Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[skitter30]

i don't want to commit to vigging her cuz if we dont' hit exactly bd i'm functionally suiciding if scum have one

[Something_Smart]

i much prefer blake especially given that she unvoted me when i think it’s pretty clear i would vengekill her

I mean I guess she'd do that as either alignment?

[lilith2013]

UNVOTE: for a minute
ngl i think that vengeful is a bit suspect? odds of there being 2 K prs aren't super high, right?

the probability of a K given another K is the same as the probability of a K given any other role rolled?

[Something_Smart]

No it is not.

[lilith2013]

i don’t think my reads have changed much recently - current lynchpool is probably like {blake, pp, firebringer, bingle, maria} in roughly order of preference.

in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun

hmm i think pp should be more to the right in that list, maybe below fb in the order

this is still my poe

[lilith2013]

No it is not.

uhh...... yes it is?

[Something_Smart]

If I flip two coins, the probability of getting at least one heads is 3/4. The probability of getting two heads, given that I got at least one, is 1/3.

This is a simplified example but the concept is the same.

[lilith2013]

no i mean the probability of a second K given that there’s already a K is equal to the probability that there’s at least one K if we had a game with only 6 rolls

[Something_Smart]

That's also not true, because if I only flipped one coin, the probability of getting heads is 1/2, still greater than the 1/3 of getting two if we already knew there was one.

[skitter30]

blake you still think lilith is scum?

[lilith2013]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

[Blake Belladonna]

blake you still think lilith is scum?

Yes.

I do not want to be vengekilled if I am wrong.

[skitter30]

the probability of 'getting two heads' is different than the probability of 'getting two heads knowing that you have at least one'

lilith you're saying you'd venge blake?

[lilith2013]

the probability of getting two heads if we already have one head is p(2h)/p(h) by bayes theorem, so 1/4 divided by 1/2 = 1/2 which = p(h) for the second flip

[Something_Smart]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

[lilith2013]

the probability of 'getting two heads' is different than the probability of 'getting two heads knowing that you have at least one'

lilith you're saying you'd venge blake?

yes, unless there’s like overwhelming consensus i should venge maria instead

[skitter30]

do you have anything in your iso that would point to you playing as a venge
like is there anything you can point to that would make this more likely to be true, if that makes sense?

[lilith2013]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

it doesn’t really work the same because there’s only two coin flips. let’s say there are 3 coin flips.

the probability of having 2 or more coins flip heads, given that one has already flipped heads, is basically equivalent to ignoring the first coin flip and calculating the probability of one or more heads given that we are now flipping the coin twice. the previous flip has no bearing on the probability of the two other flips. the probability that i am a K, given that skitter is also a K, is equivalent to the probability that i am a K given that skitter is literally any role - the probabilities are independent

[lilith2013]

do you have anything in your iso that would point to you playing as a venge
like is there anything you can point to that would make this more likely to be true, if that makes sense?

i thought an SK was more likely than a vig, i really fucked up the vig probability calc, and have put up very little resistance to being lynched today? tbh i’ve never played vengeful before so i don’t really know how i’m supposed to be playing

[lilith2013]

i don’t really mind being the lynch for today since it means i get to venge blake, and it also gets me out of the way as a distraction. i know i’ve played pretty horribly so far.

[skitter30]

ok:
- i think that lilith's play is probably still scummy
- i think that another k isn't super likely
- if she's scum the venge is irrelevant
- if she's town and lynch her we probably want to optimize the venge
- if she's town blake's unvote is scummy imo

[skitter30]

oh and
- i still think lilith/ss being tvs is bizarre in that gamestate and would most likely be explained by a very small scumteam, including someone on the ss wagon

[skitter30]

i feel like lilith probably is town but that lynching her might be a good idea anyways?
- i can't commit to vigging her due to the potential bus driver
- if she's town we get an extra kill that can't be interfered with
- the ~confusion~ about her slot will be resolved

[skitter30]

@ofrhz, just to check, can a bus driver affect a vengeshot?

[Blake Belladonna]

Wonderful.