Newbie 2011 - Game Over

[votato]

Spoiler:

mmm, i think we should refrain from speculating too much about people's exact roles, as it only serves scum interests. all we need to do is speculate about who is scum. and putting someone at L-1 is generally not a good idea that early on, but at the same time, it draws a lot of attention to you if you are scum. either way, its a bad play imo, so i dont really know how to sort it without more info.

This post is pretty towny.

AGar is generally pretty aggressive. If its AI, i'd say its town indicative.

Trying to solve the game.
Also have you played with AGar before?

i realize that BM always plays like this, but is it a good excuse for doing so? if deadline approaches, i would like to suggest BM for PL

Why would you suggest BM for PL? I didn't see any post where you explained this (although I might've missed something here).

There has to be scum between AGar and BM. I'm leaning towards BM being scum.

With that out of the way, we should be focusing on players that haven't been pushing the game forwards so much or making themselves readable.

why does there have to be scum there? is there no chance that its TvT?

This post also makes votato pretty towny, since it's asking a question.

VOTE: sleeper

also willingish to go for GWu

This post seems pretty opportunistic.

hmm im leaning towards the scum PT being more likely, but we will see. if you are scum, your partner is probably (in decreasing order) {gobbles, apogee, GWu, sleepersoul}. gobbles would be the most likely

Why did you say this? And where is your explanation?

Overall, I think votato has made some efforts to solve the game, but not explaining things and being opportunistic makes him a bit scummy.
I'd say he's at a townlean for now.

yes, ive played with agar before. actually ive played with a significant portion of the lobby before. ive also played with BM before. BM is always scummy and not someone id want around in lylo, so a good candidate for a policy lynch. also, asking questions is not AI. my explanation for my read on freddie is a meta read. i know freddie pretty well, and know what shes normally like. i also have been all her other mafia games, so know what shes like in mafia. like i explained later, the most likely scumpartners are experienced players who have at least some scum equity. but freddie is probably town. i just want that on the record so if freddie is in lylo its there as a reference.

[votato]

one more time for clarity: the people i picked as potential scumpartners for freddie are the people who i feel could be possible coaches in scum PT. i dont particularly scumread freddie. i just wanted to share a shower thought to give the town some info/context. and its a thought that in certain contexts could indicate that freddie is scum. alternatively, if freddie does flip scum it narrows the potential partner list significantly.

[Freddiethelady]

Spoiler: sleeper quotes

You know, originally my BM vote wasn't that serious, it was just a pure gut-read with a silly justification added on top. But now that I've reread everything, I'm starting to actually suspect BM a little bit.

The amount of activity this early comes off as LAMIST to me, and the overall tone seems a little too paranoid. Too bad he's away for 3 days. Maybe the flurry of activity early on was in anticipation of being away for a few days.

But it's the activity in combination with overall tone. He seems slightly more tense than in the one game of his I've read (newbie game 2004).

So rather than my vote being pretty much random/pure gut-read, it's actually slightly substantiated now. Either that or I'm confbiasing because I want my gut-read to be right.

It's early, so this read is not very strong, but it's the only one I have and I figured I'd share what I'm thinking.

His reasons for scumreading are an extreme reach, and it almost sounds like he is scumreading someone just for the sake of a scumread. However, he does back it up with meta, and high effort is generally townie(not always though). Additionally, it is redeemed by what he said in the bolded part. He sorta acknowledges the read is weak, but that he wanted to share his thoughts. This is definitely town motivated.

3. How upset will you be if you're lynched on Day 1? (out of 10)

How does asking and/or answering this question help town? It almost seems like scum rolehunting.

This is actually an interesting quote because it relates to sleeper talking about scum rolehunting like he suspected freddie of doing. I know in Avalon, it's really important for scum to figure out who certain town PRs are, so perhaps this is why he has brought it up.

I pretty much agree with everything GeneralWu just said in post 94.

