Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)


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Post Post #1675 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

VOTE: bob

I would like to start here

- I disagree with whoever said bob gets towncred for hardpushing Battle Mage. He was only like the 5th person on that wagon, and I can see bob's vote as a bus that came at a time when Battle Mage as a slot might have been going down.

- bob didn't really give a read on BM until someone asked him in .

- bob also never interacted directly with the Battle Mage/Porkens slot in spite of his scumread there.
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Post Post #1676 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

VOTE: bob

I would like to start here

- I disagree with whoever said bob gets towncred for hardpushing Battle Mage. He was only like the 5th person on that wagon, and I can see bob's vote as a bus that came at a time when Battle Mage as a slot might have been going down.

- bob didn't really give a read on BM until someone asked him in .

- bob also never interacted directly with the Battle Mage/Porkens slot in spite of his scumread there.
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Post Post #1677 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:11 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

I'm not feeling a dunn wagon.

Dunn's posting feel like his towngame - in particular, his confidence in his ability to towncase himself early game. He was wrong about BM, but I liked some of his other pushes he made yesterday, e.g. farside
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Post Post #1678 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:11 pm

Post by votato »

dammit i felt like i had the game solved and then cat scratch comes and makes everything complicated. why are there too many scum?
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Post Post #1679 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:17 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

In post 1669, votato wrote:id prefer no bob vote. out of dunn/bob, dunn is the scum, im quite certain. or im bad at mafia, which is a realistic possibility. i think dunn/mala is the solve and i dont think i want to lynch anywhere else today. i could maybe go for stungun.
Why is bob town? And why is dunn scum?
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Post Post #1680 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by votato »

bob is here to solve the game. as for dunn, see GC. id be very impressed if bob were scum
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Post Post #1681 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:27 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

I'm pretty much caught up

Town

NM, GC
Dunn, votato, Mala
HK50, DrP -- null
Farside/maxwell, bob

Scum

Farside/max - reading farside's ISO, I couldn't really find a read on the Battle Mage slot at all, much less a townread. This is weird considering how they were soft defending BM with by pushing people who were scumreading BM:
- I especially dislike how they were pushing GC and Battle Mage as "not TvT" yesterday and depicting GC's scumread as an overreaction
In post 983, farside22 wrote:GC references:

Spoiler:
In post 581, Green Crayons wrote:I'd find it strange if BM flips scum.

Let's flip BM.
In post 588, Green Crayons wrote:I think BM is more likely to flip scum than town. His explanation for reading scum's NAI meta analysis as AI is plausible on its face. In context though, that plausibility doesn't undermine the other suspicions that point to scum:

-He took forever to provide his AI justification, although he supposedly thought of it ages ago

- He took plenty of time to discredit my suspicions as strawmanning without actually just engaging with my suspicions and providing his AI justification, suggesting delay to come up with a plausible reason after the fact

- He's saying BOTH (1) he had other suspicions for voting votato so we shouldn't suspect him for this thin reasoning (supposed other reasons that he never voiced, so how are we supposed to know that?) AND (2) it was an early vote so we're expecting too much from him in terms of reasoning, which are contradictory defenses that defeat each other. EITHER we should give him a pass because he had other, stronger reasons to vote votato OR we should give him a pass because it was early D1 so he didn't need to have strong reasons to vote votato. It looks like scum slinging whatever defenses he can.
In post 574, Green Crayons wrote:That’s not a half bad explanation.

It doesn’t erase the fact that it took you this long to actually voice it.
In post 575, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 573, Battle Mage wrote:A. That wasn't the only reason for my vote - just one that GC has tried to strawman and attack me for.
Also this is a lie.

You didn’t give any other reason for your votato vote.


BM references:

Spoiler:
In post 343, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 315, Green Crayons wrote:Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.
Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas... :lol:
In post 344, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 236, farside22 wrote:
In post 228, Green Crayons wrote:^^^ I don't see how that makes farside town. It does strengthen Dunn being scum.
I felt the way I felt. I can't help my pings on players.

There should be more votes on Dunn too with your follow up spoilers post.


@NS: Who else are you suspicious of? I see a lot of filler coming from you but nothing stating a scum read. Or even following of anyone.
BM: Hey BM, how are you? Taking some lumps I see......would you mind voting Dunn and we can chat later about if you are scum or town and about play style later?
Thanks!!
Yep yep, usual fare! :lol:

I'm not so keen on Dunn
Maybe he's just not scum
Annie did tell me so
and scum is votato

:wink:

I'm worried about this "play style" chat...are you gonna bash me too? :cry:
In post 518, Battle Mage wrote:jesus… do I even have to respond to Green Crayons 'case' on me? :lol:

It's been repeated ad nauseum (because GC apparently thinks he can get away with plugging something as weak as this instead of actually scumhunting).
In post 421, Green Crayons wrote:His vote on votato looks made up.

First, his vote:
In post 343, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 315, Green Crayons wrote:Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.
Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun
, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas... :lol:
He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:
The fact Stungun doesn't think it's AI, doesn't mean I don't think it's AI. I believe I said, as above, "I like the analysis", as opposed to "I agree with the analysis in it's entirety and share Stungun's resulting conclusion". I did in fact think it was AI, and voted for that reason.

I think if you were town you would have thought about this for more than 5 seconds, and tried asking me why I felt it was AI? Rather than just pretending I didn't, and am a complete imbecile (which incidentally would have been NAI anyway for me :facepalm: ).
In post 469, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 460, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 455, stungun0404 wrote:Also took a weird stance on BM that his vote on Votato "looked made up" in , which does not exactly seem like the best reason to vote BM if you ask me. Also, I do not know if it is a natural town instinct to come to a conclusion that a vote "is made up", just seems like a forced scum conclusion, but maybe I am wrong there.
Maybe if you look harder, you'll see I've been suspecting Battle Mage for a while.

Maybe if you look *even harder*, you'll see why.

And lol @ my justification for voting BM apparently went completely over your head in your pursuit to vote me.
I think this is important, btw.

BM switched to votato. His only reason for suspecting votato as scum is because of stun's meta analysis of votato.

The problem is that stun's meta analysis--by stun's own explanation!--is that it doesn't show that votato is scum. It just shows that he is not town.
I've answered this above - clearly I thought the analysis of Stun was helpful, but didn't agree with the conclusion. And it doesn't seem like you've been suspecting me for a while at all - you voted for me because I voted for you right? :wink:
I'm pretty sure someone of your experience didn't actually buy your own case. :lol:
In post 496, Green Crayons wrote:He seems mildly town.

Let’s focus on BM.

Who doesn’t have a legitimate scum read on votato—BM voted because of stun’s meta analysis that stun said was not AI—but BM voted votato anyway.

