Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Dumb and Dumber]

DC I would really appreciate it if you can engage with me on why you think Klick is right on his Pooky scumread here

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

I think there’s at least one scum in (klick, wug, DnD) but if it’s wug I think it’s probably not pooky

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoo progress

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

DC I would really appreciate it if you can engage with me on why you think Klick is right on his Pooky scumread here

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Because I think you're confbiased and I want to work on undoing that

- Dumber

[Klick]

I think there’s at least one scum in (klick, wug, DnD) but if it’s wug I think it’s probably not pooky

Hmm
Why do you think it's not {Pooky, Wug}?
And if you think the team isn't {Pooky, Wug} then why do you want to vote Pooky today? I'm assuming you don't think it's {Pooky, Klick}.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Because I think you're confbiased and I want to work on undoing that

- Dumber

I don't think you can actually articulate the solve you're pushing right now.

You're acting like it's obvious that Pooky Bad and Klick Good but I'm not sure you can actually explain why you think that

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

A fairly key moment seems to me to be the immediate rush on koba after coalition fail that I spearheaded. Koba went to L-1 very quickly and we now know that he was town. The 4 people who voted there were (me, klick, wug, sleeper)

If I deduct myself that leaves (klick, wug, sleeper)

But what was pooky doing at this point? Pushing for a wug!flip which is also how he started the day

I don’t think it makes sense for him to just lolbus his partner the second after the coalition fails, meaning that if wug is scum on that wagon, it’s with one of (klick, sleeper/DnD)

[Klick]

Look at the game climate at this point. I'm mildly advocating for Clover being in the coalition, some others have expressed very light townreads there but nothing too serious. Clover!scum's Master Play is to... remove himself from contention.

If clover was town - why would he remove himself from contention? the move doesn't really make sense from either POV

actually it might make sense if Clover is scum and his Scumbuddy is already firmly entrenched as a universal town-read - then it would make sense to spread the 2 scum players between on-off coalition just to decrease the chance of a lynch hitting scum after coalition fails

Pooky posts these shortly after unvoting Clover. He has already reasoned out that Clover could only really be scum with someone who was already on the coalition.

And yet his narrative going into the rest of the day continues to be wanting to lynch Clover. He puts his vote back on Clover while supposing that basically anyone on-coalition could be Clover's partner, but also while expressing townreads on the rest of the coalition.

The things Pooky is saying don't correlate with putting a vote back on Clover.

[Klick]

A fairly key moment seems to me to be the immediate rush on koba after coalition fail that I spearheaded. Koba went to L-1 very quickly and we now know that he was town. The 4 people who voted there were (me, klick, wug, sleeper)

If I deduct myself that leaves (klick, wug, sleeper)

But what was pooky doing at this point? Pushing for a wug!flip which is also how he started the day

I don’t think it makes sense for him to just lolbus his partner the second after the coalition fails, meaning that if wug is scum on that wagon, it’s with one of (klick, sleeper/DnD)

Two important things to remember about that part of the day

1. Wug was not in any tangible danger. Several people had already said we were executing on-coalition. A Wug push was never taking off, even though...
2. Everyone suspected Wug. It would be weird to not express Wug suspicion in some form considering the room and the reads he had already expressed.

For those reasons I don't think there's any real barrier to Pooky bussing Wug.

[Klick]

Like given that town was going to be executing on-coalition until scum died, bussing off-coalition does nothing bad for that team.

[Klick]

clover is my top for scum in coalition because I'm pretty damn certain of the other 3 in the coalition.

I haven't even really looked outside coalition but I think DC is town

This is where Pooky started the day
Then, after reasoning that Clover could only really be scum with someone on-coalition, he didn't really go 'right, who am I wrong about? Because I have to be wrong about someone' which is what I'd expect the town response to be
Instead, he gave a token thought to anyone in-coalition being potential scum with Clover, and continued on with the push. Because he wasn't solving - he was pushing Clover because he needed Clover to be executed.

[Klick]

2170 literally says that you townread 2/4 members of the coalition and so you're planning on voting one of the other two. It's the definition of a POE read.

No, 1530 says that. There's a bit more in 2170 that you're choosing to ignore

[DonCorleone]

cmon read wug iso and tell me that doesn't look like a scum

I don’t think pooky makes a push like this on his scumbuddy knowing that it clears 3 people and focuses all attention inside the coalition where he’s not the strongest slot

[Klick]

But again, do you think Pooky actually thinks 5 people are going to vote outside the coalition D1? I don't. The push has no teeth.

[DonCorleone]

VOTE: klick

[Klick]

BECAUSE THERE IS CONFIRMED SCUM INSIDE THE COALITION AND THERE MAY BE 2 SCUM INSIDE

And scum are close to forced to kill outside anyway so if you ARE gonna lynch outside you sure as shit don’t do it on D1

Like this was your reaction to his posting at the time
I see Koba thinking it's a good idea, but not Pooky.
PEdit: lmao.

[Klick]

Don't lynch these ever: Deimos, Aldus
I think this is VI but use your own judgement at this point: DC
Lynch these to win: Pooky, Wug, DnD (I'd lean towards Pooky/DnD at this point)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like this was your reaction to his posting at the time
I see Koba thinking it's a good idea, but not Pooky.
PEdit: lmao.

if wug flips scum - we go into tommorrow with 7 alive, 2 confirmed townies(assuming mafia kill 1 of the 3 clears) so we have 3 lynches to find 1 scum out of 5.

I'm willing to say that Koba probably didn't sacrifice their scumbuddy Wug as a gambit - so let's say that clears Koba,

we are left with myself, sleeper, clover and klick. If you can clear Sleeper because the Sleeper/Tuxedo interaction earlier in D1 - then we are left with 3 lynches and 3 possible scum for the wagon - hence enough for our solve - assuming we were correct to clear sleeper/koba.

This all hinges on Wugs being scum.

Klick just lying now

vote Klick

adding VOTE: klick for the votecounter -D

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But again, do you think Pooky actually thinks 5 people are going to vote outside the coalition D1? I don't. The push has no teeth.

Koba/Pooky is 2

The 3 Off Coalition people getting cleared voting the one person getting pushed out is another 3 - it's a ballsy play with high EV upside if we hit a scum off-coalition.

The only 2 people who expressed support of this idea was me/koba - you know koba is town - so if I'm scum why isn't my scumpartner supporting this idea too?

[DonCorleone]

UNVOTE:

But consider me spiritually on klick

[Klick]

with high EV upside if we hit a scum off-coalition

'It's low-EV, but if we lynch scum it's high-EV'

If we lynch both scum we have a 100% chance of winning, why don't we just do that?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the EV gain from lynching scum off-coalition is higher than EV gain from lynching scum on-coalition because when you lynch off-coalition scum you gain 3-conf innocents as well as reducing the coalition game state to one in which you can lynch 3 times in 5 players to catch 1 scum. If you have 2 really strong townreads on-coalition this is fairly trivial to win.

[Klick]

That's in exchange for the pitifully low odds of actually executing scum off-coalition, which you keep conveniently ignoring

[Klick]

Ah well, Klick/Deimos/Aldus/Wug is still a majority.

DC from my perspective this is now the second time you're whimsically choosing a terrible wagon on a whim and contradicting the thoughts you posted not very long before pushing said wagon. Explain your thoughts.