It seems like AGar is too eager to lynch BM. To me it would have seemed townier if AGar toned down his scumread on BM, but instead he doubled down with even weaker arguments. I wanted to see some stronger arguments, or a retraction, not a piling-on of weaker arguments. Like, I want my initial gut-read to be right too, but I'm willing to be wrong on that.

Now he flips onto Agar attacking Battle Mage. The argument for scumreading Agar here is good, and this also shows that he reconsiders reads which is also good.

The wiki says Chainsaw Defense is only a reliable scum tell when we already know mechanically that the defendee is scum, and I have to agree. Pretty sure that as an SE, AGar would know/agree with the wiki, though I'm not sure if him bringing it up is AI.

meh some light shade. I don't think this is necessarily scummy even if shading is generally considered so.

Yes, I see your point. It seems like AGar might be playing 'bad' on purpose... the question is, why?

ok this quote is pretty weird lol

Actually his overall game seems fine to me so far (in terms of optimal play, regardless of alignment), I was just referring specifically to his mentioning of the chainsaw defense.

now, Sleeper backtracks and says that he meant Agar's use of chainsaw defense was bad, and not overall play. I'm not sure I buy this, and it is sorta of sus.

There has to be scum between AGar and BM. I'm leaning towards BM being scum.

With that out of the way, we should be focusing on players that haven't been pushing the game forwards so much or making themselves readable.

this progression is weird because he doesn't really explain why he reads BM as scum, and he was just focused on Agar.

Can I hear from you what you think of my vote on you?

Sure. I don't mind your vote on me. I think you're picking up on my over-eagerness to move the game forward.

I am having a general feeling throughout this game that everything is moving too slowly. But this is my first forum mafia game. So I think I just need to get used to the pace of forum mafia.

Also... I haven't addressed the following because I wasn't sure how useful it would be to bring... But I have been somewhat holding back my reads this entire game. Up until now I ~feel~ like the general consensus has been that I'm obviously town. I have a (silly?) fear that by revealing my reads, mafia will know which of them is under the most danger. I do have a tendency towards tinfoil hattery...

I can see how your vote on me is probably coming from a town perspective. I was about to ping you for reads like I did freddie and GG, but your vote on me gave me a slight town read on you. So I pinged the remaining players who I have no real reads on.

This reads as really LAMIST now. Yikes. I don't see scum ever saying that they are a consensus townread in this situation, so this is one of those little moments that make a townread.

I was waiting for AGar to comment on you two being TvT before touching my vote, but sure, I'll change it to you now.

VOTE: Battle Mage

I feel you've consistently been the scummiest player this whole game.

why out of the two did you select BM as scum?

Because AGar seems to agree with me more, and BM was my initial gut read.

If you're town, this is V bad.

I agree that this is bad, but I don't really know how to justify my reads that well because they are mainly based on gut.

Yeah, that was also a bit strange, but Sleeper seems honest about admitting where his game can improve which is townie.

Also why were you "intentionally serving as bait for scum to jump on"?

It's a strategy I adopted from IRL play. My friends all know I don't like playing as scum, and I'm too easy to read as scum. So I play scummy in the beginning to try to get scum on my side and then turn on them. I was always confident in my ability to be read as innocent. This was in an Avalon setup where scum didn't know who one of their members was.

I was trying to do some 5D plays, but I realize I'm probably not good/readable enough to do it here.

lol another weirdly town post from Sleeper.

And then we have the PR Stuff.

Spoiler: stuff

Idk I sorta read sleeper like Apogee from game 2003, but Apogee was a little less awkwardly honest if you know what I mean. It's just that his explanations are sometimes weird, but he is a newbie and this is probably a result of him being used to a different meta.
There are also some quotes I didn't include which have sleeper prodding people for their thoughts which isn't necessarily townie, but still welcome. Yeah, I'm pretty confident that he's town, and I would like for an elaboration on the BM scumread.