Red light scum alert.
Again!? Beating a dead horse here pal. :giggle: I suppose you wouldn't know if my scumread was legitimate or not, because you haven't bothered to ask me or probe my explanation, you've just set up an implausible strawman. :lol:

Even if you were right, I'm not really clear why you think being an idiot would make me scum - inability to read is not something I normally consider AI in and of itself. :facepalm:

VOTE: GreenCrayons (in case I wasn't already)


See there is a lot missing with this strong scum read. It boils down to BM's vote on votato and that's the extent of the reason that holds that wagon so firmly.
BM said a few other things a post later about votato that GC didn't comment about.
Now because of replacement GC is holding onto a weak scum read and pushing no reason's for any other scum reads or analysts of anyone this game.
Which BM calls GC on in the spoiler post above. GC also says he finds the explanation fine but only holds his vote on bm for taking time to respond. Which is NAI.

Mala is like my weakest townread, but here, she's tonally townier than the last time I saw her as scum, where I got the vibe that she was uncomfortable/didn't like playing as scum. She feels more carefree here
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Post Post #1682 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:29 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

In post 1680, votato wrote:bob is here to solve the game.
can you expand on this
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Post Post #1683 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:26 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

This Votato wagon is looking good.

maxwell, I attacked N_M because I wasn't scumreading BM and his posts looked bad.
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Post Post #1684 (ISO) » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:30 pm

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

Vote Count 2.2

Dunnstral (4):
votato, Green Crayons, maxwell, DoctorPepper
votato (2):
Malakittens, Dunnstral
bob3141 (2):
Not_Mafia, Cat Scratch Fever
Not voting (2):
bob3141, HK 50


Mod Notes:

Majority is 6 players.

Cat Scratch Fever has requested an additional day.
Day 2 has begun and will end in (expired on 2020-08-08 08:05:34)
[/area]
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Post Post #1685 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:36 am

Post by votato »

In post 1682, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
In post 1680, votato wrote:bob is here to solve the game.
can you expand on this
Bob is genuinely gamesolving. Bob is kinda just obvtown. Both counterwagons are really low quality. That plus the fact that we have two counter wagons suggests maybe dunn is town
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Post Post #1686 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:37 am

Post by votato »

that said nothing dunn is doing suggests dunn is town
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Post Post #1687 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:17 am

Post by maxwell »

In post 1683, Dunnstral wrote:This Votato wagon is looking good.

maxwell, I attacked N_M because I wasn't scumreading BM and his posts looked bad.
You realize why that looks bad for you, though, right? Please, give me something more than this.
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Post Post #1688 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:13 am

Post by HK 50 »

I'm starting with stungun for obvious reasons in my pov. It's a bit tricky to analyze their ISO due to how they, for lack of a better word, sporadically hopped from different wagons they were scum reading. Normally I would equate that to scum behavior, however, I'm actually having a hard time debating rather or not its unfocused eager townie mindset due in part of how much substance is there for the wagon switches. Therefore, I'm leaving that aspect of stunguns play open to others to read into at their pleasure.

What I did want to focus on is their progression leading up to the BM vs GC read.
Spoiler: stungun early posts on GC vs bm
In post 539, stungun0404 wrote:Also, it's not that I am looking for associatives in the sense of who is working together, but more I am looking to make sense of the game from the standpoint of "the game only makes sense if one of these players is scum", and the alternative makes absolutely no sense.

There are ways to read into that on D1, such as vote pushes for example.

Now I will look into your bm suspicion, GC.
In post 544, stungun0404 wrote:OK, so I am going to try my best to summarize GC's case on BM from what I gather, because I have been having a little bit of trouble interpreting it fully on the surface:
first, GC suspects one of the votes on the original Votato wagon to be scum between me, ns, Bob, mala, and BM, because the votes were lazy on that wagon.
GC finds BM scummy because his vote on Votato looks made up, because BM said he liked my meta analysis on Votato which said what he has done so far is NAI, but because BM thought Votato was scummy for what I analyzed. So GC finds BM to voting Votato there not because he thinks Votato is truly scummy, but instead extending my NAI read on Votato to mean he is scummy? In some ways, I can understand this logic here, but in other ways this seems a little bit of a stretch, so I'm conflicted looking at this reasoning? BM could have just voted Votato on the basis of not seeing anything scummier to that point, so I feel like the better argument would be that he's not properly scumhunting, and thus he is scum assuming your vantage point is town. He simply is feeding off of my read, and interpreting ~ to be scummy based off of that, using my analysis to both shield him and pocket me.

So, yes I will concede overall to GC that is a little bit of a poor push, which is what aided me in concluding that one of you has to be scum because conceivably that push could be an instance of scum not truly scumhunting, but faking it. OTOH, you know I have already felt strong about you, GC, and so from my perspective seeing BM's push together with my read on you, I can't possibly see a gamestate where neither of you are scum.

OK, you also have a fair point in the fact that BM is conflicting himself in by keeping his vote on Votato while saying "last time I saw something like this, it flipped town, but what can you do about it?" That is honestly weird, but in your case I noted the same thing with you voting BM while pushing Dunnstral, so I have seen this in effect from both of you, and thus by this logic too it does not make sense that both of you are town.

I am just honestly stuck in a situation right now where I am not yet convicted enough in BM's scumminess yet to move my vote off you, especially since something you have done ended up being a reason you are pushing BM.

You also made a case against BM here, but I am having trouble understanding this push, so it will take a little extra parsing, but I will attempt to understand what is scummy about it from your vantage point as soon as I can.
In post 546, stungun0404 wrote:Yeah, that's strange, I'm ngl... I will need explanation for that.
In post 553, stungun0404 wrote:Here's a town game of GC's that looks remarkably different from this game of his (compare his ISO here).

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75952&user_select%5B%5D=150
Lots of townreads, and lots of observing good things about players.

Here in this game, very minimal townreads, and a lot of observing bad things about players, which seems shady compared to his ISO from that game.
In post 557, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 192, Battle Mage wrote:Just wasted my time looking at a couple Not_Mafia games, Open 779 (scum) and Newbie 1985 (town). Pretty redundant in both, similar posting style and attitude, slightly more trigger happy with the vote as scum but nothing much to get excited about. So could go either way here, and expect more of the same. :facepalm:

In other news, I've decided HK 50 is actually town, and figured out the most likely reason why Green Crayons voted Dunnstral. So that's something! :cop:
This is perhaps the one post BM has made that makes me reluctant to think he's scum. I got a very weak townlean out of it. I don't necessarily have that post yet with GC, but feel very confident in one of them being scum so that is definitely where I would like to lynch today.

I almost feel like scum doesn't even bother with trying to sort nm through meta (the nullest player there is), but granted he does not come up with a concrete conclusion for it, so it's not like he takes a hard stance or anything. So in the end, I am not sure what I should take from this, although I know that early on it was a reason for a slight townlean on BM.

This, of course assumes BM has experience with nm, though.

OTOH, with BM, I don't spot any sense of urgency in his scumhunting pursuit, and I don't like having that feel.

