Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Battle Mage]

Spoiler:

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

I like this

I couldn't disagree more. I find it infinitely more likely that newbie-scum would prefer to play something down and plead for people to look the other way, rather than properly defending their actions. It's an approach designed to avoid scrutiny. Further, the fact Midari terms it a "slip" pings me, as well as the general language use. "Disturbing"? "infuriating"? It's all unnecessarily emotive language.

[Battle Mage]

I'm doubtful about this Midari wagon. I think the voting from Marashu to Worcester is perfectly well explained by the fact that Marashu got to L-1. Further, I just get this sense of foreboding from Midari's lynchbaitiness that she is scum's designated D1 mislynch. I am open to reading a case of her, but for now I think the Marashu wagon is perfectly functional. He continues to lack engagement with the game and his high-frequency absences do nothing to alleviate that.

I'm pretty happy with either wagon. I don't think Midari is inherently lynchbaity - she's a viable lynch here because she looks particularly scummy in this game. You can't spend your whole life worrying that someone is very scummy but might be a designated mislynch or something. I'm somewhat flexible on today's lynch, but nothing you've said above makes me want to move my vote currently.

[Battle Mage]

As I understand it, there are three possibilities:

1- Choose a mafia and die.
2- Choose a vigilante and die.
3- Choose a victim and die together if visited by mafia/vigilante.

The only problem is that in two of these three scenarios the vigilante distorts the expected result, which can lead to a misinterpretation of the facts, especially in possibility 2. If that could be adjusted, it would be a good plan.

It can be adjusted by there not being a Vig. The person who got Vig can choose to be a tracker instead, and since this is the public plan then it's safe to assume they will/should.

What's with the uptick in activity? You connecting with the game now? What are your reads?

Anything to add Brass?

So there are two roles in one ?

I have a little more time available today. I still have Marashu as a suspect and now my impression of Battle Mage has improved more significantly (as town). Good impressions about Superbowl and Word too.

Excellent, I think that's a pretty good little townbloc, and we can even add Deimos, whom I adore.

Battle Mage - Superbowl - Word - Worcestershire - Deimos

If we all stick together, we should be able to clean this place up, lickety split!

I don't feel comfortable with Deimos on that list. He passes on an analytical confidence that does not seem natural to me.

It's a functional townbloc for Day 1. We can re-evaluate tomorrow if needed - I want a cohesive team around me at all times please!

[superbowl9]

Spoiler:

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

I like this

I couldn't disagree more. I find it infinitely more likely that newbie-scum would prefer to play something down and plead for people to look the other way, rather than properly defending their actions. It's an approach designed to avoid scrutiny. Further, the fact Midari terms it a "slip" pings me, as well as the general language use. "Disturbing"? "infuriating"? It's all unnecessarily emotive language.

I see your point, but I don't think scum want to get emotional when someone pushes them. I do think noob scum would try to divert attention, but I think they would at least try to explain it - I'm almost making a too scum to be scum argument here ig.

[superbowl9]

I am fine with a Midari lynch today, but I think there are better wagons to explore first (namely Marashu). BM you can always hop on the Marashu wagon then hop back to Midari closer to deadline if you like what you see.

[Battle Mage]

Spoiler:

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

I like this

I couldn't disagree more. I find it infinitely more likely that newbie-scum would prefer to play something down and plead for people to look the other way, rather than properly defending their actions. It's an approach designed to avoid scrutiny. Further, the fact Midari terms it a "slip" pings me, as well as the general language use. "Disturbing"? "infuriating"? It's all unnecessarily emotive language.

I see your point, but I don't think scum want to get emotional when someone pushes them. I do think noob scum would try to divert attention, but I think they would at least try to explain it - I'm almost making a too scum to be scum argument here ig.

Yeah but, I mean, she did try to explain it. And it wasn't emotional as in, bursting into tears or getting really mad - just using melodramatic language. Pings me because scum are acting to try and seem townie, and sensationalist verbiage is symptomatic of actors.

I think I'll stay on Midari, and hop back to Marashu if we can't get anywhere here. The view is good over here.

[superbowl9]

Well to each his own my friend

[word321]

Im back from Hiatus

[word321]

24 hgours of fun worktime

[Tuxedo Mask]

So I don't know how to engage with this game, because apparently everything I've said recently isn't even worth addressing from most players. People wanna give me the rundown of Midari and Marashu and why I should choose one over the other?

