Large Normal 228: Bananas - Game Over

[LuckyLuciano]

Top.

[LuckyLuciano]

Lucky

Titus

Black Ranger

fwogcarf

ManateeDude

NorwegianboyEE

Wake88

Uml

aut

Fenraiser

Nah

dia

Sir

Cakez

Upgrading Ranger back to the top of the non-conftown pile. I reread his ISO and saw what he did that make me townread him when I replaced out. It's a universal towntell that I've only used 3 times so far but it's been accurate every time. Downgrading Fenraiser a bit. I don't like his positioning EOD D1. I'm also not a fan of these two posts when put next to each other.

Spoiler:

I'm clearing BR and Umlaut because Drew's push on them felt the same, like they were two sides of the same coin, parallels. I hope to god Norwee isn't scum because then we would be fucked. But I think he's spewed town atm.

This is very scummy progression. BR puts Drew/Umlaut in the same scummiest scumtier. Then BR says he doesn't want a Drew lynch but then he reiterates that he's thinking Umlaut/Drew are scum together. His vote being parked on Nahdia in a lesser scumtier when Drew was gaining traction and a Nahdia wagon was pretty non-existent makes me believe that BR was not actually feeling conviction to lynch the Umlaut/Drew D1.

VOTE: Black Ranger

This is especially suspect because every post Fenraiser quotes as being scummy progression comes before Fenraiser ruled Ranger out as possible mafia.

[LuckyLuciano]

More on Ranger. I think he's being misrepped in trying to avoid the Drew wagon. I think it's pretty clear that he thought Manatee was a better lynch than Drew when he said he didn't want the Drew wagon. Being wrong about a lynch isn't scummy.

More on Fenraiser, his day 2 play feels a lot like looking around for any alternative to a Cakez wagon.

I'm fully caught up now. I'm okay with a Fenraiser lynch today, as I see it has some support already. I think that Umlaut is the best lynch if there's agreement that he's SK. I think that absent agreement on Umlaut=SK, the best lynch is Cakez, as it simultaneously gives the most information and is most likely, along with Fenraiser, to hit mafia.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, we have 3 full days. I don't know why but it felt like we had less time to coalesce.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, Umlaut can be town.

Umlaut can be not-mafia, rather.

If I were Not_Mafia I would just policy vote myself.

Regarding Black Ranger:

I think it's pretty clear that he thought Manatee was a better lynch than Drew when he said he didn't want the Drew wagon. Being wrong about a lynch isn't scummy.

This looks like you're reading a completely different game. Take another look at Black Ranger's stated views on Drew and Manatee throughout Day 1.

Spoiler: A bunch of quotes

I'd want Drew over Bob over Cakez but I also have zero desire to engage the Drew slot

Just putting that out there before I do this

VOTE: Drew

Just in case I fuck up and blank vote to consolidate later today:

because nahdia's bracket reads are popular this game apparently. i'm of no relation.

{Fwog, Osuka, Norwegian}
{Manatee, Puppy, Cakez}
{Fenraiser, Nahdia, bob}
{Umlaut, Drew}
{Wake}

town townlean scumlean scum waketier

Will compromise anyone outside of the townie 6.

Dislike Drew, Umlaut and bob overusing the word ping. I started noticing it when I first "pinged" Drew that apparently everything pings drew. Then suddenly everything pings bob. Umlaut has been enjoying calling things reachy in one liners. It's just lazy and I don't see Drew's initial case on Umlaut (above post) as being real. Add to the fact that I felt like Umlaut was trying to launch us out of RVS by page two I'd like to mercy kill these two slots. I could probably come up with something more compelling but this is where I'm at without making a wall.

If only because we need improved votes, sure.

VOTE: bob

Bob needs to get off Manatee. Whoever is still on fwog should be put on notice.

oh my vote remains on cakez because I think most of his ISO has been nonsense and his reaction to votes on him has not been good esp the thing I pointed out earlier with twisting words

his sr on cakez is fine i just feel like cakez doesn't look for what would be a fight with me as scum. i can see cakez' push in a town light too.

I

really

dislike your "how are your posts not as bad as cakez" push onto Manatee. That's some gaslighting shit.

Not everyone needs 60 posts day 1.

