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Post Post #2350 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:43 pm

Post by Blair »

In post 2348, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 2346, Blair wrote:I do think Reck's awkward revelation claim is worth pushing, and I also really hate VP's Tracker claim.
Both of these need deeper explanation
Re: Reck
  • I don't like the way he suggested that Farside's claim to have had an unstated revelation somehow indicates that Reck's (also unstated) revelation must belong to a townie. We have no evidence of scum having lost their one revelatory player other than the words of dead scum.
  • He's set himself up to never share his revelation until endgame.
  • He claims his revelation would benefit scum if it were revealed, and that revealing his revelation to the town would not benefit the town. He says is stops being useful once it's revealed - which would indicate that it's really only useful to him, yes? Yet it doesn't seem to have resulted in Reck having a clearer understanding of the game state than anyone else.
  • Why would a Townie receive a revelation that doesn't benefit the town and only helps scum if it's revealed?
Re: VP Baltar
  • It looks like he laid out breadcrumbs for multiple roles, not just Tracker.
  • He waited until everyone else had claimed before joining the Tracker party?
  • There's nothing special about any of his checks - so why did he feel the need to hang back instead of claiming with the other Trackers yesterday?
In post 2347, Hoopla wrote: KMD is probably the tracker i want dead most, but i'm happy sitting on my blair vote for now. hers is a slot that hasn't received enough pressure throughout the game.
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Post Post #2351 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:52 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

In post 2350, Blair wrote:
In post 2348, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 2346, Blair wrote:I do think Reck's awkward revelation claim is worth pushing, and I also really hate VP's Tracker claim.
Both of these need deeper explanation
Re: Reck
  • I don't like the way he suggested that Farside's claim to have had an unstated revelation somehow indicates that Reck's (also unstated) revelation must belong to a townie. We have no evidence of scum having lost their one revelatory player other than the words of dead scum.
  • He's set himself up to never share his revelation until endgame.
  • He claims his revelation would benefit scum if it were revealed, and that revealing his revelation to the town would not benefit the town. He says is stops being useful once it's revealed - which would indicate that it's really only useful to him, yes? Yet it doesn't seem to have resulted in Reck having a clearer understanding of the game state than anyone else.
  • Why would a Townie receive a revelation that doesn't benefit the town and only helps scum if it's revealed?
because i think scum wouldn't just flat out lie about having a revelation. idk. the best lies are ones based on truth, and i think farside was telling the truth about having a revelation. i dont think she'd claim it umprompted.
yes, it would benefit scum. like i said -- part of my revelation is that
scum know that i know something about the game
.
if you think real hard about it you might figure out what i could know about the game that, when revealed, would remove its usefulness.
have you ever heard of negative utility?
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Post Post #2352 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2350, Blair wrote:Re: VP Baltar
It looks like he laid out breadcrumbs for multiple roles, not just Tracker.
He waited until everyone else had claimed before joining the Tracker party?
There's nothing special about any of his checks - so why did he feel the need to hang back instead of claiming with the other Trackers yesterday?
You think I was what, going to claim watcher or tracker? You think I'm faking a claim that can easily be verified by a bunch of trackers at this point?

Why would I have claimed yesterday when I had the potential to be a hidden force at that point?
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Post Post #2353 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:25 pm

Post by Blair »

In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:You think I was what, going to claim watcher or tracker?
Maybe. It looks like you breadcrumbed Watcher on Day 1 then breadcrumbed Tracker on Day 2... and I don't even know what we were supposed to glean from the third one, but definitely not Tracker? :shifty:

It looks like you prepped early on to have some options by the time we reached massclaim. Then at some point you discovered this was some awkward 72-Tracker Fiesta and settled on Tracker as the only viable PR claim.

