Kanna - Her comments towards Starbuck in 1248 and 1267 followed by her vote in 1274 came at a crucial point where the midway and Starbuck wagons were a tossup.
Kanna’s ISO is pro Nahdia, con Skitts primarily, but towards the later end of the day when compromise wagons were suggested, was for Starbuck being lynched and had no opinion on midway. From what i can tell, Kanna could have shaded midway instead of Starbuck, or at the very least not suspected Starbuck (given her previous stances) if she wanted, but she didn’t.
Reading the end of the day now I can see why the Starbuck wagon clinched -- she more or less started attacking everyone in sight without much regard for accuracy. I’d expect a scum!Kanna to either vote midway or hedge between the two wagons, pointing out scummy things in both candidates. Instead she (along with skitts) sealed the deal on midway when i think it would have been easily justifiable to send it the other way.
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Lilith - She is responsible for putting the Starbuck wagon on the table in the first place (1036/1039).
The pushback to Lilith/Skitts from Starbuck (and to a lesser extent Raven) makes me feel this slot is town. Obviously there was no need to begin the Starbuck wagon even though lilith had a history of scumleaning the slot -- She could have saved investigating Starbuck for another day like others had been proposing. Instead Lilith does not give her the chance. My townread from earlier still stands, with one of the main voices against Lilith’s self meta argument flipping scum.
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Tuxedo - He joined the Starbuck wagon in 1114, even though Lilith unvoted and suggested we move off our vanity votes. He lobbies for lilith to come back. This vote came at a time where Nahdia/skitts were still acceptable wagons.
Tuxedo had all the excuse in the world at this point to not vote for Star -- The main pusher of the Star wagon had unvoted, people were mentioning how it feels off to exile a replacement, and what not. Didn’t stop him though. There is also the deal with the Star v. Tux 1v1 which heavily suggests he’s town as well. I believe that Star was genuinely trying to get suspicion drawn towards Tux, thinking it’d stick because of his odd early game.
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Midway - He townread Starbuck and vehemently wanted Dunn killed. However, he was also the counterwagon to Starbuck, with {Dunnstral, Starbuck, beeboy, Clover Ebi, Nahdia} voting for him.
I feel like I’ve been over why midway isn’t scum and I suppose it you could discredit me by saying all I’m saying is “Too scummy to be scum”. However, him being the bad counterwagon to Starbuck and his reaction to the hammer still make me feel he’s town. I think voting for midway was defensible, and scum could have gotten away with it since there weren’t really too many players defending him, but in this case he’s town and scum got caught with their pants down (^∀^)
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Clover - He joined lilith second, voting Starbuck in 1052. He wanted midway primarily but has a secondary scumread on votato.
Clover indicates that he wants Starbuck dead pretty strongly in 1052 (he’s excited about it). Had he gotten his way with the midway lynch, he would have had to scumread Starbuck for the rest of the game more or less given how strong he indicated the scumread is-- this is hard to explain. I think that scum!Clover would have indicated a weaker scumread on Starbuck and possibly stuck to his guns with the midway wagon -- it would have been pretty excusable as long as he didn’t strongly indicate he wanted Starbuck dead -- but he does here.
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Skitts - She vastly preferred Nahdia but joined lilith/Clover as the third vote in 1142. She commented negatively towards Starbuck at a crucial point between the midway/Starbuck wagons along with Kanna.
I think again the pushback towards Lilith/Skitts suggests that Starbuck (and scum) were worried about them becoming obvtown and wanted to cast shade on the two of em. Skitts still wanted Nahdia wagoned instead obviously, but she indicated that the Starbuck wagon was much preferred over midway. I think that given Skitts’ previous interaction with Starbuck (like calling her “remarkably uncharitable” in 1066), skitts could not have joined the midway wagon even if she wanted. However, she has consistently been against Starbuck (1040) which would have been hard to explain away after a Nahdia/midway misexile regardless.
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Nahdia - They lobbied for skitts votes at a time where Nahdia/skitts were still the wagons, but also said that midway was a viable alternative. After midway acquired 4 votes from {Dunnstral, Starbuck, beeboy, Clover Ebi}, they joined as a 5th (they hadn’t made any posts between the vote and the skitts/midway post). They continued to make negatives comments/sort of shades towards midway (1252, 1285, 1296) as the day progressed. No mention of Star really since suggesting midway as far as i can tell. Oh there’s one actually -- they laugh at Tuxes’ point against Star saying that her catchup being extended could be scummy. I agree with Nahdia here actually
Tonally I’ve leaned town on Nahdia ever since they reentered the thread drunk a while back. Nahdia says that Star’s catchup was unremarkable and agrees that catchups are easy to fake (back at 1135). They scumread votato early and say they’re willing to vote Star if needed.