Let's see

we have wake
puppy doesn't really count because their pred did ok, only started flaking their last day
manatee
then there's drew who isn't much below nahdia

well, they're not all scum. if we want to talk about absences then yes it's troubling that we have people squatting on a dead wagon.

Where was this willingness to lynch drew when it mattered? Because some end of day show that you would

totally lynch Drew guys

doesn't mean shit to anyone.

Do you think Manatee is scum, or do you think my brilliant scumplay here is to actively draw attention to myself in order to dismantle a wagon on town at the end of the day?

No I quite literally believed you and Drew were scum. I'm still running the calculations.

He consistently scumread Drew. He consistently didn't scumread Manatee, or at least didn't say anything about it if he did, and certainly didn't say anything positive about the lynch wagon on Manatee. He said Drew and I were scum together, and when I started pushing Drew at the end of the day he said that

confirmed

Drew and I were scum together (but didn't vote him or me(!)).

The only post I could have taken as saying he "didn't want the Drew wagon" was 772, and that's how I originally took that post when I saw it. But Black Ranger himself has proscribed that reading of his own post:

Yeah okay this is all very cool

It's clear I was referring to the Manatee wagon from that post and one I made to Drew later:

I don't want this lynch but I would still do it,

if the alternative is you

, manatee or no lynch, what would do you, drew?

He insists that in this post 'you' was Manatee, and Manatee was the lynch he didn't want (but would accept over a no-lynch).

[LuckyLuciano]

I'll take some time to reread through those interactions. In the meantime, we're not lynching Wake today, so who is your alternative choice?

[Umlaut]

I'm comfortable with Cakez if there's enough support for it. I haven't seen enough support for it yet (and I'm bristling enough at your unilateral assertion that "we're not lynching Wake" that it makes me loath to move my vote).

[Umlaut]

Who do you think is SK if not me? Because not me.

[Black Ranger]

Manatee is the "this" and Drew is the "you". I'm speaking to him in 772 re: his 771.

If people want to fault me for not voting Drew yesterday they can, just don't say that I

said

that I didn't want it. The point was "I don't want Manatee but I would be willing to do it over no lynch" and I was challenging Drew's post where he a) didn't want Manatee b) wasn't willing to vote there. I was probing him on why our reactions were different which I brought up after the "osuka thinks you're scumslipping" post I made in 780. My actions may not have accurately lined up where my preferred lynch:

@Mod: however useless it is my vote has been on Nahdia for several pages

... because I was trying to milk the last of the day, and it didn't help that I was actually trying to work with Drew at the end and get him to explain himself before he left.

[Black Ranger]

Do you think Umlaut is an SK because he has scum motivation is his posts that seem to be independent from Drew or did he say anything in particular that hints SK?

[Umlaut]

Manatee is the "this" and Drew is the "you". I'm speaking to him in 772 re: his 771.

That actually makes more sense than what I said and I believe that is genuinely your intent on writing it. Anyway, the important part is that Manatee was the lynch that you said you didn't want; you never said you didn't want Drew lynched. That's exactly what I was trying to convey to Lucky, thank you for confirming it!

[LuckyLuciano]

More on Ranger. I think he's being misrepped in trying to avoid the Drew wagon. I think it's pretty clear that he thought Manatee was a better lynch than Drew when he said he didn't want the Drew wagon. Being wrong about a lynch isn't scummy.