I'm not against voting him out, and would prefer him over Dunnstral because there is more substance there, as there really isn't much substance to a Dunn lynch except for a few posts made at the beginning of the game that really could just be town making a few early-game declarations based off what they felt which have been taken out of context. That said, I am open to potentially lynching him tomorrow, provided today's flip is scum. I really don't feel confident yet on Dunn flipping scum, especially since there has seemed to be little pushback to his wagon since the votato wagon dissolved. That is, taking away my own push/case on GC.
In post 580, stungun0404 wrote:I find it weird that geraintm and dunn are suddenly coming out of the woodwork sticking up for BM, and dunn has already stuck up against geraintm being lynched, and geraintm weakly against dunn? Anyone else find this strange?
In post 585, stungun0404 wrote:VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.
In post 685, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 579, Not_Mafia wrote:Mage(BM)/votato/Dunn
Close nm, but I think the scumteam is BM-Votato-HK. There is a clear link there, and I'm going to explain what I see there soon.
In post 693, stungun0404 wrote:* His original explanation; noting that BM had another one in , but it did take him a long time to actually voice it.

On another note, I have luckily found enough time the last handful of days to build individual cases with a spoiler each of evidence on why each of BM/Clidd-Votato and HK are linked. I silently gathered evidence after getting a suspicion about them being linked Thursday before I finally convinced myself well enough to question them yesterday. I will submit the cases I have gathered here in a minute.
In post 694, stungun0404 wrote:Let's start with a Votato!Scumteam Case. Through his posts is where it all starts making sense! Even though he was a null read for me, he’s the link that makes so much sense between my two biggest scumleans of HK and BM/Clidd.

The Votato post is easily the longest of the three, b/c there’s the most evidence, so be prepared this one's a bit longer than the others.

There’s also reason to believe Dunnstral is town from this evidence.


Spoiler: Scumteam Case from Votato's posts
Look at this, the first RVS vote from Votato:
In post 9, votato wrote:VOTE: hk 50 i know that you're really an assassin droid
Instance attempt at a distancing vote? Note the wording: I "know" that you are really an "assassin droid".

How can you "know" that he is an "assassin droid" unless you are, in fact, scum with him?

Dunnstral even called this out in , of all players, which completely makes sense from a town!Dunnstral perspective.
In post 20, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 16, farside22 wrote:Town or scum im enjoying hk-50 commitment for posting style.
He's scum with votato, but I'll let him live for being amusing
Dunnstral clarified later to farside that he vaguely saw that as a partner post. I can see it that way too.

Then there is also a reason to link BM with Votato, also based off Votato's posting: Votato did vote Battle Mage early on too. He even voteparked there early on for 25 posts in his ISO (so if BM was lynched that could serve as distancing). However, when it counted most it seems that he has, in fact, been resistant to that wagon. This is in spite of expressing "a willingness to lynch there" in
In post 457, votato wrote:VOTE: crayons there are no current good wagons, my vote is on BM as a placeholder ffs.
Votato votes GC, sheeping me because of my good case, as mentioned in Votato's . However, scum has incentive to use me as a shield to themselves so that they are the ones that are not at fault after a mislynch. Assuming GC!town, Votato can deny responsibility because I was the one who made the push, and him the one that sheeped it.

in one post Votato says, while his vote sheeps me on GC:
In post 555, votato wrote:yeah at this point im fine with a GC or BM lynch.
But then when I flip to BM, Votato proves this wrong because he starts defending BM, and not flipping to vote him with me.
In post 585, stungun0404 wrote:VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.
The very next post, Votato says:
In post 586, votato wrote:Gc why do you want to flip bm if you think he'll flip town?
This distracts away from my BM vote, all the while allowing himself to defend the GC vote even more, and bringing attention to the player I flipped from, GC, calling him out on an inconsistency.

In essence, Votato is defending BM subtly, and has expressed no willingness in his ISO since then to move over to him, even though he declared at an earlier point "I am fine lynching either of BM or GC." His actions suggest otherwise. It suggests that perhaps Votato is afraid of moving over to BM, because that would make a majority wagon, as it would cause a tie in votes between BM and Dunnstral. This would cause BM, in turn, to be considered more seriously by others. Seems like a natural reaction that could happen when one is presented with the chance to put a partner of their's in danger.
In post 695, stungun0404 wrote:Next, a very short case on association from HK50's posts. HK has really not talked at all about either of Votato or BM in a scummy sense, but also doesn't really appear to be truly scumhunting in general. So that is something to keep an eye on.

Further, HK is on the counterwagon of Dunnstral, which could be seen as protecting a potential partner in Clidd/BM.

HK is only voting Dunnstral, per his because "he agrees with what has been said about him." This is a lazy sheep vote. Does that seem like genuine scumhunting to you? Especially since he's voteparked there?

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from HK's posts
HK interestingly utilized my interactions with Votato against me to support cases that are a bit of a stretch about me being scum, in his .

Further, HK also conveniently flipped on his early town indication on me he expressed in , saying that he "felt better about me" because he thinks I used "bad townie logic." But then, suddenly in , in my interactions with Votato, he frames it so that he can make me look scummier AND concludes nothing negative on Votato, perhaps making his partner look better?
In post 696, stungun0404 wrote:Finally, from the BM/Clidd angle, which is long like the Votato one, but all but seals the deal on this scumteam for me.

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from BM's posts
First note: when the Votato wagon was a thing. Guess who was on the wagon? That's right! Battle Mage joined it 4th (after Mala/me/Bob) and did so with very weak reasoning in his , while HK remained on Dunnstral (the majority wagon with limited pushback). This holds true to the theory of scum having to distance on a possible majority wagon on a partner, but also having to join a wagon on a partner.
In post 193, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 191, stungun0404 wrote:I am currently a few pages into reading, but would like to make a request. @HK50, I love your posting style -- so nothing against it -- but could you possibly use less sophisticated words to get your points across? I can understand what you are saying if I really spend time looking into your every post, but it is very hard to read some of your posts on the surface.

Another reason I ask this is because using a ton of more complicated words makes it more difficult than normal to read your intentions. This posting style could be extremely effective for scum to hide behind, because it is an easy way for them to blanket their intentions, because a lot more effort is needed than typical to truly ***ess their motives.

And if you are town, then it should make sense why this could become an issue. Because if people are having to spend too much time looking at a townplayer's posts to unpack their motives, it takes away from their focus of scumhunting, which absolutely could lead us down the wrong path in the long run.
I completely agree with this, his posts are pretty unreadable for me too because of the format. But I also think it's a very conspicuous posting style and a lot of effort for scum to keep up with minimal value, so slight townlean.
Like, if scum, why bother?
Battle Mage also sticks up for HK here. And is interestingly the first and only if I remember correctly to stick up for him there.
In post 343, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 315, Green Crayons wrote:Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.
Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas... :lol:
Here is the weak reason BM joined the Votato wagon: it was after interpreting my NAI meta analysis to be
AI
. That is a stretch. Is it because they are scum partners?