The alternative is that it was all genuine, but then I'm left wondering what on earth the rationale was for crumbs #1 and #3.
In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:You think I'm faking a claim that can easily be verified by a bunch of trackers at this point?
Nothing about your claim is falsifiable.
In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:Why would I have claimed yesterday when I had the potential to be a hidden force at that point?
Your plan was to be "a hidden force"? You said you tracked Gamma last night. So another Tracker claims to have tracked another Tracker claim (and you already knew Gamma's target because you were the last to claim). You did the same thing as all the other Trackers. Help me understand this strategy?
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Post Post #2354 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:35 pm

Post by Gammagooey »

Went over a lot of d1 stuff and I'm probably going to be pushing on one of UT/Reck/Blair after some more reading (almost definitely not happening tonight). This is me just putting thoughts into words so don't expect it to be super coherent/concise/whatever, it's probably more for my own benefit of processing all this junk and being able to remember and think through it in the next few days than it is for telling people who to yeet.

Reck & UT feel like the easy answers from dayplay - they felt pretty non-existent through a ton of d1 and I think a lot of people look pretty damn town in the sections that they missed. AGar is willing to fight everyone in his early game posts and attacks Auro when Auro's posts are garbage while also not going into big explanations about it for potential towncred, GC feels genuine in his scumhunting and his reactions to people, (example from my notes: I like GC's posts on page 9 for town even though if I went into why deeper it would wind up being something like 'lazy at first but checks and corrects himself' being slightly more likely to come from town than scum which is dumb but I still like it).
Kmd's responses to farside and ABR look good to me early game too. The only tracker claim that I don't have a GUT townread on is actually VPB, but VPB went after Auro early and convincingly and both of Auro/farside acted a lot weirder around each other than they did with VPB. It's really hard to convince myself that VPB would think bussing Auro would be a good idea that early, and it gets harder when farside feels like she's half-assing the bus on Auro afterwards.

I do think that Reck's getting some maybe undeserved heat atm b/c he's the nail sticking out of the setup atm - his play certainly isn't spectacular but the votes on him feel lazy, like people are expecting him to claim his revelation and/or flip scum and then that magically fixes the setup somehow. I've got the big doubt about it making the game easier to understand at least, and if he's scum then imo he's scum more in spite of his early revelation claim than because of it.

UT I'm still not a fan of his hateboner towards the ABR wagon d2 - it still seems really unlikely to do anything positive for scum long-term considering how hard ABR was pushing Auro & VPB and it just feels like an easy way to attack people that didn't get on Auro's wagon. He's had some sporadic good posts and his Auro vote is fine. Both him and Reck I think act in similar ways to how they actually did d1 as either alignment in regards to the spamfest and generally not wanting to deal with it and missing decent chunks of the day, but I am a little surprised that UT didn't jump on Auro a little earlier?

Blair's at least simpler to explain - her day 1 posting was quite good, and her play since day 3 seems lazy and opportunistic.

Puppy's way of claiming his revelation seems dumb but a)I don't think him claiming it the way he did actually hurt the town in any way or gives him as scum an advantage given the role clownfuckery going on and b) the way he went along with voting and eventually yeeting Auro I REALLY don't think comes from scum.
Puppy post #826 wrote:thinking some more the auro case doesn't hit right, i don't agree that lots of low-effort posts mean scum or that his posts are particularly low-effort. but of all the major cases presented so far (vpb, blair), the one on auro is "least wrong" imo
This post is VERY IMPORTANT in context b/c of Porkens freak-out and basically solidifed that Auro was going to claim and wound up pushing Auro into actually getting dead
In post 1098, CantHateAPuppy wrote:fwiw auro should claim now, a lot of the game rn is held up on abr trying to get this claim and the threat of l-1 so i want to see what happens when there is a claim
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Post Post #2355 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:52 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2353, Blair wrote:
In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:You think I was what, going to claim watcher or tracker?
Maybe. It looks like you breadcrumbed Watcher on Day 1 then breadcrumbed Tracker on Day 2... and I don't even know what we were supposed to glean from the third one, but definitely not Tracker? :shifty:

It looks like you prepped early on to have some options by the time we reached massclaim. Then at some point you discovered this was some awkward 72-Tracker Fiesta and settled on Tracker as the only viable PR claim.

