to say about it...

In the meantime,

vote: BM

[dybeck]

unvote

.

Lynching people before they've even posted is slightly bad form.

Particularly when there are at least two other good candidates.

[dybeck]

I think there are others equally suspicious. Mikebumfire for one, and killa seven for two.

Votecount:
Battle Mage - 3 (farside22, sekinj, Azrael001)
Not voting: Light-kun, mikeburnfire, FaerieLord, Battle Mage, killa seven, dybeck
5 to lynch.

[dybeck]

im waitin for bm to show up and push for my lynch since ckd isnt here.

Hey killa... why were you so notably absent during the Sun Tzu lynch?

[dybeck]

Whatever the reason, it's stalling this game.

[dybeck]

Killa Seven... Why were you so notably absent for the Sun Tzu lynch?

[dybeck]

Being a poor poster I can forgive. Engineered lurking is scummy.

vote: killa seven

until I get a satisfactory answer to the question I've been asking for weeks.

[dybeck]

There are several lynches I like more than a sekinj lynch. His predecessors had some questions to answer but I think sekinj has been pretty pro-town so far.

[dybeck]

the pbpas bring up points that others did not catch. so far two people that I've found scummy have been lynched, and one of them has been scum. If I can continue to get one scum per townie I mislynch, town wins! Since we don't have to worry about night kills, that plan works. Of course I would rather lynch only scum, but even I'm not that good.

Yet you have not been fully towards the tajo lynch. In day one you said "you see the merit in the tajo case, but voted lowell." and it was the same thing yesterday. Not knowing that Tajo had already been lynched, you changed your vote to killa hoping to derail the wagon.

Saying you were trying to lynch tajo is false. You were only following townie belief

This is, at best, an odd interpretation of the facts, FL.

[dybeck]

I think we should give killa a chance to respond before dropping the hammer.

With any luck, he'll do a Sun Tzu style explosion and we can pick up the last scum name.

Votecount:
Not voting: sekinj, Light-kun, Azrael001, Korts, dybeck, FaerieLord, farside22
5 to lynch.

[dybeck]

I think that's a great idea.

I did an analysis after the Sun Tzu lynch and it might be really helpful to see one of the Tajo and Killa lynches.

[dybeck]

I think that's a great idea.

I did an analysis after the Sun Tzu lynch and it might be really helpful to see one of the Tajo and Killa lynches.

Wait, you sound definite that killa will flip scum. Why are you so confident?

Never 100%, but I will be very surprised indeed if he doesn't.