[word321]

So, the thing with midari.


For starters, lets analyze something that has been quite hammered by midari along the game (this is a selection of posts to show a view of the player, and not necessarily representative of every single one; go ISO her if u want that):

Spoiler:

The lack of engagement with the game, despite there already being content to discuss,

and voting outside the leading wagons. These things are off-putting to me.

I would say sorry but we both know what is happening here. Also why does it feel like there are a lot of just fluff in this game?

I like pressure on ceejay here because he showed up for one RVS vote on what I perceive to be a suboptimal target, and then proceeded to disappear. I would like pressure on pi for similar reasons.

I was going to ask the same thing where did Pii run off to?

Right now I have an issue with 3 people not saying much in this game.

There is nothing to really go off of and

VOTE: Pii
Is the biggest currently. I have a small townblock and just from how events have been happening. But those can be changed later.

But for now if anyone wants to know one Deimos is just town. At least 6 pages in but that could be a biased look as I read thru

Maybe I'm just biased. But the case on Tux just seems a bit reachy and nothing more then a lost person in this game which does strike as different from what I've seen from them.

I think Pii and Wors need to talk more. I agree with Brass I don't like others answering questions that aren't directed at them.


What are your other reads Tux?

what about superbowl?

What about them? I tend to forget about people not actively playing the game. I could say the same for Pii and Wors as well.

The way the conversation has drifted away from tuxedo mask is slightly concerning, though perhaps there is nothing more to be discussed about him.

You can bring it back but I believe they are a null read due to this being their first time out of the kiddie pool if I'm not mistaken. I don't like their pressure that was faux on Doctor Drew and finding out the alignment of one player so quickly does draw suspicious pings from me.

This was your wagon at its peak (correct me if I'm wrong), so I'll pose this question to the group is scum on this wagon. I think that's likely. If so, who and how many? My gut says just one, between Marshu and Word. That or the wagon looked to carry it's self well enough, and scum wanted to avoid it.

I haven't sorted Marashu out yet roughly a null read at the moment. Word does seem scummy for other reasons and I don't believe there was more then one on my wagon. You could say Drew could be scum for the hop back onto it after not liking me posting anime gifs. I'm

Fos: word

For the moment but I'm much happier and interested in Pii due to just not really doing much thus far and raising questions.

Wors, Mara (Not sold on), Pii, superbowl9, I want to hear more from votato as well.

I also do not like that there are 5 people who haven't said much in over a day or two in one case and wonders their takes as well

What's up?

I'd appreciate it if someone can give me an unbiased tl;dr

People be lurking.

People be V/LA

People town read Demios and Votato I think.
Marashu is scum.

VOTE: Marashu

It's self explanatory

We see a heavy, heavy emphasis on Lurkers that spans multiple days and almost characterizes her choices of scum. Being observant of lurkers? Ok, thats alright. But reiterating over and over, and being otherwise deflective with other more active players?
That last point is easily seen. There r generally nominal accusations to other slots (myself included); but they generally lack the combative nature she sure loves to show to the lurkers, and is in principle more reflective. There is almos no direct confrontation, and there are some nominal questions -like what r ur takes and whatnots- withpout a real evaluation on that direction; she hasnt made ANY questions to my slot despite me being a possible suspect twice, and confronted upon small commentaries there is only silence.

Now, everyone nows mafia is a game of confidence and probabilities -I cant exactly say she is outside what could be a town spectrum- but this r precedents and indicatives. Lurkers r universally hated if not in relation to an specific meta (like Votato or CJs); not only that, they usually can take a punch but rarely returns one, specially on the case of newbie slots like Pi and Worc, the most heavily affected. Interesting here that a great deal of pressure on Nash has been dropped-wich is compatible with town if she rly only goes after lurkers, but reflects the core principle of mainly going against them.
And there is a rly good explanation from the point of view of scum to do that; its an exelent way to motivate almost irrelevant wagons that ends in vote dumps, deflect to a player, and apparent aggresivity-wich is usually associated with town- without the associated risks of such a behavior.

So J'accuse Midari of playing it safe.