The alternative is that it was all genuine, but then I'm left wondering what on earth the rationale was for crumbs #1 and #3.
In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:You think I'm faking a claim that can easily be verified by a bunch of trackers at this point?
Nothing about your claim is falsifiable.
In post 2352, VP Baltar wrote:Why would I have claimed yesterday when I had the potential to be a hidden force at that point?
Your plan was to be "a hidden force"? You said you tracked Gamma last night. So another Tracker claims to have tracked another Tracker claim (and you already knew Gamma's target because you were the last to claim). You did the same thing as all the other Trackers. Help me understand this strategy?
The concept behind all my crumbs were terms related to investigations. Kind of silly to say I was cornered into tracker when I was crumbing my targets the whole time.

My claim, and really all trackers seem verifiable with coordinated tracks to see who goes where.

Re: gamma...I didn't track him. I tracked kmd to gamma. I tracked kmd because his claim was most suspicious.
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Post Post #2356 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:05 pm

Post by Blair »

You misunderstand - I'm saying, your claim fits with all publicly available information at the time you made it. Sure, you could be "caught" tomorrow, if you claim before someone who tracked you - but you can just track one of the VT claims and say "I thought they might be scum." If you perform the kill on the same person you "tracked," you're golden (assuming Puppy's revelation is true).

You haven't actually taken any risk by claiming that if it's false.
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Post Post #2357 (ISO) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:07 pm

Post by Blair »

In post 2354, Gammagooey wrote:I do think that Reck's getting some maybe undeserved heat atm b/c he's the nail sticking out of the setup atm - his play certainly isn't spectacular but the votes on him feel lazy, like people are expecting him to claim his revelation and/or flip scum and then that magically fixes the setup somehow.
Aren't I the only one voting for him?
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Post Post #2358 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:35 am

Post by Starbuck »

In post 2357, Blair wrote:
In post 2354, Gammagooey wrote:I do think that Reck's getting some maybe undeserved heat atm b/c he's the nail sticking out of the setup atm - his play certainly isn't spectacular but the votes on him feel lazy, like people are expecting him to claim his revelation and/or flip scum and then that magically fixes the setup somehow.
Aren't I the only one voting for him?
You are now, but CLAP and Hoopla had voted around the same time you did.
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Post Post #2359 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:09 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2356, Blair wrote:You haven't actually taken any risk by claiming that if it's false.
That's just wrong. If people are skeptical, they could tell me to track a tracker and post the result first thing tomorrow. The other tracker could then confirm whether I'm telling the truth about who they visited or not. It's pretty easy to verify any particular tracker on any particular night.

Are you willfully misunderstanding here or you don't know how trackers work?

--------

In other news, I'm a bit torn on focusing on the tracker pool vs. the pool of people with revelations this game. I'm suspicious someone in that latter pool could be lying, particularly since I think ABR likely had a revelation on Auro/me given his laser focus on us from the jump and the bad case that formed my wagon D1. There's also a non-zero level of fuckery going on with both reck & puppy's info, though I don't find either of their actions this game particularly scummy. Clearly Vi was intending at least one revelation to make a person look like an unreliable narrator.

Reck, why are you so confident farside was telling the truth about a revelation? It just read to me like a lie any scum could tell on threat of death. Plus, wouldn't all scum be privy to revealed info after talking with their buddies? Doesn't seem any kind of guarantee that alleged info (which was never given) actually originated with her.
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Post Post #2360 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:39 am

Post by Gammagooey »

@VPB - you're pretty clearly a tracker because of what this game is and b/c you're not suicidal. But, to be fair to Blair's paranoia of you (though not her specifics), you leaving a watcher breadcrumb as scum in case you got ran up early and needed a claim that wasn't tracker assuming scum-you knew tracker would be counterclaimed isn't completely impossible. I don't really think that's what happened, but it's theoretically a play scum VPB could make.
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Post Post #2361 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:59 am

Post by Gammagooey »

VPB what were your thoughts during the tracker clusterfuck yesterday? Did you think any claims were particularly likely to come from town b/c of the way they came out? What did you think of AGar's mystery track at the time?
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Post Post #2362 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:01 am

Post by CantHateAPuppy »

