Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Bingle]

i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today

Yes. You are. And I think it’s the worst thing for the gamestate.


Pick a couple of people whose flip you think will be informative and flip them.

[Blake Belladonna]

was in the apocalyptic upick dead thread,

Fear me.

[Menalque]

was in the apocalyptic upick dead thread,

Don’t touch your face, man.

Menalque used

infect

on Open 781:JK9++. It was super effective!

[Menalque]

was in the apocalyptic upick dead thread,

Fear me.

Ofhrz, I’d like to report Blake for bullying and also breaking my poor little townie heart.

[skitter30]

Like idm if you wanna wait to see what maria produces today but it would have to be quite something for me to want to change at this point

yeah i wanna see what she says today but i'm leaning voting there, yes

[skitter30]

i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today

Yes. You are. And I think it’s the worst thing for the gamestate.


Pick a couple of people whose flip you think will be informative and flip them.

i know, sorry :/
i'm working on it

[MariaR]

After work prepare yourself

[MariaR]

Okay, let's get this started:

I don’t think the gamestate is hung up on S_S/lilith and i don’t think it has been for a couple of days

Let me stop you right here because this is wrong. We’re gonna run through 2 scenarios here 1 where it is TvtT and one where it is SvT. Regardless of the result it’s nearly impossible for me to be scum.

In the case where Lilith/S_S are TvT the wagon never turns onto me. Ever. Wagons like that are a gold mine of information that scum can use to their advantage. Even if you assume that S_S towned it up then scum would push the Lilith wagon through and then S_S would go right under the light again. The only option here where you can refer to me maybe being scum is if it’s an all town wagon and considering how easily my wagon has made it to this stage and people want to put me at L-1 I’m not so sure about that. However unless you want to assume scum was already on the Lilith wagon (Me/PP/Blake) then that’s just...wrong.

TvS makes a lot more sense considering after S_S did town it up the wagon can disband and go onto me or just sit back and watch from the sidelines as another townie is lynched and then S_S goes back under fire. You can make a bunch of pre flip ideas but without a flip that’s just baseless nonsense.

think you make a lot of sense as scum especially given my earlier point on you suddenly being very invested in the game and not being lynched (possibly a mood thing, sure, and if it is that and I mislynch you for it I apologise but I can also very easily see it as scum you being happy to let the gamestate proceed as it was while town (skitter and I) we’re both pushing town, only to realise you needed to start playing harder once that stopped happening.

So you think I’m lying? Besides the fact that it is outright silly for me to lose interest as scum when I’m losing. (This has never happened before and you can try to prove me wrong but you won’t find anything) I’m a lot more subtle than that. I have no reason to fake a mood to get townread. Even if it is ‘easy’ for me to do so that doesn’t mean it is the correct play. If scum me were in such a losing spot (and it is very hard to get scum me in that spot to begin with) this isn’t the way I would be going on about it. Look at Team Mafia for example.

And idk if you are being bussed? If you are I think only bingle makes sense and it’s actually proving pretty hard to get a lynch on you with people pushing towards lil and S_S and bingle as other possibilities for today.

Who are these magical people you keep talking about besides PP? Also you don’t know if I’m getting bussed as in you can’t think it all the way through?

I think scum is probably avoiding taking a hard stance on you but I’m not at all sold that you’re being bussed based on the resistance I’m feeling.

Scum bus me more often than not because I am never a deep wolf given my rep as scum. You say scum are avoiding a stance on me etc etc but none of this makes sense with your own poe or logic if you think about it for a moment. If scum aren’t voting me at the moment then that makes even more sense considering when I flip town that’s going to make people go ‘oh shoot we need to reset’


Finally, let us talk about this theory/poe that most people seem to agree on:

Finally, if you flip scum I think my theory of the scumteam in (you, PP, Blake, bingle, fb) is more likely to be correct, and that lilith is very likely town. Specifically, if you’re scum I think Blake is quite likely to be scum here, and would proceed on that basis tomorrow. Admittedly, if lilith is scum it would be big and idk what it would mean,

This gamestate? Would not be like this if your poe had 3/3 in it. It is far too calm and scum are just letting themselves get run over at that point. If you think it’s Me/Blake what are we trying to accomplish? If we ML Lilith then we’re both under fire next. If scum were really all in your poe they would be trying to bus and give good interactions. The reason why the gamestate is so normal is because someone outside that poe is a deep wolf and scum. Am I going to push that angle today? No, I don’t have the advantage or sway to do that. Do I think I’m correct? Yup.

you got wagoned and then the other votes spread out and the game went quiet

You said it yourself here. This doesn’t make sense if I am scum with your poe being correct.