Alright, I see where I got mixed up. It came when I sat back down at the game. Sorry, there was a lot to catch up on and get straight in my head. Ranger wasn't on the EOD wagon despite casting the first vote on Drew, and that's been called out as suspect. I think his progression is natural. In 400 Titus offered a lynchpool of {Bob, Drew, Cakez}. In 453 Ranger stated that he prefers Drew > Bob > Cakez and starts the Drew wagon. This wagon picked up no steam. Instead a wagon started forming on Bob. He moved to Bob in 567 when it was clear that a Drew wagon wasn't happening. In 679 he unvoted after Bob's claim and he moved to Nahdia in 685. At this time there were 0 votes on Drew (675), and as there was no support for a Drew lynch earlier, it makes sense for him to not go there. The Cakez wagon had 3 votes on it (675) and I would have liked to have seen him address it directly instead of just moving to Nahdia, but he did give context for his Nahdia vote in 687 that is based upon Nahdia's positioning WRT Bob. I'm willing to buy that she was more present in his mind than Cakez due to recency bias. Also, in the time between Bob's wagon falling apart and Ranger's return a flash wagon started on Manatee instead of flowing over to Cakez, which gives Ranger more reason to assume Cakez wasn't on the table. The wording in 772 is weird, but I think I understand it now. I do admit that it's a bit odd that Ranger didn't jump onto the Drew wagon at this point but I'm also under the impression that he was misreading the gamestate and still thought Manatee was the lynch based on 695. In 796 Ranger seems to better understand that a Drew lynch is happening and seems to be gathering support for a lynch without a claim. After saying he'll check back in a few hours in 797 Drew gets flash lynched. I don't exactly blame Ranger for being off the wagon. I mean, I can buy both sides, but there's enough going for him that he's sitting solidly town for me, at least for today.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm comfortable with Cakez if there's enough support for it. I haven't seen enough support for it yet (and I'm bristling enough at your unilateral assertion that "we're not lynching Wake" that it makes me loath to move my vote).

I'm telling you that pushing a Wake lynch today is bad for the town. You can assume I'm talking out of my ass or you can assume that I might know or see something you don't. To take neither stance and instead just wave away my statement is odd at best.

Who do you think is SK if not me? Because not me.

Haven't thought too much on it, as I'm not entirely convinced that there is an SK. I'm mostly convinced that there is no vig.

Do you think Umlaut is an SK because he has scum motivation is his posts that seem to be independent from Drew or did he say anything in particular that hints SK?

I think the argument for town!Umlaut comes entirely from his positioning against Drew. I don't think he's independently townie. I think the Osuka kill points towards Umlaut. I disagree with you that everyone should have known Osuka was a nurse based on his positioning WRT Bob's claim. Maybe I'm bad at spotting PR claims, but that explanation looked a lot like a rationalization made after the flips came out. Did you actually think he was a nurse before his flip?

[fwogcarf]

Oh cool this picked up a little bit

[gobbledygook]

VC 2.6

Fenraiser (1) - fwogcarf
NorwegianboyEE
ManateeDude
Black Ranger (1) - Nahdia
Wake88 (4) - Umlaut, SirCakez, Black Ranger, Titus [ - 2]
fwogcarf
Umlaut
Titus
LuckyLuciano
SirCakez (1) - ManateeDude
Nahdia (1) - Fenraiser

Not Voting

(3) - Wake88, LuckyLuciano, NorwegianBoyEE

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to remove someone from the town.

Nahdia and Wake88 have been prodded.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-24 08:00:00)[/color]

[Nahdia]

buh. prodded.

[Nahdia]

dont have much to add. lucky's logic is fine but we're coming to very different conclusions, so.

willing to lynch wake, i suppose.

[Umlaut]

I'm telling you that pushing a Wake lynch today is bad for the town. You can assume I'm talking out of my ass or you can assume that I might know or see something you don't. To take neither stance and instead just wave away my statement is odd at best.

I honestly missed most of 1153 and only went back to read it after this.

Fine. But your reasoning had better come out at some point.

VOTE: SirCakez

I still don't agree with you about Black Ranger and I don't see how upon finding out a critical part of your read on Black Ranger is just wrong you so quickly found a new interpretation where that part doesn't actually matter and ended up with the same read.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Nahdia, would you be willing to lynch Cakez today?

Pedit: The reasoning on Wake can come tomorrow.

Re: Black, I don't think a critical part of my read was wrong. I think I made my read, took a break, and when I came back was a little mixed up. Keep in mind that I didn't sleep much last night and thought I was in a more rushed position than I actually was.

VOTE: Cakez.

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Sircakez

[Nahdia]

i would, yes.

VOTE: SirCakez

THIS IS L-1

[NorwegianboyEE]

Gotta go fast.

[Umlaut]

Gotta go fast.

Spoiler:

[LuckyLuciano]

While we're here,

dont have much to add. lucky's logic is fine but we're coming to very different conclusions, so.

Why do you think this is? If you agree with my logic but not my conclusions then there must be some step of analysis that I'm missing. What do you think that is?

@Norwegian, do you have thoughts on any of my thoughts now that I've caught up?

[LuckyLuciano]

Oh cool this picked up a little bit

I keep pressing refresh expecting another post from you. Where's it at fam?