In post 346, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 321, Green Crayons wrote:
@Votato:
are you a pathetic *** scum?
A little harsh, but I did employ some artistic licence :lol:

On serious note,
Green Crayons queuing up Votato for some dodgy self-meta; 2 scum down?
BM sets up a GC link to Votato, interestingly, perhaps to mislynch later if Votato flips?

In post 405, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 389, stungun0404 wrote:Does anyone have experience with scum Dunnstral? I have only played with town Dunnstral as scum to my recollection (2 times).

I know that as town he is not the hardest player to sort, but he still is a little bit tricky. He is easier to sort than nm for sure.

Also, he might get easier by the day, but he also might not. So I am not totally against a lynch there, but would just prefer to keep him in for two reasons. One is he is one of the few players I have experience with, so I might be able to read him better as the game progresses. And two, I do not really find what he has done so far to be super scummy, and if anything the push against him gives me a slight intuition he might be town. I could be wrong there, and I would like to see him post more, but I am not super suspicious.

I do think it is very likely, however, that if one Votato/Dunn is scum, the other is not, and should be ***umed to be town. I just don't see them as connected, as votato has made very little mention of Dunn in his posts and Dunn throwing votato out of the blue as a scum partner to someone... wouldn't seem like the smartest plan if they were scum partners? I mean, that's a little bold, drawing that much attention to you
and
your partner?
I've seen scum-Dunnstral once. He tried harder than this and seemed more engaged in a game where he replaced in maybe 60 pages deep - definitely feels town here. Agree with top half of your post, last para doesn't sound right to me. In my recent experience, scum often make little mention of their buddies to avoid ***ociations being drawn.
But lynching Vot-scum first is the play, and then decide whether to bite for his stungun 'slip'. Gut says probably not
. :cop:
He still is sheeping me on Votato because of my "meta analysis", but he again is the only one to throw out the possibility of Votato and me in fact being scum together, actually taking Votato's "slip" post somewhat seriously, which is so called a "slip" because of these posts from Votato:
In post 391, votato wrote:i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the ***ociation you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong.
plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies
.
In post 392, votato wrote:*** wrong thread.
Finally, the icing on the cake:
In post 404, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 391, votato wrote:i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong. plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies.
In post 392, votato wrote:*** wrong thread.
:lol:

Last time I saw something like this it flipped town, but what can ya do!? :lol:
He uses this scumslip for reason to townread Votato :lol:



I am convinced this is the scum team. I think we should lynch them consecutively.

Also note all three of Votato, BM and GC have weakly sheep-voted people, using players as shields.
Votato sheeping me immediately onto GC, BM very weakly sheeping me onto Votato, and HK weakly sheeping Farside and others onto Dunnstral without bringing any new evidence to the table regarding Dunnstral!scum.

Thus, it seems voting Clidd is the right move here.
[too lazy to fix the 50 spoiler tag issues]

I find the timing and progression to the BM vote during the exchange to be odd. Preceding their vote on BM was posts and which threw suspicions off BM and onto dunn and germ. Yet they not only vote BM afterwards, but also when BM was only at 2 votes and was not a fully established counter wagon yet. This leads me to two conclusions:

-Stungun is town and flopped on their dunn/BM read based off their voting reason (sense of feeling true scum between GC and BM was BM and that BM lacked a lot of scum hunting)

Or

-stungun was scum and preemptively begun shading other players (me, votato, dunn, and germ) in case BM flipped.

A strong case could be made for the second situation as taking a step back and looking at stunguns theory that scum was inactive as a whole pairs conveniently nicely with the pool. However, I think it's not only invailded partially due to the timing of the vote and bus, but also how stungun handled clidd not posting after replacing in. If that was for credit, why go after the most bullshit of reasons to vote BM rather than make an independent case supporting the wagon?

Stunguns switch to voting BM is also lacking a lot of supporting logic which I find problematic if it was indeed a preemptive bus. Typically scum wants to paint a stronger narrative for themselves and struggle over keeping their story in check. Given Stungund posting habits demonstrating what would be a strong ability to mimic townlike scum hunting, it further casts doubt over it being a bus.

Therefore I think the early execution of their vote switch and subsequent ill focus on the slot likely points to town!stungun. I will be reading the later half of the progression since A) I remember them returning to GC being the likely scum again and B) to see in what context they dropped the BM/pork in favor for germ slash other lynches.

First though is my delicious lunch.
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Post Post #1689 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:15 am

Post by HK 50 »

Also if it wasn't clear town read on GC. Tentatively townread on Not mafia since I remember they were pushing pork hard towards the end of the day. Need to check on that.
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Post Post #1690 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:00 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 1675, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:VOTE: bob

I would like to start here

- I disagree with whoever said bob gets towncred for hardpushing Battle Mage. He was only like the 5th person on that wagon, and I can see bob's vote as a bus that came at a time when Battle Mage as a slot might have been going down.

- bob didn't really give a read on BM until someone asked him in .

- bob also never interacted directly with the Battle Mage/Porkens slot in spite of his scumread there.
You do realise that the post you quoted was my stance on SG post. In which he was replying to me about my questions that I had put to him in order to sort him.

As i was unsure why he would push green in relation to the dun wagon. So that i could sort your slot as i was unsure about why SG would flip flop onto green who i saw as town from bm.


And his response was a big part of why i town read him as his reply felt that his movement between green and bm was more sew sawing of a townie unsure rather than scum flip flopping between two players trying to see who they could get lynched.



Was more focused on actually building porkens wagon with my limited time during my working week. As Well as trying to sort those players who wouldn't vote for him.


I would say I learnt my lesson from when your slot was scum under adora. But I think I snapped yet again. where in that game i was pushing your slot hard and because midway wouldn't vote for you. I ended up recklessly voting him lylo without stopping to think. Even though I was sure your slot was scum with both options.

Was the first time that I had ever incorrectly lynched in lylo. Lost before but alas i was dead and no one but the dead could hear me.
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Post Post #1691 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:30 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 1688, HK 50 wrote:I'm starting with stungun for obvious reasons in my pov. It's a bit tricky to analyze their ISO due to how they, for lack of a better word, sporadically hopped from different wagons they were scum reading. Normally I would equate that to scum behavior, however, I'm actually having a hard time debating rather or not its unfocused eager townie mindset due in part of how much substance is there for the wagon switches. Therefore, I'm leaving that aspect of stunguns play open to others to read into at their pleasure.

What I did want to focus on is their progression leading up to the BM vs GC read.
Spoiler: stungun early posts on GC vs bm
In post 539, stungun0404 wrote:Also, it's not that I am looking for associatives in the sense of who is working together, but more I am looking to make sense of the game from the standpoint of "the game only makes sense if one of these players is scum", and the alternative makes absolutely no sense.