In post 2359, VP Baltar wrote:Clearly Vi was intending at least one revelation to make a person look like an unreliable narrator.
this is really easy. if at least one tracker targets Vi, you will see Vi go directly to the nightkill. if the other trackers focus on targetting players who haven't been targeted yet, we probably also won't find any scum moving either, which is more proof that mechanically trackers have been nerfed

personally, i want to lynch in the pool of non-trackers, because even if both groups are basically vanilla, trackers can keep an eye on themselves and there's slightly more information to work with theere. also, if you eliminate VPB from the tracker pool and starbuck / me from the vanilla pool, they're about the same size
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Post Post #2363 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:15 am

Post by CantHateAPuppy »

how about this: two trackers agree right here to agree to track vi. they can't both die.

that still leaves three trackers to do whatever, which as we've all admitted is basically nothing anyways
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Post Post #2364 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:39 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 2360, Gammagooey wrote:you leaving a watcher breadcrumb as scum in case you got ran up early and needed a claim that wasn't tracker assuming scum-you knew tracker would be counterclaimed isn't completely impossible
if VP is scum, why even mention the crumb that he intended to be used for a watcher when claiming tracker?

Makes no sense.
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Post Post #2365 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:55 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 2362, CantHateAPuppy wrote:this is really easy. if at least one tracker targets Vi, you will see Vi go directly to the nightkill.
I have confirmed that I can target Vi at night. I'll do precisely that tonight. I recommend at least one other tracker do the same, in case ~*~someone~*~ kills me.
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Post Post #2366 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:15 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2360, Gammagooey wrote:@VPB - you're pretty clearly a tracker because of what this game is and b/c you're not suicidal. But, to be fair to Blair's paranoia of you (though not her specifics), you leaving a watcher breadcrumb as scum in case you got ran up early and needed a claim that wasn't tracker assuming scum-you knew tracker would be counterclaimed isn't completely impossible. I don't really think that's what happened, but it's theoretically a play scum VPB could make.
Sure, that's understandable. But Blair's point seems to be beyond that. She seems to be saying there's a reasonable doubt I'm not a tracker, which is just silly given how easy it is to prove that I am. If I was scum, wouldn't the easy play just be to say I don't have breadcrumbs? It makes no sense that I'd be one of the few (only?) people to crumb my all my actions so far if I was trying to be less than transparent.
In post 2361, Gammagooey wrote:VPB what were your thoughts during the tracker clusterfuck yesterday? Did you think any claims were particularly likely to come from town b/c of the way they came out? What did you think of AGar's mystery track at the time?
Well initially I was like "sweet, kmd is caught." Then AGar immediately had the same reaction as me so I briefly thought, "well maybe there are 2 scum and 2 town trackers." I had kind of thought maybe you had picked up on a crumb of mine when you said something like "what if there are multiple trackers in the game." So AGar felt pretty town to me right away, so I didn't really care about him withholding info at that point. Seemed plausible he thought that was helpful to town. Also, GC claimed unprompted, which felt kind of town. Then things escalated and I was less sure what to think, but I still generally trust my instincts as it went down.

My speculation is that scum may have known there were multiple trackers in the game. We know they had Auro. They could also have a second. We also don't know what kind of revelations they had. Did they know from the start town have trackers too? I've been thinking about what my play would be if I was scum and I lost two team members from the start. I think scum play might become increasingly risky, given the deficit. That means I can't rule out scum might lean into a mass tracker claim. But overall, still think kmd is the least town of that crowd.
In post 2363, CantHateAPuppy wrote:how about this: two trackers agree right here to agree to track vi. they can't both die.

that still leaves three trackers to do whatever, which as we've all admitted is basically nothing anyways
Happy to be the second on this if needed.
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Post Post #2367 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 am

Post by CantHateAPuppy »

scum not claiming tracker makes a lot of sense if they would have expected to get counterclaimed. which is a reasonable expectation if: 1) they had 2 trackers 2) they had a ninja 3) they had some sort of setup revelation. we know scum have to have some sort of revelation, and if it's just vanillas and trackers it's hard to imagine what other revelations they could have had.

if VPB and GC both agree to track vi, then the other three can track their conscious, VPB and GC can keep each other honest tomorrow, and we don't have to entertain any more wifom about whether im making it all up. until then i think it's probably best to vote outside the tracker group and not expect the setup to solve the game for us

oh, and
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: i was thinking about what your revelation could be and i thought i had a good guess. just answer this one question. does it involve the word "trigger"?
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Post Post #2368 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:33 am

Post by Blair »

Not to suggest that we pile ~all~ of the Trackers on to Vi, but...