You're wrong, and you really need to take a step back and think about this because I am not scum.

[MariaR]

You might wonder why I was so relaxed and now here I am responding to walls and it's simple. I knew if I opened my mouth and said I doubted the townblock with my spot in the game scum can easily turn that against me and town will believe it. I'm not in a spot in the game where I can have an open talk or opinion about certain things while in the threat of being lynched. Taking this dayphase to see if the poe was 'right' or I was correct in theory was the best thing I could do and clearly how this phase is playing out I'm right.

Now then, back to my book.

[skitter30]

I knew if I opened my mouth and said I doubted the townblock

do u have someone in particular in mind?

[MariaR]

Oh if you still think I'm scum after all that feel free to vote me I doubt anything else I can say would convince you otherwise. I wouldn't want to waste even more effort trying to work on people I don't think are willing to consider the harder outcomes. Regardless, this has certainly been a journey.

pedit: I haven't put in the effort to go through isos and consider it given it's not my top priority. If I live today or I'm no longer at threat of being lynched? I'll probably go over it.

[skitter30]

so you disagree with the townbloc but you don't know what's wrong with it, is that right?

[MariaR]

You misinterpret my words once again. Not knowing what is wrong with it requires me to read through it and then come to the answer there all town. I haven’t done such a thing. I’m saying scum in the town block makes the most sense with the current way the game is played.

[MariaR]

I’ll be back in a few hours. Hopefully to questions or a hammer. This game is truly draining and I regret tryharding this one, but I am stubborn

[skitter30]

blake u think marar is town?

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

I bet that there ARE scum in this game. I mean, that's a given. Right??

[Almost50]

The problem is no one makes sense as scum with anyone else. I get the feeling we are in 6T and there are only 2 of them, maybe? Could this be why I fail to see a "team" associative tells?

[Almost50]

But if that is the case then skitter is our only TPR, and we are likely playing a semi-mountainous game. Remind me who said it was like 5% we had a Vig? Was it lillith?? Because THAT is a scum claim if we are indeed in 6T.

[lilith2013]

i forgot how to math, i was calculating it as like a permutation (whichever one is order-specific) instead of a combination

[lilith2013]

okay according to my math there’s approximately a 3.3% chance of there being a vig in this setup so clearly i went wrong somewhere

[Almost50]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

Oh, yes it was lillith.

VOTE: lillith

Also worth noting 50% chance of there being a SK goes with scum team being of two but not knowing whether it's 6T or 7T. Either way, scum!lillith wanted to lynch the killing role that's not on her team. I could even buy -in theory- scum shot skitter last night and thus know she is SK not Vig, but I'll be frank: I TR skitter the most here (by play) and thus would go for the less likely scenarios of (a) Scum also shot PB (??!!!) OR (b) Scum holstered to make absolutely sure there was only one kill if there is a SK and none if there isn't. (I think b makes more sense than a)

P-edit: Yeah, I know your math was off. I just wonder if it was an innocent mistake or done on purpose. You see, if you are scum (of 2) your mind will automatically concentrate on the SK, and -even more probably- it was discussed in the scum PT when you decided to holster.

Also, why holster? Well, aside from finding out if there is a SK, scum know we have ONE PR at most. That could be a Tracker, for instance. So they wait and see if they can spot that PR if there were no NKs and turn the game to mountainous and not fear being caught by night action at all.

I kno it's just a theory, but it's the one I'm following right now.

[Almost50]

Yeah, that was stupid of me. I just claimed VT inadvertently. Can I take it back???

[lilith2013]

.... so you’re voting me because my math is bad and you think it’s me intentionally miscalculating rather than me just being bad at math?

[lilith2013]

wait what

[lilith2013]

oh i see because you said 6T