There are ways to read into that on D1, such as vote pushes for example.

Now I will look into your bm suspicion, GC.
In post 544, stungun0404 wrote:OK, so I am going to try my best to summarize GC's case on BM from what I gather, because I have been having a little bit of trouble interpreting it fully on the surface:
first, GC suspects one of the votes on the original Votato wagon to be scum between me, ns, Bob, mala, and BM, because the votes were lazy on that wagon.
GC finds BM scummy because his vote on Votato looks made up, because BM said he liked my meta analysis on Votato which said what he has done so far is NAI, but because BM thought Votato was scummy for what I analyzed. So GC finds BM to voting Votato there not because he thinks Votato is truly scummy, but instead extending my NAI read on Votato to mean he is scummy? In some ways, I can understand this logic here, but in other ways this seems a little bit of a stretch, so I'm conflicted looking at this reasoning? BM could have just voted Votato on the basis of not seeing anything scummier to that point, so I feel like the better argument would be that he's not properly scumhunting, and thus he is scum assuming your vantage point is town. He simply is feeding off of my read, and interpreting ~ to be scummy based off of that, using my analysis to both shield him and pocket me.

So, yes I will concede overall to GC that is a little bit of a poor push, which is what aided me in concluding that one of you has to be scum because conceivably that push could be an instance of scum not truly scumhunting, but faking it. OTOH, you know I have already felt strong about you, GC, and so from my perspective seeing BM's push together with my read on you, I can't possibly see a gamestate where neither of you are scum.

OK, you also have a fair point in the fact that BM is conflicting himself in by keeping his vote on Votato while saying "last time I saw something like this, it flipped town, but what can you do about it?" That is honestly weird, but in your case I noted the same thing with you voting BM while pushing Dunnstral, so I have seen this in effect from both of you, and thus by this logic too it does not make sense that both of you are town.

I am just honestly stuck in a situation right now where I am not yet convicted enough in BM's scumminess yet to move my vote off you, especially since something you have done ended up being a reason you are pushing BM.

You also made a case against BM here, but I am having trouble understanding this push, so it will take a little extra parsing, but I will attempt to understand what is scummy about it from your vantage point as soon as I can.
In post 546, stungun0404 wrote:Yeah, that's strange, I'm ngl... I will need explanation for that.
In post 553, stungun0404 wrote:Here's a town game of GC's that looks remarkably different from this game of his (compare his ISO here).

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75952&user_select%5B%5D=150
Lots of townreads, and lots of observing good things about players.

Here in this game, very minimal townreads, and a lot of observing bad things about players, which seems shady compared to his ISO from that game.
In post 557, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 192, Battle Mage wrote:Just wasted my time looking at a couple Not_Mafia games, Open 779 (scum) and Newbie 1985 (town). Pretty redundant in both, similar posting style and attitude, slightly more trigger happy with the vote as scum but nothing much to get excited about. So could go either way here, and expect more of the same. :facepalm:

In other news, I've decided HK 50 is actually town, and figured out the most likely reason why Green Crayons voted Dunnstral. So that's something! :cop:
This is perhaps the one post BM has made that makes me reluctant to think he's scum. I got a very weak townlean out of it. I don't necessarily have that post yet with GC, but feel very confident in one of them being scum so that is definitely where I would like to lynch today.

I almost feel like scum doesn't even bother with trying to sort nm through meta (the nullest player there is), but granted he does not come up with a concrete conclusion for it, so it's not like he takes a hard stance or anything. So in the end, I am not sure what I should take from this, although I know that early on it was a reason for a slight townlean on BM.

This, of course assumes BM has experience with nm, though.

OTOH, with BM, I don't spot any sense of urgency in his scumhunting pursuit, and I don't like having that feel.

I'm not against voting him out, and would prefer him over Dunnstral because there is more substance there, as there really isn't much substance to a Dunn lynch except for a few posts made at the beginning of the game that really could just be town making a few early-game declarations based off what they felt which have been taken out of context. That said, I am open to potentially lynching him tomorrow, provided today's flip is scum. I really don't feel confident yet on Dunn flipping scum, especially since there has seemed to be little pushback to his wagon since the votato wagon dissolved. That is, taking away my own push/case on GC.
In post 580, stungun0404 wrote:I find it weird that geraintm and dunn are suddenly coming out of the woodwork sticking up for BM, and dunn has already stuck up against geraintm being lynched, and geraintm weakly against dunn? Anyone else find this strange?
In post 585, stungun0404 wrote:VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.
In post 685, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 579, Not_Mafia wrote:Mage(BM)/votato/Dunn
Close nm, but I think the scumteam is BM-Votato-HK. There is a clear link there, and I'm going to explain what I see there soon.
In post 693, stungun0404 wrote:* His original explanation; noting that BM had another one in , but it did take him a long time to actually voice it.

On another note, I have luckily found enough time the last handful of days to build individual cases with a spoiler each of evidence on why each of BM/Clidd-Votato and HK are linked. I silently gathered evidence after getting a suspicion about them being linked Thursday before I finally convinced myself well enough to question them yesterday. I will submit the cases I have gathered here in a minute.
In post 694, stungun0404 wrote:Let's start with a Votato!Scumteam Case. Through his posts is where it all starts making sense! Even though he was a null read for me, he’s the link that makes so much sense between my two biggest scumleans of HK and BM/Clidd.

The Votato post is easily the longest of the three, b/c there’s the most evidence, so be prepared this one's a bit longer than the others.

There’s also reason to believe Dunnstral is town from this evidence.


Spoiler: Scumteam Case from Votato's posts
Look at this, the first RVS vote from Votato:
In post 9, votato wrote:VOTE: hk 50 i know that you're really an assassin droid
Instance attempt at a distancing vote? Note the wording: I "know" that you are really an "assassin droid".

How can you "know" that he is an "assassin droid" unless you are, in fact, scum with him?

Dunnstral even called this out in , of all players, which completely makes sense from a town!Dunnstral perspective.
In post 20, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 16, farside22 wrote:Town or scum im enjoying hk-50 commitment for posting style.
He's scum with votato, but I'll let him live for being amusing
Dunnstral clarified later to farside that he vaguely saw that as a partner post. I can see it that way too.

Then there is also a reason to link BM with Votato, also based off Votato's posting: Votato did vote Battle Mage early on too. He even voteparked there early on for 25 posts in his ISO (so if BM was lynched that could serve as distancing). However, when it counted most it seems that he has, in fact, been resistant to that wagon. This is in spite of expressing "a willingness to lynch there" in
In post 457, votato wrote:VOTE: crayons there are no current good wagons, my vote is on BM as a placeholder ffs.
Votato votes GC, sheeping me because of my good case, as mentioned in Votato's . However, scum has incentive to use me as a shield to themselves so that they are the ones that are not at fault after a mislynch. Assuming GC!town, Votato can deny responsibility because I was the one who made the push, and him the one that sheeped it.

in one post Votato says, while his vote sheeps me on GC:
In post 555, votato wrote:yeah at this point im fine with a GC or BM lynch.
But then when I flip to BM, Votato proves this wrong because he starts defending BM, and not flipping to vote him with me.
In post 585, stungun0404 wrote:VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.
The very next post, Votato says:
In post 586, votato wrote:Gc why do you want to flip bm if you think he'll flip town?
This distracts away from my BM vote, all the while allowing himself to defend the GC vote even more, and bringing attention to the player I flipped from, GC, calling him out on an inconsistency.