VOTE: votato
I'm feeling it again

how did you go from stating some opinions about sleepers posts as some are town-ish, some are largely inexpiable, to voting votato with exactly zero explanation. that's wicked sus to me. please explain yourself.

[votato]

also its kinda hilarious that midway is saying that townies wouldnt say they're consensus townreads, when i have seen midway confidently declare himself lockdown in two separate games when he wasnt locktown at all (he was town though)

[votato]

midway and freddie both get props for their analysis though. even if i dont fully agree.

[Freddiethelady]

also its kinda hilarious that midway is saying that townies wouldnt say they're consensus townreads, when i have seen midway confidently declare himself lockdown in two separate games when he wasnt locktown at all (he was town though)

what's lockdown?

[votato]

locktown*

[SleeperSoul]

After deleting my initial cold hard gut read on BM from my mind, I looked at his iso and I actually liked his pressure on votato. It would be helpful if BM was active right now for me to get a better read, but right now it's leaning town.


I don't mean to be rude, but at what point do we seriously consider GG as a policy lynch for inactivity?

I kind of want to switch my vote to them, but I guess I'll just UNVOTE: Battle Mage for now.

[votato]

After deleting my initial cold hard gut read on BM from my mind, I looked at his iso and I actually liked his pressure on votato. It would be helpful if BM was active right now for me to get a better read, but right now it's leaning town.


I don't mean to be rude, but at what point do we seriously consider GG as a policy lynch for inactivity?

I kind of want to switch my vote to them, but I guess I'll just UNVOTE: Battle Mage for now.

so you currently have no scum reads?

[SleeperSoul]

I guess I might as well VOTE: GG

[SleeperSoul]

My biggest scum reads right now are you votato and midway, but right now I'm more focused on figuring out who I should be sheeping.

[SleeperSoul]

Clarify: my scum reads are votato and midway.

or can a mod edit 260 and delete this one?

[SleeperSoul]

oh and GG is slightly scum for inactivity of course

[votato]

you should be voting for whomever you think is the scummiest, and try to convince others

[midwaybear]

also its kinda hilarious that midway is saying that townies wouldnt say they're consensus townreads

I said the exact opposite.

I don't mean to be rude, but at what point do we seriously consider GG as a policy lynch for inactivity?

I am against policy lynches especially in small games like this. Let's push votato.

right now I'm more focused on figuring out who I should be sheeping.

me

I voted votato mainly because I felt like him pointing out freddie's potential scumbuddies was unnecessary. He's also been mostly commenting on the state of the thread like GeneralWu.

[SleeperSoul]

Okay well since I trust freddie right now based on today's interaction, I'm going to VOTE: midwaybear.

It was her random vote but she's still suspicious.

[Micc]

Votecount 1.07

SleeperSoul (3) -

Apogee, Battle Mage, votato

GeneralWu (2) -

gobbledygook, AGar

midwaybear (2) -

Freddiethelady, SleeperSoul

votato (1) -

midwaybear

Not Voting (1) -

GeneralWu

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-21 22:00:00).

Prodding Battle Mage.

[Battle Mage]

hold up, i'm here. just had to deal with...all my other prods...

[SleeperSoul]

BM who would you vote for other than me?

[Battle Mage]

I need to catch up dude, hold your horses!!

[SleeperSoul]

Horses held!

[Battle Mage]

Spoiler:

mmm, i think we should refrain from speculating too much about people's exact roles, as it only serves scum interests. all we need to do is speculate about who is scum. and putting someone at L-1 is generally not a good idea that early on, but at the same time, it draws a lot of attention to you if you are scum. either way, its a bad play imo, so i dont really know how to sort it without more info.

This post is pretty towny.

AGar is generally pretty aggressive. If its AI, i'd say its town indicative.