Their final post is at Star’s L-2, when Clover left the midway wagon for Star -- they argue that midway can’t really justify attacking Star since he had been expressing a TR on votato. Fair enough.
Overall I can believe Nahdia potentially being scum but also they did have the history of scumreading votato -- I am inclined to think that scum would have jumped ship and attacked Star once it seemed inevitable (page 52, like beeboy did). My independent townlean on Nahdia makes me lean against it being them as well
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Dunn - He vehemently argued for midway’s exile all the way up until “E-1”ing Star. He did have votato/Star as his second scumread prior.
Dunn has been pretty disengaged with the game. I suppose it’s possible he didn’t intend to kill Starbucks with his vote, given that she (I assume) would have claimed watcher, which then could have caused the wagon to pivot back to midway. Still, he shut this down COMPLETELY by offing her. He also had votato/Star as his second choice for the exile which is consistent
However, if he believed that was an actual E-1, this could have been a distancing move, sure, because then Star might have gotten out of it with the claim. In fact, there was probably enough momentum on midway that it could have easily shifted back. And Dunn would have been totally justified in doing so.
Still I lean against it as that’s much more complicated -- I lean towards the more obvious answer that town!Dunn wasn’t paying attention, since if that is his mate on the line, he’d have paid more attention to the votes.
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Beeboy - He was second to vote midway, as Nahdia suggested we powerwagon him. After Lilith/Tux insisted on Starbuck, he voted Star. He recalled reasons to vote for midway and lobbied for Clover/Starbuck to help him lynch beeboy. After Kanna and Skitts make the vote + comments that ended up sealing the wagon, beeboy cast the E-1 on Star.
After Nahdia suggested a powerwagon on mid, Beeboy clarifies that he is willing to vote Star, but feels they won’t be exiled “as they've been a topic for a very long period of time.” I feel this is somewhat weak reasoning for not voting Star but at the same time, i was townleaning Star earlier as a reason of the Tux 1v1.
Beeboy’s case on midway (1181) comes after Dunn, Clover, and Star all express the desire to exile midway after his vote on Star. Again -- midway is town, but I think scum could come up with justifiable ways to misexile him. Beeboy mentions that midway changed opinions at complete reason in a different game (getting him killed), but this game he’s sticking tunneled on Dunn to avoid getting himself killed. i would argue that midway has not put much towards not getting himself killed this game, either.
[5] midwaybear: Dunnstral, Starbuck, beeboy, Clover Ebi, Nahdia
I think there was almost certainly scum pushing for midway to be killed, it was a perfect counterwagon. However, beeboy’s voting pattern is almost like too blatant-- check 1181. He literally asks Star (along with beeboy) if we can get momentum for a midway wagon.
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Drusilla - She was absent for the midway/Starbuck wagons. Their last post expresses a suspicion of Kanna.
I don’t have a read on drusilla and sadly there’s no wagon analysis from her for me to examine. Via PoE and her latest suspicion being Kanna, her odds are higher to be scum, though. I would not be surprised at any flip from her, though, because skitts and another player (?) if i recall have been adamant she is town.
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Raven - She initially considered votato to be scummy but turned around upon Star’s catchup. She stuck to the skitts wagon.
In 1026, Raven questions Skitts why Star is a viable counterwagon, as she doesn’t find Star scummy. Additionally in 1029, she expresses a suspicion/dislike that lilith/skitts are tagteaming (don’t like this much).
Raven keeps discussing the Nahdia/Raven debate in 1069 despite skitts seeming like she’s very uninterested at this point in 1067. Raven’s 1072 sticks out to me a bit -- She sort of agrees with Star that skitts/lilith’s posting styles are NAI, but makes sure to include that it wasn’t bothering her. It’s like halfway to agreeing with Star but not quite.
Now contrast this with Nahdia’s response (1071) to the same comment: Nahdia gives what i think is the correct interpretation of lilith’s claim about her meta. “i mean lilith isn't say she would do things different as scum. she's saying she literally could not do what she is doing rn if she were scum.” I think this is a much more fair evaluation of lilith -- Starbuck was HEAVILY shading lilith for the posting style thing and while Nahdia gave what i think was the right answer, Raven more just chimed in that she agrees posting style is NAI.
In 1164, Raven asks Star several questions about her current stances. She says that she doesn’t like compromise wagons much but leaves it at that with regards to the Star wagon. Raven consistently sort of wants to steer away from the wagons in skitts/Nahdia swapping, even in 1164 where she questions Starbuck for a discrepancy.
Tldr - Raven has made posts not really townreading Star but also questioning the wagon choice on her (1026 & 1062), agreeing with Star on lilith/skitts not being townie via posting (1061 & 1072), and expressedthat she doesn't want a compromise wagon, but not mentioning names (1164)
