Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Aristophanes]

And that, friends, is how the forum broke.

[Marashu]

I need to start previewing these. working on an EBWOP

[Aristophanes]

(

@Mods
This is a weird forum quirk Kison was working on a solve for 2-3 years ago but it happens very infrequently. Please leave it as is. It may intrigue him to see what happened here!

)

---

Last i knew the admin team are aware of it but indeed, no fix yet.

- tw

[Looker]

Mara, can you provide a Nash case?

So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.

R

E

A

D

S

Spoiler: votato

I'm actually kinda surprised why they ended up in a lot of your townpools. No RVS vote was placed (scummy), and I don't find anything in their ISO which gives me town pings either - 70% of it is just fluff. I'm gonna need someone to explain their TR here. The only vote ever placed was on superbowl, and I don't like that at all.

Spoiler: Midari

The self vote (44) is suboptimal scum play since it's anti-town and will be scrutinized at some point. I think scum!Midari would have pondered upon this, so the defensiveness in (76) gives me weak town pings (since it was only RVS). I'm not sure why she had a TR on votato at that point, and I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the justification in (139), but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss. I think the vote progression from this slot is pretty natural and I disagree with the implications of (392) and (411).

Spoiler: Deimos

Strikes me as the towniest so far, although some of his reads don't really resonate with mine.
In response to (62) and (145), I'm curious to hear his thoughts on vota.
What causes the townlean on superbowl and Worcestershire (237)?
Why is word suspicious?

Spoiler: Worcestershire

Placing naked votes and failing to pick up on BM's humour in (169) are probably results of a greater cognitive load, which is likelier to come from newbie scum under pressure. But I have no idea of his meta so the read is weak. Why is the slot being townread?

I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later.
VOTE: votato for now.

This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.

Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.

The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.

[Looker]

^I think this is Marashu's post

[Marashu]

EBWOP - It looks like it was some embedded spoilers that caused the issue, and I'm having a hard time formatting. I'm just going to leave posts for the sake of legibility.
PEdit - @Looker - Yeah, that, but I was trying to add spoilers to make it less of a wall.

Mara, can you provide a Nash case?

So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.
417


This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.
589

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.
782 and 846

This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.
825

I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.
827

Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?
861

The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.

[word321]

So, u think Nash with fully knowledge of game mechanics as scum, decided to ditch a completely safe wagon on u mara (town) bc he thoought he could get away with forcing a no lynch with fully knowledge it would change the parity of mafia, with no risks of being called on it?

[word321]

he has shown to be aware of the thing with the parity in mafia; but do u think that with that knowledge he would try to force a no lynch on this player base, presuming he fully knlws de mechanics and the players involved, if it was premeditated?

[word321]

what do u think was nashs intentions with that and why?

[Looker]

We have 39h left. Gypyx is still catching up. We have time to explore Nash, even if it is just to set up for D2.

D2 flips will be decided D2. I'm not going to give scum any WIFOM.

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

Do you think that he feels threatened?

[Battle Mage]

The Prod Mod Returns

Gypyx replaces ceejayvinoya.
Say hello to our new recruit

this is good news - if there's one thing I know, it's how to

lynch

eliminate

read Gypyx

[Battle Mage]

tux's behaviour today has not looked great. if Marashu-scum, Tux probably town. If Marashu-town, look hard at Tux

[Gypyx]

Done catching up, i have mara as light scumlean but i'd much rather have a penguin Execute there

Def holding off on a hammer until Gypyx gets a chance here.

I will get you that readslist D2.
I would consider a Nash elim reasonable though right now. That would be my preferred I think.

Why wait D2 to provide content? You're never sure if you're making it to D2, as if you

knew

you were making it into D2

[Gypyx]

The Prod Mod Returns

Gypyx replaces ceejayvinoya.
Say hello to our new recruit

this is good news - if there's one thing I know, it's how to

lynch

eliminate

read Gypyx

(Ngl i'm still confused about how you found me as scum)

And also, what are your current reads?

[Doctor Drew]

Done catching up, i have mara as light scumlean but i'd much rather have a penguin Execute there

Def holding off on a hammer until Gypyx gets a chance here.

I will get you that readslist D2.
I would consider a Nash elim reasonable though right now. That would be my preferred I think.

Why wait D2 to provide content? You're never sure if you're making it to D2, as if you

knew

you were making it into D2

How would someone know they will make it to D2?

[Nash]

What's scum!me's agenda in voting for a NE?
There is a logical progression from 782 to 846. Self preservation was very unlikely (my point was unexpected) to not go for the optimal scum choice, so I think Mara is most likely to flip town.

[superbowl9]

Reminder that we have 1 day to deadline - we should be hammering soon

[Doctor Drew]

Is it still H-2?

[Aristophanes]

Done catching up, i have mara as light scumlean but i'd much rather have a penguin Execute there

Def holding off on a hammer until Gypyx gets a chance here.

I will get you that readslist D2.
I would consider a Nash elim reasonable though right now. That would be my preferred I think.

Why wait D2 to provide content? You're never sure if you're making it to D2, as if you

knew

you were making it into D2

I don't want my readslist to effect the nightkill.

[JacksonVirgo]

VC 1.19

Marashu (5)

- superbowl9, Worcestershire, Battle Mage, Looker, Tuxedo Mask

Nash (1)

- Marashu

PenguinPower (2)

- Doctor Drew, word321

Looker (1)

- Nash

No-Elimination (0)

Not Voting (3)

- Penguin Power, Deimos27, Aristophanes, Gypyx

With 7 votes to hammer... Marashu is at H-2 (2 votes until hammer)

Deadline: (expired on 2020-07-07 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Joined Mod iso
PenguinPower is V/LA for the Weekend.
Battle Mage is V/LA for (expired on 2020-07-07 06:00:00) (or 48 hours from their post or whatever you wish to say uwu)

[word321]

VOTE: Marashu

[Battle Mage]

UNVOTE:

I want to post some final thoughts after work before the day ends.

[Deimos27]

I agree with word. It's easy for scum!Nash to just continue voting town!Marashu. To 180 there and go to voting No Elim would be... unorthodox, to say the least.

[Deimos27]

So for Marashu to choose to push there feels a little off

[Deimos27]

I Marashu town I'd be more inclined to look at Aristophanes