In essence, Votato is defending BM subtly, and has expressed no willingness in his ISO since then to move over to him, even though he declared at an earlier point "I am fine lynching either of BM or GC." His actions suggest otherwise. It suggests that perhaps Votato is afraid of moving over to BM, because that would make a majority wagon, as it would cause a tie in votes between BM and Dunnstral. This would cause BM, in turn, to be considered more seriously by others. Seems like a natural reaction that could happen when one is presented with the chance to put a partner of their's in danger.
In post 695, stungun0404 wrote:Next, a very short case on association from HK50's posts. HK has really not talked at all about either of Votato or BM in a scummy sense, but also doesn't really appear to be truly scumhunting in general. So that is something to keep an eye on.

Further, HK is on the counterwagon of Dunnstral, which could be seen as protecting a potential partner in Clidd/BM.

HK is only voting Dunnstral, per his because "he agrees with what has been said about him." This is a lazy sheep vote. Does that seem like genuine scumhunting to you? Especially since he's voteparked there?

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from HK's posts
HK interestingly utilized my interactions with Votato against me to support cases that are a bit of a stretch about me being scum, in his .

Further, HK also conveniently flipped on his early town indication on me he expressed in , saying that he "felt better about me" because he thinks I used "bad townie logic." But then, suddenly in , in my interactions with Votato, he frames it so that he can make me look scummier AND concludes nothing negative on Votato, perhaps making his partner look better?
In post 696, stungun0404 wrote:Finally, from the BM/Clidd angle, which is long like the Votato one, but all but seals the deal on this scumteam for me.

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from BM's posts
First note: when the Votato wagon was a thing. Guess who was on the wagon? That's right! Battle Mage joined it 4th (after Mala/me/Bob) and did so with very weak reasoning in his , while HK remained on Dunnstral (the majority wagon with limited pushback). This holds true to the theory of scum having to distance on a possible majority wagon on a partner, but also having to join a wagon on a partner.
In post 193, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 191, stungun0404 wrote:I am currently a few pages into reading, but would like to make a request. @HK50, I love your posting style -- so nothing against it -- but could you possibly use less sophisticated words to get your points across? I can understand what you are saying if I really spend time looking into your every post, but it is very hard to read some of your posts on the surface.

Another reason I ask this is because using a ton of more complicated words makes it more difficult than normal to read your intentions. This posting style could be extremely effective for scum to hide behind, because it is an easy way for them to blanket their intentions, because a lot more effort is needed than typical to truly ***ess their motives.

And if you are town, then it should make sense why this could become an issue. Because if people are having to spend too much time looking at a townplayer's posts to unpack their motives, it takes away from their focus of scumhunting, which absolutely could lead us down the wrong path in the long run.
I completely agree with this, his posts are pretty unreadable for me too because of the format. But I also think it's a very conspicuous posting style and a lot of effort for scum to keep up with minimal value, so slight townlean.
Like, if scum, why bother?
Battle Mage also sticks up for HK here. And is interestingly the first and only if I remember correctly to stick up for him there.
In post 343, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 315, Green Crayons wrote:Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.
Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas... :lol:
Here is the weak reason BM joined the Votato wagon: it was after interpreting my NAI meta analysis to be
AI
. That is a stretch. Is it because they are scum partners?

In post 346, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 321, Green Crayons wrote:
@Votato:
are you a pathetic *** scum?
A little harsh, but I did employ some artistic licence :lol:

On serious note,
Green Crayons queuing up Votato for some dodgy self-meta; 2 scum down?
BM sets up a GC link to Votato, interestingly, perhaps to mislynch later if Votato flips?

In post 405, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 389, stungun0404 wrote:Does anyone have experience with scum Dunnstral? I have only played with town Dunnstral as scum to my recollection (2 times).

I know that as town he is not the hardest player to sort, but he still is a little bit tricky. He is easier to sort than nm for sure.

Also, he might get easier by the day, but he also might not. So I am not totally against a lynch there, but would just prefer to keep him in for two reasons. One is he is one of the few players I have experience with, so I might be able to read him better as the game progresses. And two, I do not really find what he has done so far to be super scummy, and if anything the push against him gives me a slight intuition he might be town. I could be wrong there, and I would like to see him post more, but I am not super suspicious.

I do think it is very likely, however, that if one Votato/Dunn is scum, the other is not, and should be ***umed to be town. I just don't see them as connected, as votato has made very little mention of Dunn in his posts and Dunn throwing votato out of the blue as a scum partner to someone... wouldn't seem like the smartest plan if they were scum partners? I mean, that's a little bold, drawing that much attention to you
and
your partner?
I've seen scum-Dunnstral once. He tried harder than this and seemed more engaged in a game where he replaced in maybe 60 pages deep - definitely feels town here. Agree with top half of your post, last para doesn't sound right to me. In my recent experience, scum often make little mention of their buddies to avoid ***ociations being drawn.
But lynching Vot-scum first is the play, and then decide whether to bite for his stungun 'slip'. Gut says probably not
. :cop:
He still is sheeping me on Votato because of my "meta analysis", but he again is the only one to throw out the possibility of Votato and me in fact being scum together, actually taking Votato's "slip" post somewhat seriously, which is so called a "slip" because of these posts from Votato:
In post 391, votato wrote:i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the ***ociation you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong.
plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies
.
In post 392, votato wrote:*** wrong thread.
Finally, the icing on the cake:
In post 404, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 391, votato wrote:i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong. plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies.
In post 392, votato wrote:*** wrong thread.
:lol:

Last time I saw something like this it flipped town, but what can ya do!? :lol:
He uses this scumslip for reason to townread Votato :lol:



I am convinced this is the scum team. I think we should lynch them consecutively.

Also note all three of Votato, BM and GC have weakly sheep-voted people, using players as shields.
Votato sheeping me immediately onto GC, BM very weakly sheeping me onto Votato, and HK weakly sheeping Farside and others onto Dunnstral without bringing any new evidence to the table regarding Dunnstral!scum.