Trying to solve the game.
Also have you played with AGar before?

i realize that BM always plays like this, but is it a good excuse for doing so? if deadline approaches, i would like to suggest BM for PL

Why would you suggest BM for PL? I didn't see any post where you explained this (although I might've missed something here).

There has to be scum between AGar and BM. I'm leaning towards BM being scum.

With that out of the way, we should be focusing on players that haven't been pushing the game forwards so much or making themselves readable.

why does there have to be scum there? is there no chance that its TvT?

This post also makes votato pretty towny, since it's asking a question.

VOTE: sleeper

also willingish to go for GWu

This post seems pretty opportunistic.

hmm im leaning towards the scum PT being more likely, but we will see. if you are scum, your partner is probably (in decreasing order) {gobbles, apogee, GWu, sleepersoul}. gobbles would be the most likely

Why did you say this? And where is your explanation?

Overall, I think votato has made some efforts to solve the game, but not explaining things and being opportunistic makes him a bit scummy.
I'd say he's at a townlean for now.

yes, ive played with agar before. actually ive played with a significant portion of the lobby before. ive also played with BM before. BM is always scummy and not someone id want around in lylo, so a good candidate for a policy lynch. also, asking questions is not AI. my explanation for my read on freddie is a meta read. i know freddie pretty well, and know what shes normally like. i also have been all her other mafia games, so know what shes like in mafia. like i explained later, the most likely scumpartners are experienced players who have at least some scum equity. but freddie is probably town. i just want that on the record so if freddie is in lylo its there as a reference.

To be clear, you wouldn't want me around in LyLo cause my reads suck, not because I'm scummy? I could buy that, as my reads do suck. But your claim that I'm super scummy in all my games doesn't stack up with the fact I've never been lynched in a game I started, and only been lynched once in a game I replaced into. Once you understand the BM-style, I'm the towniest town you can get. Calling me a policy lynch is pretty rude, and poor form with newbies (because policy lynching is pretty much crap unless people are actually just nasty and offensive).

[AGar]

I see content! Awesome.

I had a shit day at work, though, I'm gonna skim past mafia today and I'll post tomorrow.

I see the questions aimed at me - y'all gonna have to be patient.

[Freddiethelady]

Okay well since I trust freddie right now based on today's interaction, I'm going to VOTE: midwaybear.

It was her random vote but she's still suspicious.

hold up tiger! lol! you don't have to vote. i threw some exploration-questions midway's way but not because i was prepared to vote him, just feeling him out.

[Battle Mage]

Hmm I'm also getting kind of a similar feeling about SleeperSoul.
At first look he seemed to be a pretty cautious player, but I'm also getting the feeling that he's becoming a bit too cautious.

Also... I haven't addressed the following because I wasn't sure how useful it would be to bring... But I have been somewhat holding back my reads this entire game. Up until now I ~feel~ like the general consensus has been that I'm obviously town. I have a (silly?) fear that by revealing my reads, mafia will know which of them is under the most danger. I do have a tendency towards tinfoil hattery...

This kind of seems too cautious, because the whole point of the game is to make reads and stuff, but this could also be coming from someone completely new to forum mafia who doesn't know as much about the game as the other people.
It might also be because he doesn't have any reads in the first place.

I know this is a newbie game, but there is a lesson here - if you're town, try and be honest and transparent unless there's a good reason for lying/keeping things hidden. "holding back your reads" isn't a great look. Also on reflection, the idea "the general consensus has been that I'm obviously town" is a little...delusional? I can't stack some of this stuff up - if you're paranoid and don't want to share your reads, would you also consider yourself obviously town based on no evidence, which seems to be a very bold gambit from somebody who claims to be very cautious.

He clearly has some reads, as he's been all over the place - suspecting me, then Agar, then me again. The bit that concerns me most is the revisionist history - once I voted for him, he essentially pretended that his suspicion of AGar and townreading of me had never happened and he had a strong scumread on me all day. Freddie makes an interesting point on this later, so I'll come back to this.