On the other side, we have reactions to other plyers, and reaction on moments of pressure:

Spoiler:

I like pressure on ceejay here because he showed up for one RVS vote on what I perceive to be a suboptimal target, and then proceeded to disappear. I would like pressure on pi for similar reasons.

I was going to ask the same thing where did Pii run off to?

Right now I have an issue with 3 people not saying much in this game.

There is nothing to really go off of and

VOTE: Pii
Is the biggest currently. I have a small townblock and just from how events have been happening. But those can be changed later.

But for now if anyone wants to know one Deimos is just town. At least 6 pages in but that could be a biased look as I read thru

What's up?

I'd appreciate it if someone can give me an unbiased tl;dr

People be lurking.

People be V/LA

People town read Demios and Votato I think.
Marashu is scum.

VOTE: Marashu

It's self explanatory

L-1

I didn't see the hidden vote from Worchest

Honestly how long are you going to waffle and not put any thoughts down.

VOTE: Worch
It's getting to a point where you are just coasting thru it feels.

Here r some interesting things. The context on the moves on pi r on the height of the first wagon; there is a prior knowledge of intention to go against pi from deimos, and there is a direct transition to a vote here. Now, again, this can be done as town; but this was actually the way the wagon on pii began. Interesting too the first interaction with votato and the self vote-it is indeed a good alternative as scum to do, as it paralyzes a good deal of the traction the pressure on the wagon can make, if not the wagon itself- and the soft tell of townleaning ppl attacking her on votatos first interaction. Again, precedence.
I think the transition to marashu was in the context of rvs, and motivated by interactions more than anything else; by the way she explained it, it is entirely based on Battle Mages first argument. This could be in the context to gather town vibes from other players; and there is also the factor of the L-1. BMs recollection of posts is not actually Marashus ISO and is specially skewed in favor of omitting more srious scumhunting posts; so she may not even have read marashus iso, wich is a bad sign (cause again, she herself is not generating the content, but using from other ppl, and from popular opinion).

Finally, we have a rerun of midaris first wagon when the thing with the L-1 happens; the first reaction is again to reflect to a lurker, wich again cant rly return the punch, on the figure of worc. Her post shows some selfconciousness about the situation, independent of the amount of real or imaginary danger she was actually in. Noticeble is the fact that this r the only 2 instances she actually takes initiative in the formation of a wagon, and coincide with the perception of her alignment being called into question.

So Midari, Jaccuse u of being deflective.


A final conclusion, a part of the behavior can always have some other explanations; shge being a newb (wich I dnt think it is the case by there being evidence of she being an alt); hunting lurkers not beign exactly exclusive to scum or whatnots, there being actual interaction outside that scope (there WAS iteraction with Drew and Tuxedo), etc. But overall I think the series of events r heavily inclined to the scum posibility more than town, more than other players to this moment; mafia is a game of probabilities. So:
Midari, Jaccuse u of being scum.

Noticable is the fact we rly havent heard much about brassherald or cj from her, being in a similar position.

[word321]

So I don't know how to engage with this game, because apparently everything I've said recently isn't even worth addressing from most players. People wanna give me the rundown of Midari and Marashu and why I should choose one over the other?

I swear, this was a coincidence. But feel freee to talk. Give ur take on the game. Who looks suspicious or overly opportunistic?

[word321]

From my part, I think I already have a good grasp more or less on the playerbase.
There is a thing with CJ, Votato, and BM; the three of them play and embrace their metas; that makes them more inherently null slots. But there r some things that can be pointed out:

Potato has had a town vibe in him. Particularly in 500 he was somewhat right; I am not above using apparently town strategies to hide scum intent in it. Particularly, there is a flaw on the plan; clustering. From the point of view of a hider, the odds of getting anyone independent of whom u choose is 3/12 alright. But from the point of view of scum, the same probability is 3/12; but if the hider always choose the one below him, and scum is clustered (that is, there are 2 scum on the list on succesion, or 3) then the odds of a hider getting scum with such an strategy would descend from 3/12 to 2/12 or 1/12 with a clustering of 2 or 3. BMs "alteration" of choosing above instead of below doesnt solve this problem; clustering is independent of that.
A solution would be to do something else instead of a 1-cycle; anything from a 2 to 6 cycle for above or below would theoretically solve the problem if the one choosing it is not scum. Or write a program to select a closed random cycle. Solutions r plenty; but neither of them r as simple. Sine im not scum, I dnt rly care, casue I myself dnt know if there is clustering or not (or the equivalent 2-clustering, 3-clustering, etc), so it becomes irrelevant; but as scum, if in presence of scum, I would have done the same thing.
Potato has seen previously this behavior on me, and I have gone as far as faking probabilities to favor one party; so this behavior in particular is towny in him.
Of course, this is not an excuse for blabering about theory in probabilities, of course! But rly, as scum I wouldnt monopolize my priviledged position going titanic on my own strategy only for pride, specially if it indirectly gives the position of 1 or 2 possible partners. But point for votato! (I dnt think he saw the flaw of the strategy, but the flaw of the person behind it, and that is good, cause he attacked a position that otherwise would have no reason to being suspected upon by a real concern).