If we have exactly two, there is the risk that one of them is scum and the other is killed. Then the scum Tracker can just lie to us. Given that we have two volunteers rather than two nominees for this job, the likelihood one of them is scum is higher in my estimation.
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Post Post #2369 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:35 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

In post 2359, VP Baltar wrote:Reck, why are you so confident farside was telling the truth about a revelation? It just read to me like a lie any scum could tell on threat of death. Plus, wouldn't all scum be privy to revealed info after talking with their buddies? Doesn't seem any kind of guarantee that alleged info (which was never given) actually originated with her.
i mean, sure

i am just speaking in terms of this playerlist. i think out of everyone here, as scum, i would rate me and blair as the two people most likely to have enough balls to do some risky "claim a revelation when you don't have one" gambit. and even then, if i was scum with a revelation, i'd just... claim i had one, because it's the truth, and it's way easier to play as scum when you tell the truth. i think in general town assume scum are making big bold lies and fakeclaims, etc, when i think the truth of the matter is much more subtle
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Post Post #2370 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:37 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

like i understand we cannot confirm or deny whether farside really had a revelation and it's all speculation, totally aware of that. i just find it way way way more likely she actually had a revelation and was the One Scum Revelation rather than scum coming up with some really overly complex big strategy D1 to feed farside revelation info and fake out who has it all super early in the game? bc it was p early when she claimed it.
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Post Post #2371 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:37 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

In post 2367, CantHateAPuppy wrote:oh, and
@reck
: i was thinking about what your revelation could be and i thought i had a good guess. just answer this one question. does it involve the word "trigger"?
no
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Post Post #2372 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:38 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

my revelation could be associated with the word "smoke"

that's all i'll say on it
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Post Post #2373 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:51 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

So when it was mentioned that the first two kills looked like scum kills, I'm not a fan of puppy acting like the iamausername kill confirms his info. Isn't that kind of what scum would do to try to confirm that? I still think it's possible puppy is lying and gamma made the kill. However, tracking Vi tonight could prove puppy's info, so I'd rather wait on that.

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Im catching myself being stubborn on the Reck thing. I had him as a strong town read and I think I've become confirmation biased on that. But the point about his revelation is stronger than I wanted to admit at first. It really doesn't make sense for town to have a revelation with that nature. He may even be talking about the same revelation that farside was. I'm sure by now scum have talked about their revelation(s) in the PT. He mentions negative utility but I don't see how that applies here. Negative utility is a role that hurts town. This just sounds like knowing something that town shouldn't know? I just don't see why from a setup perspective. Unless scum was supposed to be paranoid of Reck but that goes back to if they aren't making their own kills then why? So puppy and reck's info don't really seem to make sense together but that's a guess without knowing what reck's info is so meh.

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On Blair, I dont really get the hate but that's kind of been a theme this game which is why hoopla implying Blair hasn't had enough pressure is weird to me. Maybe narrative was the wrong word and I'll admit when i read it i didn't feel like people were pushing that she was refusing to claim either but after she showed those five points about it I can see where she felt she was being pressed hard to claim. I also dont know her meta so the idea that she should be more of a driving force in this game isn't something I'm going to try to guess on.
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
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Post Post #2374 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:53 am

Post by Blair »

In post 2370, xRECKONERx wrote:rather than scum coming up with some really overly complex big strategy D1 to feed farside revelation info and fake out who has it all super early in the game?
Mafia PT
Scum A:
OK guys, I got a revelation along with my role! Here it is: [revelation]

Scum B:
Interesting!

Scum C:
Hey guys, how would you feel if I claimed I had that revelation instead? I won't actually say what it is, just that I have one (for now, at least).

Scum D:
Sounds good to me.


I'm not sure I'd characterize it as a "really overly complex big strategy." :|
“There is nothing so dangerous for anyone who has something to hide as conversation! A human being [...] cannot resist the opportunity to reveal himself and express his personality which conversation gives him. Every time he will give himself away.” -Hercule Poirot

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