Thus, it seems voting Clidd is the right move here.
[too lazy to fix the 50 spoiler tag issues]

I find the timing and progression to the BM vote during the exchange to be odd. Preceding their vote on BM was posts and which threw suspicions off BM and onto dunn and germ. Yet they not only vote BM afterwards, but also when BM was only at 2 votes and was not a fully established counter wagon yet. This leads me to two conclusions:

-Stungun is town and flopped on their dunn/BM read based off their voting reason (sense of feeling true scum between GC and BM was BM and that BM lacked a lot of scum hunting)

Or

-stungun was scum and preemptively begun shading other players (me, votato, dunn, and germ) in case BM flipped.

A strong case could be made for the second situation as taking a step back and looking at stunguns theory that scum was inactive as a whole pairs conveniently nicely with the pool. However, I think it's not only invailded partially due to the timing of the vote and bus, but also how stungun handled clidd not posting after replacing in. If that was for credit, why go after the most bullshit of reasons to vote BM rather than make an independent case supporting the wagon?

Stunguns switch to voting BM is also lacking a lot of supporting logic which I find problematic if it was indeed a preemptive bus. Typically scum wants to paint a stronger narrative for themselves and struggle over keeping their story in check. Given Stungund posting habits demonstrating what would be a strong ability to mimic townlike scum hunting, it further casts doubt over it being a bus.

Therefore I think the early execution of their vote switch and subsequent ill focus on the slot likely points to town!stungun. I will be reading the later half of the progression since A) I remember them returning to GC being the likely scum again and B) to see in what context they dropped the BM/pork in favor for germ slash other lynches.

First though is my delicious lunch.
I feel like you're just trying to justify why you were pushing back against SG pushes on bm/clidd/porkens during day one. Porken flips and Sg repps out and suddenly you claim a tentative town read on the player. You don't claim a town read you just say you town read the first half. Even though nothing has changed.

I can't see a fellow townie not being able to come up on full read a full 3 days after porkens flip and 5 after germa flip. Especially when that is in fact the only player you have talked about so far this day phase. Two days into that very phase.


So why is the first thing you try to do is try to justify your pushes on SG after porkens was flipped at the start of the day. Just like how you pushed dun both my not saying if he is scum x and if i is town y. You try to present analysis based on both outcomes. Which feels to me like you know which way he will flip and are preparing for that very town flip. As why would another townie who claimed to scum read dun. Present a case for if he was town.


You even tried to shade my attempt at sorting farside. When I asked about his posts where it was unclear if he was claiming a scum read or town read on you. Where I asked him about different elements of your posts. In which his reply would be telling and help me sort his slot. Which left me feeling a slight town on him as he just came out with a simple answer and did not overly elaborate on his town read on you. Even though i asked him a wide range of points on it to see if he would concisely explain his read or try and over explain.
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Post Post #1692 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:46 am

Post by HK 50 »

Lunch turned into working on some stuff, so back now. I keep getting interrupted, so apologize in advance if sections of this sound disjointed.
Spoiler: Pivot off of BM
In post 1245, stungun0404 wrote:GC, why aren't you voting anyone right now?
In post 719, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 718, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 717, stungun0404 wrote:If Clidd flukily flips town, we lynch Dunn, guaranteed tomorrow.
nope
that townflip is not going to happen, I am that convinced, which is why I am willing to offer that.
In post 789, stungun0404 wrote:my reads, based off a combination of feel and reasoning.

titanium-strong town reads: bob, dr. pepper
solid town reads, but not beyond doubt: farside, notscience, malakittens
likely town: nm
nulltown: Dunnstral (this is notably my weakest town indication though)

minus associations and all the other stuff i have been pondering, here is how i would rate the others based strictly off the assumption that anyone could be partnered with anyone:

null: votato, gc

scumleans: geraintm, hk50

strongest scumread: clidd/bm
In post 875, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 866, Dunnstral wrote:I'm not scumreading Green crayons from his interaction with me just now, and I wasn't before that either. That vote is a pass from me.

I'll vote somebody else because you are being more flexible.

VOTE: HK 50
I would 100% be down to lynch there if others are.

Still wanting someone to analyze his ISO and see if it looks like he is scumhunting. Because he isn't to me, and that's suggestive that he is scum.
In post 876, stungun0404 wrote:And for the record, if both of the only 2 players HK has made a serious push on this game (Dunn and I) think he's scum, then maybe it would be good for others to look more closely at his pushes too.
In post 877, stungun0404 wrote:Clidd is in replacement zone, so hopefully we get a replacement soon. Why don't we give a replacement extra time and lynch here? I'll put my money where my mouth is.

VOTE: HK50
In post 884, stungun0404 wrote:if someone conducts a lot of analysis, like hk has thus far, and does not have the appearance they are scumhunting, then they are likely scum. and i'll leave it at that.
In post 889, stungun0404 wrote:@farside, what do you think about HK and whether he is scumhunting or not? From your angle, technically the scum team could be GC-NS-HK, I would think, if you look into HK
In post 899, stungun0404 wrote:Ok, I want you to try one more angle that might shift your perspective, and then I will be done trying to convince you about HK.

Imagine for a second you are Dunnstral (who you think is town). How then would you feel if you were Dunnstral with the way HK is pushing him?

Just search for all mentions of Dunn in his ISO to keep this simple.
In post 955, stungun0404 wrote:I agree 100% that one of GC/BM is scum. Like there is no possible way that could ever be town vs. town there. No qualifications at all. I am glad we have both come to that conclusion, farside!
In post 968, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 966, Green Crayons wrote:I think it was perfectly called for. You didn't ask a question. You made a statement to lob another suspicion based on your really, spectacularly bad meta analysis that farside has glomped onto like a leach. It's exhausting.
It is not bad, because early on I noticed a drastic difference in the number of questions you asked in a few of your town games vs. the number you had asked in here through a certain number of posts, which was suggestive that maybe you were not curious enough because you are scum.

I wanted to keep that to myself though to see if you kept doing that. Still, you've had 153 posts, and you have only asked 9 questions that I would consider to possibly be sorting questions now this game, which is not a lot. Given your town meta, this might suggest you have more answers than questions because you are scum, which is what I was trying to figure out since it differs with established townplay of yours.

A difference that is large with something like that is worth keeping in mind. You should be able to fully understand why that can appear scummy.
In post 978, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 971, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 968, stungun0404 wrote:It is not bad, because early on I noticed a drastic difference in the number of questions you asked in a few of your town games vs. the number you had asked in here through a certain number of posts, which was suggestive that maybe you were not curious enough because you are scum.
In post 450, Green Crayons wrote:Y’all rely way too much on so called meta.
Well, you can say that, but I do want to at least point out what I mean that may end up being AI here.

Your first 153 posts here, I found 9 possible sorting questions.

viewtopic.php?f=51&t=82922&user_select%5B%5D=150
In your most recent towngame there, I found 26 possible sorting questions.

When there's a gap like that, meta might help you solve someone. Not that it's conclusive by any means, but it is something to keep in mind.
In post 1009, stungun0404 wrote:Nice, someone I've played with before! Hey Porkens -- I remember we were on a scumteam together a few years back. Welcome to the game! :)

Stunguns vote off BM/clidd honestly looks really bad. At this point, the VC was 6 on clidd and 4 on Dunnstral for reference.