About BM, Im inclined to null, with some inherent worries. BM is playing too to his meta, and he is not above building townblocs and whatnots. He can play well the game, and I blv he has done so at least in one newbie in the past from what ive seen. But lets stop for a moment: BM is supposedly good at scum, but always gives suicidal acts and whatnots wich can cost the game as town. U cannot do that if u want to win as scum; in this game, he had the initial no lytnch vote, the joke on votato and thats it. Both r 2 good defnsible positions (wich was applied with marashu, and was lamented upon not being able to apply with on his nolynch vote). This gives me paranoia; I definetly dnt have the townvibe everyone has. I think he is playing to his meta, but otherwise the possibility of being scum is pretty much real. The overall conclusion is a null for now, dependant of further development.

This is part of a series of gives made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

[word321]

This is part of a series of gives made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

This is part of

an ongoing series of reads

made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

[JacksonVirgo]

VC 1.11

Marashu (3)

- Deimos27, superbowl9, Worcestershire

Battle Mage (1)

- Tuxedo Mask

Nash (1)

- ceejayvinoya

Tuxedo Mask (1)

- Marashu

[Midari Ikishima] (5)

- Doctor Drew, votato, word321, Battle Mage, Looker

Wocestershire (1)

- [Midari Ikishima]

votato (1)

- Nash

With 7 votes as hammer... [Midari Ikishima] is at L-2

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-07-07 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Joined Mod iso

Doctor Drew V/LA until Friday

Mod Note

Looker replaces brassherald.
Midari Ikishima requested replacement

[word321]

oh, hey looker

[word321]

should i feel guilty about midari?

[Doctor Drew]

should i feel guilty about midari?

Were you mean to her in way that wasn't in context of playing the game?

If not, no need to feel guilty.

Anywho, in a slightly better midstate tonight. May or may not actually contribute, but I will probably skim whatever I missed at least.

[Doctor Drew]

Word, as someone who is a card carrying member of the 'artist formally know as Midari is scum' fan club, which I see you are as well.

*initiate secret handshake*

But, opinions on Mara wagon? I have only been lightly skimming, but I find it odd that solid players like Deimos and Super are on a competing wagon.

I will say, I need to go back and look at the reasoning behind the Mara wagon, and maybe I have my blinders on, but The Artist Formally Known as Midari seems obvscum.

[JacksonVirgo]

Mod Note

Penguin Power replaces Midari Ikishima

[votato]

PP replaced in? ok that slot is confirmed scum

[Battle Mage]

Yes I'm 99% sure Midari-PP is scum.

[Looker]

reading
UNVOTE:

[ceejayvinoya]

hmm, some of this townbloc is townie. but i dunno what worce did to get into the townbloc... you could make the case that the lurkiness is NAI, but theres no townie content in any of the posts. no gamesolving, nothing.

He is blunt, direct, doesn't give a crap. He is welcoming the heat. I like it. Call it a gut read, but the dude is town for me today.

Seems like this is more of a personality/playstyle thing rather than of alignment.

[ceejayvinoya]

Spoiler:

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

I like this

I couldn't disagree more. I find it infinitely more likely that newbie-scum would prefer to play something down and plead for people to look the other way, rather than properly defending their actions. It's an approach designed to avoid scrutiny. Further, the fact Midari terms it a "slip" pings me, as well as the general language use. "Disturbing"? "infuriating"? It's all unnecessarily emotive language.

This too. Midari seems to be an unnecessarily emotive player.