Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[Moment]

Of course, it's possible my thinking there is flawed. It's true that investigating both of your top suspects assuming a scumflip today still either wins the game in two more days or proves to you that both of your top choices were wrong. Perhaps my objection is more based on the specific people rather than any sort of general principle of the best way to investigate in this setup.

I doubt it really makes all that much difference.

[Menalque]

I’m going to be a sad mena if you’re scum, moment

[Alisae]

moment is probably scum tbh

[Menalque]

Just cause u want be to be sad

[GuiltyLion]

I think a 2 size pool is better than 3

[GuiltyLion]

I think that including both Alisae and Norwegian in the same pool would be suboptimal. In general I think that when creating an investigation pool around expected partners of an expected scumflip, you ought to include one and leave one out. The logic goes something like this – if you're investigating the people who you would already consider your lynchpool for tomorrow, the only outcome that would really change what you were going to do anyways would be an innocent result. If you already consider X and Y to be the likeliest partners of Z and you were already only lynching among them, then getting a guilTea result doesn't change all that much.

Including one, excluding another and including an unknown third party (a sort of "wild card") seems to me to be a better way to narrow things down. Innocent result, lynch the partner suspect you left out and if you're wrong then you realize that both of your most likely suspects were incorrect and in the process you gained an innocent on a third party. GuilTea result, lynch the partner suspect in the pool and if you're wrong then you've still won despite investigating a less suspect third party rather than your top picks for partners.

this was kinda my process, more subconsciously tho

like I don't think I really explained this or fully grokked this myself earlier when I was responding to Umlaut's NS/NK15 analysis I didn't like, but I think Umlaut does look better on a notscience scumflip, I'm more suspicious of Umlaut if NS is town. So I was thinking he'd be a good candidate for if we get the unexpected townflip. Norway is my pick for a likely partner and so if we get a guilTea I'm voting there first always. S_S is just a null slot, a result either way helps with him.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - Norway is my pick for a likely NS partner

[NorwegianboyEE]

It’s a shame, but if we’re confirming 2 town to avoid a future mislynch then i guess that’s what it comes down to.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Moment’s logic on NK15 stands strong and doesn’t look like the defense of a scum partner. I would be very shocked if NK15 was scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Also i feel irrational hatred towards anyone that uses the term: "misclown".
Such a stupid substitute.

[Iconeum]

inspect: wheat

Norwee and SS go on wheat

my vote is still on notsciencedude

[Radical Rat]

Also i feel irrational hatred towards anyone that uses the term: "misclown".
Such a stupid substitute.

Misexecute is too many syllables, and I like the visual of just. Slamming a pie in the face of the execution target.

I won't deny it's stupid, but it's fun.


ANYWAY
VOTE: Inspect Wheat
I would still prefer to recheck Moment/Datisi, but I suppose that can be done tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

do you really think scum are gonna be fake claiming like NK did?

Then we get a bonus conftown and people can stop worrying about him, and he's obviously not daughter so we don't lose anything.

Also it just occurred to me that if we find tea in a pool of 3 it's autowin. So we can afford to throw a third person in if there's one that clearly isn't daughter.

[Iconeum]

Also it just occurred to me that if we find tea in a pool of 3

it's autowin

it's not

[Something_Smart]

Norwee and SS go on wheat

You should add a third person. Mathematically, if we find tea in a group of three, we execute one of the three while checking Moment or Datisi (if NS is town), and then we execute the scum in Moment/Datisi while checking one of the remaining two, and then we execute the scum in the other group.

It's autowin as long as the daughter isn't guessed.

[Iconeum]

Then we get a bonus conftown and people can stop worrying about him, and he's obviously not daughter so we don't lose anything.

there's only a minority actually scumreading him, and in those i think most are just seeing it as a scummy move

i don't see a valid reason to investigate NK at all

[Something_Smart]

Right? Say the scum is Datisi/S_S

Execute NS, check NK/Norway/S_S - tea found
Execute Norway, check Moment - no tea found
Execute Datisi, check S_S - tea found
Execute S_S - win

[Something_Smart]

i don't see a valid reason to investigate NK at all

That's fair, but there must be SOMEONE that you are okay with revealing isn't the daughter? It benefits us to clear more people and we can add a third person here without any risk of diluting the results.

[Iconeum]

Norwee and SS go on wheat

You should add a third person. Mathematically, if we find tea in a group of three, we execute one of the three while checking Moment or Datisi (if NS is town), and then we execute the scum in Moment/Datisi while checking one of the remaining two, and then we execute the scum in the other group.

It's autowin as long as the daughter isn't guessed.

what you fail to take into account here is that we might hit 3 town

adding a 3rd is *only* autowin IF they aren't all town and IF the TD isn't guessed

there's other scenarios where it's actually beneficial for scum to add a 3rd...

[Something_Smart]

It's beneficial for scum to add a third if that third could have been the daughter and it got ruled out.

So, that's why you should pick the person least likely to be the daughter.

[Something_Smart]

I mean look at it this way. We have to use the investigation mechanic. It benefits us more than it benefits scum.

Right now we have the chance for a free cop result. Unless you accept that using the investigation mechanic (on not previously investigated players) is not worth doing AT ALL after today, there will never be a better opportunity to use it than now.

[Iconeum]

the way i see it is that if I give you a third name now, scum!SS has 1 extra name to cross off the PoE. He knows he's dead anyway.
And having an extra conftown isn't worth all that much imo?

All we need to do is hit a guilTea with the least possible amount of clears

[Iconeum]

I mean look at it this way. We have to use the investigation mechanic. It benefits us more than it benefits scum.

Right now we have the chance for a free cop result. Unless you accept that using the investigation mechanic (on not previously investigated players) is not worth doing AT ALL after today, there will never be a better opportunity to use it than now.

who's arguing that the investigation mechanic isn't worth it?

[Something_Smart]

You!

[Iconeum]

excuse me?