I dont have a major issue with wanting to give the replacement time after their reading into clidd's inactivity (as I lobbied for that). My bigger issue is the entire disappearance of the read in favor of discussing voting me once Dunnstral, another player, begun the push. They projected a sense of confidence eariler to the point of compromising on voting Dunnstral if BM didnt flip scum. This sense of knowing clidd/bm/pork was scum disappears entirely after the vote switch which doesn't make sense. I couldn't find a single post reaffirming their suspicions over BM despite the wagon persisting for awhile.

Additionally, it was clear the vote on me wasnt for pressure either while waiting for a replacement. If you take a look at the wording of its relatively clear that stungun wanted to remove me day 1 rather than clidd. I had thought that Prehaps it was just a switch over to aid in dunn (their town read) push onto me, but that was disproved.

I think more importantly though is comparing how stungun pushed me versus BM. Remember, stunguns content relating to why BM was scum focused a lot on building association rather than explaining why BM was scum independently. This is seemingly reversed with they dealt with me where they not only try to explain why I was singularly scum, but also was actively trying to pull people off the other wagons and onto me. I've tried to think of why this discrepancy could come from town, and the only real reason I could see is maybe it was due to me actively posting when BM wasn't? It still doesn't explain much since stunguns votato/Hk read was had points on stuff only us two had done rather than BM being the only lynchpin, so I would expect some points. If people have rationale for this, please share. I see it sort of reaffirming conclusion two despite the other issues present from the last post.

Overall, the pivot off of voting BM doesn't look natural to me. It seems opportunistic at its core hoping onto a push by Dunnstral and conveniently forgetting their previous suspection on BM and a distinctive difference in the content that was posted between the Bm push and my push. Despite the points that I thought had invalidated my previous scum conclusion, the addition of this evidence points me more to scum!stungun. There are things I still can't explain fully which i would like to debate with the thread.
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Post Post #1693 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:59 am

Post by HK 50 »

[/quote]I feel like you're just trying to justify why you were pushing back against SG pushes on bm/clidd/porkens during day one. Porken flips and Sg repps out and suddenly you claim a tentative town read on the player. You don't claim a town read you just say you town read the first half. Even though nothing has changed.[/quote]
Plenty has changed. Case in point,
porken flipped scum and germ flipped green
. For the latter, it makes me more suspicious of my intial claim that stungun was actively trying to force people they were pressuring (votato) to vote germ. In the case of the former, it gives me more to analyze over their slot given their stance that GC/BM has to contain scum.

As for the second half, I'll answer that with conjunction with the second point.
I can't see a fellow townie not being able to come up on full read a full 3 days after porkens flip and 5 after germa flip. Especially when that is in fact the only player you have talked about so far this day phase. Two days into that very phase.
Why do I have to play mafia how you do? I dont read during the night phase since I like to deattach from the thread during that time. Personally for me, if I spend the night trying to read into things I tend to go into tinfoil theory and get overwhelmed. I also like to see the results of the night kills as well which gives more info to consider. The pause happened at a bad time me when I was hosting guest at my home. So I didnt have a chance to read then.

Also yes it's the first real thing I said this day phase. And? How is that alignment indicative on it's own? You think its werid for me not to consider the implications of what was my top scum read?
So why is the first thing you try to do is try to justify your pushes on SG after porkens was flipped at the start of the day. Just like how you pushed dun both my not saying if he is scum x and if i is town y. You try to present analysis based on both outcomes. Which feels to me like you know which way he will flip and are preparing for that very town flip. As why would another townie who claimed to scum read dun. Present a case for if he was town.
I'm not? I didnt mention anything about any of the reasons I was scum reading SG. The above info is entirely new, so I'm not sure how it would justify unrelated points I've made. Furthermore, it's not like dunn at all actually.

If you actually read the first post closely, you would of noticed I said there that the scum case for stungun had issues which invalidated it and I went into detail why I thought that. This is not close to my eariler post at all on Dunnstral.
You even tried to shade my attempt at sorting farside. When I asked about his posts where it was unclear if he was claiming a scum read or town read on you. Where I asked him about different elements of your posts. In which his reply would be telling and help me sort his slot. Which left me feeling a slight town on him as he just came out with a simple answer and did not overly elaborate on his town read on you. Even though i asked him a wide range of points on it to see if he would concisely explain his read or try and over explain.
Sorting farside? You mean the post where you basically tried to goat them into voting me and including phasing such as "Look at what HK did. He threw a reason to potentially suspect you! Doesnt that concern you". That's appealing to someone's will to live in this game. Its social manipulation and you played dumb over it by asking me later "what's ATE?".

If you reasoning to do it was an reaction test to read farside better, why didnt you come further and claim that to me when I challenged you over it?
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Post Post #1694 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:01 am

Post by HK 50 »

I forgot to mention that I dont really feel post pork replacing in that there was a lot of clear AI points over how stungun handled it. I can see both scum and town motivation in their posts there.
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Post Post #1695 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:06 am

Post by HK 50 »

In post 1666, Green Crayons wrote:FWIW I think this scum pool and the reasons for it confirm stun/cat and votato as likely town
Can you explain the stungun/cat part of this more? Is it due to the lack of discussion from pork?
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Post Post #1696 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:31 am

Post by HK 50 »

In post 1683, Dunnstral wrote:This Votato wagon is looking good.

maxwell, I attacked N_M because I wasn't scumreading BM and his posts looked bad.
I rather like GC's case on you from what I read (and in general think votato is town). Convince me on it being votato or another player.
In post 1684, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
Vote Count 2.2

Dunnstral (4):
votato, Green Crayons, maxwell, DoctorPepper
votato (2):
Malakittens, Dunnstral
bob3141 (2):
Not_Mafia, Cat Scratch Fever
Not voting (2):
bob3141, HK 50


Mod Notes:

Majority is 6 players.

Cat Scratch Fever has requested an additional day.
Day 2 has begun and will end in (expired on 2020-08-08 08:05:34)
[/area]
According to the VC we have 36 days to wait for it.

Nobody tell the mod that he screwed up and gave town an extra two weeks to discuss things.
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Post Post #1697 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:24 pm

Post by Malakittens »

In post 1683, Dunnstral wrote:This Votato wagon is looking good.

maxwell, I attacked N_M because I wasn't scumreading BM and his posts looked bad.
Let’s be real. Your posts and N-M almost looked exactly the same.

I just don’t remember you acting like this during the last game I was scum. Either that or I didn’t catch it.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #1698 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:25 pm

Post by Malakittens »

Damn it. Why is this game so apathetic.

<<
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #1699 (ISO) » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:26 pm

Post by Malakittens »

I shouldn’t be able to go to sleep being the last post and waking up being the last post.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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